QB or not QB

[tomwvr]

Here are my thoughts on your comments
1) Jayden will be broken within 2 seasons. He gives me RG3 vibes when he runs he gets hit just like RG3 did . I would be afraid to get him due to his running style - his size is good 6'3" but he runs like RG3 who was 6'2" but he has the same body type and will not survive the NFL unless he changes his running style
2) JJ played with the best college talent out there on all sides of the ball, he wont have that in the NFL and his lack of throwing passes in college could hurt him in the nfl - and JJ is on 202
3) Maye is very similar to Howell except he is 6'3" and that will make a big difference in the NFL, he has the body type and arm talent to make it in the NFL and I would put him 2nd of all the QBs and first if you take out the mental weakness of Caleb . From all I have seen Caleb will be the biggest bust since JaMarcus Russell.
4) Nix from what I have seen is a 2 year prospect sitting on the bench to learn
5) Penix has the strongest arm in the draft was throwing 70-75 yard passes at the combine but his injury history and his short- medium game has to be developed to make it in the NFL and Penix being 6"3' 215 makes him less of a risk than Jayden

If we are looking at a 2nd round QB I would take Milton or Rattler as not immediate starters. But If we don't trade down we should take Maye

 

[Bulldog]

Penix has learned the lessons Daniels and the others will have to in re protecting your body, etc.

While the reviews show him to be mobile and quite capable of being a threat in the red zone with his feet, he now picks his spots and runs with a lean rather than straight up and down like he did a couple of years ago - and as Daniels still does.

You put that together with impressive arm strength - he flicked a 45 yard TD pass while off balance being tackled by a DE - and I see a player with upside who like Jonathan Allen is being downgraded because of past injury issues which are not impacting current performance.

 

[Chris]

You don’t think an extra 2-3 years of college play effects a players growth and ability at the QB position?

 

[Bulldog]

Exactly my point. I think Penix is ahead of Drake Maye or McCarthy in terms of his ability to transition to the NFL game in 2024.

My pique was over the fact that some folks thought being 21 or 22 at quarterback instead of 23/24 was somehow a big advantage coming into the draft.

Nothing further could be from the truth IMO.

I remember back to being 20 or 21 and then moving on to things when I was 23 or 24.

A difference in life experience and perspective, as well as maturity.

 

[Boone]

Penix has learned the lessons Daniels and the others will have to in re protecting your body, etc.

While the reviews show him to be mobile and quite capable of being a threat in the red zone with his feet, he now picks his spots and runs with a lean rather than straight up and down like he did a couple of years ago - and as Daniels still does.

You put that together with impressive arm strength - he flicked a 45 yard TD pass while off balance being tackled by a DE - and I see a player with upside who like Jonathan Allen is being downgraded because of past injury issues which are not impacting current performance.

Well, Daniels will have to tear two ACLs until we can compare them, right? I mean - I would hope after 2 ACL tears Penix has 'learned the lessons'

 

[Chris]

Here are my thoughts on your comments
1) Jayden will be broken within 2 seasons. He gives me RG3 vibes when he runs he gets hit just like RG3 did . I would be afraid to get him due to his running style - his size is good 6'3" but he runs like RG3 who was 6'2" but he has the same body type and will not survive the NFL unless he changes his running style
2) JJ played with the best college talent out there on all sides of the ball, he wont have that in the NFL and his lack of throwing passes in college could hurt him in the nfl - and JJ is on 202
3) Maye is very similar to Howell except he is 6'3" and that will make a big difference in the NFL, he has the body type and arm talent to make it in the NFL and I would put him 2nd of all the QBs and first if you take out the mental weakness of Caleb . From all I have seen Caleb will be the biggest bust since JaMarcus Russell.
4) Nix from what I have seen is a 2 year prospect sitting on the bench to learn
5) Penix has the strongest arm in the draft was throwing 70-75 yard passes at the combine but his injury history and his short- medium game has to be developed to make it in the NFL and Penix being 6"3' 215 makes him less of a risk than Jayden

If we are looking at a 2nd round QB I would take Milton or Rattler as not immediate starters. But If we don't trade down we should take Maye

If I may respond-

1. Maybe. I have the same concerns. We’ll see. Daniels played in a much more NFL-like offense than Griffin did and is a much more talented passer. No need to design a RPO heavy scheme in order for him to flourish.

2. He will, at some point, be surrounded with real talent in the NFL. 😉 I wouldn’t go so far as saying Michigan was the most talented team even in their conference. Ohio St pretty much takes that prize yearly though it didn’t pay off the last two times that they played the Wolverines. (Insert coaching here.) Alabama and Georgia might also like a word. McCarthy weighed in at the Combine yesterday at 219.

3. Maye indeed has ideal size and arm strength, no argument. He also looks pretty raw playing the position to me.

4. Agreed.

5. Strong arm, yes, but as far as I can tell he did not take part in the arm velocity testing yesterday. McCarthy threw 61 mph, Josh Allen hit 62 mph at his combine appearance. Penix may have the strongest arm but it would be not by much. Considering that he suffered 4 significant injuries in 4 consecutive seasons (2018- Right ACL, 2019- dislocated right SC Joint, 2020- Right ACL again, 2021- separated left AC Joint) I have taken him off my board.

