The All Things Terry Thread

[Discobob]

On the subject of young receivers starting to wonder if a team may tank for Jeremiah Smith in the 2027 draft. Can't remember a team doing this for a non qb but he may the one. Joel Klatt called him recently the greatest college player he's ever seen. PFF is rating him as one of the greatest receivers they've ever scouted. Very high chance this kid goes top 2.

He looks amazing, but any GM that tanks for a WR should be immediately fired! A little different if he "tanks" once the season goes off the rails, but going into the season? That'd be crazy!

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

AJ Brown scares me, Terry McLaurin does not. I’m not so sure that DCs need to game plan to take Terry away. They may, I’m just not so sure of it.

As with most things in football, AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, whoever you want to talk about - it depends on who YOU have in YOUR toolbox too. It also depends on what kinds of plays are being called for you.

I think McLaurin, after last year, DOES scare a lot of DCs. Does he scare the Eagles? Possibly not. That is a HUGE problem in this conversation he is having. I think the Commanders look (rightly or wrongly) at games like that and establish value there. I think that game (and certainly games before, but that game may have put it over the top) may have shaped a lot of the Commanders offseason - OL focus, DL focus, Dante Fowler lower priority, there are a lot of things that are justified by many of the second half of last year, but in particular you look at that Eagles NFCCG and you can see a straight line to what they did. That may also speak to the Eagles' gameplanning to our weaknesses, but it's roughly the same thing too. I am not saying that McLaurin is a weakness at all, but if you want to be #1, it's OK to lose some battles against Quinyon Mitchell, but you can't be taken out of the game. I don't remember the breakdown of targets/receptions against Mitchell or how all of the plays went, but I do remember some big plays where Terry couldn't make the play. I don't think it was Terry's fault on those plays as much as Quinyon playing lights out Defense though (there are some defensive plays where any number 1 receiver can't make the catch; not saying I remember it clearly enough, but I remember some pretty amazing D played by Mitchell on a couple of really good throws and good positioning by Terry). So, again, it really depends on how you consider the full picture.

 

[RexTomb]

If Terry continues to overvalue himself and gets out over his skis, he's going to find that all the good will he accrued with the fans may just evaporate at a head spinning rate. As we are starting to learn more about the negotiations, he's asking for more than DK, which he doesn't deserve. Hoping we reach a compromise, but I am losing my optimism.

 

[lovemaskins]

As with most things in football, AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, whoever you want to talk about - it depends on who YOU have in YOUR toolbox too. It also depends on what kinds of plays are being called for you.

I think McLaurin, after last year, DOES scare a lot of DCs. Does he scare the Eagles? Possibly not. That is a HUGE problem in this conversation he is having. I think the Commanders look (rightly or wrongly) at games like that and establish value there. I think that game (and certainly games before, but that game may have put it over the top) may have shaped a lot of the Commanders offseason - OL focus, DL focus, Dante Fowler lower priority, there are a lot of things that are justified by many of the second half of last year, but in particular you look at that Eagles NFCCG and you can see a straight line to what they did. That may also speak to the Eagles' gameplanning to our weaknesses, but it's roughly the same thing too. I am not saying that McLaurin is a weakness at all, but if you want to be #1, it's OK to lose some battles against Quinyon Mitchell, but you can't be taken out of the game. I don't remember the breakdown of targets/receptions against Mitchell or how all of the plays went, but I do remember some big plays where Terry couldn't make the play. I don't think it was Terry's fault on those plays as much as Quinyon playing lights out Defense though (there are some defensive plays where any number 1 receiver can't make the catch; not saying I remember it clearly enough, but I remember some pretty amazing D played by Mitchell on a couple of really good throws and good positioning by Terry). So, again, it really depends on how you consider the full picture.

I get the analysis but that’s roster building, which is a GM function. If I’m Terry’s camp I can’t take a discount because the Eagles built a juggernaut on defense and offense. Part of what makes AJ Brown and Slim Reaper so good is they’re both so good together plus adding Saquon in the backfield.

It’s a pick your poison offense. Remove Saquon and Slim and AJ Brown is doubled and bracketed and his effectiveness go down. That was us last year to an extent, but Jayden was so nasty passing and running, he became the force multiplier himself.

