The HC Dan Quinn Discussion Thread

[Voice_of_Reason]

My point was that ranking 28th in rushing might have been the motivation behind MacDonald’s decision to make a change at OC. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Yeah, I wasn't picking on your post, just going back to the original reason it was being discussed, that Macdonald had foresight and our offenses were similar in 2024, which I don't really think was true.

 

[Chris]

Yeah, I wasn't picking on your post, just going back to the original reason it was being discussed, that Macdonald had foresight and our offenses were similar in 2024, which I don't really think was true.

I posted those stats to agree with you on that. They seemed sus to me on first glance, too.

 

[skinzplay]

Can you provide context for these number? They don't really jive with numbers I've heard before.

Also remember we didn't have anywhere near the talent on offense that Seattle had in 2024.

From the drop-down menu you can select various categories (passing, rushing, scoring, total):

2024 NFL Offense Passing Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Find a list of the Offense Passing team stat leaders for the 2024 NFL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

Yeah, AP and DQ stepped into a situation where there was a comparative talent deficit at basically every position, and even on the depth chart for every position.

 

[Chris]

From the drop-down menu you can select various categories (passing, rushing, scoring, total):

2024 NFL Offense Passing Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Find a list of the Offense Passing team stat leaders for the 2024 NFL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

Yeah, AP and DQ stepped into a situation where there was a comparative talent deficit at basically every position, and even on the depth chart for every position.

Your original post stated that Seattle rated 12th in scoring while Washington rated 18th. Using the same data provider, the actual ratings for scoring were Seattle 12th and Washington 5th. (Unless you are coming at that number in a different way, idk)

It also didn’t mention that Seattle ranked 28 in rushing YPG, which I find relevant to any discussion of possible reasons for MacDonald’s decision to make a change at OC beyond his foresight or wisdom.

 

[skinzplay]

Your original post stated that Seattle rated 12th in scoring while Washington rated 18th. Using the same data provider, the actual ratings for scoring were Seattle 12th and Washington 5th. (Unless you are coming at that number in a different way, idk)

It also didn’t mention that Seattle ranked 28 in rushing YPG, which I find relevant to any discussion of possible reasons for MacDonald’s decision to make a change at OC beyond his foresight or wisdom.

Thanks for pointing that out. Looks like I pasted the ESPN link, when I had actually consulted this one:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/index.htm

I agree with the lack of production in the running game being an impetus for moving on from Grubb. They did a helluva lot better this past season; in the top 12, I think.

 

[Chris]

Thanks for pointing that out. Looks like I pasted the ESPN link, when I had actually consulted this one:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/index.htm

I agree with the lack of production in the running game being an impetus for moving on from Grubb. They did a helluva lot better this past season; in the top 12, I think.

Thanks. Using that PFR site and referencing scoring alone, the rankings don’t change: Washington 5th, Seattle 18th. An additional interesting factor into points scored is that Washington scored 1 td off an interception. Seattle scored 1 on a kickoff return, 2 on fumble returns, and 2 on interception returns.

So net points scored by true offensive play during the season- Seattle scored 345 points in 17 games, Washington scored 479 points over 17 games.

 

[skinzplay]

Thanks. Using that PFR site and referencing scoring alone, the rankings don’t change: Washington 5th, Seattle 18th. An additional interesting factor into points scored is that Washington scored 1 td off an interception. Seattle scored 1 on a kickoff return, 2 on fumble returns, and 2 on interception returns.

So net points scored by true offensive play during the season- Seattle scored 345 points in 17 games, Washington scored 479 points over 17 games.

I still see 12 and 18 for scoring. You're referring to total offense, which is where we're 5 and Seattle was 18.

 

[Chris]

I still see 12 and 18 for scoring. You're referring to total offense, which is where we're 5 and Seattle was 18.

Using your referenced PFR site I find Seattle trailing Washington in every category except for passing offense; points scored, total offense yards & yards per play, and rushing offense.

