Kirk Cousins Development Tracker

Henry said:
Count me as amongst those ok waiting until the season is over before making any decisions about Kirk. He may very well be proving to be a quality starter in this league, but I think the last thing you want to do is negotiate a deal right after the best game he's ever played, and likely will play, ever. That's just dumb. :)
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While I kinda agree..... we'll also look really dumb if we don't sign him up now and then he plays a blinder for the rest of the year, takes us to the playoffs and then starts getting obscene offers from other teams after the season which we'll have to match to keep him.

At this point, yes he played a blinder this week and yes his stock is high right now. But this may well be the only chance we get to lock him in for something reasonable. We've seen potential, maybe not definitive proof as yet, but enough to know that he can QB this team at least in the short term.

If we let a bidding war start to happen then we are either going to lose him and be back to square 1, or we'll pay much much more for him than we needed to.

No one knows what the next 7 games will bring. He may very well bomb and then we can snap him up for peanuts. But he's trending upwards and that price is only going to get more expensive the better he plays. Other teams are surely watching.

I'm sure Denver are looking for a Manning replacement (Did you see his rating this week!?!) and the rumor is that Bree's could go there. In which case the Saints just had a close up view of what Cousins can do. Also with injuries rampant around the NFL there will be teams looking for a good back up if nothing else. This weeks game I think probably put Kirk on the radar and made some other teams sit up and take notice.

Anecdote - towards the start of the season in my Fantasy League I was starting Romo (yes I know!) and had Cousins as my backup. When Romo went down I put Cousins in the starter spot and picked up Bree's. One of the guys in the league lost his QB a couple of weeks ago and was looking to trade and asked if I'd let Bree's go (I don't remember what he offered!). I offered him Cousins instead (I still had Romo on the bench waiting to come back from IR). He scoffed at me for offering Cousins and took Bradford instead. This week he put up a comment in our Messenger group regretting that decision. LOL

As for myself.... I effing started Bree's this week! BAH! Cousins was on my bench.
 
Heh, don't think anyone is going crazy to get Kirk signed immediately because of one nice game.

As Om points out, it's his body of work, how he's handled the moniker of 'starter' and if the guys in the building see progression over the year that satisfies their criterion, not ours.

My observation, as naïve as it is, has him improving in terms of running this offense, mistakes, confidence and leadership. This is just based on those several hours that I get to see him from a far on game day.

Outwardly it also appears that the guys on the team like him but no way to really gauge that one.

Agree also that winning against a good-to-go opponent would enhance his rep and signing out of fear for a potential missed opportunity is not the way to go either.

Seriously doubt, however, that per game performance highs and lows would significantly budge offers to sign enough to really matter here, what makes the market is driven by the needs based on outside perceptions. Kirk's curve could swing toward the negative, making this all pretty moot but as of now his value is on the rise.

If the football guys want to gamble on the open market fine but we'd better have viable options if Kirk decides to go elsewhere.
 
For my mind the alternative to not locking him up is the potential to destroy much of what we've achieved this year.

Kirk is an Unrestricted Free Agent after this season.

Which means we have next to no leverage on him.

If he plays even at the same consistent level of the last few games for the rest of the season he'll be in demand on the market. Someone will make a silly offer to him. Guaranteed.

When that happens I think McCloughan is sensible enough not to pay silly money to keep him.

But then what?

Griffin is gone. We all know that. The Skins don't want him and I doubt he'd want to stay here after the way he's been treated.
Which leaves us with McCoy.

And what else?

If Brees is on the move he isn't coming here. He'll go to a contender like Denver or the like.

Jay Cutler? Thanks but no thanks.

Who else is there?

Then we're back to a journeyman or the draft. If it's journeyman is he gonna be any better than Kirk? Probably not.
If it's the draft then we're back to an RGIII situation where we'll throw him in to start before he's ready and waste another year as the team breaks in a new rookie QB. Plus say we win 6 or heaven forbid 7 games this year we're not getting a top level draft pick. Nothing that will net us a franchise QB.