Adding Deebo, a bigger better Oline, and hopefully much improved running game, Terry will now play more iso ball… He’s a nightmare one on one. Can still take the top off and runs elite routes.

The Eagles absolutely bracketed Terry with Mitchell, great corner with help… yeah that’ll take Terry away. That’ll take most receivers away. The Eagles forced Dyami Brown to beat them, hell I could’ve developed that gameplan.

Without Terry defenses can squeeze down for the gadget stuff and defend the scramble, Terry stirs the drink until we find his replacement. Thus their demands… but he’s not worth $35M…

 

[Bigwig]

This whole conversation is ridiculous. Terry is under contract this year (Age 30) and can be franchised next year (Age 31), which sets his CEILING that he can ask for.

I mostly agree with this post. If the team pays McClaurin full market value for the next two years, that’s something like $10M+ extra that would be better spent on the rest of the team going forward. For example, I assume the team will want to extend Tunsil, who is actually elite, plays a more important position, and is less likely to diminish in his thirties.

Plus, it sets a bad precedent to extend a player under threat of holdout without getting something significant in return. The precedent they have already begun setting, especially at WR, is that Washington is no longer the place to get overpaid.

I would just add that the team could reasonably exceed the ceiling you identified, especially if McClaurin would agree to team-friendly terms after 2026. There is some value in avoiding the distraction of the acrimony with a well-respected player, not to mention the potential holdout, if you think the team is a serious contender for the trophy.

Also, the team may prefer to keep the franchise tag in reserve for negotiations with other players.

 

[mistertim]

I'm not sure we could even trade Terry right now, unless there's a team out there that's willing to seriously overpay him. I'm sure we could likely get a 2nd+ for him, but then he'd want to negotiate a contract with a team who wants him, and I'm guessing most teams would balk at paying a 30 year old very good but not elite guy as a top 2 or 3 WR.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Tanking for anything other than a QB makes no sense. Even then is kind of a hard sell to the coaches and players as their jobs/careers can be hurt from a tank job, unlike the NBA where everything is guaranteed and you can't get cut.

A good player going on IR in the NBA is fine next season. A good player going on IR in the NFL is labeled as injury prone and their next contract can be just a cheap 1 year prove it deal.

A GM known for intentionally tanking is going to be tough to get agents/players/coaches to want to be on that team afterwards.

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

I'm not sure we could even trade Terry right now, unless there's a team out there that's willing to seriously overpay him. I'm sure we could likely get a 2nd+ for him, but then he'd want to negotiate a contract with a team who wants him, and I'm guessing most teams would balk at paying a 30 year old very good but not elite guy as a top 2 or 3 WR.

Its either or. We can't get a second for him with his contract demands. That pushes the draft value down to 3rd or 4th. No team is trading for him without talking to him about his contact demands.

If he had another year left on his current deal then I think a 2nd is more likely.

 

[method man]

Its either or. We can't get a second for him with his contract demands. That pushes the draft value down to 3rd or 4th. No team is trading for him without talking to him about his contact demands.

If he had another year left on his current deal then I think a 2nd is more likely.

We could probably get a 2nd and there is likely a bad team no one wants to go to like JAX who would be willing to overpay him

 

[Chris]

Doesn’t Jax have Brian Thomas Jr and now possibly Travis Hunter at WR?

I think NE would be the most likely destination. They need him and have tons of cap space.

 

[mistertim]

Doesn’t Jax have Brian Thomas Jr and now possibly Travis Hunter at WR?

I think NE would be the most likely destination. They need him and have tons of cap space.

Yeah I think NE would actually make sense. They have a promising young QB, just upgraded a bunch of other positions with FAs, and still have tons of cap space, so they may be more willing to overpay.

 

[bifflog]

Dreams of a 2nd are just that, dreams. He's worth more to us on an expiring deal and a year of franchise tag than the picks we'd get for him.

And I just cannot imagine he will Leveon Bell himself. Just don't see it.

 

[Anselmheifer]

All of this makes sense if Terry’s camp acts rationally.

But if he decides to hold out and come in after Game 8 to get credit for playing the league year it means Washington would be playing without him through much of a difficult schedule.

People may not think he will hold out into the season but how many people at the end of last year anticipated a guy with 1096 yards would be asking for top 5 money?

Significantly more than $33M?

