Kirk Cousins Development Tracker

There's a huge difference between using a 7th rounder on a top 10 talent in the draft, and keeping Greg Hardy on your team who continues to be an absolute asshat week after week.

Just like we gave Junior Galette a chance.

That was a huge error that could have solidified our line for the next five years. To be fair, 30 other GMs/owners also failed.

La'el could have sped up our rebuild by a year, and had RG3 gotten seriously injured again, that extension would have set us back another year to three years.

Could you imagine if we had to pay an injured RG3 $16 million next season, and then had to pay Cousins $14 million on top of it? That would have crushed us.

McLovin, Dan or Bruce have to be much smarter than that in the future. I hope it was Dan that influenced that decision. Because if it was McLovin, then we have concerns going forward.

Anyway, here's an opportunity to make up for two poor choices.
 
Smoot Point said:
Halsell says:
1) QB Scarcity makes it likely Redskins choose to resign him
2) It gets more expensive to sign him the later they wait
3) Familiarity with system makes Cousins more forgiving of Redskins/RGIII issues
4) I missed what he said here...
5) Pay him lucratively, but with ability to get out from under it... $16M/yr (like Dalton), but with ability to get out with less dead money after 2016.
6) Robert health problems & inconsistencies kept Kirk Cousins around and in position to be QB now
7) Tannehill/Dalton deals give guaranteed money equal/slightly greater to FT
8) He goes into FT vs Transition Tag
9) Later this goes into season, more expensive it gets "potentially" for the Redskins.
10) His hunch is that an extension gets done and he stays with the Redskins. $17M/year with some protections for Redskins in case they have to part ways (like Kaep deal).

My thoughts:
He seems to think it gets more expensive as the year goes on... Maybe... I mean, Cousins look like a guy who is worried that he's going to get injured and needs millions now? They have 7 games left, I think it costs FT guaranteed money now or in March to retain his rights. However, I didn't have any other issues with it.
Click to expand...

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the matter but more succinctly. LOL

It really comes down to how much McCloughan and/or Kirk want to roll the dice.

We don't know what the next 7 games will bring, and both team and player have huge things to gain or huge things to lose.

For Kirk this is the contract that will set him up for life.
For the Team, this is stability that can at the very least get them through the next couple of rebuilding years.

If Kirk leaves it's an epic disaster. The only QB we'd have under contract would be RGIII. Welcome back to QB controversy. Every good game Kirk has from this point forwards will just make teams more interested in him and start inching his price upwards. There have been so many QB injuries this year and there are so many teams that need QB's either at starter or as a backup or as a potential replacement for a retiring veteran (Looking at you Peyton) that there will be interest in him.

And someone will offer something stupid.

Historically that was the Redskins but I'm truly hoping those days are past.

I was listening to the Sports Junkies podcast on Monday and they were talking about just leaving the contract stuff till the exclusive negotiating period after the season. To me this feels super dangerous. By that point yes, the team will know where Kirk stands... but then so will Kirk. If he's played a blinder to see the year out then I guarantee at that point he'd wait that period out and see what the market offers him. The only way that period makes sense if is Kirk has a lackluster finish and then the team has the leverage to get a lower deal.
 
I dunno.... I see this slightly different I think.

Giving Galette a chance was a no brainer I think for the money he was gonna cost us. It's such a shame we didn't get to see him on the field this year. Our D has looked pretty good lately, and I think he could have upped it to something a little special.

I agree La'El could have been great. But as you said, we're not the only team that missed him.

Not sure I agree on the RGIII thing being a mistake. It was a slight risk, but not a mistake. I think this is where we're seeing McCloughan being smarter than the previous regime and thinking ahead.

And I think you have to look ahead when judging this move. McCloughan and co knew that we had 3 QB's on the books this year, and only 1 next year. He also knows the state of QBing around the league and I'll bet he knows who needs They also knew Colt was not the man in Washington. So the XFactor here was Cousins. What could he do in the starter spot?

Regardless of whether he bombs or is amazing for the year, what happens if he's gone for 2016. If he's gone and we know it's not Colt and we let RGIII go... who's QB1 in 2016? RGIII becomes insurance in that cause

If Kirk plays a blinder we sign him up, release RGIII and draft someone new to sit behind Kirk.

If Kirk leaves we plug RGIII back in and spin the story... "He's spent a year learning behind Kirk, he's better now than he was, he's healthier now than he was, it's the second coming of the saviour etc etc" Meanwhile you draft a rookie QB to sit behind RGIII and hope that the newly formed O-Line, now in it's second year can give RGIII the protection and confidence he needs to get back on track.

True they could have got another QB in FA, but who? Who would the fans accept? RGIII still to this day splits the fan base and I think there are many that would welcome him back as QB1.

Not saying that's a great plan, but I that would be my thinking in their position. I think that's why they had no interest in dealing him and why he's never been in any danger of playing bar a catastrophic chain of injuries to our first 2 QB's. He's the get out of jail card if the crap hits the fan after this season and we end up losing Colt and Kirk.

