The 2025 Draft Thread

Yes, there are plenty of examples of players who were taken around consensus not working out. However, the studies folks have done show that the odds are better a pick works out if a pick is taken around consensus. The "wisdom of the crowds" is a real thing. A lot of the folks who build mock drafts have inside information that never reaches the public about prospects. It's not just folks like Daniel Jeremiah and Mel Kiper who get this information but, as we learned through the draft process, even nobodies like the guy from NC who Logan had on his draft pod a bunch of times get plenty of inside information that informs what they do in their mocks.


Totally fair, but I also wonder how much their consensus differs from what we all see as the masses. There are thousands of mock drafts out there compiling up to create a consensus big board. Some of them live largely within the scope you reference, but a lot likely dont as well. I really would love to see what their board was line for line, and the changes / adjustments made that went into a particular pick. Was Lane the guy, or did they have their eye on another guy that was already gone, and he was more of a 'fit' than others you may have mentioned. Those others might have graded 'better' but they had questions about longevity and / or compatibility.

A lot of this is all my own personal opinion btw so I'm not trying to be contradictive in it all.. There's more than one way to build a championship roster, if there was a sure fire way to do it, everyone would do it...
 
I agree completely about everything except your first sentence.

I don't want my front office being 'swayed' by the consensus, so they should have no fear about 'going against' it. I want them to have their own board, much of which will likely align with other football minds, but if they think Conerly is worth 29 overall, then they take him. That's also not to say they believe he's the 29th best player. They may have him rated in the 40s, but because of multiple factors including whos is gone that they expected to be their, when their next pick is, what they're hearing about the direction of the draft to come... etc. Conerly so far appears to be 'inferior' pick to Simmons, but Simmons is coming off an injury that ended his season in October, was there concern there? Their board might have had Conerly at 35, but because of the landscape they picked him 'early'..

My first sentence basically means I don't mind the approach about going against consensus. But if its a habit show that you are right over time operating that way,

Even with Ron, I went along for the ride of him going against consensus, even when early returns looked bad, and lol often when he went against what i wouud have done, but eventually it snowballed where I just didn't trust that he knew better over time. Because proof started to compile that consensus >>> Ron.

On another board Hail Raiser can attest to this point because he felt the same way -- I gave Ron plenty of rope. Until that last off season where there were just too many decisions that I disagreed with. And he lost the benefit of the doubt from me from his previous bad calls.

lol, I recall I was even made fun of when i posted on draft day as Gonzalez was falling down in the direction of Washington's pick that I'll have a stroke of Ron doesn't pick him. And then when he went with Forbes, some were on me, goofing on whether i am OK suggesting dude you were wrong about Gonzalez the proof is in the pudding and that is Ron took Forbes so clearly that means Gonzalez isn't all that I think he is.

And look its not that I preferred Gonzalez is some sort of tribute to my drafting takes. :) I was just with the consensus on that including most fans I know who follow the draft.

And no doubt Peters has way more pedigree than Ron. And knows a lot more about football than me and any fan. So I'll give him like I did Ron some leeway on this.

And often there is nuance to these decisions. I don't really have any big beefs with Peters drafting so far. For example its possible that they might have preferred Simmons as a plug and play tackle. But they are thinking longer term. Also Simmons has had some character questions and injury issues. Conerly I believe is younger, has been durable and is high character. So that one I get. I don't think it was that straight forward. I did have McCaffrey ranked as a 6th rounder when I did rankings on another board. They took him in the late 3rd. But that doesn't bother me either. It's not easy to hit on late thirds and if Peters was sold on McCaffrey's intangibles, he knows the family, etc -- I get the thought process. In the last draft there were a bunch of RBs I would have grabbed earlier in theory. But Lane was one of my favs. I am good with the pick in the 4th. Croskey-Merritt i pushed on the draft thread on day 3 a lot, and they took him, so am happy with that.

Overall, i am happy with much of what Peters did. The main thing I don't love is the Lattimore trade. I got it at the time. But i would have cut him lose in the off season and signed a FA CB. One of the things that makes Roseman really good at his job is he cuts his losses and admits defeat. Not saying Lattimore is a bust. But its not trending well. Will see.
 
