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2011 Tropical Weather Updates

@fivethirtyeight:
Worked up a little model to estimate the economic effects of a hurricane hitting NYC. It ain't pretty. A DIRECT hit on NYC from a Category 4 hurricane could be a ~$200B disaster, the model thinks, similar to Japan tsunami.
 
Lanky, are they talking about Irene doing that kind of damage or simply doing what Shepherd Smith did by sensationalizing the situation?

You know darn well the likelihood of a cat 4 ever making it past Maryland along the Eastern Seaboard is remote since the water temps rarely get warm enough for a storm to maintain that sort of strength as it travels north.
 
5pm EDT update.

Hurricane Warning up for coastal NC. Hurricane Watch from Virginia Beach to Sandy Hook, NJ. This includes much of the Chesapeake Bay and the Delaware Bay. Tropical Storm Watch for the upper Chesapeake Bay region.

No change in wind speed. The winds may increase later tonight and on Friday though.

More to come as we go along.
 
Lanky, are they talking about Irene doing that kind of damage or simply doing what Shepherd Smith did by sensationalizing the situation?

You know darn well the likelihood of a cat 4 ever making it past Maryland along the Eastern Seaboard is remote since the water temps rarely get warm enough for a storm to maintain that sort of strength as it travels north.

Its 538 - he does political & economic models, that's just his thing. Simmer!
 
We're in full hurricane mode here. We've gotten everything at least 18" off the floor here, plus moved all our inventory to higher ground. This morning saying 80-90 mph winds for Tidewater area of VA and water about 8' above normal.

I got supplies before leaving Radford yesterday.
 
The latest update was projecting 11.5-15" of rain where I'm at. Not looking good at all. Our house isn't in a low lying area, but we have a canal about 50' behind us that floods in heavy rain. When Ernesto hit us a few years ago, it dumped 11" and we were within inches of being flooded out through the back door. If we get 15" like they say is possible, we'll be screwed. Good thing we have flood insurance :)
 
The storm has weakened a bit and that is a good thing. But the problems center on the size of this storm. The Outer Banks and SE Virginia will still get a lot of damage and flooding.

We'll still get strong winds for about twenty-four hours up here (35 to 70 mph with a few gusts to hurricane forrce). But the rains totals have really increased. The Delaware River could see all time records. Predictions of twelve to fifteen inches of rain is still in the forecast, but now some reports are saying some spots could receive around twenty inches.

Sandbagging continues at the complex here and they should finish by later this afternoon. Either way, I'm thinking that we will lose power for a day or so.

Be safe everyone.
 
Its 538 - he does political & economic models, that's just his thing. Simmer!

Did you just tell me to simmer?

I question the use of sensationalizing a storm as it approaches and you tell me to simmer?
 
Did you just tell me to simmer?

I question the use of sensationalizing a storm as it approaches and you tell me to simmer?

Yes, I just told you to simmer. Maybe the joke would have come through better if I'd said "SIMMAH! SIMMAH DAWN NAW!"

And you questioned quite vehemently. :)
 
Did you just tell me to simmer?

I question the use of sensationalizing a storm as it approaches and you tell me to simmer?

Also, its not sensationalizing a storm if its a valid model. 538 is a very respected analysis site, so I would assume his model is correct.
 
Also, its not sensationalizing a storm if its a valid model. 538 is a very respected analysis site, so I would assume his model is correct.

I am not questioning the validity of the model, I am questioning the timing of disclosure. At a time of a dangerous hurricane, there is no need to sensationalize the event. People need to be aware and prepare themselves, not get panicked by models of what "could" be. This causes hysteria and that is what Shepherd Smith and his ilk do. We do not need to know what a Cat 4 hurricane will do to NYC right now when the storm will no longer be a hurricane by the time it reaches NYC.

And you say it is joking, but you are smart enough to know that a "joke" doesn't transfer well in written word without the use of smiley's. And please don't suggest I should have known better, that's just disingenuous.
 
I am not questioning the validity of the model, I am questioning the timing of disclosure. At a time of a dangerous hurricane, there is no need to sensationalize the event. People need to be aware and prepare themselves, not get panicked by models of what "could" be. This causes hysteria and that is what Shepherd Smith and his ilk do. We do not need to know what a Cat 4 hurricane will do to NYC right now when the storm will no longer be a hurricane by the time it reaches NYC.

Maybe if Katrina had been more "sensationalized," more people would have evacuated?

I think you are muddling up sensationalism with responsible reporting. Sensationalizing the hurricane would have been if 538 had said "HURRICANE IRENE TO CAUSE $200 BILLION DOLLARS OF DAMAGE! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES, WHILE YOU STILL CAN!!!!" No, they put out an economic model that measured the impact of a cat 4 direct hit on New York City, which regardless of what you say I should "know darn well" is possible, is one of the possible outcomes of this storm.

