2024 - Way too early draft thread

New reason not to pick a QB with our number one.

I was reading some draft analysis and people are saying that Fields and Maye will be one and two, but then there's a drop off and that Daniels and Penix would not be a good value at number four.

Well, if they are not a good value at number four then they're not ultra franchise QBs. If they're not ultra franchise QBs... address the line!
 
I have a feeling we are going to beat the Jets today which will make all the QB debate irrelevant.
 
Boone said:
I have a feeling we are going to beat the Jets today which will make all the QB debate irrelevant.
Click to expand...


i have the same feeling.

By irrelevant, are you saying it's because Sam plays well enough, or because we'll be out of draft position?
 
I meant that we'll drop in the draft ranks and that taking a top QB (based on assumed QB rankings and where they are projected to be taken) won't be possible.

I don't think there are any 'can't miss' QBs in this draft, nor do I believe a new GM will want to move on from Howell so quickly, but it would be more tempting with a top 3 pick than a later one. If you are Sam Howell, winning today might be the best thing for you.
 
Or switch the ‘debate’ from the Draft to Free Agency. 👺
 
New ownership and GM/HC could decide to make a serious first-year splash and trade up to No. 1 if they’re convinced The Guy is there. Not advocating it, just acknowledging the possibility.

If they don’t, they take a stud non-QB wherever they end up and maybe consider grabbing a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round to develop behind Sam next year. There are some guys I suspect would fit that bill nicely coming out.

That theory also works if some other team fancies our top pick enough to let us trade back and stock up.

No matter how it plays out, the Silly Season is nigh upon us.
 
Anything is possible and regardless of what the new brain trust does there will be a significant portion of the media and fanbase screaming bloody murder.
 
Boone said:
I have a feeling we are going to beat the Jets today which will make all the QB debate irrelevant.
Click to expand...
I kinda do too and don't know how I feel about it.
 
Also, to those who celebrate, merry Christmas Eve!
 
I wanted to sit down and see what he last 3 weeks meant based on the scenarios in front of us so i made this raw table to take a look from a higher view

1703432829461.png


Highlighted are the common opponents.

The easy answer, we root for LAC / CHI / NYJ / NYJ / TEN over the next 3 weeks if your goal is to remain at 4 or better.

ATL / GB / LV are a long shot as it would take 2 wins by WSH paired with 2 losses by them to bring them back into the picture. There is a chance.. but a relative long shot

There are so many layers to what is going to happen, it's really time consuming to try and identify what each win / loss means.

Just for instance, if we beat the Jets this week...

Their SOS goes up, as well as CHI, NYG (worth double), ARI, NE, ATL.

That said, the SOS for everyone that the Jets plays(ed), there is an offsetting reduction for everyone outside of their division (because everyone inside their division, they play twice so it has twice the effect.)
 
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Great analysis! I was thinking about doing these same calculations.

My thought is that the race is on for picks 2 through 9. Carolina probably has #1 locked up as I am thinking that both NE and Ari win one more game. Since Chicago already will get the top pick from Carolina - I anticipate them playing hard down the stretch and getting maybe two more wins.

While I think today’s game will give Ron the opportunity to mess things up for the Commanders- I am counting on our defense to elevate the Jets defense to world beaters. Just hoping that Sam is able play well and show the future front office that he is the least of their problems.
 
SkinsBusDriver said:
Great analysis! I was thinking about doing these same calculations.

My thought is that the race is on for picks 2 through 9. Carolina probably has #1 locked up as I am thinking that both NE and Ari win one more game. Since Chicago already will get the top pick from Carolina - I anticipate them playing hard down the stretch and getting maybe two more wins.

While I think today’s game will give Ron the opportunity to mess things up for the Commanders- I am counting on our defense to elevate the Jets defense to world beaters. Just hoping that Sam is able play well and show the future front office that he is the least of their problems.
Click to expand...
Hope and nope. I actually was afraid they had a chance before the game started.
 
SilentThreat said:
I wanted to sit down and see what he last 3 weeks meant based on the scenarios in front of us so i made this raw table to take a look from a higher view

View attachment 7216

Highlighted are the common opponents.

The easy answer, we root for LAC / CHI / NYJ / NYJ / TEN over the next 3 weeks if your goal is to remain at 4 or better.

ATL / GB / LV are a long shot as it would take 2 wins by WSH paired with 2 losses by them to bring them back into the picture. There is a chance.. but a relative long shot

There are so many layers to what is going to happen, it's really time consuming to try and identify what each win / loss means.

Just for instance, if we beat the Jets this week...

Their SOS goes up, as well as CHI, NYG (worth double), ARI, NE, ATL.

That said, the SOS for everyone that the Jets plays(ed), there is an offsetting reduction for everyone outside of their division (because everyone inside their division, they play twice so it has twice the effect.)
Click to expand...
Since Washington is not getting to 5 wins, don’t we want Arizona to beat Chicago? Double bonus, no?
 
The scary thing is, the no 1 pick is still in play
 
Well hell, NE has now made this whole thing complicated and seriously increased our chances of effing up this draft.

I'm sure I'm weird but I have believed for weeks that there is a sweet spot in this draft and it's just outside the Top 3 picks.
 
I’m much more in the camp of a higher pick gives the new POC better ammunition for whatever they choose to do.

 
According to my in-depth analytical calculations 🤣 IF Washington & New England both lose their last two games, New England would have the #3 selection in the upcoming draft based on (lack of) strength of schedule.

Currently Washington’s SOS sits at .520, New England at .522

Washington plays San Francisco (.733) and Dallas (.667)

New England plays Buffalo (.600) and the NYJ (.400)

Perhaps Belichick gets a walk-off win in the season finale and makes it all moot.

Otherwise, it looks like the battle of titans for #3 goes New Englands way.
 
Caleb Williams, the current consensus first pick in the upcoming draft, chose to sit out USC’s bowl game.

So sophomore Miller Moss got his first start against a good Louisville defense.

IMG_2963.jpeg


🤔
 
Chris said:
According to my in-depth analytical calculations IF Washington & New England both lose their last two games, New England would have the #3 selection in the upcoming draft based on (lack of) strength of schedule.

Currently Washington’s SOS sits at .520, New England at .522

Washington plays San Francisco (.733) and Dallas (.667)

New England plays Buffalo (.600) and the NYJ (.400)

Perhaps Belichick gets a walk-off win in the season finale and makes it all moot.

Otherwise, it looks like the battle of titans for #3 goes New Englands way.
Click to expand...


Isn’t SOS the season as a whole? Meaning those games are already technically accounted for in
 
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