The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[philibusters]

In terms of receivers, Jeff Caldwells testing was off the charts (4.31 at 216 pounds), but his issue is that he is considered unmotivated. That said some team may overlook the motivation issues. Zachariah Branch measured in shorter than expected at 5'8.5 but maybe a hair faster than I was expecting at 4.35. Skyler Bell was 192 pounds (listed at 185) so a little thicker than I was expecting. Germie Bernard 4.48 got sub 4.5. Omar Cooper got a 4.42 which is pretty solid.

 

[DogofWar1]

Well, I think that’s the way it is for all first round top ten talents. If you draft them you better be right. Damn right. I don’t see why Love is different than Tate there. If you’re wrong on either you will lose your job as a GM.

If you take Styles or Downs and they bust and Love and Tate pop… you’re fired.

We also have FA and I anticipate a major push for some weapons at receiver.

Well but there is a bit of a margin of error for other higher value positions.

A high level #2 edge or WR is still gonna be a solid 20-25M acquisition and also a very valuable piece on an offense or defense, since you need two of those guys anyway.

And it's also much harder to find high level edges/WRs later in the draft and in FA.

The NFL is littered with really good but not elite RBs, they hit FA all the time. And you can find really good RBs later in the draft too.


But so long as Love is elite, its all moot.

There is no way this front office and staff will come into the season without another legit WR. They will get dragged by everyone if they do. That's not a major concern for me. I don't know who it will be but you can tell that a major mindset for them is helping Jayden succeed in every way after last season. The future of the Franchise mainly depends on that sole issue and it seems like they recognize that they failed in that regard last season in every way.

ehhhhhhh kind of a major concern for me.

The pool of "legit" WRs (that is, solid #2 or better) available in FA is pretty small.

Pickens franchised. Colts trying to figure out how to keep Pierce. Pitts (not WR but similarly valuable) franchised. Deebo, Hill, and Evans all solidly on the wrong side of 30 (also Deebo can't stretch the field enough to save us as we saw). Aiyuk coming off a major injury (as are Hill and Evans).

Basically all that's left out there who is 1) sub-30, and 2) not coming off a major injury (and also 3. isn't a MASSIVE head case) is Jennings, Robinson, Shaheed, and Doubs. And some of those aren't downfield threats (Robinson).

I'm optimistic we land one and then also add a Likely or Okonkwo to help too, but until we actually do, it's definitely a bit concerning that all that stands between a top 10 offense and a bottom 10 offense is a 31 year old Terry McLauren.

 

[Gooseneck]

Mocks are having Love go earlier than 7, now. hope New York Giants do not get him

 

[philibusters]

I think the board has gone bit off track. I would love for the Giants to use a top 5 pick on Love. The last time they used a top 5 pick on the RB, they hit big in Saquan Barkley and went nowhere. Do they have the QB, O-Line, and OC to maxmize a premium running back. No.

 

[Riggo44]

 

[Ashburn Dave]

Sonny was a bad ass in the Godfather, so another reason to love Styles, I guess. But will the NFL allow him to use Sonny on his jersey or is this another 'Bill' situation?

All in for Love, Downs, or Styles at 7.

 

[KDawg]

I think the board has gone bit off track. I would love for the Giants to use a top 5 pick on Love. The last time they used a top 5 pick on the RB, they hit big in Saquan Barkley and went nowhere. Do they have the QB, O-Line, and OC to maxmize a premium running back. No.

What do you mean the board has gone off track?

And wishing for the Giants to get Love is a bold strategy.

 

[Conn]

Sonny was a bad ass in the Godfather, so another reason to love Styles, I guess. But will the NFL allow him to use Sonny on his jersey or is this another 'Bill' situation?

All in for Love, Downs, or Styles at 7.

First names are never on jerseys, what do you mean?

 

[Conn]

Love doing all the drills, including the receiving drills and stuff, even though he knows he’s going high (especially after that 40)…I respect it. He’s a competitor

 

[Riggo44]

I don’t think it makes a difference here. A bust is a bust. I know, AAV and min max and all of that.

I don’t care about any of that right now with this team. Draft a good football player. That’s it.

An all pro running back is more valuable than a mediocre defensive end.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Tate in the low 4'5s a little better but similar to Devonte Adams. Sort of fits what I thought but wasn't sure.

