Kirk Cousins Development Tracker

[Boone]

I agree with Snider, at least on a couple points. Assuming there's a rookie that's available and that we like in next year's draft (and that's a big assumption), are we really going to turn over the starter role to him? Secondly - what free agent likely available next year is playing as well as Cousins is (or has) and why should we turn over the keys to him?

Smart move is to get Cousins on board and he's only going to get more expensive. We are still 2-3 years away from being a *potentially* dominant team and we would either be a) securing a capable signal caller for the next few seasons until we find 'the guy', or b) be getting a serious bargain on a future star. Either way, I don't see how we lose.

 

[stevenaa]

I think he'd sign a 3 year deal with a good guarantee. One that would set him up financially for life and still give him a chance at a homerun contract while still in prime playing age.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

Let's pump the brakes on the extension talk. I still want to see what Cousins does for the entirety of the season. I'm not being a Debbie downer, but this has been my position all year. When people were calling for McCoy, I said the same thing about letting him play out the year. I want him to get a chance to play the entire year, then the team will look back at his performance over the whole year. The ups and the downs. They will see how he responded after bad games and how he responded after great games. I am very happy with how he has played over the entire year so far. He's responded well to adversity and had some bounce back games and even bounced back after starting poorly. I'm confident if he keeps playing well, he will get an extension.

It also doesn't make business sense to negotiate after Cousins is at his highest value. Aside from leading the team to the playoffs (and beyond!), this is his highest point of the season. A perfect rating in a blowout, it's can't get better than this except for doing it in the playoffs. Now, if I were Cousins agent, I would be calling the Redskins right now getting the talks started. But for the team, I would still think they wait until after the season. And if you are worried about him playing perfect every game the rest of the year and leading the team to the playoffs and how much it will cost, well you've also lowered your risk since he's obviously going to be playing well and they would be more sure he's the guy.

I could be wrong and they may announce an extension tomorrow. But I still think it makes more sense to do it at the end of the season.

 

[stevenaa]

He'll be at his hottest at the end of the season when he hits free agency. The price to keep him then goes up tremendously. Some team will get stupid out of desperation. We could sign him to a cap friendly deal that sets him up and gives the team an easy out if needed. Right now there's nothing better on the horizon, so hey should hedge their bets if they can. Personally, I think he'd have to blow it in a big way to not be the starter next year. I'm not saying he's proven himself to be the long term solution yet, but I suspect the teams seen enough growth to want him next year, total collapse not withstanding. I bet he'd sign a 3 year 30 mil. contract with 15 guaranteed. If he falters he walks with 15. If not, he'd get the 30 and a big new contract, or renegotiate in year 3 for a big one. I'm not sure I'd offer that right now, but if he plays well next week, it would have to get serious consideration.

 

[TomE]

Most understand the angst in having fans overreacting to Kirk's last few games, most also understand that he has more to prove......again to the fans.

Rather than us getting into a tizzy with how we'd handle any negotiations, howzabout we let the process go to the guys actually making those decisions.

Fortunately the football guys in the building are the ones risking the timing of any extension. One presumes that a consensus one way or the other
will result in a decision and if they decide to go with Kirk for a few more years it's been fairly evident that contracts with this group has been reasonable for both sides.
(well maybe not the Griff option so much)

Enjoy the ride, if there is one to be had.

The good thing is that many of us are actually seeing his development proceeding to the point that we're even have this discussion.

 

[Om]

If the team AND Kirk can agree on a reasonable extension at this point, I'm good with it. He's shown me enough to convince me he is, at the very least, a more-than-serviceable starter--something we have failed utterly to lock in around here for a generation.

If Scot and Jay agree he's a solid option for the next 2-3 years, I'd be fine with them trying to lock Kirk in now and heading into 2016 with him has starter and a project draftee if they see something they like out there.

The real question may be if Kirk's agent feels like talkin' at this point. If I'm representing him right now, I'm not so sure I'm not advising my client to gamble on himself, play out the season, and see what the market holds.

 

[MikeSr619]

I'd like for him to beat a playoff bound team or a team with a winning record before we get all crazy over him.

