Where Does the Money Go?

[Neophyte]

After listening to last night's edition of Blind Pig (great job lads...maybe Mark and I should sit out more often!), I decided to do a little research to see where the money goes. Specifically the big money contracts.

What I did - I looked at the top 10 contracts of all the teams in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. I picked this point because Washington hasn't made the Divisional Round of the playoffs since Gibbs so I feel like that should be the team's short-term goal - to compete at that level.

Why I did it - there was some good discussion around what to do with Sweat and Young now that the team has given big second contracts to both of its starting DTs. It got me wondering how we compare to the best teams in the league.

What I found was interesting. Here are the position groups, in order of the number of players, largest to smallest.

DL(18)
OL(17)
WR(9)
QB/CB(8)
RB(6)
TE(5)
LB/S(4)
ST(1)

This doesn't include Washington because we weren't in the Divisional Round of the playoff.

I am posting this because I was surprised by the results. Just this morning, I would have bet you that OL was the largest position group among the Top 8 teams. That would have been for 2 reasons. First, each team has more OLinmen than any other position group, and second, this is an offensive sport where protecting the QB is all-important. Both logic and my gut agreed that OL was where the numbers should be biggest.

If I'm really honest, I also wanted to prove Washington is doing it wrong.

KC has the biggest spread with players in 9 of the 10 position groups. KC is also the only team with a Special Teamer in the top 10 (K Harrison Butker - $5.1M against the cap)
Cincy has the lowest spread with players in only 5 of the 10 position groups. (Washington only has 5 as well)
NYG is the only team with 2 QBs in the top (this is post Daniel Jones extension)
Cincy is the only team with 4 DL
SF is the only team with less than 2 OL (Trent Williams is the highest-paid player on the team)
Philly was the only team with a QB on the list but that will change as soon as they extend Hurts

Honestly not sure what all this means at the end of the day but the exercise is interesting to me. For comparison, I think might look at the 8 teams with the worst records this year to see if there is a difference.

 

[Chris]

Nice, Bob.

What site did you use for this? I’d be interested in Washington’s positional breakdown for it’s top 10, although with the subtraction of Wentz it has now changed dramatically.

 

[Boone]

I wish there was a way to show % of cap spent on each position. It would be interesting to see what the breakdown looked like for the more successful teams and if there were definite identifiable trends or perhaps we'd find that it is all over the place?

 

[Chris]

I wish there was a way to show % of cap spent on each position. It would be interesting to see what the breakdown looked like for the more successful teams and if there were definite identifiable trends or perhaps we'd find that it is all over the place?

I thought of that, as well. My guess is that OL & DL would still be the top 2 due to the number of bodies.

 

[Boone]

Probably. Maybe average salary per position? I don't know how to get at what we're looking for exactly. Good stuff though Bob!

 

[SkinsOrlando]

Number 1 - pull out the teams that hit on starting QB's in the draft still on rookie deals, the money savings alone will skew any result. Those on second contracts the teams knew what they had. That's home front money, has to be spent. Then we'd have to really breakdown the cost benefit analysis per position, rookie, FA, cap hit long term. There's a lot of variables because look at NO, great for years, cap trouble spells doom (no they weren't in the divisional round this past year but for years were a top team). Then we have generational talent, ala Mahomes, Brady during his run, those are people that make others look better, what's the added value to each contributor on maybe the O line for the QB's greatness. This is interesting Neo but me trying to get my head deep into this when I look at numbers all freakin day just makes me want more beer.

I think it feels more like what's the money ball approach, maybe I'm wrong for where you were headed with this Neo but I think money ball works in baseball because the sample size of games is so large.

 

[Neophyte]

Nice, Bob.

What site did you use for this? I’d be interested in Washington’s positional breakdown for it’s top 10, although with the subtraction of Wentz it has now changed dramatically.

Apologies, Chris. I meant to include that information so folks knew where I got my information.

This all came from Spotrac.

