BGO Blind Pig: Commanders 2023 Free Agency Edition

[Boone]

The guys huddle to discuss the Commanders free agency moves so far - coach firings, player departures, and of course some key additions to the 2023 Washington roster...

 

[Neophyte]

LOL - that joke won't ever die, Derek.

 

[SilentThreat]

which one?

 

[Neophyte]

The opener - "best QB since..."

 

[SkinsOrlando]

I'm neither disappointed nor ecstatic about any of our FA moves, losing Holcomb sucks (still haven't heard the money details yet) but our pickups seem to be in positions of need and/or depth. As far as the O line from last year goes, ST made a valid point, I'm not sure a group of studs could handle the 5 wide zero backfield 7 step drop back sets against a blitz and be successful. That O line was built for quick set ups and running the ball. Maybe the guys we have look better in Eric B's system?? We still need a LT that can root himself into the ground and be an anchor so hopefully we go that way in the draft. A TE at 16 hmm, lets look at some history.

Here's the 1st round pick TE's since 2000

2000: Bubba Franks -14 - Packers, Anthony Becht - 27 - Jets
2001: Todd Heap - 31 - Ravens
2002: Jeremy Shockey - 14 - Giants, Dan Graham - 21 - Pats, Jerramy Stevens - 28 - Seahawks
2003: Dallas Clark - 24 -Colts
2004: Kellen Winslow Jr - 6 - Browns, Ben Watson - 32 - Pats
2005: Heath Miller -30 - Virginia
2006: Vernon Davis - 6 - 9'ers, Marcedes Lewis 28 - Jax
2007: Greg Olsen - 31 - Panthers
2008: Dustin Keller - 30 - Jets
2009: Brandon Pettigrew - 20 - Lions
2010: Jermaine Gresham - 21 - Bengals
2011:
2012:
2013: Tyler Eifert - 21 - Bengals
2014: Eric Ebron - 10 - Lions
2015:
2016:
2017: O.J. Howards - 19 - Bucs, Evan Engram - 23 - Giants, David Njoku - 29 - Browns
2018: Hayden Hurst - 25 - Ravens
2019: T.J. Hockenson - 8 - Lions, Noah Frant - 20 - Broncos
2020:
2021: Kyle Pitts - 4 - Falcons
2022:

A couple players with some good years but nothing to write home about for longevity and lights out game changers. For most of these picks I feel the beginning of the movie Major League when they're reading the roster with everyone saying "who the fuck are deez guys."

I'd stay away from TE at 16 as it appears the hidden gems in the later rounds is where it's at. Now Chris stated he'd take the 2nd best LT if on the board, but what if the number 1 CB is still there?

Good pod gents especially with nothing SPECTACULAR as far as FA signings go. My thoughts on Payne have become more favorable after the stats comparison by Chris as well.

 

[Chris]

Only numbers I’ve heard for Holcomb is 3 years for up to 18m but no other details.

 

[Chris]

I'm neither disappointed nor ecstatic about any of our FA moves, losing Holcomb sucks (still haven't heard the money details yet) but our pickups seem to be in positions of need and/or depth. As far as the O line from last year goes, ST made a valid point, I'm not sure a group of studs could handle the 5 wide zero backfield 7 step drop back sets against a blitz and be successful. That O line was built for quick set ups and running the ball. Maybe the guys we have look better in Eric B's system?? We still need a LT that can root himself into the ground and be an anchor so hopefully we go that way in the draft. A TE at 16 hmm, lets look at some history.

