The first Jayden Daniels Super Bowl window has shut. Hard.

[Riggo44]

Not discounting ability on Maye’s part but I would think it is mainly a function of scheme and playcalling (timing of plays, formations, motion) that is the main contributor to the first read being open more consistently.

And every defense he faced being a blazing trash fire.

 

[Chris]

Yes this should be a great example of an OC who is making his QB look better than he is.

Not discounting ability on Maye’s part but I would think it is mainly a function of scheme and playcalling (timing of plays, formations, motion) that is the main contributor to the first read being open more consistently.

Not to discount your point (at all) but that wouldn’t be necessary if he were truly ‘him’ as some here believe.

 

[skinsmarydu]

Not to discount your point (at all) but that wouldn’t be necessary if he were truly ‘him’ as some here believe.

And let's not discount Vrabel. (That tweet about what the current Titans could be, had they kept all those pieces, comes to mind.)

He was a TE there, iirc. Let's not forget that, either.

 

[Faithful Fan]

View attachment 13780

I’m not sure how much this stat really tells us about a QB. High percentage throwing to your first read could be good or bad: it could mean you have a quick release or fast decision making, or it could mean locking on to your first read or not getting through your progressions. It could also be more about circumstances, e.g. bad pass protection forcing quick throws, play calling, defensive game plans, etc.

I could not find the data this post is based on, but of the three players it lists as leaders in the category, two are among the league’s passing leaders and the third is the reigning Super Bowl MVP.

I would also add that Jayden Daniels was known for high success rate on his first read last year, so it is probably not of much use in contrasting him and Maye:



I could see this data being useful from a game-planing perspective, but I don’t think it’s a great metric for evaluating quarterbacks.

 

[Faithful Fan]

And let's not discount Vrabel. (That tweet about what the current Titans could be, had they kept all those pieces, comes to mind.)

He was a TE there, iirc. Let's not forget that, either.

Vrabel was a linebacker, but he occasionally played TE in goal line situations.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Asked how the Commanders can get back on track in 2026, players offered wide-ranging answers. McLaurin hopes Washington turns up the physicality and competitiveness in training camp, proposing “more scrimmage-style practices can allow for those more competitive gamelike situations.”

Some players traced the lack of rhythm back to organized team activities and training camp. McLaurin missed the bulk of both while agitating for a contract extension, and he has since acknowledged the time away might have contributed to his slow start to the season.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2026/01/02/commanders-exit-interviews/

 

[skinsinparadise]

lol, i like how Standig presents it below. On plenty of points, I've defended Peters but on the WRs, I'll keep slamming him, what a crap job IMO he did on that spot.

Oh, No-ah
​

Noah Brown crumpling to the ground with a knee injury during mandatory minicamp should have created urgency to add receiver depth. Spoiler: it didn’t — even with the Z receiver missing training camp and the Chris Moore/K.J. Osborn/Michael Gallup triumvirate inspiring minimal confidence.

 

[Chris]

I could see this data being useful from a game-planing perspective, but I don’t think it’s a great metric for evaluating quarterbacks.

Of course you don’t (taking into account blind spots and confirmation biases). 😉

How about the second part where Maye ranks 22nd in DVOA on non-first read throws?

 

[SkinsNumberOne]

I would also add that Jayden Daniels was known for high success rate on his first read last year, so it is probably not of much use in contrasting him and Maye

I could see this data being useful from a game-planing perspective, but I don’t think it’s a great metric for evaluating quarterbacks.

The first part makes sense to me if true and I remember it being said at some points well. This was a major criticism of RG3. However, I do remember at various times, announcers pointed out JD5 going to later reads. A lot of times last year, he was keeping his eyes up downfield while scrambling. He seemed to struggle more this year with that, and DQ has mentioned it multiple times in pressers where reporters asked him on what 5 needed work.

However, the second point above just is not true. As in, we can’t make it mean a QB is good or bad, but it points to scheme and OC helping the QB a lot. For the QB side then, it is a “not enough info” to some degree because one distinguishing characteristic for QBs is definitely related to them processing (recognizing defenses) and going through progressions faster. First read throws don’t mean a QB can’t do that, but they do mean an OC has set the QB up for success!

 

[Faithful Fan]

How about the second part where Maye ranks 22nd in DVOA on non-first read throws?

I guess you found a nit to pick, I just think it’s a singular data point that doesn’t tell us much.

Of course you can find weaknesses in any player. I suppose this oddly specific statistic about Maye’s first-read DVOA might point to one, and defensive coordinators would be wise to take advantage of it. I would also look at Maye’s very high number of sacks if I were finding fault in his game.

None of that changes the fact Drake Maye is the favorite to win the league MVP this season. He is easily among the top few passers in the league by almost all the normal metrics. He has the highest QB rating in the NFL, the second highest QBR, the highest completion percentage, the fourth most passing yards, and the third most passing touchdowns.

When I compare that to Jayden’s horrible season, I worry we picked the wrong guy, but I allow that it is still too soon to say. Maybe Jayden stays healthy next year and proves to be durable over a long career. Maybe Maye falls off against a more difficult schedule. Nobody knows the future. Hopefully time will reveal me to be mistaken in my concerns about Jayden, who is still our best hope going forward.

