2012 NFL Draft Order - Updated 03/10/12

[Neophyte]

Time to crank up something that has become a late season tradition here at BGO...the NFL Draft order thread for the next spring. As usual, I get my information from Walter Football and will update the current order on Tuesday or Wednesday each week after they update their site.

Here is the current projected draft order for the 2012 NFL Draft as of 03/10/11.

1. Indianapolis (2-14)
2. Washington - from St. Louis (2-14)
3. Minnesota (3-13)
4. Cleveland (4-12)
5. Tampa Bay (4-12)
6. St. Louis - from Washington (5-11)
7. Jacksonville (5-11)
8. Miami (6-10)
9. Carolina (6-10)
10. Buffalo (6-10)
11. Kansas City (7-9)
12. Seattle (7-9)
13. Arizona (8-8)
14. Dallas (8-8)
15. Philadelphia (8-8)
16. New York Jets (8-8)
17. Cincinnati - from Oakland (8-8)
18. San Diego (8-8)
19. Chicago (8-8)
20. Tennessee (9-7)
21. Cincinnati* (9-7)
22. Cleveland - from Atlanta* (10-6)
23. Detroit* (10-6)
24. Pittsburgh* (12-4)
25. Denver* (8-8)
26. Houston* (10-6)
27. New England - from New Orleans* (13-3)
28. Green Bay* (15-1)
29. Baltimore* (12-4)
30. San Francisco* (13-3)
31. New England* (13-3)
32. New York Giants* (9-7)

Washington's current picks for the 2012 draft are #2, #70 (Rd 3), #103 (Rd 4), #110 (Rd 4), #134 (Rd 5), #163 (Rd 6), and #198 (Rd 7). The extra pick in the 4th is from the Jason Campbell trade to Oakland and the lack of a 6th round pick is from getting Jamaal Brown in trade from New Orleans.

Rules for determining draft order may be viewed here.

 

[Elephant]

There is still such a long way to go. We are only one game away from picking 15. This could go any direction.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

'Skins also have an extra 5th rounder with the GooButt trade to NE.

 

[Elephant]

'Skins also have an extra 5th rounder with the GooButt trade to NE.

That was a 2013 pick BB.

 

[Neophyte]

In theory we should have a 6th from MN for McNabb in 2012 but Walter does not have that listed for some reason.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

Taking a look at the teams currently picking prior to the Redskins and what could happen if our guys lose the remainder of their games...

1. Indy will stay in at No. 1.

2. Miami (2-7)
One more win and they hold the tiebreaker against the Redskins. Could continue the winning streak at home against Buffalo this week. Other home games with possible victories include Oakland, Philadelphia, and the season finale with the NY Jets (Jets could rest starters if in the playoffs).

3. St. Louis (2-7)
Rams play Arizona and Seattle (road). They play the 49ers at home in the season finale (49ers could rest starters with being in the playoffs). Will not pick a franchise QB.

4. Carolina (2-7)
Panthers play Indy (this would be enough - they hold the tiebreaker against the Redskins), Tampa Bay twice, and Houston (Leinert is now the starter). Will not pick a franchise QB.

5. Minnesota (2-7)
Could have the tiebreaker if they beat the Redskins. Home games against Oakland and Denver. Will not pick a franchise QB.

 

[Neophyte]

BB - there is no head to head tie breaker for draft order. First tie breaker is strength of schedule with the team with the lower strength of schedule going first.

 

[Burgundy Burner]

I'm having a bad day at BGO. This not bode well for the weekly game.

Bah.

 

[Nobody]

There is still such a long way to go. We are only one game away from picking 15. This could go any direction.

We're also only one game from picking second. There is hope yet

 

[Ax]

Be nice to get some wins just to see the slot worshipers hyperventilate.

 

[Canadian Hog]

We'd be in a much better situation and have a bit more breathing room right now had we not decided to come back vs. the Cardinals, and had we lost in St. Louis. Let's just hope that we don't make things tighter than they need to be by deciding to beat Seattle and Minnesota.

Winning proves nothing at this point. Sports reward teams for being REALLY bad - might as well take advantage of it this year.

 

[Ax]

Which draft position guarantees a hit?

Answer: None of them

It'll be what it is whether I root for it, or not.

Chasing slots is fool's gold. Nothing more.

 

[Boone]

That may be a valid position Ax - but the higher the pick, the more control you have over who you get to choose from. There are no guarantees, you're right - but when you're spending a very high pick, the higher the better.

It ain't rocket science.

 

[Elephant]

So Boone, with the 4th pick in the 2010 draft we had a choice of Trent Williams, Russel Okung, Anthony Davis, Bryan Bulaga or we could have gone with a Guard Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati.

We had our choice, did we choose correctly? I know it's a difficult question to ask since they are all only in the middle of their 2nd year. But you see what I'm saying.

 

[servumtuum]

El, there are risks every time when making a draft choice. There are no sure-fire methods I have ever heard of of guaranteeing even a 75% chance of making a "right" choice-it's basically making bets on probabilities. Nerve wracking I admit but that's just how it is. Even Luck, as admittedly potentially good as he seems to be carries a certain amount of risk with his selection.