Washington's positional breakdown, after releasing Wentz and McCain, extending Payne, and signing our new Free Agents, looks like this:

2 - WR (McLaurin, Samuel)
2 - OL (Roullier, Leno)
1 - TE (Thomas)
4 - DL (Allen, Payne, Sweat, Young)
1 - CB (Fuller)

Our new backup QB just misses out on the Top at #11.

 

[Neophyte]

Number 1 - pull out the teams that hit on starting QB's in the draft still on rookie deals, the money savings alone will skew any result. Those on second contracts the teams knew what they had. That's home front money, has to be spent. Then we'd have to really breakdown the cost benefit analysis per position, rookie, FA, cap hit long term. There's a lot of variables because look at NO, great for years, cap trouble spells doom (no they weren't in the divisional round this past year but for years were a top team). Then we have generational talent, ala Mahomes, Brady during his run, those are people that make others look better, what's the added value to each contributor on maybe the O line for the QB's greatness. This is interesting Neo but me trying to get my head deep into this when I look at numbers all freakin day just makes me want more beer.

I think it feels more like what's the money ball approach, maybe I'm wrong for where you were headed with this Neo but I think money ball works in baseball because the sample size of games is so large.

I may or may not have done most of this work over a beer (or two), SO.

Every team in the Final 8 has at least one QB in the Top 10 except for Philly and with them talking to Hurts about an extension, I that its only a matter of time.

The NYG have 2 QBs in their Top 5 with Jones on his new extension and Tyrod Taylor as his backup.

If the QB is on a second contract, the QB is the top contract on the team (KC, Buffalo, Dallas, NYG)

Cincy, SF, and Jax still have starting QBs on rookie deals but they were all 1st round picks and are all now working on at least their 3rd year (4th in the case of Burrow) so not so cheap anymore.

It's fair to say there is a little Money Ball in this for sure, but that isn't what I intended. I was looking for trends, specifically around the OL v DL spending and I managed to disprove my own theory that successful teams have more big contracts on the OL than they do on the DL.

Surprise!

I'm definitely going to do the bottom 8 teams tomorrow, just to see if the breakdown is much different.

 

[Neophyte]

So, the breakdown of the Bottom 8 vs the Top 8 is interesting.

How I determined Top 8 and Bottom 8 - Top 8 were the 8 teams that advanced to the Divisional Round of the playoffs and the Bottom 8 are the teams that would have drafted in the first 8 slots in the 2023 draft if no trades had occurred.

Where I got my contract data - Spotrac

Data Used - current as of this morning so inclusive of all moves that have happened in this offseason through Noon today. That means these numbers could change next week, over the weekend, or even before MikefromOH finishes his next beer.

Position Group	Top 8 Teams	Bottom 8 Teams
QB	8	7
RB	6	5
WR	9	11
OL	17	20
TE	5	5
DL	18	15
LB	4	7
CB	8	4
S	4	5
ST	1	1

While there isn't a huge difference in the raw numbers, I do find it interesting that the bottom teams favor big contracts for LBs and Safeties while being less interested in CBs.

Where I saw the big differences is on the team by team level. Very little in the Top 8 struck me as stupid while a lot of stuff had me shaking my head in the Bottom 8.

Glaring examples:
ATL has two TEs in their Top 10 and no WRs.
ATL has Taylor Heinicke in their Top 10, while current starter Desmond Ridder is 24th on their cap list.
LAR has 8 offensive players in the Top 10 and only 2 defenders
AZ has 2 QBs and 2 Safeties in their Top 10, and only 1 Lineman of any type
LV has 7 offensive players, including 3 WRs, and only 3 defensive players (all DL too)

The best teams are simply better balanced in terms of where they put big money and, in this regard, Washington appears on the right path to me. The team currently looks a lot more like the Top 8 than it does the Bottom 8.

Things might look different to me if I broke out the DL into DTs and Edge, and broke out the OL into Interior and T. (maybe later)

 

[MikefromOH]

Did my name get mentioned in your post?

I assure you I am not rich, my good sir lol

 

[Boone]

Again Bob, great stuff