2012 NFL Draft Order - Updated 03/10/12

And so far this weekend, we have moved up two positions in the draft order - maybe three by late Monday night.
 
I'll keep my fingers crossed. With all the injuries, suspensions and just plain bad luck the draft is about all we have left these days. :kick_can:
 
Yeah, we can use more Williams, Westbrooks, and Shulers.

Like, totally.
 
...and Jim Molinaros, Dallas Sartzs, Colt Brennans, Marko Mitchells, Kareem Moores, and Justin Tryons, et al.

Sigh. Which round is the cutoff in the draft for the point at which all players will be a success and none will do stupid off the field stuff? ...cause I'm all for trading down to that point and using all our picks there.

*Edit*
Just thought I'd link to a good article (partially) about the success rate of drafted players relative to where they're drafted that actually mentions some numbers on this.

Reinfeldt also looked at a second method for evaluating draft success that combines a number of different factors.

Judging productive players or players who have NFL-caliber traits over the last five or six years, he sees a .560 hit percentage for the first and second rounds; .350 for the third, fourth and fifth rounds; and .333 for the sixth and seventh rounds.

“The hit becomes a little bit easier to define there,” he said. “A guy could be a good role player there and be a hit [based on where he was taken].”
Click to expand...

Again, I'm not advocating tanking a season for higher draft picks. However getting a higher pick does give one the chance at drafting better players, our love of the underdog notwithstanding. :)
 
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The "Chance" exists at every slot from #1 to Mr. Irrelevant, and on to UDFA.

That's all I'm saying.

Also, is .560 average good from the #1 overall until the end of round 2?
 
Of course there's the risk of picking a dud or a player that gets injured anywhere in the draft. In fact, that's the primary point of the article. However assuming we can trust their methodology, the risk of a dud increases later in the draft.

I think the article also proves out what Gibbs always said about the draft being a crapshoot...not his solution to the problem though. :) However what was left unsaid is that there's a certain amount of skill involved so the numbers for those GMs who actually have a clue are probably a fair amount higher than those for the mental midget wannabe GMs that play at running a draft. In other words just think of what Snyderatto's hit rate was compared to Polian's. Additionally, the later you draft the lower your odds of benefitting from the mistakes of others, Aaron Rodgers being a good example of that.

As for whether the 56% number holds throughout the first two rounds, I can't imagine it wouldn't be without their pointing it out in the results. Besides, I think the trend in success rates is clear. The later the pick, the lower the likelihood of success. It doesn't mean players taken late can't succeed, just that the odds are longer.
 
Here are the latest draft projections. Too, be sure to check the first post in this thread - Neo keeps it updated weekly.

1. Indianapolis 0-12 .547
2. Minnesota 2-10 .568
3. St. Louis 2-10 .578
4. Jacksonville 3-9 .505
5. Washington 4-8 .453
6. Philadelphia 4-8 .495
7. Carolina 4-8 .500
8. Miami 4-8 .521
9. Cleveland 4-8 .531
10. Tampa Bay 4-8 .542
11. Arizona 5-7 .469
12. Seattle 5-7 .510
13. Buffalo 5-7 .516
14. Kansas City 5-7 .521
15. San Diego 5-7 .516
16. NY Giants 6-6 .510


Scenarios that could see the Redskins moving up in the selection order...

Minnesota:
On the road against a declining Detroit. Road game at Washington. Home game against a declining Chicago.

St. Louis:
On the road at Seattle. At home against slightly declining Cincinnati. Closing at home against San Francisco (may rest starters for playoffs).

Jacksonville:
At home against Tampa Bay. Last game against Indianapolis at home.

Washington:
Remaining games - Home, New England. Road, New York Giants. Home, Minnesota. Road, Philadelphia.

Philadelphia:
Games at Miami, Dallas. Home against Washington.

Carolina:
Home game against Tampa Bay.

Miami:
Home against Philadelphia, New Jork Jets. Road, Buffalo.

Cleveland:
Road, Arizona.

Tampa Bay:
Games at Jacksonville, Carolina, and Atlanta.

Arizona:
Home games against Cleveland and Seattle.

Seattle:
Home, St. Louis. Road, Chicago and Arizona.

Buffalo:
Road, San Diego. Home, Miami. Closes at New England (may rest starters for playoffs).

Kansas City:
Tough schedule, probably loses remaining games.

San Diego:
Home, Buffalo. Games at Detroit and Oakland.

New York Giants:
Home, Washington and Dallas. New York Jets at mutual home for both teams.
 
Burgundy Burner said:
Here are the latest draft projections. Too, be sure to check the first post in this thread - Neo keeps it updated weekly.

1. Indianapolis 0-12 .547
2. Minnesota 2-10 .568
3. St. Louis 2-10 .578
4. Jacksonville 3-9 .505
5. Washington 4-8 .453
Click to expand...

