The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[philibusters]

I'm not guaranteeing or assuming anything, more making a point. Not directed at anyone in particular, but it seems there's been such a focus on "you can't draft x position at y pick." I see those sentiments and I wonder why not? If Love or Styles are, and turn out to be, the best players in the draft, why would take a lesser player because of a need at a "premium position?"

Plenty of GM's think the same and trade up cause they are sure in their evaluations. You just have to be sure you are right. I would rather play the odds than my gut. If you pass up on Saquan Barkley for Montez Sweat its a very mild loss. If you pass up on Josh Allen (the edge from Jacksonville) for Travis Etienne is a pretty big loss and Etienne is a good player.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Carnell Tate 4.53--mildly disappointing because the times have been fast this year, but not terrible. Brennan Thompson 4.26, Zavion Thomas 4.28, Byrce Lance 4.34, and De'Zhaun Stribling. To me Stribling is the biggest winner of that much as I knew the others were fast and their fast 40 times didn't necessarily answer my questions..

I think its fine the way he plays, but if he hit the 4'4s it would feel like he has a higher ceiling. But sticking to the Devonte Adams comp, it fits that mold.

 

[KDawg]

I think the board is swooning over Love like a 13 year old girl after boy band crush.

I think the board is being a little irrational about RB value — especially in the context of the Commanders at 7. Jeremiah Love’s rookie deal would be roughly $9M AAV over four years. A top 5 RB right now makes about $13M AAV. That’s only a ~$4M annual delta. Meanwhile, a top 5 WR or EDGE is making $30M+ per year. Even a top 15–20 guy at those premium positions is in the mid-20s. The surplus value math just isn’t the same. Drafting a WR or EDGE at 7 gives you massive cost control relative to the veteran market. Drafting a RB doesn’t — because the veteran market for RBs is already depressed. The scarcity argument cuts against drafting a RB that high. Good RBs are available every year in free agency. They’re available on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft. There are probably 80–100 backs in the league you’d feel fine plugging in if the OL and passing game are good. The position has a relatively flat value curve. That is not true at WR or EDGE. Last year showed Washington exactly that — you can’t just grab replacement-level players at premium spots and expect acceptable outcomes. At EDGE and WR, scarcity and price both spike hard.

For Love to justify pick 7, he has to be more than “good.” He basically has to be Bijan Robinson / Christian McCaffrey / Saquon Barkley level — a true top 3–4 RB who tilts defensive structure. Because if he’s merely the 8th–12th best back in football, the ROI doesn’t separate enough from what you could acquire later or in free agency. Meanwhile, if you draft the 18th–25th best WR or EDGE on a rookie contract, you’re still likely getting strong surplus value relative to the market. I like Love as a player. I just don’t like the economics of RB at 7. The positional value curve and the cap landscape make the threshold for success at RB dramatically higher than at premium positions. And unless you’re convinced he’s a true outlier, that’s a hard bet to justify.

I think you are too concerned with minmaxing our draft pick and too in the weeds analytically as it pertains to a football team that is lacking talent and needs game breakers to help its franchise quarterback.

We all have our opinions.

 

[philibusters]

I think its fine the way he plays, but if he hit the 4'4s it would feel like he has a higher ceiling. But sticking to the Devonte Adams comp, it fits that mold.

It doesn't change anything. I had him at about 4.5 flat. Obviously there were guys I underestimated like Sadiq and Washington and it slightly changed my perception of them. But Tate ran .03 slower than I was expecting. He is a good route runner with good hip sink. He is great on vertical plane, nice releases, great ball tracking, elite at the catch point. He is not a true seperator, but I think he is still good. I still him as a high #2 low end #1 and the 4.53 didn't change anything for me. If it means its more likely he falls to #7 than today was a good thing.

 

[skinsinparadise]

As for Jeremiyah Love

I think the board is swooning over Love like a 13 year old girl after boy band crush.

I think the board is being a little irrational about RB value — especially in the context of the Commanders at 7. Jeremiah Love’s rookie deal would be roughly $9M AAV over four years. A top 5 RB right now makes about $13M AAV. That’s only a ~$4M annual delta. Meanwhile, a top 5 WR or EDGE is making $30M+ per year. Even a top 15–20 guy at those premium positions is in the mid-20s. The surplus value math just isn’t the same. Drafting a WR or EDGE at 7 gives you massive cost control relative to the veteran market. Drafting a RB doesn’t — because the veteran market for RBs is already depressed. The scarcity argument cuts against drafting a RB that high. Good RBs are available every year in free agency. They’re available on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft. There are probably 80–100 backs in the league you’d feel fine plugging in if the OL and passing game are good. The position has a relatively flat value curve. That is not true at WR or EDGE. Last year showed Washington exactly that — you can’t just grab replacement-level players at premium spots and expect acceptable outcomes. At EDGE and WR, scarcity and price both spike hard.

For Love to justify pick 7, he has to be more than “good.” He basically has to be Bijan Robinson / Christian McCaffrey / Saquon Barkley level — a true top 3–4 RB who tilts defensive structure. Because if he’s merely the 8th–12th best back in football, the ROI doesn’t separate enough from what you could acquire later or in free agency. Meanwhile, if you draft the 18th–25th best WR or EDGE on a rookie contract, you’re still likely getting strong surplus value relative to the market. I like Love as a player. I just don’t like the economics of RB at 7. The positional value curve and the cap landscape make the threshold for success at RB dramatically higher than at premium positions. And unless you’re convinced he’s a true outlier, that’s a hard bet to justify.