Here's the 1st round pick TE's since 2000

2000: Bubba Franks -14 - Packers, Anthony Becht - 27 - Jets
2001: Todd Heap - 31 - Ravens
2002: Jeremy Shockey - 14 - Giants, Dan Graham - 21 - Pats, Jerramy Stevens - 28 - Seahawks
2003: Dallas Clark - 24 -Colts
2004: Kellen Winslow Jr - 6 - Browns, Ben Watson - 32 - Pats
2005: Heath Miller -30 - Virginia
2006: Vernon Davis - 6 - 9'ers, Marcedes Lewis 28 - Jax
2007: Greg Olsen - 31 - Panthers
2008: Dustin Keller - 30 - Jets
2009: Brandon Pettigrew - 20 - Lions
2010: Jermaine Gresham - 21 - Bengals
2011:
2012:
2013: Tyler Eifert - 21 - Bengals
2014: Eric Ebron - 10 - Lions
2015:
2016:
2017: O.J. Howards - 19 - Bucs, Evan Engram - 23 - Giants, David Njoku - 29 - Browns
2018: Hayden Hurst - 25 - Ravens
2019: T.J. Hockenson - 8 - Lions, Noah Frant - 20 - Broncos
2020:
2021: Kyle Pitts - 4 - Falcons
2022:

A couple players with some good years but nothing to write home about for longevity and lights out game changers. For most of these picks I feel the beginning of the movie Major League when they're reading the roster with everyone saying "who the fuck are deez guys."

I'd stay away from TE at 16 as it appears the hidden gems in the later rounds is where it's at. Now Chris stated he'd take the 2nd best LT if on the board, but what if the number 1 CB is still there?

Good pod gents especially with nothing SPECTACULAR as far as FA signings go. My thoughts on Payne have become more favorable after the stats comparison by Chris as well.

That’s a good question, SO.

Tough choice, for sure. CB is the only other position I would consider. I am admittedly enamored with Christian Gonzales from Oregon, though I doubt he will be there. I have always been a proponent of building inside out though so…

 

[SkinsOrlando]

That’s a good question, SO.

Tough choice, for sure. CB is the only other position I would consider. I am admittedly enamored with Christian Gonzales from Oregon, though I doubt he will be there. I have always been a proponent of building inside out though so…

Understood, give me the big uglies almost all day, every day but if you've got a potential 10 year shut down corner sitting in front of you, do you pass for the 2nd best LT? It's a conundrum, one can take away 1/3rd of the field on offense for defensive penetration and one can take away 1/3rd of the field plus on defense limiting opponents to deal with our already nasty front 4.

 

[Boone]

I'm really not a 'best player available' guy. I think the problem with that whole approach is that it ignores 1 thing - the NFL draft is an absolute crapshoot.

So - you are sometimes going to end up with 'the guy we thought was the best player available who isn't and who doesn't even fill a glaring need'.

I'm much more open to 'best player available who fills a glaring need'. Even if that player turns out not to be as good as you thought he would be, you've probably still elevated/improved a weak position group.

I'm with Chris in the first round. Take the best OL available. I could also live with corner, but I think there's a higher bust factor with DBs than there is with OL so I'd prefer we just grab a super solid O lineman and turn in that card.

 

[Chris]

Yeah, but the second best oline candidate might turn out to be the best…or a relative bust. Same with CB. Even the best CBs can be had if the QB has time.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

And the best o lineman can't stop LT

 

[Chris]

Lawrence Taylor? If Leno played against LT Washington would need 8 QBs.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

Lawrence Taylor? If Leno played against LT Washington would need 8 QBs.

Not if Heinicke was back there

 

[Chris]

Of course not.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Enjoyed the pod gentlemen...you too Boone.

On the FA front, looks like one of ST's guys just signed with another team.

 

[SkinsOrlando]

I'm really not a 'best player available' guy. I think the problem with that whole approach is that it ignores 1 thing - the NFL draft is an absolute crapshoot.

So - you are sometimes going to end up with 'the guy we thought was the best player available who isn't and who doesn't even fill a glaring need'.

I'm much more open to 'best player available who fills a glaring need'. Even if that player turns out not to be as good as you thought he would be, you've probably still elevated/improved a weak position group.

I'm with Chris in the first round. Take the best OL available. I could also live with corner, but I think there's a higher bust factor with DBs than there is with OL so I'd prefer we just grab a super solid O lineman and turn in that card.

Found this article from 2015, I wish it had more recent data but it analyzes first round picks by position over 25 years for All Pro, Pro Bowl and Bust level. Maybe the data still holds relatively stable if we remove the first seven years and add the last 7 years but that is the unknown I wish to know but sure as hell am not taking the time to do it.

bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

Edit: for some reason when I paste the link with https://(bleacherrport etc.) it won't show up.