The All Things Terry Thread

[burgold]

The crazy thing to me. (and it will always be crazy to me) is the 22 million he's getting this year is generational money all by itself. Sure, we all want more, but if he made 45 million over the next two years unless he does something really stupid investment-wise or gets ripped off... he's set for life. His children are set for life.

I don't begrudge a guy wanting more if they can get it, but this idea that he's got to get "his" now or he'll be in the shit is off kilter. If he walked away from the game today, he should never have a money worry in his life.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Oh, I just think some of the Terry dismissals are over the top. The way he's being depicted makes me think some think he's the Reed Doughty of wide receivers.... or maybe James Thrash.

I don't get that vibe. I think we all love Terry. Terry is a great WR. He seems to want to get paid like he's an AJ Brown and Ceedee who are not only younger but who are at an age where they can get even better. So he's created that bar for himself. And i don't think he meets it. If Terry was 26, I'd get it to some extent. He might not be quite who those guys are but he's still getting better and he can get there. Based on age alone, there is a better chance that Ceedee Lamb for example increases the gap with Terry versus Terry closes the gap.

But that next tier of WRS as I've mentioned: D. Adams, Metcalf, Mike Evans, D. Smith - he's right there with him and IMO a hair better than them even though coachs-scouts did put Evans higher.

Metcalf is tricky as to the contract drill. Basically as to guaranteed money he's getting 30 million a year for two years. But he's younger. He's definitely more of a freakish WR than Terry but Terry has been better. If this ends up basically 60 million for 2 years, I'd be fine with that. But I get the impression, Terry's side wouldn't be happy.

 

[burgold]

I don't get that vibe. I think we all love Terry. Terry is a great WR. He seems to want to get paid like he's an AJ Brown and Ceedee who are not only younger but who are at an age where they can get even better. So he's created that bar for himself. And i don't think he meets it.

But that next tier of WRS as I've mentioned: D. Adams, Metcalf, Mike Evans, D. Smith - he's right there with him and IMO a hair better than them even though coachs-scouts did put Evans higher.

Metcalf is tricky as to the contract drill. Basically as to guaranteed money he's getting 30 million a year for two years. But he's younger. He's definitely more of a freakish WR than Terry but Terry has been better. If this ends up basically 60 million for 2 years, I'd be fine with that. But I get the impression, Terry's side wouldn't be happy.

That's basically where I stand, too.

 

[Califan007]

This is another case of stats that don’t mean anything, or are being misused or misrepresented (I’m not saying you’re doing this on purpose, as the way you’re using the stat is intuitive—if imo incorrect). Advanced stat guys tried with “average separation” for years. It’s not predictive, it’s descriptive. Because (again, maybe people are seeing a trend here) it’s actually a QB stat. Great WR’s can create separation regardless of QB but timing and placement of passes from elite QB play can enhance the average separation of a lesser WR by hitting the target perfectly, while better WR’s with worse QB’s can potentially create more separation while receiving less accurate/perfectly placed passes.

Anyone with eyes can see that in terms of skillset McLaurin does not separate as well as Lamb. That’s independent of when and where the ball actually arrives from the QB on any given target. That’s just one facet of WR play, luckily. And it can be compensated for via QB skill and offensive play design.

Are you basically saying separation shouldn’t be measured at the time the ball arrives, but maybe at the time the ball is thrown? (Or some combination of the two)…if it’s at the moment the pass arrives, is it due to the WR creating separation to get himself open or is it because the QB threw the receiver open? Or is it due to the QB throwing to a spot regardless of whether or not the WR is open with the confidence the WR will be at that spot (though that would still reflect on a WR’s ability to get open via great route running)?

I had thought there was a stat out there that reflected the separation achieved at the time the pass was thrown but couldn’t find it…only separation at the time the ball arrived.

 

[Primus Porcus]

The crazy thing to me. (and it will always be crazy to me) is the 22 million he's getting this year is generational money all by itself. Sure, we all want more, but if he made 45 million over the next two years unless he does something really stupid investment-wise or gets ripped off... he's set for life. His children are set for life.

I don't begrudge a guy wanting more if they can get it, but this idea that he's got to get "his" now or he'll be in the shit is off kilter. If he walked away from the game today, he should never have a money worry in his life.

This logic doesn’t work in the NFL though.

It’s not about being set for life. NFL agents, NFLPA, and other players will not let a guy sign for grossly under what is market value. Just like setting the mark extremely high for the new ‘top’ guy, a player taking a vastly lower deal than ‘market’ changes the pay scale. It wont happen. You could argue that NOBODY needs to make $50M a year, but that’s just not the reality. I understand your sentiment, but the logic just doesn’t correlate in those terms.

 

[Primus Porcus]

I think the best comp here is DK Metcalf. Yes, he’s 2 years ‘younger’ but they both have the same NFL experience, being taken in the 2019 NFL Draft. DK’s contract is 4 years with an AAV of ~$33M, with a peak of $41.5M in the final year when he’s 32 years old. I would venture that Terry wants 3 years, structured similarly, to carry him his age 33 season.