At least Amos looks like a home run.

I think on first blush this draft has some promise.

A. Conerly. i get the Simmons > Conerly thought. I never studied Simmons so i don't have my own take on it. But the narrative is different on the two players. Simmons I believe is playing his natural spot at LT. Conerly is learning a new spot, playing RT. And I hear that's not easy.. Simmons is a year older. Conerly has had a tougher assignment so far. Also Conerly has much bigger positive marks for durability and character.

I am good as to benching Conerly for the next game because its against Crosby. But its not because am out on him. Tackles tend to take time.

B. Amos has been good so far. And that is a good sign considering corners tend to struggle early.

C. Lane has been really good with punt returns. Hasn't done much yet as a WR. But has had a good camp. High intangibles. So far i lean positive.

D. Medrano. Nothing so far. Will see. What's the success rate of late 6th rounders, like 5%?

E. Croskey-Merritt -- could be the #1 back. Very promising.
 
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I think the picks in 2025 of Conerly and Amos are fine and a lot less problematic than what we did in 2024.

Remember with the Newton pick we took a player coming off a structural, weight bearing injury. He then broke another toe and had to have another surgery.

Other 2024 picks in Sinnott and McCaffrey could be passed by Yankoff and Jaylin Lane.

That’s not a great return to date on those stockpiled picks we got for Sweat and Young from the previous period.

If we had managed the board better in 2024 we could have come away with a younger skilled receiver that would have made the trade for Deebo unnecessary.

We also might have ended up with a legit edge rush prospect which more than a year later remains a gaping hole.
 
Totally fair, but I also wonder how much their consensus differs from what we all see as the masses. There are thousands of mock drafts out there compiling up to create a consensus big board. Some of them live largely within the scope you reference, but a lot likely dont as well. I really would love to see what their board was line for line, and the changes / adjustments made that went into a particular pick. Was Lane the guy, or did they have their eye on another guy that was already gone, and he was more of a 'fit' than others you may have mentioned. Those others might have graded 'better' but they had questions about longevity and / or compatibility.

A lot of this is all my own personal opinion btw so I'm not trying to be contradictive in it all.. There's more than one way to build a championship roster, if there was a sure fire way to do it, everyone would do it...

Another meta thought here is that the consensus board matters more in the NFL than any of the major sports. Why?

- Sheer number of analysts involved. One guy knows one nugget, another guy knows another, etc. These guys also see each other during the combine and other draft events and compare notes

- In the NFL, the youngest players getting drafted are 21 and you have at least a couple years of film to work off of (assuming redshirt) with most being older than this and having much more film. The public analysts have a lot more data to work off of with these players so their opinions are generally smarter. In the NBA, it is tough for the public analyst to really assess a 17 year old playing in the 3rd league in Spain and project what that means in the NBA. It is a similar dynamic in the MLB with 18 year olds coming straight from high school and even the college stars from the SEC need a lot of work in the minors. The GMs in those sports can generate a lot more alpha for their teams vs the replacement level GM or the public/consensus (baseball more so where the bonus pool adds another layer of complexity to draft strategy)
 
I think the picks in 2025 of Conerly and Amos are fine and a lot less problematic than what we did in 2024.

Remember with the Newton pick we took a player coming off a structural, weight bearing injury. He then broke another toe and had to have another surgery.

Other 2024 picks in Sinnott and McCaffrey could be passed by Yankoff and Jaylin Lane.

That’s not a great return to date on those stockpiled picks we got for Sweat and Young from the previous period.

If we had managed the board better in 2024 we could have come away with a younger skilled receiver that would have made the trade for Deebo unnecessary.

We also might have ended up with a legit edge rush prospect which more than a year later remains a gaping hole.

We might have ended up with our starting LT for this year without having to give a cadre of picks away for Tunsil (Patrick Paul has a 72 PFF grade through a couple games so far)
 
Coming from a dude who wants to bench Conerly, not permantenty but for this upcoming game.