Kirk doesn't strike me as stupid. He knows he's on a roll right now. He also is probably aware that stock can go up as well as down. Right now he's played a great game and his stock is high.

So he has a choice. Play out the rest of the season, hope he continues to play at this level or higher and then reap a huge payday at the end.

Or....

He and the Redskins sit down and hash out a deal. He gets a fair contract for a few years worth a good amount with a year guaranteed or some such. The Redskins lock in their QB for the next few years and continue to build around him in the hopes he becomes something special or that they can find a new QB in a couple of years when the team is ready.

I'm not sure he's the kind of guy who plays poker, because if they leave it to seasons end one of two things will happen. Either he'll bomb his own value through the floor with bad games and then HE will have to settle for less than he could get now. Or he'll blow his value up to the roof and then the Redskins will regret passing this opportunity to lock him up for a reasonable amount or lose him to another team.

I think it's in both the interests of Kirk and the team to sit down and get this done now.
Sell him on the fact he could be the QB they're looking for, butter him up with how he beat out RGIII and now they are building this team around him. Plus it kicks any new QB controversy that we could possibly have in the nuts before it starts and gets rid of any distractions for team and player.
 
Also...

Kirk has seen first hand what happens to a QB who is like a gift from the Gods one minute and on the scrap heap the next.

RGIII sits next to him on the bench everygame dressed in civvies and reminds him of just how fast the worm can turn.

All QB's have supreme self confidence (that's what RGIII was kinda getting at in the misconstrued radio interview) and I'm sure Cousins thinks he's going to continue to be on an upward swing for the rest of the season.

But still.... There's Griffin a constant reminder of how the mighty fall and how fast they can come down.

If the Redskins come to the table with a reasonable offer right now he might well bite their hands off as he knows that this could be a very narrow precipice he's waking right now. And something guaranteed that will set he and his family up for life could be worth an awful lot to him considering the really humble kind of guy he seems to be.

Just a musing.
 
TomE said:
Heh, don't think anyone is going crazy to get Kirk signed immediately because of one nice game.
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Sadly, I disagree.

If it weren't THIS game, we wouldn't be suddenly all talking about extensions after this game. Why wouldn't everyone have been talking about it after last game?

When he plays like crap, people say "Let him play out the season before deciding what to do" and I think that's a good idea.

When he plays lights out, I'm saying "Let him play out the season before deciding what to do." I still think that's a good idea.

Patience works both ways. It has been pointed out that we could look dumb if we don't sign him right now. I think it's just as likely that we could look dumb if we DO sign him right now.

Let's have some patience and let the season play out. As has been said MANY times on this board, it's really tough to judge a starter on less than a full season.
 
Om said:
If your point is simply to say that taking any one game, perfect or otherwise, out of context, proves nothing, then we have no argument. But if you're saying that because Geno Smith had one perfect rating game justifies dismissing Kirk's, I stand by the notion that you seem to be looking pretty hard to find something negative to say about Mr. Cousins given the larger picture and career arc at the moment.
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If you're saying it "proves nothing", essentially you are the one who is dismissing it. I'm simply making others aware that Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, and... yes... Robert Griffin III also have achieved this.

Regardless, I believe we have no argument... I'm looking forward to checking out the coaches' film. If nobody charts the attempts/completions, I suppose I'll have to do that.
 
I laid this out in another post, but he'll likely get signed in the offseason... and if the Redskins aren't willing to guarantee him ~$20M in the first year of his contract, then he'll likely be signed somewhere after March 7th (last day to designate a player with a transition/franchise tag). After that, a contract will be based on his perceived market value...

You see, right now, the Redskins have exclusive rights to negotiate with this player and in order to retain those rights for one more year they have to transition tag him (at least) and that would cost them $20M in 2016... So, for Cousins to accept anything less than that would mean he doesn't get tagged... If they work out a deal before Cousins goes to free agency, it might look similar to the Nick Foles deal ($24M over 2 years), but have a lot more guaranteed in the 1st year (around $20M). It would essentially be a transition tag deal, but the Redskins would get an extra year out of it and spread the $20M over 2 years. He'd get something like $10-11M in cap hit the first year, then $13-14M in the 2nd year. That's how I think it might work, if Redskins want a short term deal & Cousins wants to prove himself here. If he wants a Tannehill type deal, I say 'no way'.
 