Again, not a great plan, but I can see the reasoning.
 
Great post Knight. Agree completely. For all we know, Cousins has told his agent not to open contract extension talks until after the season anyways. Or he has told his agent he has no desire to return here to play because of the circus this team has been for the last three years. We don't know what has gone on behind closed doors, and we probably never will.

If Cousins walks next year, for whatever reason, do we really want to start over completely from scratch? Griffin will only be a liability if he gets injured this year, and since he has only been active one or two games so far, that seems less and less likely. Scot hedged Gruden's bet that Cousins was going to be a good QB. So far that hedge hasn't been needed, but Griffin still provides insurance for whatever happens in the off season.
 
I don't think there's a snowballs chance Griffin stays regardless of what happens with Kirk. Both sides have got to be ready to move on.
 
I can see a scenario Griffin stays. If both Gruden AND Kirk go, and the new coach wants to try his hand with Griffin AND Griffin agrees to a reasonable contract (short term, probably - which would benefit both sides), I could maybe see him for another year.

Highly unlikely, but possible, imo.
 
stevenaa said:
If they franchise him, they don't have to match anything. They pay the average of top 5 salaries as I understand it. No one can steal him. The problem with waiting and having to transition him is he may just prove adequate for a year or two while continuing the rebuild and find his replacement. If that's the case and you have to franchise him this year because he hits free agency and the market is ripe, you either let the guy who knows the system and can help out well enough for another year or two, or you way overpay him. He's shown he can at least manage games well enough to be competitive, and even more than that at times. If he's willing to do a reasonable contract now, it would not be a bad decision. Of course, there's every chance he's not interested in a deal until the season is over when he can likely maximize his contract if he continues to perform well. However, even a reasonable contract sets him up for life, and I'm sure that weighs on his mind after being a backup since coming into the league. Anything can happen, and passing up that opportunity now, if it's what the team even wants to do, would have to be heavily considered by him I would think.
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I'm sorry I didn't see this yesterday... Just want to add a few caveats based on my understanding. There are two options with Franchise Tag:
1) Exclusive - which means you own the player's rights and they can negotiate a long-term deal only with you.
2) Non-Exclusive - which means other teams can negotiate and may owe you 2 future 1st round draft picks (or you can also make a lesser trade with this team dependent on their ability to sign the player to a deal). You have 1 week to match any offers made for the player.

Then there is the transition tag which only gives you the right to match whatever offers the player receives. No draft picks are exchanged, but I think you possibly get a compensatory selection (if you don't sign more FAs).

Concerning the franchise tag, and why I was in favor of signing the 5th year option with Robert... Franchise tag escalates after the 1st year, so you can't franchise tag a player twice in a row without incurring a steep increase in the cost. You want to put that off, if possible. I'm in favor of signing Cousins to a lucrative short-term contract over franchise tagging him, but it really depends on how he finishes the season.
 
Yep, Griff is the ace in the hole, it's also enough to keep negotiations with Kirk on a reasonable level.

Griff might not be the preferred QB in this system.... right now.... but he is still on the roster and the teams option to keep him there is still on the table.

Gruden may not like it but if he remains and Kirk goes then next years QB competition will be for real assuming that the politics of the team doesn't interfere.

If Kirk signs then most likely Griff is on the outs, picking up that Griffin option doesn't sound so bad now does it.

We might actually have some real poker players running things now.
 
Goaldeje said:
I can see a scenario Griffin stays. If both Gruden AND Kirk go, and the new coach wants to try his hand with Griffin AND Griffin agrees to a reasonable contract (short term, probably - which would benefit both sides), I could maybe see him for another year.

Highly unlikely, but possible, imo.
Click to expand...

Probably not at $16M though, and I think there will be a fair market for Robert in the offseason. Even with his problems, Houston and potentially Denver could come calling. While I like Robert, I doubt we get into a bidding war for his services... and I think we're going to release him. The 5th year option was the right move, if Robert was going to win the job... He hasn't, so now it's difficult seeing him here at a decent starting QB salary. Unless something happens...
 
Like I said, it's unlikely. I still don't have a problem with the decision to exercise the extension, even with the benefit of hindsight. Scot was hedging his bets, and had no idea going in what Gruden could do or if Kirk would rise to the challenge. So far, it looks unnecessary, but we have no idea what the rest of the season will hold..
 
Another thing that needs to be said... A lot of the reason you see QBs getting more than $40M guaranteed is because the cost to franchise a QB two consecutive seasons has been about $45M, but is going to balloon to over $50M. If a team tags a player twice, the cost is %120 percent of the original FT. If a team tags a player three times, the cost is %144 percent higher than that. The current FT for QB is $22M (I think it's $24M, but Halsell said $22M yesterday, so I'll go with his number). In year two, a QB would have to be paid $26.2M & in year 3 the QB would have to be paid more than $30M... So, if a player can get over $48M just accepting the FT in two consecutive years, then they would argue that they should get that money guaranteed within the 1st two seasons of any new contract. The team would then counter that they need more years for cap relief and money (not guaranteed) would be added to the back end of the contract. The non-guaranteed money remaining on the contract would be used for future negotiations and possibly become guaranteed later in order to create future cap room.