 

[Faithful Fan]

The first part makes sense to me if true and I remember it being said at some points well. This was a major criticism of RG3. However, I do remember at various times, announcers pointed out JD5 going to later reads. A lot of times last year, he was keeping his eyes up downfield while scrambling. He seemed to struggle more this year with that, and DQ has mentioned it multiple times in pressers where reporters asked him on what 5 needed work.

However, the second point above just is not true. As in, we can’t make it mean a QB is good or bad, but it points to scheme and OC helping the QB a lot. For the QB side then, it is a “not enough info” to some degree because one distinguishing characteristic for QBs is definitely related to them processing (recognizing defenses) and going through progressions faster. First read throws don’t mean a QB can’t do that, but they do mean an OC has set the QB up for success!

I don’t understand what I said that isn’t true, but I agree with this for the most part, including the idea that Jayden could also improve beyond his first read, but especially the idea that this particular stat is “not enough info” to evaluate a quarterback.

 

[CuredFromBatteredFanSyndrome]

I find it rather wild how often Jayden’s season is referred to as horrible.

Sure, horrible not being able to stay on the field - but when he played, he wasn’t awful. Sure, he didn’t look like the kid from last season, but neither did our schedule or his weapons and the defense somehow was even worse.

I sort of understood the constant barrage of negativity and hyperbolic, emotion filled takes from early November. I think we’ve seen more than enough at this point to accept that it was never meant to be, and no level of play from Jayden was going to do much to change that.

I like Maye, wanted to draft him over Jayden. I understand the rear view mirror eyes, all things considered. But FFS, he’s playing perhaps the worst overall schedule of teams/defenses in history, with a defense that gets him the football back regularly, and McDaniel has his first read open consistently (as noted earlier in this thread). I don’t say that to knock him, he’s making the plays and is deserving of the praise. This league is wildly humbling though, and he’ll never have the stars align quite like this again most likely.

 

[Chris]

I guess you found a nit to pick, I just think it’s a singular data point that doesn’t tell us much.

Of course you can find weaknesses in any player. I suppose this oddly specific statistic about Maye’s first-read DVOA might point to one, and defensive coordinators would be wise to take advantage of it. I would also look at Maye’s very high number of sacks if I were finding fault in his game.

None of that changes the fact Drake Maye is the favorite to win the league MVP this season. He is easily among the top few passers in the league by almost all the normal metrics. He has the highest QB rating in the NFL, the second highest QBR, the highest completion percentage, the fourth most passing yards, and the third most passing touchdowns.

When I compare that to Jayden’s horrible season, I worry we picked the wrong guy, but I allow that it is still too soon to say. Maybe Jayden stays healthy next year and proves to be durable over a long career. Maybe Maye falls off against a more difficult schedule. Nobody knows the future. Hopefully time will reveal me to be mistaken in my concerns about Jayden, who is still our best hope going forward.

Yeah, I found a nit. I culled it from the 2 metrics mentioned. I must be a witch. 🤣

Keep ignoring the fact that NEs success so far this year is because they have played a cupcake/minor league (your choice) schedule. One might think that with a potential MVP QB, a strong defense, and that they are tied for the league’s best record that they might be at or near the top of the SB odds. They’re not.

 

[Riggo44]

I must be a witch.

 

[RedWolf]

Yeah I wanted Maye but hopped on the JD train since everybody was so hyped. I thought the same like everybody else about physical stature. I'm not the greatest fan of drafting Heisman Trophy winners

 

[Conn]

Asked how the Commanders can get back on track in 2026, players offered wide-ranging answers. McLaurin hopes Washington turns up the physicality and competitiveness in training camp, proposing “more scrimmage-style practices can allow for those more competitive gamelike situations.”

Some players traced the lack of rhythm back to organized team activities and training camp. McLaurin missed the bulk of both while agitating for a contract extension, and he has since acknowledged the time away might have contributed to his slow start to the season.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2026/01/02/commanders-exit-interviews/

He’s 100% right but the gall to say it when he skipped all of it to begin with is absolutely unbelievable. Hilarious

 

[Bulldog]

McLaurin we have learned over the past year can be self-absorbed and not a great gauge on readiness.

 

[NoCalSkins]

At 4-13 we have no business resigning 30 year old players like Deebo and giving them guaranteed money.

Deebo has never been a true outside receiver and is a luxury player for a team like Washington that needs to spend on more critical talents at WR and TE.

For me it's not the guaranteed money but how much he will likely be asking for. I actually wouldn't be shocked if he ends up back in SF tbh. They are going to go into next season healthy with a roster that even injured & banged up was able to keep a float for enough of the season to set themselves up for a late season run. One loss away from the #1 seed. Deebo in the right system showed he can still be useful, he is just in position to be "the guy" any longer.

 

[NoCalSkins]

If you grade 2024 as an A- and 2025 as an F....it averages out to a C- to C+ from the organization so far and given the fact that the entire operation top to bottom was turned over before last season, I think most people would see C+ results through two seasons as expected when you are pretty much working your way up from ground zero, however because the first season was so unexpectedly successful it really skewed the overall process and expectations on the progress of building a legitimate roster.