The 2025 Draft Thread

[Commander Wraith]

Do we assume we trade out of the 1st, dropping down say, 10 spots, to grab another pick or two? Obviously if you think theres one clear star there you take him, but otherwise?

I’d guess they want to, though obviously it takes two to tango. Wouldn’t be surprised if we take less than trade chart value to move back/gain picks.

 

[RWJ]

Example of how AP can trade down with Cleveland and San Fran and acquire more picks:

 

[Skinfanjon]

I do think we need to be cautious at this point of a trade for Hendrickson. We are approaching the point where we will be mortgaging our future with too many picks thrown at him.

Generally my view on picks is
1st/2nd round - immediate impact players ideally
3rd round - somewhere between impact and high probability developmental starters
4th round - high probability developmental starters.

5th onward mostly you have to choose physically imperfect technically sound individuals or physical specimens who have no idea how to actually play football who you hope you can teach how to play.

I don't sweat 5th-7th much at all. Sure it's fun to have 6 picks in 5-7 and when you hit it's awesome, but as a practical matter, it's throwing darts at increasing levels of blindness.

1st-4th tho, is a different story. Esp top 100 picks (so 1-3).

Jayden's cap hit is gonna smack us roughly around 2029ish, assuming we extend before '27 and it's a bit backloaded. Ideally at that point you have a nice conveyer belt of young talent on rookie deals that is taking on starting spots. Something like 3-4 starters from guys in each of years 3-4 of rookie deals, and something like 1-2 from guys in each og years 1-2, giving you between 8-12 starters (of the roughly 28 or so "starter" players you'll field) on rookie deals. You probably pay top dollar for an LT, WR1, Edge, CB1, and then maybe 1 or 2 of TE/RB/DT/MIKE/S but after that you're outta money.

To maintain that kind of conveyer belt of guys tho you need top 100 picks.

In fairness, 2025 picks won't be on rookie deals anymore once Jayden's hits are smacking us, and I think 2026 is the last year we can get away with sending picks away, since 2026 draft picks will be done with their rookie deals following 2029. They are kind of the "first" year where you'd want to hit on a bunch of guys if we assume 2029 Jayden cap hit is large, with them in their 4th year.

But every year after 2026 you really gotta stock up on picks and hit, hit, hit. 2027 guys on deals thru '30, and by that point we will be in cap...well at least purgatory.

The concern for moving picks this year and next year, is that the fewer picks we have now, the more we'll have to fill holes with FAs in 2027/28/29, which sort of is a self-fulfilling situation. You need talent to maintain, and FA is rarely gonna be enough in terms of talent, so you're either doing what we're doing this year, that is, trading for higher tier talent, or drafting, which takes time and is a gamble. And of course the higher tier FAs are gonna want larger and longer deals with more guaranteed money that could, once we hit 2027/28, extend cap hits and dead money into 2030/31.

So I'm good at the moment, but also wary. Moving a 2 and 4 in 26 for Tunsil is "fine" for the return, but could also have some longer term consequences 4-5 years down the road.


Now this does imo make a trade back from 29 a little more likely, maybe moving back and grabbing, say a 3rd this year and a 4th next year, and given some of the talent tiers, that may make sense for us (like if only say, 6 of the 12ish edge guys in the top 45 are gone, we can probably hop back a few spots and still get a great guy).

This is an excellent post. I agree with just about everything you’re saying, but I’m still firmly in the camp that wants to trade a 2 and 4 for Hendrickson. The reason is simple- it’s an elite player filling a huge glaring weakness that makes us a legit Super Bowl contender immediately (IMO).

It’s probably our last year to do the best of both worlds approach of trying to win a SB now *and* build for the future (for reasons you well described), but I think the gamble is worth it. And I’ll further speculate we are the leaders in the clubhouse for Hendrickson. I think it may take awhile but unless someone ups the ante, think he’s here next year.

