The HC Dan Quinn Discussion Thread

[Riggo44]

Doubtful. If you're second guessing yourself like that, you've already made a decision.

 

[DWinzit]

Doubtful. If you're second guessing yourself like that, you've already made a decision.

It's got to enter his mind regardless

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

Context matters.

I will leave this here because it is highly relevant to this thread.

The reality is the Bills have one of those great QBs (according to most talent evaluators and to the Bills org I gather). So now it is like, OK, we are not getting where we need to go; what do we look at changing? The FO eval is, did we provide the right talent level. If so, then we move on to the next rung. Are they (the talent) getting prepared well enough?

So I guess there is this idea for Buffalo that the talent is really good, but the prep isn't A+. So, you get a great record that gets more put on the talent general level as opposed to the prep. Is the HC a "force multiplier" the way he needs to be? If not... he goes.

For the Commanders, the same could happen. Again, you have a QB that generally gets a lot of respect. Is it Josh Allen level? No way. Allen's been doing it way too long to be similar. From a general "talent" perspective, though - it could be looked at in that lens. Then, you start looking at other parts of the team, and then finally - are we getting that "force multiplier" from the HC?

I mean, it depends on how you analyze, but I think the above is likely how Buffalo went down (to some degree; it kind of explains how Beane gets a promotion and the HC gets fired). The same could happen in Commander-land, if the chips fall a certain way. As others have said, it helps if the GM has a good relationship with ownership and can sell them that story. I do think the BIlls have a lot of that story in the media already (that the team is well-built talent-wise; not the same story here!).

 

[Chris]

Are we getting that ‘force multiplier’ from the GM?

 

[Riggo44]

Are we getting that ‘force multiplier’ from the GM?

Is that from Star Wars or something?

 

[Boone]

May the force multiplier be with you

 

[Riggo44]

And also with you.

 

[DWinzit]

 

[burgold]

From the recent discussions around this forum, I wonder what Quinn's reputation is around the league versus the board. Around the board, the overwhelming attitude is that he is dead man walking. For whatever reason, I don't think that's his rep around the league. I still think he's liked and respected and that there's belief he can and will be given an opportunity to turn this season around.

 

[DWinzit]

From the recent discussions around this forum, I wonder what Quinn's reputation is around the league versus the board. Around the board, the overwhelming attitude is that he is dead man walking. For whatever reason, I don't think that's his rep around the league. I still think he's liked and respected and that there's belief he can and will be given an opportunity to turn this season around.

At least at a glance I'd agree with you. Additionally, AP's public stance of being 100% behind him has certainly further backed those thoughts.

 

[Boone]

The question isn't whether he'll be given an opportunity to turn last season around (I have seen no one advocate for him being fired now). The question is, how long will he be given to turn last season around.

 

[Pokey]

^^^
That's what I'm curious about. What scenarios see Quinn moving on, and what will keep him?

Obviously, another 12-5 like season, he's good and another 5-12 he's out, but what about the most likely outcome, something between?

 

[burgold]

The question isn't whether he'll be given an opportunity to turn last season around (I have seen no one advocate for him being fired now). The question is, how long will he be given to turn last season around.

See, this to me flows along with "the dead man walking" motif.

The board seems to think he's on the verge of getting fired if he doesn't get us back to 12-5 next year. Most concede that since he hasn't been fired he's at least safe to start the year, but they think he's a goner. He either won't survive to the end of the season or won't survive to year four. I don't know that NFL people share that sentiment yet. I'm not even sure how warm people inside the NFL consider Quinn's seat. If I had to guess based on the lack of discussion, I'd say it's more likely that he finish out his contract than be fired next year.

The thing that holds me back from completely feeling that way is that most teams do not like having their coach serve out a lame duck year. So, at the end of year three there often is a discussion about moving on or extension. So, if the team bellyflops again next year he may indeed be gone. I think that the prevailing wisdom is that Quinn won't bellyflop that enough crazy things happened that it's just unlikely to see a repeat.

Put differently, if there was such a thing as an NFL coaching meat thermometer, I suspect insiders think Quinn's internal temperature is closer to medium than well done or so charred we better order a pizza.

 

[burgold]

^^^
That's what I'm curious about. What scenarios see Quinn moving on, and what will keep him?

Obviously, another 12-5 like season, he's good and another 5-12 he's out, but what about the most likely outcome, something between?