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[Smoot Point]

Smooty, no one begrudges you your opinion. Truly. But to see anyone so vigorously "yeah butt-ing" a perfect passer rating day like the one Kirk had yesterday, with numbers replicated only 13 times in NFL history, is more than a little amusing.

You know who else threw for 350+ yards and had a perfect passer rating last year? Geno Smith, last game of season against Dolphins...

Nick Foles had one in 2013 with like 400+ yards against the Raiders...

Where are you getting the stat about "13 times?" I think that sounds pretty low.

 

[Smoot Point]

Ok, just for fun I Googled 'yards after catch stat' and I found this page:

Team Yards After Catch Statistics: 2015 NFL Season

Not sure how accurate it is. I know personally, I would have thought our yards after catch was relatively high over the course of the season, and maybe I'm reading the chart completely wrong, but this chart, if I'm reading it right, has us at third to LAST in yards-after-catch, per reception.

Can that possibly be right?

It could be right. Our YPA is low too... I'm pretty sure YAC is improved considerably after last game. One game improved Cousins' YPA on the season by .5 (mostly due to YAC). What I saw last week is that we were getting low YPA & low YAC as teams were mostly giving us the short passes and coming up and making tackles. Saints were just garbage.

I think it's mostly scheme and Cousins afraid to take the chances he took last year.

 

[stevenaa]

Smith might have turned out to be a good QB if he wasn't such a nut case.

 

[Henry]

Count me as amongst those ok waiting until the season is over before making any decisions about Kirk. He may very well be proving to be a quality starter in this league, but I think the last thing you want to do is negotiate a deal right after the best game he's ever played, and likely will play, ever. That's just dumb.

 

[Om]

I'd like for him to beat a playoff bound team or a team with a winning record before we get all crazy over him.

That's fair. But who's going "all crazy?"

You know who else threw for 350+ yards and had a perfect passer rating last year? Geno Smith...

I find things amusing too...

I'm sure. Does context matter, though? I didn't get to watch him that day. At a glance ... that was the last game of the year last season. Jets came into it 2-13. Geno came in having thrown 10 TD's against 13 picks through 15 games. He'd turned in games with QB ratings in the single digits (7.6, 0.0). But he also came in off three straight games in the mid-80's. Of course, given what's happened to him since then, there's a certain punch line quality to invoking his name, so I get why you'd choose it.

If your point is simply to say that taking any one game, perfect or otherwise, out of context, proves nothing, then we have no argument. But if you're saying that because Geno Smith had one perfect rating game justifies dismissing Kirk's, I stand by the notion that you seem to be looking pretty hard to find something negative to say about Mr. Cousins given the larger picture and career arc at the moment.

And because I'm a sick man, part of me finds that amusing.

 

[MikeSr619]

Are you going to word cop me?

Because I think going crazy over him has been made pretty abundant with the "sign him to an extension now" and making claims of trying to give him 10 mil when he hasn't even beaten a winning team yet.

Is that clear enough, officer?

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[Goaldeje]

Yeah, I think maybe there is some conflation that those of us in favor of waiting don't think Kirk should be extended. As others have pointed out, you don't negotiate an extension right after the best game he will likely ever play. Think back to the Giants game, do you think Kirk's agent would have even answered that phone call if Scot had decided to pursue an extension then?

I'm fine with Scot extending Kirk, and if he chooses to do it now, I trust the guy to make the right call. But panicking now and running to Kirk with an extension offer at this moment in time would not be in our best interests. It's OK to want to see more, particularly when you factor in the Giants game AND the Saints game.

As a side note, I love the fact that I just typed that I trust our GM, and I actually meant it. I think this team is on the upswing, and he is a big part of the reason why.

 

[Om]

Mike,

Crazy is as crazy does I guess. Personally I don't consider the idea of signing him to a reasonable deal--another highly subjective term--based on what we've seen to date, would qualify as crazy. But that's just a general feeling and essentially meaningless without numbers.

It's all good. No citation this time.

Carry on.

 

[MikeSr619]

Mike,

Crazy is as crazy does I guess. Personally I don't consider the idea of signing him to a reasonable deal--another highly subjective term--based on what we've seen to date, would qualify as crazy. But that's just a general feeling and essentially meaningless without numbers.