 

[Califan007]

Anyone with eyes can see that in terms of skillset McLaurin does not separate as well as Lamb. That’s independent of when and where the ball actually arrives from the QB on any given target. That’s just one facet of WR play, luckily. And it can be compensated for via QB skill and offensive play design.

Wanted to touch on this part…

IMO, the fan “eye test” is the absolute worst way to measure anything in football lol…”anyone with eyes can see” is an incredibly weak foundation on which to build an argument without corresponding facts to back it up.

Almost no one here does All-22 film study of every route every WR in the NFL runs in a season, and that’s probably the only way anyone can say with confidence who gets open more. It’s the only way coaches make their assessments and game plans…Watching the game on TV sure as hell doesn’t provide anything close to enough visual data…most of us rely on stuff said by those who DO analyze film, or we rely on stats.

So if your argument for why Lamb gets open far more that Terry is just “anyone with eyes can see that,” it’s not a very convincing argument.

 

[Bigwig]

If Terry's side doesnt back off of wanting more than 30. I'd let him play out his contract. And franchise him next year at 28. And then let him go at 32. 32 is when I'd expect the drop off anyway. And looking at it that way, I think the team has the leverage because they can keep him for the next two years. And if my math is right he'd make less than 27 million a year.

A lot less! Under $24M per year if I understand overthecap.com correctly. Along with the $28M projection for the 2026 WR tag that you cited, they list the cash outlay for his current contract at $19,650,000 for 2025.

 

[Califan007]

I don't care enough to argue with you about it. If you want to contend that Ceedee Lamb and Terry are equals. Or that age -- 30 plus doesn't matter. Have at it.

Why is it that you are singularly the only person who keeps thinking I’m saying that part in bold Red? lol…

 

[Conn]

Are you basically saying separation shouldn’t be measured at the time the ball arrives, but maybe at the time the ball is thrown? (Or some combination of the two)…if it’s at the moment the pass arrives, is it due to the WR creating separation to get himself open or is it because the QB threw the receiver open? Or is it due to the QB throwing to a spot regardless of whether or not the WR is open with the confidence the WR will be at that spot (though that would still reflect on a WR’s ability to get open via great route running)?

I had thought there was a stat out there that reflected the separation achieved at the time the pass was thrown but couldn’t find it…only separation at the time the ball arrived.

I think in an ideal parallel dimension where it was possible, if we’re trying to get really technical with it, separation would be measured at the point in the route when the ball is supposed to arrive, in the perfect outcome as envisioned by a control freak sicko like Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay. Without knowing the design and intent and timing of the play, as well as the defensive factors that impact the read for both the QB and WR (some teams—like the old McDaniels Patriots—change the route mid-play based on what the DB does, and both the QB and WR must make the correct read in reaction), it’s basically impossible to calculate. Too many unknowns, too many outside factors, too much reliance on what the QB does and precisely when and how.

But yeah, the current separation-related advanced analytics don’t really tell us anything except what already happened (without the crucial “why” or “who”), they don’t predict any sort of future production or performance. Tough position to isolate

 

[Conn]

Wanted to touch on this part…

IMO, the fan “eye test” is the absolute worst way to measure anything in football lol…”anyone with eyes can see” is an incredibly weak foundation on which to build an argument without corresponding facts to back it up.

Almost no one here does All-22 film study of every route every WR in the NFL runs in a season, and that’s probably the only way anyone can say with confidence who gets open more. It’s the only way coaches make their assessments and game plans…Watching the game on TV sure as hell doesn’t provide anything close to enough visual data…most of us rely on stuff said by those who DO analyze film, or we rely on stats.

So if your argument for why Lamb gets open far more that Terry is just “anyone with eyes can see that,” it’s not a very convincing argument.

I don’t know what to tell you, but there’s not a stat for everything—and yet we must still form opinions in order to express them. Confidence in those opinions varies, and that’s fair. But the same way you can’t objectively measure WR route-running or separation skills, you also can’t objectively measure RB vision. Yet we know bad vision when we see it and we know great vision when we see it, even watching the broadcast view.

It’s one of the limitations of being a football fan, unlike some sports advanced analytics that actually isolate single players or single traits of those players are vanishingly rare in this game.

 

[Anselmheifer]

In 2023 when Lamb was targeted 181 times, he had an average separation of 2.7 yards from the nearest defender at the time of completion/incompletion.

In 2024 when Terry was only targeted 117 times, he had an average separation of 2.7 yards from the nearest defender at the time of completion/incompletion.

Last year, the WRs who were most targeted were not the ones who were most open. Drake London had 35 more targets than Terry yet had less average separation per target.

There’s got to be more to the number of targets a WR gets than “he’s just open more”. Offensive scheme, score (playing from ahead or from behind), playcalling, etc, etc…

So, you’re telling me, that on average, across 298 passes, between Terry and Ceedee, that there is a stat that day they were, on average, 8 feet away from the covering defender?