With the 5th pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Redskins select...

Robert Griffin III !
 
According to NFL.com, we have moved 'up' to #4 after Jax embarrassed Fat Albert's Bucs.

The bottom 3 are pretty much determined, only the positions can change (Indi #1, Vikings #2, Rams #3), so when/if the Vikings beat us, they'll go to #3. We can pick lower with a win, but we go to Meadowlands, host Minny, then off to Philly, so an 0-3 finish is on the cards.

So, with the 4th selection, the Washington Redskins choose .........
 
Call me optimistic but I don't think we lose out. We have played well minus one quarter against the Jets over the last month.

Whether it 4, 5, or 6 I think we should take the Heisman trophy winner!
 
Skinsfan76 said:
Call me optimistic but I don't think we lose out. We have played well minus one quarter against the Jets over the last month.

Whether it 4, 5, or 6 I think we should take the Heisman trophy winner!
Click to expand...

Yep, I don't see us losing to the Vikes. And the Giants D is gonna be like a replay of the Pats D. You just never know.
 
Goaldeje said:
Yep, I don't see us losing to the Vikes. And the Giants D is gonna be like a replay of the Pats D. You just never know.
Click to expand...

I would like to say I don't see us losing to the Vikes but I have watched this team play down to the level of the competition too much this season. Not to mention that Webb had the Vikes on the verge of coming back on the Lions for the upset yesterday.
 
Here is the latest. As always, be sure to check the very first post from Neo - weekly updates are posted there as well.

F - Indicates position(s) TBD by coin flip

1. Indianapolis 0-13 .548
2. Minnesota 2-11 .567
3. St. Louis 2-11 .582
4. Washington 4-9 .457
5/6F. Jacksonville 4-9 .505
5/6F. Carolina 4-9 .505
7. Miami 4-9 .524
8. Cleveland 4-9 .529
9. Tampa Bay 4-9 .538
10. Philadelphia 5-8 .490
11. Buffalo 5-8 .514
12. Kansas City 5-8 .524


Scenarios/games that could affect the order of the draft:

Minnesota:
Game at Washington, Home against Chicago.

St. Louis:
At home against Cincinnati and San Francisco (could rest starters)

Washington:
Road, New York Giants Home, Minnesota. Road, Philadelphia.

Jacksonville:
Road, Tennessee and home, Indianapolis.

Carolina:
Home, Tampa Bay.

Miami:
Road, Buffalo. Home, New York Jets.

Cleveland:
Road, Arizona.

Tampa Bay:
Road, Carolina.

Philadelphia:
Home, New York Jets and Washington.

Buffalo:
Home, Miami and Denver.

Kansas City:
Probably loses three remaining games.
 
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Here is the latest. As always, be sure to check the very first post from Neo - weekly updates are posted there as well.

1. Indianapolis 1-13 .536
2. Minnesota 2-12 .567
3. St. Louis 2-12 .589
4. Jacksonville 4-10 .500
5. Cleveland 4-10 .522
6. Tampa Bay 4-10 .545
7. Washington 5-9 .469
8. Carolina 5-9 .504
9. Miami 5-9 .518
10. Buffalo 5-9 .522
11. Philadelphia 6-8 .500
12. Kansas City 6-8 .513


Scenarios/games that could affect the order of the draft:

Minnesota:
Game at Washington, Home against Chicago.

St. Louis:
At home against San Francisco (could rest starters)

Jacksonville:
Road, Tennessee and home, Indianapolis.

Cleveland:
Probably loses remaining games.

Tampa Bay:
Road, Carolina.

Washington:
Home, Minnesota. Road, Philadelphia.

Carolina:
Home, Tampa Bay.

Miami:
Home, New York Jets.

Buffalo:
Probably loses remaining games.

Philadelphia:
Home, Washington.

Kansas City:
Probably loses remaining games.

Projected position for the Redskins when the season is complete: 8th.
 
I think we need to start Beck. His skill set is exactly what we need down the stretch.
 
No way man! We need to win, win, win!
Posted via BGO Mobile Device
 
I wasn't joking Mike. If we're going to have a decent chance at one of the top QBs, we'd better get our suck on in a big way and Beck is uniquely qualified in that department. :betterwink: We simply can't afford any more of this winning of meaningless games stuff.

Sometimes you gotta stoop to conquer. So take one for the team and embrace the bag my brother...at least for a couple of games anyway. :anonymous:
 
If Shanahan wants one of these QBs bad enough he'll move up and get said QB.
Posted via BGO Mobile Device
 
What happened Thursday night is huge. Really huge. If St. Louis, Minnesota, and Indy lose their remaining games, the order of selection will look as follows...


1. Minnesota 2-12 .567
2. St. Louis 2-12 .589
3. Indianapolis 2-13 .629
 
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