 

[Elephant]

El, there are risks every time when making a draft choice. There are no sure-fire methods I have ever heard of of guaranteeing even a 75% chance of making a "right" choice-it's basically making bets on probabilities. Nerve wracking I admit but that's just how it is. Even Luck, as admittedly potentially good as he seems to be carries a certain amount of risk with his selection.

Right! Then why all the hype over losing so we get better picks? I just can't root for losing even if it means we get a higher draft choice because we all know it's chance.

 

[Ax]

If we pick the right guy, it doesn't matter where.

But if we pick the wrong guy, the higher the pick used, the more adverse affect it has on the organization. If we end up with a higher pick, fine. It's probably no better than a 50-50 chance of getting it right anyway. If that. While the higher pick gives you more good ones to choose from, theoretically, remember that it also gives you more busts to choose from too.

In the end, what we fans want, wish, or hope for, doesn't affect the outcome of game. If it did, we'd be undefeated Super Bowl Champions every year.

So then, all it does is make one a fan who wants, wishes, and hopes for their team to win, or lose.
I choose, win.

It ain't Thermonuclear Fusion.

 

[Boone]

So Boone, with the 4th pick in the 2010 draft we had a choice of Trent Williams, Russel Okung, Anthony Davis, Bryan Bulaga or we could have gone with a Guard Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati.

We had our choice, did we choose correctly? I know it's a difficult question to ask since they are all only in the middle of their 2nd year. But you see what I'm saying.

I absolutely concede that, if the Redskins pick the wrong guy (and we may have in your scenario), which slot they pick from doesn't much matter.

I don't think that's really the point though. Let's say that we were convinced one of those other players was 'the guy', and the team ahead of us grabs him. We don't get him. Had we had that slot, we would have. It's not an either/or proposition - the higher the slot the better, and we better make sure we get an impact player there.

I also think, when it comes to QBs, draft slots become exponentially more important. Conventional wisdom (mostly due to guys like Ryan Leaf) is that 'you never know' with a QB. I actually mostly reject that - because in recent history, scouting departments have actually done a pretty damn good job of rating and ranking QBs. There are probably exceptions folks are going to point out to me, but Cam Newton went #1 - and he is clearly the #1 QB from his draft class. I think predicting which college QBs have the physical tools to play at the NFL level has greatly improved.

It's highly likely Luck really is going to prove to be one of the best college QBs to come out of the draft in recent memory. It's not a certainty - but it's very probably given the scrutiny these guys get today, he's the real deal.

So if you throw me a bone and just accept that premise for a moment, even a single draft slot drop up or down can be franchise-history impactful.

Draft position matters - a lot. Of course, if we dick it all up with our selection, well...yeah...then, not so much.

 

[Ax]

I realize the final chapter hasn't been written for these guys. Not by a long shot.

But, to date.

Since 2000, 18 QB's have been selected in the top ten spots.
They have 1 Super Bowl Appearance, with 1 victory. (Eli Manning)
7 known busts (Carr, Harrington, Leftwich, Young, Leinart, and Russell)
1 considered a bust until recently (Smith)
The rest? We'll see

Since 2000, there have been 14 QB's selected from 11-32.
They have 5 Super bowl appearances, with 3 victories.
(Rodgers, Rapistburger, Grossman)
5 known busts (Ramsey, Boller, Grossman, {way to go Rex. SB starter & a bust} Losman, and Quinn)
The rest? Again, we'll see.

It's a crap shoot.

It ain't Aeronautical Engineering.

 

[Elephant]

I absolutely concede that, if the Redskins pick the wrong guy (and we may have in your scenario), which slot they pick from doesn't much matter.

I don't think that's really the point though. Let's say that we were convinced one of those other players was 'the guy', and the team ahead of us grabs him. We don't get him. Had we had that slot, we would have. It's not an either/or proposition - the higher the slot the better, and we better make sure we get an impact player there.

I also think, when it comes to QBs, draft slots become exponentially more important. Conventional wisdom (mostly due to guys like Ryan Leaf) is that 'you never know' with a QB. I actually mostly reject that - because in recent history, scouting departments have actually done a pretty damn good job of rating and ranking QBs. There are probably exceptions folks are going to point out to me, but Cam Newton went #1 - and he is clearly the #1 QB from his draft class. I think predicting which college QBs have the physical tools to play at the NFL level has greatly improved.

It's highly likely Luck really is going to prove to be one of the best college QBs to come out of the draft in recent memory. It's not a certainty - but it's very probably given the scrutiny these guys get today, he's the real deal.

So if you throw me a bone and just accept that premise for a moment, even a single draft slot drop up or down can be franchise-history impactful.

Draft position matters - a lot. Of course, if we dick it all up with our selection, well...yeah...then, not so much.

I understand what you're saying but you've used an interesting example in Cam Newton.

For your Cam Newton, I give you Andy Dalton. Cam's star has diminished some. Andy Dalton still finds himself leading his team to the playoffs and possibly a Division title.

And I think we got caught in the stink of draft order last year when we picked in the 2nd round. I am convinced Shanahan was hoping for someone else to fall to us in the 2nd round before we chose Javaris Jenkins. He looks like he should work out well, but I think they had there eye on someone else.

I am not saying I would not want to control who and where we picked with the order in which we choose in the draft. All I am saying is I do not like the thought of losing, for anything. And, not saying you are, but I refuse to root for this team to lose under any circumstances.