The swooning is because he's seen as elite. You say he needs to be a Bijan, Christian, Barkley as if that's something wild. I am old enough to recall the hype about all those backs, and its similar to Love.

He can run, pass block, catching the ball, he has high intangibles, he's only 20 years old. He's seen by so many draftniks and apparently some scouts too as the best back in the league.

It feels like his floor is J. Gibbs. This team needs game changers on both sides of the ball, he seems like the most obvious one in the top 10 in the range of our pick.

 

[skinsinparadise]

It doesn't change anything. I had him at about 4.5 flat. Obviously there were guys I underestimated like Sadiq and Washington and it slightly changed my perception of them. But Tate ran .03 slower than I was expecting. He is a good route runner with good hip sink. He is great on vertical plane, nice releases, great ball tracking, elite at the catch point. He is not a true seperator, but I think he is still good. I still him as a high #2 low end #1 and the 4.53 didn't change anything for me. If it means its more likely he falls to #7 than today was a good thing.

I'd be thrilled with Tate at 7. I got a slight lean right now for Love.

Seems like Tate feels good about his meeting with Wash.

 

[philibusters]

I think you are too concerned with minmaxing our draft pick and too in the weeds analytically as it pertains to a football team that is lacking talent and needs game breakers to help its franchise quarterback.

We all have our opinions.

I feel differently and similar to probably how you feel about David Bailey. I think Love is a good enough player. In terms of pure prospect, I have him Styles, and Downs in a top tier. But I don't think he would be a good pick. I know you like Bailey as a pass rusher but think he would be a bad pick.

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[Higskin]

Disappointed Tate is going through the passing drills

 

[clskinsfan]

Just sitting here watching more tape on Love. I like him. But not as special as I thought he was. Positives are an incredible first cut int he backfield. Elite at it. And an elite burst after the first cut. Solid breakaway speed. But I am not sure it is elite. Very good hands. Not sure what he can do in pass protection. Because he never did it in college. RED FLAG. Some DAWG but not what I am looking for in a starting RB. Not saying he is soft though.

He is pretty much like every other first round player in this draft. Not elite. This is what this draft is. Stacked against the rest of the class I am still taking Downs every single time.

 

[Riggo44]

Plenty of GM's think the same and trade up cause they are sure in their evaluations.

And that's really what it comes down to--GMs making proper evaluations. From what I've seen and read (for the record, not directed at you, specifically) Love and Styles appeal more than the pass rushers available at 7. I don't think Bailey will be there, and I see some questions about his game. I really don't like Bain.

I don't want to turn my nose up at a game changer because of a "need"

Also for the record, I could be completely full of shit and wrong.

And also also for the record, I'd take Barkley 1000 times over Sweat--which is kind of where I'm at. Barkley is a borderline MVP, Sweat is a good DE. Barkley impacts the game more, in my opinion.

 

[Higskin]

 

[DogofWar1]

Tate at 4.53 is a good time for him. Great time even, for him.

Rumors were he was gonna run in the 4.6s or so. 4.53 is plenty fast for the NFL. Not burner speed, not exactly Terry in that capacity, but he'll hold up just fine in the NFL.

He's definitely in the mix at 7, though he might get snagged earlier. Was and is getting mocked top 6 a lot.

 

[clskinsfan]

Yeah. He won the pajama Olympics. Watch his tape.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Love can get skinny in the hole with the best of them, use his contact balance and elite burst and break free.

 

[philibusters]

Tate at 4.53 is a good time for him. Great time even, for him.

I don't know if I would go that far.

 

[clskinsfan]

Love can get skinny

I generally respect your takes SIP. Does his lack of pass pro in college concern you? It does me. Because they generally kept him off the field in long passing situations because of it. If he cant pass protect he is a failure at the NFL level before even showing up at camp.

Edited this to say that the entire first round roster is about the same though. Question marks everywhere.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Been months since I watched Love. But the criticism has led me to start diving back in.

This isn't me going through highlights, this is just a game. You give him some space on the perimeter and he's gone. But even with trash at his feet, his vision, and ability to get skinny in the hole, he can make something out of nothing. By reputation, he's a decent run blocker, I saw one good block so far, the rest of the time they had him run routes on passing downs.

I'll rewatch at least a few more. But watching this USC game, wow player.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I generally respect your takes SIP. Does his lack of pass pro in college concern you? It does me. Because they generally kept him off the field in long passing situations because of it. If he cant pass protect he is a failure at the NFL level before even showing up at camp.

Edited this to say that the entire first round roster is about the same though. Question marks everywhere.

I am hoping the just the tape site on you tube gets to Love. I am sure they will, they typically do the top WRs and RBs. And they will include pass blocking. By reputation and lol his own bragging, he's good at it. But I'll find my way to see it and judge.

 

[bowhunter]

I generally don't like spending top 7 picks on a RB. Still would prefer Downs and getting a good RB via FA. There, I said it.
But, I also remember how much I hated the CP trade all off season until Portis peeled off that long TD run on his first carry.

So now I'm OK with Downs, Styles, Tate, and...Love. (but in that order)