What do you consider 'multi-year'?
What if it's a 3 year deal with only guaranteed money in year 1? That way if he replicates 2024, you keep going. If not, you can get out without any commitment?
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Who are you keeping? (The free agency thread)
- Thread starter burgold
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What do you consider 'multi-year'?
What if it's a 3 year deal with only guaranteed money in year 1? That way if he replicates 2024, you keep going. If not, you can get out without any commitment?
SkinsNumberOne
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That may be OK, but I am not so sure he himself would agree to it. I am thinking that his performance this year gets him a legit multi-year ( > 1 year) contract with legit guaranteed money, and I think given his age/ability, he takes it. That is my prediction at least right now.
Do I think they will offer what you mentioned though? Even that, I guess I'm not sure - in the sense that, for a guy his age -- and I don't have the metrics here -- but I imagine for a guy his age, you have to expect regression. Take a quick hockey analogy here; you see Ovechkin and Crosby playing great in their late 30s, but is it the same level as their 20s? Basically, no athlete is at peak past the 30th year of life. It just isn't a thing, I think. So, you take past performance and say, what happens now? AP and others have the metrics, I guess, to make better guesses on what it means, but my thinking would be that they do not offer that type of deal either because after 1-year, the gamble is increasingly awkward each year. Could they make a contract structured accordingly to those metrics? Yes, but then the question is, can they do better/value-wise? If not, yes you make that offer. Sometimes a GM may have an idea on a particular position being fillable the next year via draft/FA, and then a contract like this just fills the gap too.
Again, this is a lot of guess-work, I don't really have time to dig into a lot of numbers, but I am basing some of this on some articles I read after the NFCCG. What I was reading at the time was to expect Fowler to be gone, and what I read made sense, but it (and I) could certainly be wrong too.
To further your point, Ovechkin is going to be in the conversation when making a Mount Rushmore of ALL TIME Greats. He's different.
Fowler's best season arguably of his career just happened. Being north of 30, I don't see a team seeing 10.5 sacks where he was in on 52% of the snaps, on a middle of the pack defense that has issues stopping the run all season, isn't exactly an endorsement for a long term commitment.
I could see us giving him a 3 year deal where there is guaranteed money into the 2nd year though. That's not to say we're going to offer him 'starter' money, but a 'multi' year package that is along the lines of a rotational pass rushing specialist isn't crazy. If there's something we can learn from Philly, and we've seen it in the past, it's that you can never have enough D-lineman. Waves of defensive pressure is huge in controlling the game, so if you can continually be rotating pieces to maintain that juice, it's big.
SkinsNumberOne
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Well, as for Ovie, I mean it may be a unique dude but the point is, north of 30, nobody's vector points up.
What it sounds like you're proposing, I believe they would be open to offering. Excellent point on rotational pieces. Look at what Dorance Armstrong did against the Lions? Key plays. You are 100% right, they need guys like Fowler, Armstrong, others as those extra D-Linemen.
It was mainly my belief that he will get offered better, elsewhere, and take it. I think his 10.5 sacks probably comes with a market price tag that... just my guess... we don't meet.
burgold
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I think this is the internal contradiction of the argument. If he is worth a better contract to someone else then he's probably worth a similar contract to us. After all, we know he fits the system and the replacement cost/learning curve may be high.
It's fair to look at Fowler and say that at his age he's probably peaked. It's also fair to say he did really well on a one-year contract previously and his play declined after that prove-it contract year. OTOH, he came through for us and he's a guy Quinn obviously likes and knows how to use. Ideally, you'd want him on a rotation versus where he can pin his ears back and rush the QB while being the gray beard grooming a rookie. I think everyone is right that there needs to be a ceiling on what we're willing to offer him, but I have always liked the idea that if you challenge a guy to prove it and they do then it's on you to hold up your end of the bargain.
The only caveat is, Fowler proved himself as a pass rusher, but did prove himself as a DE because the DE also has to set the edge and dominate in the run game. He's one dimensional. Good at that dimension which makes him valuable, but his vulnerability to the run means can only help as part of a platoon.
SkinsLife
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I dont think there will be much of a market for Fowler outside of DC.. he is seen as a system fit guy that is better used as a rotational guy and a top backup. He can produce in spots but never dominant. 3-5mil a year contract is his worth and Wash can afford it... highly doubt he will get more from anyone else
method man
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I kind of agree. Doubt he ends up with more than a 1 year deal. I could see high single digits as a possibility however. He is a one trick pony with a mediocre pressure rate. What he does well is convert pressures to sacks
Big team decisions on the vets Wagner, Chinn, and Ertz. Then what to do with Allen and Payne.
I think Ertz may be looked at as a no brainier. There a bunch of DB's that fit what this staff likes so I am not sure Chinn is automatically back. Same for Wagner who slowed even though his instinct and knowledge is off the charts.
I'd like to see these guys signed before the tampering period begins.
burgold
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I think Wagner is back because of the leadership role he took as much as anything else. Hard to picture he gets priced out of our range. I actually think Wagner might even give us a hometown discount as might Ertz. Both acted like they'd enjoy ending their career here. That could be post season euphoria though.
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I hope they keep both of those guys. They aren’t as fast as they used to be, but they both still have the instincts to do what they need to do. Both would be very good re-signings.
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I don't know if Ertz was ever fast but he's pretty much a stationary object at this point.
He is. However, he can still get off the line quickly, find cracks in the D and catch and block. It was amazing to see how JD relied on him.
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It doesn’t matter how slow you are if you can get open. Ertz knows how to get open and Daniels knew it.
method man
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We got very very lucky that Ertz was able to play a full season. He had not played more than 11 games since 2019. I don't think we can count on him being at full health again next year. I really want to see us draft a TE with a similar game as a receiver who may need some time to refine the blocking element of the game
burgold
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I think that's why we have Sinnott. Okay, that's not why, but it's why you want a developing player in the wings. Hopefully with one more offseason, he'll be ready if called upon.
method man
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They are different players. I want another guy who can consistently beat man coverage in the flats for easy completions on 3rd downs and in the red zone
burgold
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True, but hopefully Sinnott has been studying hard what Ertz is doing and it starts to click. He wasn't that guy in 2024, but that's not to say he can't become that guy.
This is where you could say we are in trouble at TE. Ertz is old and slow, Bates can block but isn't dynamic in receiving or YAC and Sinnott hasn't proven or showed much other than if he gets the ball in the open field he can be fun to watch...but is not a speedster. That said, do you not bring back Ertz or Bates and replace them with a rookie to match with the other two. I am assuming they will only want 3 TEs on the active roster
Commander Wraith
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Personally, I’d bring back Ertz, see what the draft brings, then sign a later FA if needed to add to the group (along with Turner and Yankoff).
RWJ
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Redskins S Jeremy Chinn, 3 years $18 million
Redskins P Tress Way, 3 year, $8 million
Redskins PK Austin Seibert, 2 year, $4 million
Redskins LB Bobby Wagner, 1 year $7 million
Redskins P Tress Way, 3 year, $8 million
Redskins PK Austin Seibert, 2 year, $4 million
Redskins LB Bobby Wagner, 1 year $7 million
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