 

[RedWolf]

5 years of bad drafting from the previous regime is quite evident in the poor roster that AP and DQ inherited. Otherwise we would have more home grown talent and less FAs.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

Top 20 Inside LB’s to my eyes

1. Carson Schwesinger UCLA *At his best in the middle but can do it all, fast processor with outstanding range and cover ability
2. Jihaad Campbell Alabama *Really, really, really good LB and the surest tackler by far in this group. Great blitzer is not a liability in coverage but Carson is better to my eyes. Best in the middle and great blitzer but needs work in the pass rush repertoire
3. Danny Stutsman Oklahoma
4. Barrett Carter Clemson
5. Smael Mondon Jr. Georgia
6. Kobe King Penn State
7. Jay Higgins Iowa *One of my favorite players the last couple years of doing these evals but his poor athletic testing is likely going to hurt his stock. I’m very surprised at the numbers because they do not match the film to my eyes.
8. Demetrius Knight South Carolina *A tad overrated to my eyes as to his overall ranking but the explosiveness is there
9. Shemar James Florida
10. Cody Lindenberg Minnesota
11. Cody Simon Ohio State
12. Jamon Dumas-Johnson Kentucky
13. Chris Paul Jr Ole Miss *Great closing speed
14. Francisco Mauigoa Miami
15. Blake Martin Memphis
16. Nick Martin Oklahoma State
17. Bam Martin-Scott South Carolina *Super underrated to my eyes
18. Nick Jackson Iowa
19. Teddye Buchanan California *Needs to get much better at shedding blocks but very good athlete

Tied: Jeffrey Bassa Oregon *Underrated fast LB * Power Echols North Carolina *Scrappy dude who leaves nothing on the field *Greg Penn LSU

 

[DWinzit]

1. Carson Schwesinger UCLA *At his best in the middle but can do it all, fast processor with outstanding range and cover ability

As always Chump, all your eval time is appreciated.

I am correct that our LB coach Ken Norton was a good knowledge of Carson from his time coaching him at UCLA

 

[Iraolaball]

Top 20 Inside LB’s to my eyes

1. Carson Schwesinger UCLA *At his best in the middle but can do it all, fast processor with outstanding range and cover ability
2. Jihaad Campbell Alabama *Really, really, really good LB and the surest tackler by far in this group. Great blitzer is not a liability in coverage but Carson is better to my eyes. Best in the middle and great blitzer but needs work in the pass rush repertoire
3. Danny Stutsman Oklahoma
4. Barrett Carter Clemson
5. Smael Mondon Jr. Georgia
6. Kobe King Penn State
7. Jay Higgins Iowa *One of my favorite players the last couple years of doing these evals but his poor athletic testing is likely going to hurt his stock. I’m very surprised at the numbers because they do not match the film to my eyes.
8. Demetrius Knight South Carolina *A tad overrated to my eyes as to his overall ranking but the explosiveness is there
9. Shemar James Florida
10. Cody Lindenberg Minnesota
11. Cody Simon Ohio State
12. Jamon Dumas-Johnson Kentucky
13. Chris Paul Jr Ole Miss *Great closing speed
14. Francisco Mauigoa Miami
15. Blake Martin Memphis
16. Nick Martin Oklahoma State
17. Bam Martin-Scott South Carolina *Super underrated to my eyes
18. Nick Jackson Iowa
19. Teddye Buchanan California *Needs to get much better at shedding blocks but very good athlete

Tied: Jeffrey Bassa Oregon *Underrated fast LB * Power Echols North Carolina *Scrappy dude who leaves nothing on the field *Greg Penn LSU

One guy on that list I think is highly underrated, by the media and yourself, is Nick Martin. He played very little this year after injury, but his 23’ tape is dynamite. Led the Big 12 in tackles that year, and was far and away the best defender on that OSU team. I got to watch a lot of him, as my wife is an Ok St. grad. He put on a nice show at the combine too. Looks like one of those day 3 LBs that the 49ers routinely picked, and hit on.

I also like Kain Medrano. Undersized guy, but fast and athletic. Good in coverage, and really good on special teams. Could be a sub package standout against TEs and RBs out of the backfield.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

One guy on that list I think is highly underrated, by the media and yourself, is Nick Martin. He played very little this year after injury, but his 23’ tape is dynamite. Led the Big 12 in tackles that year, and was far and away the best defender on that OSU team. I got to watch a lot of him, as my wife is an Ok St. grad. He put on a nice show at the combine too. Looks like one of those day 3 LBs that the 49ers routinely picked, and hit on.

Could be underrating him for sure.

 

[RWJ]

If we trade back and gather an extra 2nd and 3rd, I'm like the idea of Donovan Jackson as OG and fill in OT is need be. He doesn't have the arm measurements for OT but he could fill in. Seems like he fits our outside-zone blocking scheme.

