2012 NFL Draft Order - Updated 03/10/12

[burgold]

It's not just Ryan Leaf, but David Carr, Akili Smith, Matt Leinart and quite a few other can't miss bombs. QB is a high risk proposition. That doesn't mean we shouldn't shoot for one... we need to, but it's not a given that even if we had the number one pick that our guy would lead us to glory.

 

[SkinnedAussie]

With Miami winning, we move to 5th. Minnesota will beat us, so we'll be 4th. Panthers will win another game, so that should see us move up to 3rd. If Rams win 2 more, we'll be #2. I highly doubt Indy will win at all, so #2 in the draft is the best we can look at.

Two games that we need to go our way next week. Cards @ Rams & Panthers @ Colts. Rams and Panthers to win.

 

[Neophyte]

You are assuming this team doesn't play like they did today against any of the lesser teams on the schedule or less lucky teams on the schedule. Frankly, if it plays this way the rest of the year, I don't see a game on the schedule that isn't winnable.

Scary, I know.

 

[SkinnedAussie]

We play a lesser team this year?

Hmm, next week @Seattle
Then:
Jets
NE
@NYG
Min*
@Phil

Other than Minnesota, which is the lesser team we play?

 

[Neophyte]

Lesser than the Cowboys? Easy. In fact, the only teams on left on our schedule that can play with Dallas are NE and the Giants, and NE barely escaped with a win earlier this year before Dallas got a running game. Not sure that would happen now. The Giants are probably better than the Cowboys but being a division game...*shrug*...who knows?

The Jets, the Vikes and the Eagles are just not as good as Dallas is.

 

[SkinnedAussie]

I thought you meant a lesser team than the Redskins.

The Eagles are serving it up to the Giants atm, so, if the Giants are better than Dallas, where does that put the Eagles?

 

[Burgundy Burner]

As it stands after this weekend's games...

1. Indianapolis 0-10 .541
2. Carolina 2-8 .514
3. St. Louis 2-8 .568
4. Minnesota 2-8 .572
5. Washington 3-7 .458
6. Arizona 3-7 .476
7. Jacksonville 3-7 .487
8. Miami 3-7 .524
9. Philadelphia 4-6 .507
10. Kansas City 4-6 .507
11. Cleveland 4-6 .514
12. Seattle 4-6 .524
13. San Diego 4-6 .528
14. Tampa Bay 4-6 .534

Some factors that could see the Redskins moving up...

Carolina plays Indy (next week).
Minnesota plays the Redskins.
Jacksonville plays the Colts.
St. Louis plays Arizona and Seattle.
Arizona plays Cleveland and Seattle.
Miami plays Philly and Buffalo.

 

[Skinsfan76]

Not that I think it is going to happen but who would you guys take if we had the 2nd pick. Andrew Luck is going number one to the Colts so who do we take at 2?

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Here are the current draft projections...

1. Indianapolis 0-10 .525
2. Carolina 2-8 .506
3. St. Louis 2-8 .575
4. Minnesota 2-8 .575
5. Washington 3-7 .456
6. Jacksonville 3-7 .475
7. Arizona 3-7 .481
8. Miami 3-7 .519
9. Philadelphia 4-6 .500
10. Cleveland 4-6 .513
11. Kansas City 4-6 .513
12. Seattle 4-6 .525
13/14F. Tampa Bay 4-6 .538
13/14F. San Diego 4-6 .538

Some factors that could see the Redskins moving up...

Carolina plays Indy (next week).
Minnesota plays the Redskins.
Jacksonville plays the Colts.
St. Louis plays Arizona and Seattle.
Arizona plays Cleveland and Seattle.
Miami plays Philly and Buffalo.

 

[Ax]

The "Birthers" can't get what they want, but I guess the "Losers" are.

Pitiful.

 

[Skinsfan76]

I say we win out finish at 7-9 and then somehow pick at #16 again. That worked really good for us last year. I think Kerrigan is going to be one of the cornerstones of our defense for the next ten years.

 

[Ax]

I say we win out finish at 7-9 and then somehow pick at #16 again. That worked really good for us last year. I think Kerrigan is going to be one of the cornerstones of our defense for the next ten years.

Bingo! Draft position has more value as a conversation piece than it does as determining the qualities of a player.