I am not really down on that pick at all. Some of Ron's picks going against consensus came off insane. Picking a CB who would be the first in NFL history to succeed at that size versus a dude cut out of a Marvel movie playing the same position. Going for a weakside LB -- non premium position, who only started one year in college and then seeing him as your Mike LB -- instead of a touted LT, playing a premium position, etc. Touting the buffalo nickle and its value to death -- yet passing over a generational Buffalo nickle type who some thought was a top 4 player in the draft. Just flat out crazy stuff.

Conerly. Just 21 years old. Good arm length. Freakish athletcisim. Great durability. Great character. A dude your offensive coordinator loved after watching and begging you to draft him. Versus a 22 year old LT, coming off a major injury with character concerns.

Picking Conerly over Simmons isn't nuts. That's not a Rivera style move. I haven't watched Simmons so I don't have a personal take. I do recall Logan Paulsen and Sikemma from PFF loving Simmons. But it didn't come off superficially as a slam dunk decision. And a major disadvantage Conerly has versus Simmons is a tougher run of edge players to face to start and he had to switch positions. So its not apples to apples. And usually players with injury-character concerns that stuff doesn't always blow up immediately, it often takes some time to manifest.

Also context matters. Jaylin Lane didn't have big stats. His QB and that scheme was terrible. I wouldn't have watched him if it were not for watchig Todd McShay's draft videos, he loved him. He was a fun watch, i talked about him in the draft thread. But yeah in the late 4th grabbing colleges best punt returner with 4.3ish speed came off fine to me. I liked the pick. I think so far so good with him.
 
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I was a fan of the Lane selection. He gave an immediately needed upgrade at PR with dynamic potential. He gives Kliff a weapon that he should be creating plays around to get the ball into his hands, he is a legit threat to take it to the house. This team has lacked that and now we have him and Deebo! He was taken a round later than Luke and already as productive only 2 games into a young career
 
Coming from a dude who wants to bench Conerly, not permantenty but for this upcoming game.

I am not really down on that pick it all. Some of Ron's picks going against consensus came off insane. Picking a CB who would be the first in NFL history to succeed at that size versus a dude cut out of a Marvel movie playing the same position. Going for a weakside LB -- non premium position, who only started one year in college and then seeing him as your Mike LB -- instead of a touted LT, playing a premium position, etc. Touting the buffalo nickle and its value to death -- yet passing over a generational Buffalo nickle type who some thought was a top 4 player in the draft. Just flat out crazy stuff.

Conerly. Just 21 years old. Good arm length. Freakish athletcisim. Great durability. Great character. A dude your offensive coordinator loved after watching and begging you to draft him. Versus a 22 year old LT, coming off a major injury with character concerns.

Picking Conerly over Simmons isn't nuts. That's not a Rivera style move. I haven't watched Simmons so I don't have a personal take. I do recall Logan Paulsen and Sikemma from PFF loving Simmons. But it didn't come off superficially as a slam dunk decision. And a major disadvantage Conerly has versus Simmons is a tougher run of edge players to face to start and he had to switch positions. So its not apples to apples. And usually players with injury-character concerns that stuff doesn't always blow up immediately, it often takes some time to manifest.

Also context matters. Jaylin Lane didn't have big stats. His QB and that scheme was terrible. I wouldn't have watched him if it were not for watchig Todd McShay's draft videos, he loved him. He was a fun watch, i talked about him in the draft thread. But yeah in the late 4th grabbing colleges best punt returner with 4.3ish speed came off fine to me. I liked the pick. I think so far so good with him.
yes I agree totally here.
We look at the stats, and we look at how crazy it is. If we can understand some threads of reasoning, it's fine. However, over time, you'd like to see some positive pattern if you keep breaking consensus. This is totally reasonable to me.

As fans, we have opinions and critique, that's fine. He has more data, more time on task, and a different opinion? Of course it's fine, but if there is Rivera level crazy (break consensus frequently, reasoning threads hard or impossible to see, constantly underperforming selections) then yes, we have a major and obvious problem. I think even with somewhat less than that crazy, we can have concerns. We aren't in that area as far as I can see.

The closest issues are, and I think we all mostly agree here: (1) Sinnott and (2) McCaffrey.