 

[Chris]

For the record I consider points scored as the most important metric for wins and losses. But, I’m strange like that. 😉

 

[skinzplay]

I'm not sure there is any kind of argument or disagreement here, only divergent references to team stats. I only stated what I saw on the site, as they had compiled the data. In my reply to VOR, I was simply sharing the site where I got the rankings because he asked about it. Feel free to take up any shortcomings with those who compile the data for those sites. We've already acknowledged that the lack of production in the run game was a reason for moving on from Grubb. The problem with our running game, despite higher production, is that too much of that production came from JD5; that's not sustainable.

 

[Chris]

I'm not sure there is any kind of argument or disagreement here, only divergent references to team stats. I only stated what I saw on the site, as they had compiled the data. In my reply to VOR, I was simply sharing the site where I got the rankings because he asked about it. Feel free to take up any shortcomings with those who compile the data for those sites. We've already acknowledged that the lack of production in the run game was a reason for moving on from Grubb. The problem with our running game, despite higher production, is that too much of that production came from JD5; that's not sustainable.

The only reason I went down this rabbit hole was because of this thought from you-

“I really applaud Macdonald for having the foresight/wisdom (whatever you wanna call it) to fire Grubb and replace him with Kubiak even though they had an impressive offensive showing, overall, in his inaugural season.”

I didn’t think that Seattle’s offensive performance was all that impressive. I wanted to dig into the stats to see for myself.

As far as the stats go…ESPN and PFR’s data is aligned. I’m not sure what you are seeing that I’m not. 🤷🏻‍♂️

The scoring statistics speak for themselves. Washington was clearly much better at scoring than Seattle in 2024. Even more so when special teams and defensive tds are taken out.

 

[skinzplay]

I don't think we ever disagreed on anything here. Scoring is indeed great, but doesn't always translate to what we all ultimately want. Bills fans would trade that for a SB or two, no doubt.

I say we let the thread return to its regularly scheduled programming: HC DQ Discussion

 

[CapsCommies]

I feel like Quinn is taking an outsized share of the blame for a regression that is at least as much Adam Peters' responsibility.

 

[Chris]

I don't think we ever disagreed on anything here. Scoring is indeed great, but doesn't always translate to what we all ultimately want. Bills fans would trade that for a SB or two, no doubt.

I say we let the thread return to its regularly scheduled programming: HC DQ Discussion

We do disagree though. We disagree on your thought that I highlighted a couple of posts back.

Even though Washington ranked 32nd in Total Defense to Seattle’s 6th, Washington still had a better season in 2024. There is a reason MacDonald made a change in OC (along with QB) but I don’t personally think that it was primarily due to his having foresight or wisdom. I think he merely made an informed decision based on performance. Something Quinn failed to do with his DC.

(See how I got this back to the intended thread topic?) 😎

 

[burgold]

Probably not, but I wonder if Jayden't virtual practices will help him to learn to read defenses from under center. He can certainly simulate it. The question is, how well does it translate and how sophisticated are the virtual defenses programmed that he has to learn to read.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I feel like Quinn is taking an outsized share of the blame for a regression that is at least as much Adam Peters' responsibility.

I think thats partially true. But honestly, the biggest reason for the regression is injuries. And it wasn’t just old guys getting hurt, it was literally everyone on the team.

I think sometimes everybody gets more blame for just plain bad dumb luck.

The only player whose injury I put on Peters is Noah Brown. Dude has been injured his entire career, had a spleen injury (or something like that) and the still resigned him and expected him to play.

Thats the Bruce Allen type stuff which drives me crazy.

Most of the other guys who got hurt didn’t have significant injury histories. I mean, just about every player in the NFL gets hurt at some point every season. So clearly some have missed time.

But Brown shouldn’t have been signed.

Apart from that, there was a bunch of of really bad luck.

Which is not really on either Quinn or Peters.

 

[CapsCommies]

I think thats partially true. But honestly, the biggest reason for the regression is injuries. And it wasn’t just old guys getting hurt, it was literally everyone on the team.

