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2011 Tropical Weather Updates

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Burgundy Burner said:
The track shifted ever so slightly to the west and will pass directly over Virginia Beach if this path holds. VB would be subjected to 115 mph winds according to the latest models.
Click to expand...
Oh goody, lucky me :doh1: **** hurricanes. It's looking like my prediction a few days ago of it going up the bay might actually happen.

The biggest wildfire the area has ever seen, the biggest earthquake the area has ever seen, and the strongest hurricane to hit the area in my lifetime. Overall, shaping up to be quite the ****ty week.

It doesn't help that my Aunt keeps telling me god is just teaching me a lesson :laugh:
 
Irene is now a Cat 3 with 115 mph winds. No other changes at this time. Updates coming at 11am EDT.
 
11am EDT update:

No changes in strength.

Track is a bit further to the east. Outer Banks takes a direct hit and Long Island and New England take a direct hit.
 
Winds have increased to 120 mph.

No other changes at this time. Update coming at 5pm.
 
Just looked at the latest projected path and this storm looks to gain strength to a Cat 4 as it leaves the Bahamas. As it makes it's way north, it is projected to lose strength to a Cat 3 before making landfall in the Outer Banks, but the water temps are hot enough all the up the coast to allow this storm to keep it's strength.

If I lived in the Outer Banks. I would be prepping for an evacuation. I won't mess with a possibly Cat 4. Cat 3 I can live with, but Cat 4 is too dangerous.
 
A cat 4 will make a man out of you. A cat 3 will make you question whether deciding to stay was such a good idea :laugh:
 
Seriously. It's like all these idiots that throw hurricane parties. I'm always secretly hoping that if anything gets destroyed, it's only their stuff. I never celebrate a situation that will kill people, ruin lives and destroy property.
 
The track is a little more to the west again and the models continue to trend in this direction as well. The Outer Banks, Virginia Beach, Hampton Roads, Delmarva, Jersey Shore, Long Island, and New England need to monitor closely.

Winds are the same. Updates as we go along.
 
Only one change at this time - wind speed at 115 mph. Look for strengthening today.

Read the first paragrpah in my previous post - it still applies. You should start to monitor the progress of this storm. You should start to plan accordingly.

Update at 11am EDT.
 
The game has changed.

Outer Banks - it is time to evacuate or board up and find the safest place to stay.

Virginia Beach. Think Isabel and more. This will be devastating. Start making the preparations today.

Delmarva. See Virginia Beach.

New Jersey. The shore will need to be boarded up AND evacuated. South Jersey - expected hurricane conditions with extensive damage. Many large trees will fall. Extensive flooding. Dam bursts and washed out bridges. Central Jersey - see South Jersey.

North Jersey, NYC region - Tropical storm conditions with extensive flooding and trees down. Dam bursts and washed out bridges.

New England, Hudson River Valley region - Gusty winds, extensive flooding, trees down, dam bursts, washed out bridges.
 
The Navy is moving ships out to sea. Langley AFB will be flying their jets to various locations. Ditto for NAS Oceana in Virginia Beach.
 
My boss showed me a great portion of NOAA that has their updated models

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

  • click on MODEL GUIDANCE
  • Model Area should be NAMER (default)
  • Model Type click GFS
  • The Available Model Cycle to the right should default, it is the most recent
  • in the Upper Air Parms section select 500_vort_ht
  • in the Forcast Hours click Loop All
Right now it looks like it's going to skirt the MD coast, but the Bay could pull it further West...
 
That's right. Navy always does this before a probable strike.

QPF for this area is showing 12 to 15 inches of rain on Sunday. I need to be out in the bogs helping the farmers with sand bags and boarding. Rotten time to have my MS acting up. But tomorrow is going to be busy around the condos here - we live on a creek and the bagging has begun. It will take about two days to get it all in place.

An earthquake and hurricane all in the same week. Think I'd feel safer out in San Diego. :)

For those who need to prep - do it now.
 
Man, I had taken a break form any major news channels for 6 weeks but have been watching to see where this storm is going. I was just watching Shepherd Smith on Fox and this guy is such a tool! He is claiming armeggedon for NYC and every time he comes up with a conspiracy like Manhattan being covered in water from a storm surge, the weather expert he has on shoots him down. Does that stop him? Nope! He continues to talk about these "models" he has seen that suggest the worst case scenario. Well, those models are from totally different scenarios than Irene.

I am not trying to minimize the seriousness of this storm, I have lived through storms like this in South Florida where we were prepared. I am not sure the people of the Mid-Atlantic are ready for this like we were down there so I see tremendous damage in the future if this storm stays on the path it currently is on.

Batten down the hatches people. I live in between Baltimore and DC and I am considering boarding up my windows.
 
Certain things I am positive will happen from Irene...

1. At least one of my two trees is coming down. They both lean anyway, and have most of the roots above ground.

2. I am going to lose most or all of my fence, because it's mostly held together by spit and glue at this point anyway.

3. The main road out of my neighborhood floods in a heavy thunderstorm, so these rains will bury it.

4. A lot of my ignorant neighbor's garbage will end up all over my yard. He's one of those guys with a Sanford & Son yard littered with junk, and two huge trashcans that are overstuffed. I know he has no intention of bringing any of it in, because he's already left for Baltimore.
 
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