The issue is not with the Transition Tag. It's likely they might use this yes, I agree.

The issue is with what happens if we get post season and how bad things could get really fast.

So the Skins Transition tag Kirk who plays a blinder down the stretch. Team finished somewhere in the realms of 8-8 with some impressive performances on the way.

Lets look at the NFL in general... Rumours that Bree's may move and Cutler is up for grabs in Chicago. Teams that would probably be interested in a QB who's show upside and avoided injury... Bears, Eagles, Rams, Saints, are the Browns sold on Manziel?, Houston, 49ers maybe if they punt Kap, Buffalo, maybe even the likes of the Jets and the Chiefs depending on how sold they are on their incumbants... Now I haven't checked the status on all these QB's but the point is there will be at least 4 or 5 teams in the hunt for a new man behind centre.

Do we really think one of these desperate teams wouldn't offer Tannehill type money? Are we willing to bet a year of the franchise on that assumption? Is McCloughan?

The transition tag means we match or we let him walk. In that instance we'd probably let him walk and rue the fact we probably could have locked him in now.

From Kirks perspective the above scenario looks great! Set for life! But of course, as mentioned, he's seen how fast the mighty fall in the NFL. He's riding a wave right now and maybe now would be a great time to capitalize and sign a deal that guarantees him something rather than risking it all. If he bombs for the rest of the season who's going to offer him anything at all?

Now we could Franchise tag him, but I think that's unlikely.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that McCloughan has taken note and probably likes the direction Kirk is heading in and is probably already talking to his agent and trying to work out details of a deal. I see it as the most risk averse course for both sides. Because if we wait till seasons end... someones going to lose out. Either the Skins pay over the odds for Kirk or lose him, or Kirk doesn't get anywhere near the money he could get right now if he bombs for the rest of the season.

I think we're hearing it all over the place now because this game has provided the crossroads point. Yes he still has a way to go, but he's show all year really that the potential is there and now he's starting to string together good games back to back. This feels like the pivot point now where he's either going to continue to grow and be worth more and more, or he'll backslide and won't get what he could have got now.

That's why this is an issue right now.
 
If they franchise him, they don't have to match anything. They pay the average of top 5 salaries as I understand it. No one can steal him. The problem with waiting and having to transition him is he may just prove adequate for a year or two while continuing the rebuild and find his replacement. If that's the case and you have to franchise him this year because he hits free agency and the market is ripe, you either let the guy who knows the system and can help out well enough for another year or two, or you way overpay him. He's shown he can at least manage games well enough to be competitive, and even more than that at times. If he's willing to do a reasonable contract now, it would not be a bad decision. Of course, there's every chance he's not interested in a deal until the season is over when he can likely maximize his contract if he continues to perform well. However, even a reasonable contract sets him up for life, and I'm sure that weighs on his mind after being a backup since coming into the league. Anything can happen, and passing up that opportunity now, if it's what the team even wants to do, would have to be heavily considered by him I would think.
 
Henry said:
If it weren't THIS game, we wouldn't be suddenly all talking about extensions after this game. Why wouldn't everyone have been talking about it after last game?

When he plays like crap, people say "Let him play out the season before deciding what to do" and I think that's a good idea.

When he plays lights out, I'm saying "Let him play out the season before deciding what to do." I still think that's a good idea.

Patience works both ways. It has been pointed out that we could look dumb if we don't sign him right now. I think it's just as likely that we could look dumb if we DO sign him right now.

Let's have some patience and let the season play out. As has been said MANY times on this board, it's really tough to judge a starter on less than a full season.
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Fully understand what your saying.

Granted, this last game might have sparked a much more vocal call to get him in the fold before we lose him but Kirk has been pretty decent over the last few games,
so this has been brewing for at least a while.