Sure there are other complaints like kicker, but in that area again, you see some reasoning being employed. It's not like highly drafting a long snapper.
 
Picking Conerly over Simmons isn't nuts. That's not a Rivera style move. I haven't watched Simmons so I don't have a personal take. I do recall Logan Paulsen and Sikemma from PFF loving Simmons. But it didn't come off superficially as a slam dunk decision. And a major disadvantage Conerly has versus Simmons is a tougher run of edge players to face to start and he had to switch positions. So its not apples to apples. And usually players with injury-character concerns that stuff doesn't always blow up immediately, it often takes some time to manifest.


Agreed, most are overreacting. This reminds of when we drafted Trent instead of Russell Okung. Let it play out.
 
Agreed, most are overreacting. This reminds of when we drafted Trent instead of Russell Okung. Let it play out.

Yeah its an example of betting on athleticism. I recall the arguments well. Okung was the smoother more refined "pro ready"player. I recall Gil Brandt trashing them for taking Trent saying it made no sense when Okumg was to him the next Chris Samuels.

Trent was a young, athleltic freak. You are betting on traits. Conerly isn't a Trent level athletic freak. But its a similar idea -- betting on upside. As far as Simmons goes, if i didn't hear he was a knuckhead type, I'd have bothered watching him. But once I heard that it felt like he wouldn't be on the radar of this team.





Josh Conerly is a freak athlete, but he's the hardest worker in our room'​


“We've seen some special tackles here in our short time here and in the past,” Terry said. “The best part about Josh Conerly is he’s a freak athlete, but he is the hardest worker in our room. And what does that do for everybody else? If one of your best players in your room is your hardest worker, it becomes contagious.”
 
The thing I'm critical about is our resource spending. We spent what? 5 picks on LT? Why trade 4 picks for a LT if you're not resigning him and if you are resigning him, why use a 1rst on another LT?

That's what I don't like. I do like Conerly.

As far as Sinnott, people are acting like he should be producing like Warren is, but was drafted where Loveland was. He's a second year day two player at a tough position guys don't usually launch into the league at. Sure, I'd like to see more and I'm assuming we will with Bates out. Etrz will be out soon enough, but the whining about being a bust is too much, too soon.

LMC was basically a day 3 pick. The supplemental picks are always long shots. I don't mind betting on his physicals, intangibles and pedigree.

I could easily see Sain being our CB2 soon enough once Lattimore gets hurt again. He did great last year outside. If we've landed 2 solid CBs with day two picks, that's impressive.

I'm critical for sure and not convinced AP, DQ, White or KK are the future, but I'm not about to flush the toilet yet. It's going to take a long time to fix this roster and grow our own talent and I just don't want to see draft picks traded away
 
I don't see a late #3 pick as a long shot into left field of Yankee Stadium.

Do I think that player should be a Day 1 starter or even a starter in Year 1?

No, that's probably asking too much.

But remember we drafted Jamison Crowder in Round 4 in 2015 and he came in and made a nice contribution as a rookie and by Year 2 was acclimated to the NFL as a regular contributor on offense.

My problem with McCaffrey is it is hard enough to come into the NFL at your NATURAL position and be successful, but when you start talking about guys that have to transition or are in the process of learning a new position to me the odds of him being successful go down markedly.

What McCaffrey is missing IMO when I see him is not a lack of athleticism or intelligence, but rather a lack of comfortability and instincts playing WR.

He doesn't have that natural fluidity you see with Lane in the limited reps we have seen of him so far for example.
 
The thing I'm critical about is our resource spending. We spent what? 5 picks on LT? Why trade 4 picks for a LT if you're not resigning him and if you are resigning him, why use a 1rst on another LT?

That's what I don't like. I do like Conerly.

As far as Sinnott, people are acting like he should be producing like Warren is, but was drafted where Loveland was. He's a second year day two player at a tough position guys don't usually launch into the league at. Sure, I'd like to see more and I'm assuming we will with Bates out. Etrz will be out soon enough, but the whining about being a bust is too much, too soon.