It's all good. No citation this time.

Carry on.

First off, who you be calling crazy?!

I may not know karate, but I do know karazy!!

A reasonable deal, sure. I don't think 10 mil per is reasonable or doing it now is. Thats where I was at with the "all crazy" part. Kirk has shown me he can make the right decisions, is very humble, and very hungry to learn. I like that. Fix his deep ball issues and I think I'm fully onboard.



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[Boone]

I think those (like me) believing it's time to consider an extension are arguing so based on a number of pretty competent performances this season, and also with the mindset that approaching it later just increases the potential cost and/or odds he departs and we are left to start over at the position. Now if you don't think he has looked very capable this year and/or want to start over at the position I can see why you would want to wait . But let's show members here respect enough that they aren't hailing him as Aaron Rodgers due to the Saints game. No one is doing that.


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[Om]

Got to thinking about how much would be too much for the Redskins to pay Kirk Cousins based on what we've seen to date. Here's the context this year:

Player	Team	Total Value	Avg./Year	Total Guaranteed	Avg. Guar./Year	% Guaranteed	Free Agency
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	$110,000,000	$22,000,000	$54,000,000	$10,800,000	49.1%	2020 UFA
Russell Wilson	Seahawks	$87,600,000	$21,900,000	$31,700,000	$7,925,000	36.2%	2020 UFA
Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	$87,400,000	$21,850,000	$34,250,000	$8,562,500	39.2%	2020 UFA
Eli Manning	Giants	$84,000,000	$21,000,000	$36,500,000	$9,125,000	43.5%	2020 UFA
Philip Rivers	Chargers	$83,250,000	$20,812,500	$37,500,000	$9,375,000	45.0%	2020 UFA
Cam Newton	Panthers	$103,800,000	$20,760,000	$41,000,000	$8,200,000	39.5%	2021 UFA
Matt Ryan	Falcons	$103,750,000	$20,750,000	$42,000,000	$8,400,000	40.5%	2019 UFA
Joe Flacco	Ravens	$120,600,000	$20,100,000	$29,000,000	$4,833,333	24.0%	2019 UFA
Drew Brees	Saints	$100,000,000	$20,000,000	$40,000,000	$8,000,000	40.0%	2017 UFA
Ryan Tannehill	Dolphins	$77,000,000	$19,250,000	$21,500,000	$5,375,000	27.9%	2021 UFA
Colin Kaepernick	49ers	$114,000,000	$19,000,000	$12,973,766	$2,162,294	11.4%	2021 UFA
Jay Cutler	Bears	$126,700,000	$18,100,000	$38,000,000	$5,428,571	30.0%	2021 UFA
Tony Romo	Cowboys	$108,000,000	$18,000,000	$40,000,000	$6,666,666	37.0%	2020 UFA
Matt Stafford	Lions	$53,000,000	$17,666,667	$33,500,000	$11,166,667	63.2%	2018 UFA
Alex Smith	Chiefs	$68,000,000	$17,000,000	$19,000,000	$4,750,000	27.9%	2019 UFA
Peyton Manning	Broncos	$34,000,000	$17,000,000	$15,000,000	$7,500,000	44.1%	2017 UFA
Carson Palmer	Cardinals	$49,500,000	$16,500,000	$14,235,294	$4,745,098	28.8%	2018 Void
Andy Dalton	Bengals	$96,000,000	$16,000,000	$17,000,000	$2,833,333	17.7%	2021 UFA
Sam Bradford	Eagles	$78,000,000	$13,000,000	$50,000,000	$8,333,333	64.1%	2016 UFA