And you say it is joking, but you are smart enough to know that a "joke" doesn't transfer well in written word without the use of smiley's. And please don't suggest I should have known better, that's just disingenuous.

LOL, dude - I used the word "simmer" - that's a joke in itself. Now I am not joking: calm down. You are overthinking this thing and are now venturing into personal insult territory. This is not the Asylum!
 
I think you are muddling up sensationalism with responsible reporting. Sensationalizing the hurricane would have been if 538 had said "HURRICANE IRENE TO CAUSE $200 BILLION DOLLARS OF DAMAGE! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES, WHILE YOU STILL CAN!!!!" No, they put out an economic model that measured the impact of a cat 4 direct hit on New York City, which regardless of what you say I should "know darn well" is possible, is one of the possible outcomes of this storm.

Please explain to me how this could go from a Cat 2 Hurricane in the Carolinas to a Cat 4 when/if it hits NYC? While anything is possible, the likelihood of this storm reaching NYC as a Cat 4 is about as remote as you starting in place of Jarvis Jenkins for the Redskins. It ain't gonna happen.

So, if the chances of there being a Cat 4 hurricane are so very slim, close to impossible, then why mention it? What viable use could there be to mention it? Bloomberg is doing a pretty good job of preparing the City for this storm and he has not once mentioned it "could" be a Cat 4.


LOL, dude - I used the word "simmer" - that's a joke in itself. Now I am not joking: calm down. You are overthinking this thing and are now venturing into personal insult territory. This is not the Asylum!

This attitude right here is why I consistently get messages from numerous members of this board who wonder why I defend you to them as often as I do. You have a sense of superiority over others and you don't even seem to realize it. I am tired of defending you Jaimie. Maybe the members who tell me you are aloof are right and I am wrong for defending you to them. Your superiority is only in your own imagination Jaimie. You're just a little above average like the rest of us.
 
Please explain to me how this could go from a Cat 2 Hurricane in the Carolinas to a Cat 4 when/if it hits NYC? While anything is possible, the likelihood of this storm reaching NYC as a Cat 4 is about as remote as you starting in place of Jarvis Jenkins for the Redskins. It ain't gonna happen.

At the time of the tweet, it was still a Cat 3 I believe, with some models showing it hitting the OBX & beyond as a Cat 4. There were some models that showed it hitting NYC as a Cat 4. As of now (as I posted, mind you) there's only a 10% chance its even a hurricane when it hits NYC.

So, if the chances of there being a Cat 4 hurricane are so very slim, close to impossible, then why mention it? What viable use could there be to mention it? Bloomberg is doing a pretty good job of preparing the City for this storm and he has not once mentioned it "could" be a Cat 4.

Because its interesting? Informative? Because I thought others would find it so? Because I never expected to be attacked for posting it?

This attitude right here is why I consistently get messages from numerous members of this board who wonder why I defend you to them as often as I do. You have a sense of superiority over others and you don't even seem to realize it. I am tired of defending you Jaimie. Maybe the members who tell me you are aloof are right and I am wrong for defending you to them. Your superiority is only in your own imagination Jaimie. You're just a little above average like the rest of us.

Well, I'm not sure how you get "aloof" & a "sense of superiority" from that last paragraph, but I hope you & the "numerous members" of this board feel better for calling me out publicly. In the future though, if you have a problem, I would appreciate it (and I'd imagine the rest of the board would as well) if you sent me a Private Message. Its pretty childish to do so in this manner.
 
That's weird. Didn't get the message that Aunt Flo was visiting.

:) (for El - just imagine me in a dress)
 
To be fair, El doesn't usually get visits from Aunt Flo so he wasn't expecting it either. ;)

("Sense of superiority" intentional in this post)
 
Ready to get through this storm! I got my water and cookies and will be picking up some beer tonight. The only thing I'm worried about at my apt is losing power. Thankfully I have a couple battery powered camping lamps and 2 laptops + some books which should provide some entertainment. Well, that and keeping my boyfriend from venturing out to go storm chasing...

They've been ordering more evacuations around here, including some areas of Queen Anne's County, MD.

I'm a bit worried about my parents as they are in Williamsburg, VA. Luckily they don't have any large trees in their neighborhood. If their power is out for a prolonged period of time hopefully they can head to either of my bros' houses, and I'm sure their neighborhood association will be helpful (the live in one of those gated 55+ communities).
 
I'm worried about my pops also, he's out near Boone in the NC mountains. I don't think it will reach that far, but I'm not 100% sure.
 
My folks live in Williamsburg also Ren. They are coming to out tonight or tomorrow to stay with us. My wife's folks live in Wburg and they are staying to brave it out. I think they will be OK. Isabel was so damaging last time because the ground was already somewhat saturated, so the water had no place to go, plus the trees came up out of the ground easier because of the soft earth. Conditions aren't quite the same this time, I think folks will be fine.

And yes, if they live in Ford Colony or Two Rivers, they will be fine. ;)
 

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