McLaurin makes Hendrickson’s requests look reasonable given Trey’s league leading statistics.

The reason I indicated Washington could give his camp the ability to seek out a deal is I don’t believe anyone else is going to give him $33M plus as part of a potential trade deal.

KC traded a better player in Tyreek Hill after a Super Bowl and Mahomes continued to be productive with other receivers to win two more and counting.

Terry is not holding out for half the season. He’s making $15 million in salary I think. He’d never make back the half he lost and he would make way less the following year in a new contract. If he doesn’t play a whole season and produce at a high level, nobody is giving him a big contract at age 31.

He’s going to hold out for a while and either play on his current contract, or sign an extension that makes sense for everyone

 

[bifflog]

Terry is not holding out for half the season. He’s making $15 million in salary I think. He’d never make back the half he lost and he would make way less the following year in a new contract. If he doesn’t play a whole season and produce at a high level, nobody is giving him a big contract at age 31.

He’s going to hold out for a while and either play on his current contract, or sign an extension that makes sense for everyone

This is largely why this hasn't worked me up that much, because I see no scenario where he doesn't play for us from Week 1. Neither of the options are really bad for us, yeah some underlying bad blood with a key player is not great but he's not gonna take it out on his teammates and I don't see him giving less than 100% in any way. And I still think we meet in the middle somewhere along the way.

 

[prodigy]

We could probably get a 2nd and there is likely a bad team no one wants to go to like JAX who would be willing to overpay him

between Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter, and Dyami Brown, the Jags are not in need of a wide receiver.

ooops...I see other people have already replied with the same response. anyway, to add onto that, they just let go of Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis to get out of bad contracts. they are definitely not looking to take on another overpaid contract with the talent they already have.

 

[mistertim]

Terry is not holding out for half the season. He’s making $15 million in salary I think. He’d never make back the half he lost and he would make way less the following year in a new contract. If he doesn’t play a whole season and produce at a high level, nobody is giving him a big contract at age 31.

He’s going to hold out for a while and either play on his current contract, or sign an extension that makes sense for everyone

Not to mention all of the fines and losing roster/game checks + bonuses he'd have to deal with. And teams have recourse to make sure a player can't simply sit out most of the season and then report for a handful in order to accrue a season of play - just put him on the Reserve/Did Not Report list and it doesn't accrue. And the player can't return to play unless the team agrees to activate him.

So yeah, Terry will almost certainly be playing this year one way or the other. It would be better for everyone if they can come to agreement on a new deal, but if Terry's side is insisting on $34+ million then that just may not happen. In which case he plays this season and then we either franchise him or he walks in 2026.

 

[Bulldog]

Let him play out his contract and then draft his replacement in 2026.

That's the ideal scenario, but again that's based on Terry doing the rationale thing.

We have had guys here like Sean Gilbert that said God spoke to them and told them how much to ask for in a new contract

Looking back at non-quarterbacks that sit out the season, John Riggins seems to be the one that comes to mind that came back and actually matched or exceeded his previous production.

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[tomwvr]

The problem is Terri‘s age. Do I think that Adam peters would have a problem being Terry top five wide receiver money this year? No. next year? Probably not. The problem is if you sign Terri to a three-year extension, the last two years are in his age 32 and 33 seasons. And in all likelihood, Terri will not be a top 5 to 10 receiver in those years.

The way that I would handle it is treated as a two year extension, even if you give him three years. I would fully guarantee this year plus the first year of the extension at around $60 million. Spread that between signing bonus and salary. That fully compensate Terri as a top 5 to 10 receiver for the next two years. And it’s a pretty hefty guarantee. Years three and four of the extension would have many fewer guarantees and the ability for the team to get out of it if they needed to. If they need to keep the salary high in order to boost the AV, that’s fine. But the majority of it should be non-guaranteed.

That means Terri could restructure after two years depending on his production at that point.

The key is maintaining flexibility not this year or next, but going into the 2027 season.

How about Front end load it - give 35 or so first year and 33 second and 30 the third?

 

[tomwvr]

And one thing Terrys agent has to understand is the team can Tag him for 2 years and pay him around 25-27 a season, with no guaranteed money, and he will be 33 when that is over and he wont get the 35 plus he wants and will have lost out on close to 10 million in missing pay from the extension