LMC was basically a day 3 pick. The supplemental picks are always long shots. I don't mind betting on his physicals, intangibles and pedigree.

I could easily see Sain being our CB2 soon enough once Lattimore gets hurt again. He did great last year outside. If we've landed 2 solid CBs with day two picks, that's impressive.

I'm critical for sure and not convinced AP, DQ, White or KK are the future, but I'm not about to flush the toilet yet. It's going to take a long time to fix this roster and grow our own talent and I just don't want to see draft picks traded away
Everyone is entitled to criticism and there is a lot of sense in what you said, but I think the prevailing understanding is that the team wanted to try to strike while the iron is hot.

One of my friends always mocks the Nats for shutting Strasburg down many years back and then losing in the playoffs. They were looking out for his long-term health is what they said (and I believe), but his point was it is SO hard to win a World Series. You can't take it for granted.

Here, coaches get pilfered, players' contracts are what they are... lots of moving parts. So I do think, they felt that if they shored up the OL they may be able to set up a bit of an offensive juggernaut based on what they were able to put together last year. It hasn't panned out in the amazing sample size of 2... in 5 days of play.

So, I think they went into the 2024 draft thinking, we have to be patient. I think 2024 went on and then it was like, uhhh forget patience.... hence Lattimore and this past offseason (Deebo, Tunsil, etc.).

Once again, even though I probably disagree with a lot of the execution... I get the thinking. Especially if you believe in Kliff a lot (which I do not, especially not in the postseason+SB).
 
I don't see a late #3 pick as a long shot into left field of Yankee Stadium.

Do I think that player should be a Day 1 starter or even a starter in Year 1?

No, that's probably asking too much.

But remember we drafted Jamison Crowder in Round 4 in 2015 and he came in and made a nice contribution as a rookie and by Year 2 was acclimated to the NFL as a regular contributor on offense.

My problem with McCaffrey is it is hard enough to come into the NFL at your NATURAL position and be successful, but when you start talking about guys that have to transition or are in the process of learning a new position to me the odds of him being successful go down markedly.

What McCaffrey is missing IMO when I see him is not a lack of athleticism or intelligence, but rather a lack of comfortability and instincts playing WR.

He doesn't have that natural fluidity you see with Lane in the limited reps we have seen of him so far for example.

I agree. His measurables are good but he looks like a stiff athlete. It’s one thing to be a raw route runner but he seems like a very straight line guy, which can work on returns. Not that he has zero wiggle, but it just isn’t fluid. Which is weird because he has that same insane 3-cone (6.7) that brought Edelman to Belichick’s attention as a serious athlete and position convert candidate. Edelman’s was even crazier (6.62) but still. Every athlete is different but Luke doesn’t make things look easy, and for a guy drafted in part due to his measurables that’s imo a problem.

A combine warrior is gonna have a much tougher time. If he was a 6’4” straight line downfield threat, being raw would be better and the upside and path to relevance is more clear. Like Donte Thornton who the Raiders took in the 4th, raw but won a starting outside job due to his physical skills. And who will likely posterize Lattimore this weekend. I get the vision on a pick like that. McCaffrey is he hits? He’s a slot guy, you can draft a ready to go slot guy (like Crowder whom you mentioned) and it’s okay that he’s not an insane athlete, that position is about finding the holes in zone coverage, making yourself a target, and catching the ball.

I just don’t see the vision from AP on this pick other than he really wanted a work ethic like McCaffrey’s in the locker room. Which I respect but it’s a bit rich for a top-100 pick.

Of course the hit rate on those 3rd round comp picks is low but there was a lot of talent on the board at that point. We were all surprised
 
If we hit someone for hey look at this other dude they got one year at that round or some other team got-- you are going to fail by those measures.

Every team is going to find every now and then a great pick at any round. But stastically speaking once you get past the 2nd round, your pick is more likely to fal than succeed. That's not theory. There are studies on that.

So yeah for me I am not really hung up on any round. for me its the full picture. I don't even care if you miss in the first round, if you nail a pick later in the draft and that makes up for it. There is some randomness and crap shoot aspect of drafting.
 