 

[Chris]

Well, Daniels will have to tear two ACLs until we can compare them, right? I mean - I would hope after 2 ACL tears Penix has 'learned the lessons'

Don’t forget tearing up both shoulders, too.

 

[Boone]

I really appreciate you guys looking at the QBs in depth and reporting back... I have a lot going on right now and just haven't been able to do it, so it's great reading the perspectives of folks who have.

 

[Chris]

Exactly my point. I think Penix is ahead of Drake Maye or McCarthy in terms of his ability to transition to the NFL game in 2024.

My pique was over the fact that some folks thought being 21 or 22 at quarterback instead of 23/24 was somehow a big advantage coming into the draft.

Nothing further could be from the truth IMO.

I remember back to being 20 or 21 and then moving on to things when I was 23 or 24.

A difference in life experience and perspective, as well as maturity.

It’s a big advantage to me if the players being compared are of similar abilities and performance levels at the moment. More years of growth and development (improvement opportunities) in their back pockets.

 

[tomwvr]

Ive always felt that older Quarterbacks in College have an advantage over younger players. A 24 year old will play better against 18-19 year olds from what I have seen, So there is a bias of the data for older qbs in college.

 

[burgold]

Ive always felt that older Quarterbacks in College have an advantage over younger players. A 24 year old will play better against 18-19 year olds from what I have seen, So there is a bias of the data for older qbs in college.

I think the same. I remember that QB Cleveland drafted a few years ago in the first round (Whedon, I think?) He was twenty-five when they picked him and had a killer final year in college. People side-eyed his achievements though and they turned out to be right. The guy flamed out of the league pretty quick.

That said, I didn't think the NBA fad of drafting high schoolers and freshmen strictly on potential while ignoring production was the best strategy either. So, I'm guessing there's a middle somewhere where the player is seasoned enough that you can make accurate projections, but raw enough that you can daydream about what he might one day become.

 

[Neophyte]

Age isn't particularly important to me. Game time and competition level is.

Bo Nix - 61* games (Auburn/Oregan)
Jayden Daniels - 55 games (ASU/LSU)
Michael Penix, Jr - 48 games (Indian/Washington)
JJ McCarthy - 40** games (Michigan)
Caleb Williams - 37 games (Oklahoma/USC)
Drake Maye - 30 games (UNC)

for comparison

Sam Howell - 37 games (UNC) + 17 games (Commanders)

*NCAA record
**includes a National Championship

 

[tomwvr]

My issue is the guys that are 23-25 have a physical advantage that they wont have in the NFL. So the stats they have are not where they will be in the league. They also have less wear and tear on their bodies in a very tough on your body game. I would take a 22 year old that is close in stats to a 24-25 year old any day. And the guys that are 23-25 I would look at their 21-22 stats and compare to the stats of the 22 year olds in the draft with them

 

[Chris]

For comparison-

Patrick Mahomes- Games- 32, age when drafted- 21
Josh Allen- Games- 27, age when drafted- 21
Lamar Jackson- Games- 38, age when drafted- 21
CJ Stroud- Games- 27, age when drafted- 21

 

[Neophyte]

You read my mind, Chris. I was going there later tonight.

 

[Neophyte]

Just for balance, some recent NFL high draftees who have been less successful - at least so far.

Bryce Young - 34 games (Alabama)
Anthony Richardson - 24 games (Florida)
Zach Wilson - 30 games (BYU)
Trey Lance - 19 games (North Dakota State)
Kyler Murray - 29 games (Texas A&M, Oklahoma)

 

[Chris]

I generally like Al Galdi’s stated opinions but take exception to something he put forward today about why he prefers Maye to Daniels as a QB prospect.

1. Concerns about his frame and potential durability issues. That is a 100% valid concern that is shared by, well hell, everyone.

2. Daniels had ”had just one high-level season in college”. It appears that Al doesn’t view 14 games, 69% completion percentage, 17 TD, and 3 Int in the SEC as “high level”. Al and I will just have to disagree on that one.

Here are some statistical comparisons between Maye and Daniels over the past two college seasons:

Maye

Games played- 26
Attempts- 942
Completions- 611
Yards- 7929
Completion %- 65%
YPA- 8.41
YPC- 12.97
TDs- 62
INT- 16
TD/INT Rate- 1.6

Daniels

Games played- 26
Attempts- 715
Completions- 502
Yards- 6725
Completion %- 70%
YPA- 9.40
YPC- 13.39
TDs- 57
INT- 7
TD/INT Rate- 0.9

(These are only the passing statistics over the referenced time period. Rushing was not included.)

So, really, Al? REALLY? Only one high-level season?

 

[Chris]

FYI- the BGO ad is within that particular segment of today’s pod. 🥳

 

[burgold]

What's funny to me is this was touted as a great QB year at one point with the two at top the best prospects since Burrow and Luck. Maybe we're just in nitpicking season, but these all time great prospects sure sound like they have Achilles Heels.

 

[Chris]

I agree. I know I’m nitpicking, for sure. Most likely because I view having the opportunity to finally find a very good QB after spending so much time wandering the desert so damn important. I don’t want them to fuck it up. 🤣