I think anywhere above eight wins and he's guaranteed a fourth season. I'm basing this on the degree of patience Harris exhibited when trying to rebuild the 76ers in the NBA. He just doesn't seem like the kind of owner who has an itchy trigger finger.

 

[Boone]

I haven't seen anyone put a number on what 'success' in 2026 looks like. But it needs to look better than 2025

And you are saying 'dead man walking' - I think most are saying if we aren't much better in 2026 than we were in 2025, his seat should be warm. I'm not all that convinced he won't be given his full contract. But by definition, 2 bad seasons out of 3 is not the direction we want to be heading in.

 

[CapsCommies]

See, this to me flows along with "the dead man walking" motif.

The board seems to think he's on the verge of getting fired if he doesn't get us back to 12-5 next year. Most concede that since he hasn't been fired he's at least safe to start the year, but they think he's a goner. He either won't survive to the end of the season or won't survive to year four. I don't know that NFL people share that sentiment yet. I'm not even sure how warm people inside the NFL consider Quinn's seat. If I had to guess based on the lack of discussion, I'd say it's more likely that he finish out his contract than be fired next year.

The thing that holds me back from completely feeling that way is that most teams do not like having their coach serve out a lame duck year. So, at the end of year three there often is a discussion about moving on or extension. So, if the team bellyflops again next year he may indeed be gone. I think that the prevailing wisdom is that Quinn won't bellyflop that enough crazy things happened that it's just unlikely to see a repeat.

Put differently, if there was such a thing as an NFL coaching meat thermometer, I suspect insiders think Quinn's internal temperature is closer to medium than well done or so charred we better order a pizza.

HC contracts are customarily five years, no? So he would have two more seasons (2026 ad 2027) before AP has to make a decision about extension vs. firing.

I think a middling 7-10 season with signs of growth is as low as he can go to get his fourth season. Can say offense under Blough is evolving, need to keep building roster but we now have our identity on both sides of the ball, etc.

2027 is the last year Jayden is on his rookie deal assuming he gets extended after next season, so it's make or break for a few reasons.

 

[method man]

I haven't seen anyone put a number on what 'success' in 2026 looks like. But it needs to look better than 2025

And you are saying 'dead man walking' - I think most are saying if we aren't much better in 2026 than we were in 2025, his seat should be warm. I'm not all that convinced he won't be given his full contract. But by definition, 2 bad seasons out of 3 is not the direction we want to be heading in.

I think if he finishes 8-9 or under, he should be gone. Even if he goes 9-8, depending on the why and context to this (like a hot start with a collapse), he should be gone.

In this scenario, I wonder whether they keep AP. He is definitely smart but also very obviously arrogant as skinsinparadise likes to point out. He needs to have both a plus draft and a plus FA class this offseason. So far, he’s had 1 good draft and 1 bad draft and 1 good FA period and 1 bad one. So he’s batting 500

 

[burgold]

You might be right. I may be confusing coaching contracts with rookie contracts.

 

[method man]

HC contracts are customarily five years, no? So he would have two more seasons (2026 ad 2027) before AP has to make a decision about extension vs. firing.

I think a middle 7-10 season with signs of growth is as low as he can go to get his fourth season. Can say offense under Blough is evolving, need to keep building roster but we now have our identity on both sides of the ball, etc.

2027 is the last year Jayden is on his rookie deal assuming he gets extended after next season, so it's make or break for a few reasons.

With a bounceback from Jayden and some roster improvement, this becomes a very attractive destination for better coaches. If the offense doesn’t perform up to snuff, hopefully this ownership group is smart enough to hire an elite offensive playcaller as HC.

As I stated earlier in this thread, my guess is the highly underrated Shane Steichen comes free. Going to be very tough for them to make the playoffs with JAX and HOU and their loaded rosters in that division, especially with Daniel Jones coming off a torn Achilles

 

[Conn]

From the recent discussions around this forum, I wonder what Quinn's reputation is around the league versus the board. Around the board, the overwhelming attitude is that he is dead man walking. For whatever reason, I don't think that's his rep around the league. I still think he's liked and respected and that there's belief he can and will be given an opportunity to turn this season around.

That’s probably why all of our hires have been low experience in-house promotions or family members of FO execs. Because people around the league see our coaching staff situation as super stable and safe to jump on board with.