Agents basically argue that the player will be happy playing consecutive years on the Franchise tag (even if they aren't), so that really helps the player in the negotiations. Ultimately, it depends on whether or not the player wants to be a part of the team and in that situation, or if they want more guaranteed money now... A lot goes into this, but the speculation will be fun over the next 4 months. That's right... You heard it... Free Agency is less than 4 months away.
 
But there is still a tier amongst starting QBs. To be tagged, a QB should be worth the money. No matter how he finishes the year, I don't think he's earned that kind of money yet. Though the market is largely going to determine that. That is why I think they should push for a friendly contract that gets him signed early, that is good for both sides. Maybe that's a longshot possibility, but it's what I'd like to see done. I've seen enough to believe he's at the least serviceable a year or two if needed to find 'the guy'. I'm encouraged of late that his growth points to even more than that. I really liked the way he looked in the Pats game in a loss. The Tampa and Saints game were obviously good. He's gone from a guy that falters after a mistake and has deer in the headlight eyes, to a guy that seems to shrug off mistakes and looks confident and in control. The deep balls will come when the running game is going and we get someone who can get separation down the field. I think most of us would like him to become the guy to end the carousel, but in any case I think a contract could be had to get him signed early, but crafted in a way that the team is not hurt if he falters. I think if he competes well against the Panthers, and doesn't regress, we may see a push to get it done.
 
I heard him on the radio for the first time a few days ago and was very impressed. He represents himself and his teammates well.
 
stevenaa said:
I don't think there's a snowballs chance Griffin stays regardless of what happens with Kirk. Both sides have got to be ready to move on.
Click to expand...

I agree it's highly unlikely... but I could see it.

In a world where Kirk and McCoy walk and the Skins are left high and dry we need a fall back plan.

As I said above, it's not an easy sell, but the Skins could easily spin this. Thought it was a good idea to sit Griffin for the year for his own good, let the knee etc get properly healthy, get the O-Line sorted, let him learn and develop without the pressure coming from the QB1 spot and the press and fan attention... As half the fanbase still love RGIII this wouldn't be a totally hard sell.

For RGIII, he has a contract in place for $16m. Is he likely to get that elsewhere? He may want out but to be fair to him he's been remarkably silent on the subject this year thus far. He could have really rocked the boat and demanded trades etc but credit to him he has just taken his lumps and sat quietly on the bench supporting the team.

Also I'd imagine he feels most burned by the Shanaclan era for what's happened to him. In his head I bet he traces this back to that injury at the end of 2012, how they didn't force him to the bench, how he rushed back in 2013, the knee brace issues, how he lost confidence and wanted to be a pocket passer and not a run and gun QB, then the ankle issue. I'd imagine he's not happy about being benched by Gruden, but I wonder where he REALLY puts the blame himself. I'm not privvy to the conversations he's had with McCloughan behind the scenes, so don't know what's been said.

All that said...

I think that the team and RGIII will be parted next year.

I think Kirk resigns with us and we draft another QB to groom as backup and maybe future starter.
 
Gruden may not have a choice if the crap hits the fan after the season. LOL

I've been rewatching Friday Night Lights lately, start of the first season. There's a bit where Coach carter has to decide between playing Saracen or VooDoo, the new star QB they poached in who he doesn't like.

There's a bit where Garrity asks him who he's gonna play and he says something like:

"I'm gonna revolutionise the game and do away with QB's and put 4 RB's in the back field. You're just gonna see a whole lot of reverses!"

Made me chuckle. I could see Gruden doing that. LMAO
 
tr1 said:
Gruden is not going to have anything to do with RG3...and, Gruden will definitely be back next year.

No, look for RG3 landing with the pukes or Philly as a backup.
Click to expand...

I gotta tell you, I'd be surprised if he landed with either.
 
I'm thinking the Texans are a likely option for him. Possibly Detroit.

And a lot depends on if he will insist he remains the starter, of course.
 
Match the QB with their stats/ratings:
* average adjusted to account for games missed
Code: 
Name    Completion%             YPA              TD *   INT *     Total QBR (ESPN)
QB A         66.7               8.9              28         4                78.7
QB B         67.8               8.2              24         3                71.6
QB C         63.4               7.4              15         9                58.3
Is it...

1) Tom Brady
2) QBs who played the Saints *
3) Combined Average on Season for QBs who played the Saints *

* Andrew Luck,Kirk Cousins,Sam Bradford,Marcus Mariota,Cam Newton,Carson Palmer,Jameis Winston,Brandon Weeden,Matt Ryan,Eli Manning

I do not subtract statistics accrued while playing the Saints from the combined average... So, imagine how bad their stats would be in 9 games (subtracting Titans games) vs 10.

OK, it looks like it was Andrew Luck, not Matt Hasselbeck who played... so I've made adjustments to the original post.
 
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