That gives an edge to J. Love for me if picking between the two.

 

[Whiskeypeet]

Tate in the low 4'5s a little better but similar to Devonte Adams. Sort of fits what I thought but wasn't sure.

That gives an edge to J. Love for me if picking between the two.

Also makes it a bit more likely Tate drops to 7. That time probably means its not a foregone conclusion he’s drafted before our pick.

 

[skinsinparadise]

What do you mean the board has gone off track?

And wishing for the Giants to get Love is a bold strategy.

Yeah I am not rooting for another team let alone one in our division to get Love. Barkley almost single handidly broke this team in 2024 including in the playoffs. He tortured this team when he was with the Giants, too.

Heck in the playoff game against the Lions, they couldn't stop J. Gibbs, thankfully the Lions stopped giving him the ball.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Among that 2nd tier group of WRs, Bernard, and A. Williams had good times considering how they play, high floor WRs IMO.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Also makes it a bit more likely Tate drops to 7. That time probably means its not a foregone conclusion he’s drafted before our pick.

Agree. I think he might be there at 7.

 

[philibusters]

What do you mean the board has gone off track?

I think the board is swooning over Love like a 13 year old girl after boy band crush.

I think the board is being a little irrational about RB value — especially in the context of the Commanders at 7. Jeremiah Love’s rookie deal would be roughly $9M AAV over four years. A top 5 RB right now makes about $13M AAV. That’s only a ~$4M annual delta. Meanwhile, a top 5 WR or EDGE is making $30M+ per year. Even a top 15–20 guy at those premium positions is in the mid-20s. The surplus value math just isn’t the same. Drafting a WR or EDGE at 7 gives you massive cost control relative to the veteran market. Drafting a RB doesn’t — because the veteran market for RBs is already depressed. The scarcity argument cuts against drafting a RB that high. Good RBs are available every year in free agency. They’re available on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft. There are probably 80–100 backs in the league you’d feel fine plugging in if the OL and passing game are good. The position has a relatively flat value curve. That is not true at WR or EDGE. Last year showed Washington exactly that — you can’t just grab replacement-level players at premium spots and expect acceptable outcomes. At EDGE and WR, scarcity and price both spike hard.

For Love to justify pick 7, he has to be more than “good.” He basically has to be Bijan Robinson / Christian McCaffrey / Saquon Barkley level — a true top 3–4 RB who tilts defensive structure. Because if he’s merely the 8th–12th best back in football, the ROI doesn’t separate enough from what you could acquire later or in free agency. Meanwhile, if you draft the 18th–25th best WR or EDGE on a rookie contract, you’re still likely getting strong surplus value relative to the market. I like Love as a player. I just don’t like the economics of RB at 7. The positional value curve and the cap landscape make the threshold for success at RB dramatically higher than at premium positions. And unless you’re convinced he’s a true outlier, that’s a hard bet to justify.

 

[philibusters]

An all pro running back is more valuable than a mediocre defensive end.

But you are making two huge assumptions. That we can know that love will be an all pro RB, in the tier of CMC, Barkley, Robinson, and Henry.

Two you are assuming the Edge we draft is just mediocre. Sure Bijan Robinson is more valuable than Dorrence Armstrong (who I really like), but assuming you are getting a Bijan and Armstrong is making big assumptions. When people say if you draft Jeremiah Love you better be right, that is what they mean. He has to be in a top 3 or 4 all pro level player to make it worth that pick.

 

[RWJ]

Standing firm on Downs or Bailey at #7 or trade down.

 

[Riggo44]

But you are making two huge assumptions.

I'm not guaranteeing or assuming anything, more making a point. Not directed at anyone in particular, but it seems there's been such a focus on "you can't draft x position at y pick." I see those sentiments and I wonder why not? If Love or Styles are, and turn out to be, the best players in the draft, why would take a lesser player because of a need at a "premium position?"

 

[philibusters]

Carnell Tate 4.53--mildly disappointing because the times have been fast this year, but not terrible. Brennan Thompson 4.26, Zavion Thomas 4.28, Byrce Lance 4.34, and De'Zhaun Stribling 4.36. To me Stribling is the biggest winner of that much as I knew the others were fast and their fast 40 times didn't necessarily answer my questions..