 

[Bulldog]

I am rooting against Hendrickson trade.

We have traded enough picks IMO for guys around 30.

If he was a free agent and it was only dollars I would be more positive toward the move.

 

[DogofWar1]

Hmm I dunno if dropping down 4 and 14 spots is worth 2 extra 4ths. Could be if their board has impact players through the 4th but I tend to be skeptical of that, usually you start to slide towards more developmental guys.

As wacky as it might sound I might prefer higher picks next year. Like sure, add a second 4th why not, but maybe make one of them a 3rd in 2026.

 

[RWJ]

Well, moving down 4 spots being the 1st pick in the 2nd we'd probably have a slew of teams calling us to move down again. At #33 we'd get a starter, I think and quality player of need. Moving down 14 spots would be something that AP would want to do. The post was just a template showing one of the ways we'd create some draft pick to build the team. AP's got a plan though.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

I also like Kain Medrano. Undersized guy, but fast and athletic. Good in coverage, and really good on special teams. Could be a sub package standout against TEs and RBs out of the backfield.

I like him too watched him a bit looking at Schwesinger but think he will ultimately end up going undrafted. He's likely in my OLB group, which is where I probably should have had Martin, whom I do like.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

I am rooting against Hendrickson trade.

We have traded enough picks IMO for guys around 30.

If he was a free agent and it was only dollars I would be more positive toward the move.

Me too. As another poster alluded to, I don't think the drop off is all that significant in the DE/Edge/OLB group after Day 1 if we trade down, which seems likely IMO. It's a good group.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

As always Chump, all your eval time is appreciated.

I am correct that our LB coach Ken Norton was a good knowledge of Carson from his time coaching him at UCLA

Thanks friend! Much appreciate it. I wish we could land Carson for sure but that's not happening said for a trade down and we get lucky. Bam-Martin South Carolina LB is an older prospect but underrated IMO. I think he'd be a nice addition Day 3.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

Not enough OLB types to bother with because some were included in my inside rankings because most are multi function LB's and the rest in the Edge group.

To my eyes, though I likely missed some, but Walker is easily the standout among them.

Jalon Walker Georgia
Collin Oliver Oklahoma State
Jalen McLeod Auburn
Jackson Woodard UNLV
Josaiah Stewart Michigan
Carson Bruener Washington
Que Robinson Alabama
Kain Medrano UCLA *Really good testing numbers
Kaimon Rucker UNC

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

I think all of our immediate needs have been addressed in FA. We have functional bodies everywhere. Gives us flexibility to go BPA, or lean into areas we're lacking.

WR, Edge, and RB are the most upgradeable spots, but we're not forced into it.

We're set at DT, but if Derrick Harmon or Kenneth Grant are there at #29, it could make sense to pull the trigger. Likewise taking a risk on someone who might not be fully ready to go for off-season workouts, like CB Shavon Revel.

 

[RWJ]

Dumas-Johnson Kentucky LB I like too - going over the Box types now. Demetrius Knight SC LB is rated very high - some have him #3 overall in the group. Not seeing that level from him personally. This is the hardest position for me to nail down and OLB because some should be FT pass rushers and not off ball LB's in my humble opinion

Bam Martin-Scott is super undervalued! Love the guy as you mentioned him in another post. Did you post something on the OGs and which ones fit our scheme. I really like lower level tiered OGs like Garrett Dellinger & Clay Webb.

 

[The Chump Bailey]

Bam Martin-Scott is super undervalued! Love the guy as you mentioned him in another post. Did you post something on the OGs and which ones fit our scheme. I really like lower level tiered OGs like Garrett Dellinger & Clay Webb.

OG's are up next and then 5 tech/43 DE's - just saw we signed Wise. I love that signing he one of my favorites from a few years back. Solid in both run and pass rush IMO. Wise is 30??? Good God time sure flys by. Yeah, I'm not sure why Bam Scott is not higher rated. He's good.

 

[prodigy]

5 years of bad drafting from the previous regime is quite evident in the poor roster that AP and DQ inherited. Otherwise we would have more home grown talent and less FAs.

imagine what our situation would be if we had, at the very least, taken christian gonzales over forbes or chris olave over dotson.