 

[Goaldeje]

All right, so I got interested in seeing how much draft position truly affects selecting a QB. I went and looked at drafting a QB in the first 2 rounds since 2000, and charted the success rate. I grouped QBs into 4 categories: Franchise, Solid, Journeyman and Bust, with the four categories obviously being extremely subjective. I wanted to see the success rate for drafting a QB in the first 5 picks vs the rest of the first round vs the second round. Also, I realize it is a bit early to grade out this year's draftees, but I did it anyways. This group (along with 2010) have the most ability to change their grade, obviously.

2011:
Cam Newton (pick 1) Franchise
Jake Locker (pick 8) based on one game )) Solid
Blaine Gabbert (pick 10) Bust
Christian Ponder (pick 12) Solid
Andy Dalton (pick 35) Franchise
Colin Kaepernick (pick 36) no data


2010
Sam Bradford (pick 1) Franchise (being generous here, assuming his struggles this year are OLine related)
Tim Tebow (pick 25) Solid (whatever. YOU grade him)
Jimmy Clausen (Pick 48) Bust


2009
Matt Stafford (pick 1) Solid (if he could stay healthy...)
Mark Sanchez (pick 5) Journeyman
Josh Freeman (pick 17) Solid
Pat White (pick 44) Bust


2008
Matt Ryan (pick 1) Franchise
Joe Flacco (pick 18) Solid
Brian Brohm (pick 56) Bust
Chad Henne (pick 57) Solid (looked great this year before injury)


2007
JaMarcus Russell (pick 1) Bust
Brady Quinn (pick 22) Bust
Kevin Kolb (pick 36) Journeyman
John Beck (pick 40) Bust
Drew Stanton (pick 43) Bust


2006
Vince Young (pick 3) Journeyman
Matt Leinert (pick 10) Bust
Jay Cutler (pick 11) Franchise
Kellen Clemens (pick 49) Journeyman
Tavaris Jackson (pick 64) Journeyman


2005
Alex Smith (pick 1) Solid
Aaron Rodgers (pick 24) Franchise
Jason Campbell (pick 25) Journeyman


2004
Eli Manning (pick 1) Franchise
Phillip Rivers (pick 4) Franchise
Ben Roethlisburger (pick 11) Franchise
JP Losman (pick 22) Bust


2003
Carson Palmer (pick 1) Solid
Byron leftwich (pick 7) Journeyman
Kyle Boller (pick 19) Bust
Rex Grossman (pick 22) Journeyman


2002
David Carr (pick 1) Bust
Joey Harrington (pick 3) Bust
Patrick Ramsey 9pick 32) Bust


2001
Michael Vick (pick 1) Solid
Drew Brees (pick 32) Franchise
Quincy Carter (pick 53) Bust
Marques Tuiasosopo (pick 59) Bust


2000
Chad Pennington (pick 18) Solid


It appears to me that a top 5 pick generates a franchise QB 5 times (Newton, Bradford, Ryan, Eli, Rivers) out of 14, about 36% of the time. Conversely, you get a bust 5 times (Sanchez, Carr, Vince Young, JaMarcus, and Harrington) out of 14, meaning that the remaining 4 (Stafford, Smith, Palmer, Vick) are either solid or journeymen, not great odds, no matter how you slice it. Granted, I personally feel that with the higher picks come greater expectations, and that certainly has to be factored into things. Realistically, if your team drafts a QB in the first 5 picks, anything less than a franchise QB almost has to be considered a bust, doesn't it? That means, according to my subjective rankings, 65% of the time, you end up with a bust.

During the same time period, there were 18 QBs drafted in the rest of round 1. Out of those 18, only 3 can be considered Franchise QBs (Cutler, Rodgers, and Roethlisburger), or 17%. Solid would seem to be a reasonable expectation, and out of those 18 drafted, 6 attained that status, for 33%, meaning that combined, acknowledging slightly lower expectations for lower first round, you can expect to get either a Franchise QB or a Solid QB exactly 50% of the time, which is not bad.

The second round has Drew Brees and Andy Dalton as the only Franchise QBs out of 15 draftees, for a 13% success rate. More reasonably, one would expect a solid QB, which saw only 2 attain that level. The busts far outnumbered anything else, coming in at 6 for 40%.