Ideally we do give him the whole season to establish his worth. If he blows up and finishes out with a great season then that's what we pay for and if all goes well we have our guy going into next season. We also know that there is no 'ideal' situations when it comes to the rest of the league and reactionary bidders for talent.

Kirk's agent knows this and will take full advantage of it. Open market can go either way, it's nice to think that the market will 'set itself' but this is the NFL not some commodities exchange and 'fair value' is heavily tempered by pressures to win at all costs.

Looking dumb is pretty low on my list of concerns with this team, we've seen plenty of that already. If the boys in the bunker decide to wait it out and Kirk ends up being 'the guy' and we have to pay more to get him then that's a dumb I can live with as long as it doesn't kill the cap and hurt the overall rebuild process.

The potential risk of 'overpaying' Kirk, killing the cap and/or losing the 'good' Kirk, having to start over into the unkown once again is the dumb that will be hard to swallow.

Fun ride either way

Beat Carolina this weekend and we can all start this again. :D
 
Don't forget Denver... Kubiak is there & Cousins/RGIII both familiar with the system. RGIII would love this opportunity, since he grew up a Broncos fan. I'm pretty sure Cousins wouldn't mind throwing to those WRs on a winner. Osweiler in final year of his contract.

I don't believe Cutler is going anywhere. He has had somewhat of a resurgence under Gase in Chicago. I don't see the Saints letting go of Brees either, for the same reasons you mention for teams potentially being interested in Cousins. You don't let a franchise QB go...

Also, I'd add Detroit to this list... While Stafford is still young, his play has fallen off and Detroit has made some questionable decisions (firing GM & President mid-season). Who knows if they get a new coaching staff & go in a different direction at QB (Stafford counts for $22.5M next year, but would count for $11M in dead money). Would they use the $11.5M in savings to look in another direction at QB? Maybe... 50/50 there.

On a personal note: Cousins has ties to Michigan (HS/College), Orlando, Florida (dad) & Atlanta, Georgia (wife)... Personal reasons sometimes guide decisions, and Detroit may be the only opportunity that lines up for him there. Maybe Detroit's possible new coach looks at Cousins as an upgrade (i disagree) that won't cost them $45M over the next 2 seasons.

Let's look at the rest of the list: Eagles, Rams, Browns, Houston, 49ers, Buffalo, Jets and the Chiefs

Eagles: would still have Mark Sanchez. If they keep Chip Kelly, I could see them making a play for Mariota (given draft interest & new Titans coach). Probably look to draft or maybe someone like RGIII. I don't see them as big spenders on a FA QB.
Rams: Nick Foles probably still their guy in 2016, based on cap hit.
Browns: Last time they went for big FA at any position? Maybe they would invest though in a QB, since they have sucked in draft. They can walk away from McCown with little damage to cap.
Houston: They will be all in on draft and FA, IMO... I could see them going after Cousins, RGIII & drafting a QB high. It really depends on O'Brien (who might want the Maryland job).
49ers: Kaep is gone... I don't know who wants to play for this team. They'll probably throw money at mid-tier guys and draft a QB.
Bills: Tyrod Taylor is still under contract... Maybe they in running for Kaep with Greg Roman as their OC.
Jets: Geno Smith is still under contract... and didn't look horrible 2 weeks ago (except for 1 bad pass). Maybe they work to retain Fitzpatrick & draft another.
Chiefs: Alex Smith isn't going anywhere... It would be too expensive to cut him (pay like $8M to cut him, then have to sign someone else).

Most likely destinations for Cousins, IMO:
1) Redskins
2) Denver
3) Houston (I can't see them taking Cousins if RGIII is available... RGIII is still a hero there)
4) Detroit (if they release Stafford, this moves to #2)

Most likely destinations for Robert Griffin:
1) Houston (close to Waco and the people who love him most)
2) Denver
3) Philly
4) Dallas (never underestimate Jerry Jones' marketing machine)... closer to home for Robert, too.

If Titans trade Mariota to Philly, then that changes things slightly. Maybe Titans a destination for either QB, but I think that doesn't change most likely destinations for either.
 