Nick Foles	Rams	$24,500,000	$12,250,000	$12,022,000	$6,011,000	49.1%	2017 Void
Tom Brady	Patriots	$27,000,000	$9,000,000	$8,000,000	$2,666,667	29.6%	2018 UFA
Andrew Luck	Colts	$38,262,998	$7,652,600	$22,107,998	$5,527,000	100.0%	2017 UFA
Robert Griffin III	Redskins	$37,274,098	$7,454,820	$21,119,098	$5,279,775	100.0%	2017 UFA
Jameis Winston	Buccaneers	$25,351,277	$6,337,819	$25,351,277	$6,337,819	100.0%	2019 OFA
Marcus Mariota	Titans	$24,213,974	$6,053,494	$24,213,974	$6,053,494	100.0%	2019 OFA
Brian Hoyer	Texans	$10,500,000	$5,250,000	$4,750,000	$2,375,000	45.2%	2017 UFA
Blake Bortles	Jaguars	$20,654,802	$5,163,701	$20,654,802	$5,163,701	100.0%	2018 OFA
Josh McCown	Browns	$14,000,000	$4,666,667	$6,250,000	$2,083,333	44.6%	2018 UFA
Mark Sanchez	Eagles	$9,000,000	$4,500,000	$5,500,000	$2,750,000	61.1%	2017 UFA
Chad Henne	Jaguars	$8,000,000	$4,000,000	$4,500,000	$2,250,000	56.3%	2016 UFA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Jets	$7,250,000	$3,625,000	$4,000,000	$2,000,000	55.2%	2016 UFA
Chase Daniel	Chiefs	$10,000,000	$3,333,333	$3,000,000	$1,000,000	30.0%	2016 UFA
Shaun Hill	Vikings	$6,500,000	$3,250,000	$3,200,000	$1,600,000	49.2%	2017 UFA
Matt Hasselbeck	Colts	$3,000,000	$3,000,000	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	33.3%	2016 UFA
Drew Stanton	Cardinals	$8,200,000	$2,733,333	$3,000,000	$1,000,000	36.6%	2016 UFA
Matt Moore	Dolphins	$2,600,000	$2,600,000	$1,600,000	$1,600,000	61.5%	2016 UFA
Derek Anderson	Panthers	$4,500,000	$2,250,000	$1,500,000	$750,000	33.3%	2018 UFA
EJ Manuel	Bills	$8,885,300	$2,221,325	$8,885,300	$2,221,325	100.0%	2017 UFA
Austin Davis	Browns	$4,173,529	$2,086,765	$500,000	$250,000	12.0%	2018 UFA
Johnny Manziel	Browns	$8,248,596	$2,062,149	$7,707,913	$1,926,978	93.4%	2018 OFA
Blaine Gabbert	49ers	$4,000,000	$2,000,000	$500,000	$250,000	12.5%	2017 UFA
Charlie Whitehurst	Colts	$4,000,000	$2,000,000	$2,000,000	$1,000,000	50.0%	2016 UFA
Matt Schaub	Ravens	$2,000,000	$2,000,000	$2,000,000	$2,000,000	100.0%	2016 UFA
Matt Cassel	Cowboys	$2,000,000	$2,000,000	$0	$0	0	2016 UFA
Teddy Bridgewater	Vikings	$6,849,502	$1,712,376	$5,495,479	$1,373,870	80.2%	2018 OFA
Bruce Gradkowski	Steelers	$4,950,000	$1,650,000	$850,000	$283,333	17.2%	2016 UFA
Colt McCoy	Redskins	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	$150,000	$150,000	10.0%	2016 UFA
Tarvaris Jackson	Seahawks	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	$1,500,000	100.0%	2016 UFA
Kellen Clemens	Chargers	$3,000,000	$1,500,000	$645,000	$322,500	21.5%	2016 UFA
Scott Tolzien	Packers	$1,350,000	$1,350,000	$100,000	$100,000	7.4%	2016 UFA
Derek Carr	Raiders	$5,371,802	$1,342,951	$3,310,937	$827,734	61.6%	2018 UFA
Geno Smith	Jets	$5,019,603	$1,254,901	$3,068,784	$767,196	61.1%	2017 UFA
Jimmy Clausen	Bears	$1,125,000	$1,125,000	$262,500	$262,500	23.3%	2016 UFA
Tyrod Taylor	Bills	$3,350,000	$1,116,667	$1,150,000	$500,000	44.8%	2017 Void
Dan Orlovsky	Lions	$1,050,000	$1,050,000	$80,000	$80,000	9.7%	2016 UFA
Luke McCown	Saints	$1,050,000	$1,050,000	$80,000	$80,000	8.0%	2016 UFA