A couple of things jump out to me, personally. Having a Top5 pick doesn't guarantee success. I understand the argument that it allows you to pick the guy you want, and not just ending up with someone else's leftovers, but there were plenty of teams who got the guy they wanted and were burned by that pick. Secondly, the rest of the first round may be the way to go. I would guess there is a little less pressure on those players,and perhaps the teams aren't horrible immediately like a team with the number 1 pick is likely to be, allowing the QB to get more comfortable, more quickly.

For the Redskins, there is a lot that can happen between now and April at the Combines and do on. But we have so many holes, if we end up with a top 5 pick, it may be best to trade down to plug some more holes, while finding our next QB a little later in the first round.

 

[Skinsfan76]

As far as evaluating QBs I think you have to consider where they go. Plus you have give them at least a couple of years before you come to a conclusion. If three years from now we are talking about Cam Newton the same way we talk about Vince Young, I wouldn't be shocked and I don't think too many other people would be either. If Andrew Luck goes to the Colts and Peyton leaves town and Indie doesn't fix there O-line or get somewhat of a running game he could bust.

If we draft a guy, it may depend on how Shanny Sr. and Jr handle this new QB.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Disagree on your Carson Palmer ranking - he was a franchise QB before he injured his elbow. If you're considering Cutler a franchise QB, you've gotta call Carson one IMO.

 

[Goaldeje]

Disagree on your Carson Palmer ranking - he was a franchise QB before he injured his elbow. If you're considering Cutler a franchise QB, you've gotta call Carson one IMO.

Yeah, he was one I struggled with. I gave him that ranking because to me, a franchise QB practically guarantees a trip to the playoffs every year, once they get past their learning curve. Without that injury, you're right, I think Cincy makes it most years, and might even have challenged for the Super Bowl. But he got injured, and since then, bleh.

 

[Yusuf06]

B

I think draft position isn't all that important....to a degree anyway.

The NFL is a passing league and seems to be more so every year. With that in mind it seems most GMs have started drafting QBs sooner rather than later. I think we saw this phenomenon in the last draft where the absolute player rankings said we'd be able to pick between Ponder, Dalton and a few other QBs that I can't recall offhand with our 2nd round pick. Instead, by the early 2nd round those guys were all gone.

The fact is that nowadays it's almost impossible to win without a franchise QB. The earlier one drafts, the larger the upside of the guy you do pick. So if you draft a bust, he's a bust. But if you hit, you're golden.

Take Dalton for example. He's a decent QB and will probably have a long career as a middle of the road performer. However, a true franchise QB, or any player taken in the top 5 or 7 picks for that matter, has a much higher upside and should in theory (depending on position) be able to take your team on his back and win almost by himself. At the very least, non-busts taken high generally are very significant difference makers. Given the craptastic nature of our QB situation for the last 10-15 years, having the chance to have a QB of that caliber in a Skins uni is something that I must admit I'm drooling over. If we pick the wrong guy, we sucked anyway. But if we get the right one in the top 3 or 5 picks (in best Keith Jackson voice) "Whoa, Nellie!!"

As for the chances of a bust, that's always there. However much of avoiding that depends on the quality of your F.O. Based on how they've re-tooled the defense, I have confidence in Allahan to get the right guy. So I'm not going to root for us to loose but given what we've seen and our record at this point in the season, I'm not crying much over losses either.

 

[Elephant]

Disagree on your Carson Palmer ranking - he was a franchise QB before he injured his elbow. If you're considering Cutler a franchise QB, you've gotta call Carson one IMO.

And Goal, if you consider Matt Ryan a Franchise QB then Joe Flacco needs to be there as well. Flacco has done as much if not more than Ryan has.

 

[Skinsfan76]

I want us to win out and finish 7-9 but then I think we need to trade up for RGIII. He will need work to become comfortable in a pro style offense but I think he could be really great. I like Tannehill but Griffin ceiling is a lot higher. Use the rest of the draft on the O-line and overpay for a number one receiver and let's get this offense going.
Posted via BGO Mobile Device

 

[Sarge]

We ****ed ourselves with that win yesterday. You pick sixth, you get your QB and don't have to spend any draft picks to get to that postion. You pick 16th and you think all the top QB's are going to be gone by that time, then you have to spend draft picks to move up.