If we hit someone for hey look at this other dude they got one year at that round or some other team got-- you are going to fail by those measures.

Every team is going to find every now and then a great pick at any round. But stastically speaking once you get past the 2nd round, your pick is more likely to fal than succeed. That's not theory. There are studies on that.

So yeah for me I am not really hung up on any round. for me its the full picture. I don't even care if you miss in the first round, if you nail a pick later in the draft and that makes up for it. There is some randomness and crap shoot aspect of drafting.
I agree but circumstances such as legit scout teams, solid ownership/GM/coaching relations and younger and/or more talented active roster can enhance teams success rate. That puts decision makers on a similar path and always the team to not force picks going more BPA or capability of moving to get specific talent that best fits

Oh, and you must admit SIP, the board is pretty darn good. We have a better track record than the 10 year pre-AP Redskins/WFT/Commanders! ;)
 
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I agree but circumstances such as legit scout teams, solid ownership/GM/coaching relations and younger and/or more talented active roster can enhance teams success rate. That puts decision makers on a similar path and always the team to not force picks going more BPA or capability of moving to get specific talent that best fits

Oh, and you must admit SIP, the board is pretty darn good. We have a better track record than the 10 year pre-AP Redskins/WFT/Commanders! ;)

We've had a good run of picks. Some misses. too Specific to Peters, I remember all the posts on the QB thread where some people who are smart (so no knock on them) were saying they wanted to be sold on Jayden but the deeper they dive in to his game, the most concerned they are about him and Maye easily should be the pick.

Heck I've gotten some wrong in my day, but not that one. I loved both players. But there weren't a lot of people with me as to loving both. And that whole thought process alone, the draft thread would have hampered this team's success arguably as to the SB window I think we are in.

I got some bad ones of course myself. I recall loving the Paul Richardson signing. I recall thinking Chase Young walks on water among other things. :)

But I think most of us would have avoided Ron's big misses. Most of us (me included) wanted Darrisaw, and thought Jamin Davis was more of a 2nd rounder type. Most of us (me included) loved Kyle Hamilton and also had Dotson as a 2nd rounder. Most of us (me included) would have taken Gonzalez and also had Forbes as a 2nd rounder type talent. Pre-Ron some of us (me inlcluded) thought Haskins (RIP) was a bad pick. On and on.

So yeah I think we can easily outwit Ron as to his FO and any of Dan's instincts. As to Peters, that remains to be seen. But he's a real professional with years of scouting background. So I don't think we will have too many shake our head moments with him. but will see.

But heck he at a mimimum outwitted (or so it seems so far) everyone on the board at QB. And there is nothing more important than that decision. He not only loved Jayden but thought he was the best player in the draft. For that alone, he's got all of us beat.
 
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Yeah, when you see a team take a 166 pound corner with the #16 pick you definitely have questions.

At that point in the draft you should not be drafting for development, but rather for a near finished prospect that is ready to come in and contribute right away.

As I mentioned in another thread, it's not necessarily WHERE a GM gets young talent from but the fact he GETS IT.

Beathard used to regularly miss on #2 picks from Wally Kleine to Tory Nixon but he made up for it by finding starting players in the same draft in the mid to late rounds.

If we do that here and we see a Javontae Jean Baptiste come on and be a regular contributor and McCaffrey ends up being a mistake, that to me is OK.

Where we run into trouble is when we have 9 picks and we see both the late rounders Hampton and Baptiste bust out and then see high picks like Sinnott, McCaffrey and potentially Newton be part-timers or bench/depth players.

The numbers working that way don't add up to a team that is building to propel Daniels forward and put this team in a position to be a Eagles type team that we have seen from 2022-2025 being a consistent contender.

I understand the need to fill in veterans at some slots given where Rivera left us but these should be coming down over time through shrewd drafting and signing of UDFAs as well as younger veteran free agents.

With the picks and opportunities to sign players I just think we should be a little further along in seeing some younger players emerge.

For example, through 2 draft cycles and free agent cycles I would have expected Washington to find a younger DE to rush the passer and obviate the need to always reach out to the waiver wire or street free agent market to find starters/depth players.
 
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