Michael Vick	Steelers	$970,000	$970,000	$0	$0	0	2016 UFA
Brock Osweiler	Broncos	$3,516,678	$879,170	$1,937,433	$484,358	55.1%	2016 UFA
Jimmy Garoppolo	Patriots	$3,483,898	$870,975	$1,103,744	$275,936	31.7%	2018 UFA
Matt Flynn	Saints	$870,000	$870,000	$0	$0	0.0%	2016 UFA
Garrett Grayson	Saints	$3,400,606	$850,152	$733,168	$183,292	21.6%	2019 UFA
Joe Webb	Panthers	$825,000	$825,000	$80,000	$80,000	9.7%	2016 UFA
Sean Mannion	Rams	$3,250,896	$812,724	$625,796	$156,449	19.2%	2019 UFA
Mike Glennon	Buccaneers	$3,104,063	$776,016	$637,500	$159,375	20.5%	2017 UFA
Thaddeus Lewis	Eagles	$745,001	$745,001	$0	$0	0.0%	2016 UFA
TJ Yates	Texans	$745,000	$745,000	$0	$0	0.0%	2016 UFA
Josh Johnson	Bills	$745,000	$745,000	$0	$0	0	2016 UFA
Bryce Petty	Jets	$2,833,696	$708,424	$553,696	$138,424	19.5%	2019 UFA
Matt Barkley	Cardinals	$2,739,528	$684,882	$497,028	$124,257	18.1%	2017 UFA
Ryan Nassib	Giants	$2,613,600	$653,400	$453,600	$113,400	17.4%	2017 UFA
Landry Jones	Steelers	$2,599,220	$649,805	$439,220	$109,805	16.9%	2017 UFA
Kirk Cousins	Redskins	$2,572,688	$643,172	$472,688	$118,172	18.4%	2016 UFA
Tom Savage	Texans	$2,520,584	$630,146	$300,584	$75,146	11.9%	2018 UFA
Brett Hundley	Packers	$2,503,632	$625,908	$223,632	$55,908	8.9%	2019 UFA
Brandon Weeden	Cowboys	$1,230,000	$615,000	$0	$0	0.0%	2016 UFA
Aaron Murray	Chiefs	$2,402,404	$600,601	$182,424	$45,606	7.6%	2018 UFA
AJ McCarron	Bengals	$2,401,652	$600,413	$181,652	$45,413	7.6%	2018 UFA
Zach Mettenberger	Titans	$2,345,116	$586,279	$125,116	$31,279	5.3%	2018 UFA
Case Keenum	Rams	$585,000	$585,000	$0	$0	0.0%	2016 RFA
Trevor Siemian	Broncos	$2,332,784	$583,196	$52,784	$13,196	2.3%	2019 UFA
Ryan Griffin	Buccaneers	$1,110,000	$555,000	$0	$0	0.0%	2017 RFA
Sean Renfree	Falcons	$2,205,896	$551,474	$45,896	$11,474	2.1%	2017 UFA
Taylor Heinicke	Vikings	$1,585,000	$528,333	$10,000	$3,333	0.6%	2018 RFA
Connor Shaw	Browns	$1,530,000	$510,000	$0	$0	0.0%	2017 ERFA
Tyler Bray	Chiefs	$1,495,000	$498,333	$10,000	$3,333	0.7%	2016 RFA
Matthew McGloin	Raiders	$1,485,000	$495,000	$0	$0	0.0%	2016 RFA

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[MikeSr619]

Boone, just a funny observation but the first person listed here on Om's stat is.....lol

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[Smoot Point]

Count me as amongst those ok waiting until the season is over before making any decisions about Kirk. He may very well be proving to be a quality starter in this league, but I think the last thing you want to do is negotiate a deal right after the best game he's ever played, and likely will play, ever. That's just dumb.

I totally agree... I'd rather take another year to figure out what you have and paying a premium (tag) than lock in now at a lower rate. Unless you can work a Foles length deal (2 years)... Worst situation would be what they have in Miami, and he is a better QB, IMO (Oh, and he also had a "perfect" game). Tannehill is probably what Cousins wants, given the similarity in stats... Tannehill has done more with less and has a better track record.