JI Halsell on ESPN980 right now (1PM EST)... Not sure what he is going to say, but I respect his take on Cousins extension and salary cap... He is a good follow on twitter & has the financials down. I may change my view on this based on what he says, but I'd be surprised if he has something drastically different to say on it.
 
Henry said:
Sadly, I disagree.

If it weren't THIS game, we wouldn't be suddenly all talking about extensions after this game. Why wouldn't everyone have been talking about it after last game?

When he plays like crap, people say "Let him play out the season before deciding what to do" and I think that's a good idea.

When he plays lights out, I'm saying "Let him play out the season before deciding what to do." I still think that's a good idea.

Patience works both ways. It has been pointed out that we could look dumb if we don't sign him right now. I think it's just as likely that we could look dumb if we DO sign him right now.

Let's have some patience and let the season play out. As has been said MANY times on this board, it's really tough to judge a starter on less than a full season.
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I generally agree but I think it's the cumulative effect of seeing him look very effective in multiple games that is sparking the conversation (not just here but In sports media).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Henry said:
Sadly, I disagree.

If it weren't THIS game, we wouldn't be suddenly all talking about extensions after this game. Why wouldn't everyone have been talking about it after last game?

When he plays like crap, people say "Let him play out the season before deciding what to do" and I think that's a good idea.

When he plays lights out, I'm saying "Let him play out the season before deciding what to do." I still think that's a good idea.

Patience works both ways. It has been pointed out that we could look dumb if we don't sign him right now. I think it's just as likely that we could look dumb if we DO sign him right now.

Let's have some patience and let the season play out. As has been said MANY times on this board, it's really tough to judge a starter on less than a full season.
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Well put Henry. The way I see it is.....this year Kirk is auditioning for a job. That's it, nothing more, nothing less. Long way to go before he is annointed to anything. This year is his "trial" year. We did not have a starter last year. We are still trying to find him. Kirk won the job, and its his to lose. But its still an audition for the future. The jury is still out.

Never thought I would see Dalton lay an egg for an undefeated team. But this stuff happens to the best of them. Kirk's ride is still paved on a bumpy road. Each week is another test. What I am most proud of Kirk is what he showed with the intangibles. You know, those traits smoot point likes to ignore. Kirk not only played heads up ball, but how many times did he save a play from a bad snap? that's intangibles. He's learning, and making the passing grades. but it won't be his statistics that win him the job. It will be the team record. That's whats on the line. Football 101.
 
Halsell says:
1) QB Scarcity makes it likely Redskins choose to resign him
2) It gets more expensive to sign him the later they wait
3) Familiarity with system makes Cousins more forgiving of Redskins/RGIII issues
4) I missed what he said here...
5) Pay him lucratively, but with ability to get out from under it... $16M/yr (like Dalton), but with ability to get out with less dead money after 2016.
6) Robert health problems & inconsistencies kept Kirk Cousins around and in position to be QB now
7) Tannehill/Dalton deals give guaranteed money equal/slightly greater to FT
8) He goes into FT vs Transition Tag
9) Later this goes into season, more expensive it gets "potentially" for the Redskins.
10) His hunch is that an extension gets done and he stays with the Redskins. $17M/year with some protections for Redskins in case they have to part ways (like Kaep deal).

My thoughts:
He seems to think it gets more expensive as the year goes on... Maybe... I mean, Cousins look like a guy who is worried that he's going to get injured and needs millions now? They have 7 games left, I think it costs FT guaranteed money now or in March to retain his rights. However, I didn't have any other issues with it.
 
Every season offers a few big opportunities and decisions that can make or break your team. We've missed a few easy ones this year. And making the right decisions determines how long this rebuild takes.

1. Draft La'el Collins with a 7th rounder. (Failed)

2. Do we extend RG3 or not? Do we waste a roster spot on him, or get something back in trade for the future? (Failed)

3. Do we sign Kirk right now?

They don't get much easier than the three listed above. Let's see what you've got Scot. This is an opportunity to make up for some past misses.
 
McD, where were you again on the whole "clown show" when it came to signing people who were "questionable" again?
 
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