I think sometimes everybody gets more blame for just plain bad dumb luck.

The only player whose injury I put on Peters is Noah Brown. Dude has been injured his entire career, had a spleen injury (or something like that) and the still resigned him and expected him to play.

Thats the Bruce Allen type stuff which drives me crazy.

Most of the other guys who got hurt didn’t have significant injury histories. I mean, just about every player in the NFL gets hurt at some point every season. So clearly some have missed time.

But Brown shouldn’t have been signed.

Apart from that, there was a bunch of of really bad luck.

Which is not really on either Quinn or Peters.

Yes and no. An aging roster is more likely to get injured. A roster that isn't conditioned in camp/preseason is more likely to get injured.

That's not to nitpick any one injury, and the most impactful is obviously Jayden which wasn't age or conditioning-related. But I don't think they're totally off the hook on injuries or the depth (or lack thereof) revealed by the injuries.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Yes and no. An aging roster is more likely to get injured. A roster that isn't conditioned in camp/preseason is more likely to get injured.

That's not to nitpick any one injury, and the most impactful is obviously Jayden which wasn't age or conditioning-related. But I don't think they're totally off the hook on injuries or the depth (or lack thereof) revealed by the injuries.

I don’t entirely disagree, and the camp conditioning thing is a somewhat debated topic, but I tend to agree better and more contact in camp is better for the overall health of the team based on what I’ve seen and read. But it’s still not an exact science.

As far as aged roster, there were young guys and older guys who all got hurt.

Sometimes that just happens. Was it the year we won the division with a losing record in 2020, we played and beat the 49ers and it was mostly because they had like 80% of their roster out?

Sometimes it just happens and it’s bad luck.

They should look at it and see if there is a trend, and make changes. But on the flip side, the team was of similar construct in 2024 with the same coaches and they enjoyed really good injury luck.

So it’s possible it was just bad luck.

 

[Conn]

Would anyone be opposed to taking another hit for one more season if that meant Mike Tomlin is our next head coach?

Tomlin as our HC would be the last thing I’d want. I’ve followed PIT pretty closely for the past decade because a couple of their beat guys are also pretty big into the draft and I started following them ages ago. And Tomlin was many years past needing to go. Tomlin is a dinosaur. His streak of winning seasons is technically impressive. Majority of those teams had zero ceiling and he made the decisions every offseason that kept them in OC + QB hell. Steelers fans love and respect Tomlin. Most of them also think he needed to go 5+ years ago and that ownership was too precious about his personal legacy with them and their reputation as a place with very few HC hires.

I’d be out on this operation immediately if Tomlin were hired.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Tomlin as our HC would be the last thing I’d want. I’ve followed PIT pretty closely for the past decade because a couple of their beat guys are also pretty big into the draft and I started following them ages ago. And Tomlin was many years past needing to go. Tomlin is a dinosaur. His streak of winning seasons is technically impressive. Majority of those teams had zero ceiling and he made the decisions every offseason that kept them in OC + QB hell. Steelers fans love and respect Tomlin. Most of them also think he needed to go 5+ years ago and that ownership was too precious about his personal legacy with them and their reputation as a place with very few HC hires.

I’d be out on this operation immediately if Tomlin were hired.

Eh. I think you might have found a bunch of Eagles fan saying the same thing about Reid. And as it turned out, both sides might have been right. Reid has now won more games with KC then with the Eagles and is the winningest coach for both organizations. But he clearly wasn’t washed up.

As far as Tomlin goes, I’m not sure how many of the decisions on personnel have been his. I find it pretty impressive Tomin has kept the team competitive when they haven’t found a QB since Ben retired. And the last year or two of Ben wasn’t great either.

I am predisposed to like Tomlin, and I admit my bias, he’s a fellow alum of William and Mary. But I think he might reinvent himself a bit with a year off.

He wouldn’t be my first choice. But if he wants to coach, somebody is going to hire him. And I think a lot of fan bases will be skeptical. But I’d be very surprised if he isn’t success in his second stint.