That’s on its face ridiculous. How many times last year did we see Terry 8 feet beyond his defender? That stat is crap.

Also, I like your posts and agree with you a lot. I’m not being antagonistic specifically at you.

 

[Califan007]

I think in an ideal parallel dimension where it was possible, if we’re trying to get really technical with it, separation would be measured at the point in the route when the ball is supposed to arrive, in the perfect outcome as envisioned by a control freak sicko like Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay. Without knowing the design and intent and timing of the play, as well as the defensive factors that impact the read for both the QB and WR (some teams—like the old McDaniels Patriots—change the route mid-play based on what the DB does, and both the QB and WR must make the correct read in reaction), it’s basically impossible to calculate. Too many unknowns, too many outside factors, too much reliance on what the QB does and precisely when and how.

But yeah, the current separation-related advanced analytics don’t really tell us anything except what already happened (without the crucial “why” or “who”), they don’t predict any sort of future production or performance. Tough position to isolate

This kind of speaks to your overall point: ESPN Receiver analytics rank WRs and TEs in terms of getting open, and say they draw their rankings from data at NextGen Stats…but the separation stats at NextGen don’t really match up too much with the ESPN stats and rankings. So their “Open” stat must be different from NextGen’s separation stats in some way, but it’s not explained.

Cool to play around with, though:

https://espnanalytics.com/receivers/

And it lists Terry as like #131 in terms of getting open lol…

 

[Califan007]

So, you’re telling me, that on average, across 298 passes, between Terry and Ceedee, that there is a stat that day they were, on average, 8 feet away from the covering defender?

That’s on its face ridiculous. How many times last year did we see Terry 8 feet beyond his defender? That stat is crap.

Also, I like your posts and agree with you a lot. I’m not being antagonistic specifically at you.

I think the issue you’re having is not considering things like screens, slants, comeback routes, etc. depends on how often they are called but WRs can create a lot of separation on a number of routes that end up having minimum yardage…as well as if a WR is excellent against zone defenses. Cooley and Jordan Reed always seemed to get a lot of separation against zone coverage.

EDIT: NextGen stats might even weigh separation downfield heavier or eliminate things like screens and slants altogether. But as of now I assume they include all routes run.

EDIT pt 2 lol: this other stats site has Terry’s separation average as 1.4…Lamb’s separation average during his “monster season” is listed as 1.6:

Terry McLaurin Stats & Fantasy Ranking - PlayerProfiler

Terry McLaurin player profile featuring career stats, fantasy ranking, & analytics data. See combine scores, SPARQ, measurables, and comparable players.

www.playerprofiler.com

(I have like 14 tabs open on my phone lol)

 

[Hail Raiser]

I'd definitely take Metcalf over Terry and it's not just age giving him a larger contract. Metcalf is better.

In the East is put Terry behind AJ, Nabers and Lamb for sure. I'd put Smith ahead of him as well. Deebo and Pickens are just behind him.

 

[Califan007]

Terry after the contract gets signed:

 

[Primus Porcus]

This thread is really pushing a debate that outlines some idea that it’s either the franchise, or Terry… and that’s simply not the case. There are supporting facts on both sides to support whatever argument you want, but the overwhelming truth is that this team going forward is better with Terry Mclaurin on it at the right price. It’s not static either. I can see a path where we ‘overpay’ Terry and are still ok. I can also understand a path that we decide he’s just not ‘that guy.’

All that said, I’m still on the side of hoping he is a member of this franchise for the remainder of his career. He’s the guy we all have rooted for over the last 30 years…. The only difference is he’s been good enough to actually affect the outcome of games.

 

[RedWolf]

Redacted quote...

All that said, I’m still on the side of hoping he is a member of this franchise for the remainder of his career. He’s the guy we all have rooted for over the last 30 years…. The only difference is he’s been good enough to actually affect the outcome of games.

I agree with you...but I think it is very important that we need to be planning for the future and find our #1 for JD, post TM

 

[Primus Porcus]

I agree with you...but I think it is very important that we need to be planning for the future and find our #1 for JD, post TM

Fair, but it’s also not binary. There can be a world here where Terry gets what he ‘deserves’ and the team is better off for it. Peters and co get paid beyond just this contract negotiation.

 

[prodigy]

I think in an ideal parallel dimension where it was possible, if we’re trying to get really technical with it, separation would be measured at the point in the route when the ball is supposed to arrive, in the perfect outcome as envisioned by a control freak sicko like Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay. Without knowing the design and intent and timing of the play, as well as the defensive factors that impact the read for both the QB and WR (some teams—like the old McDaniels Patriots—change the route mid-play based on what the DB does, and both the QB and WR must make the correct read in reaction), it’s basically impossible to calculate. Too many unknowns, too many outside factors, too much reliance on what the QB does and precisely when and how.

But yeah, the current separation-related advanced analytics don’t really tell us anything except what already happened (without the crucial “why” or “who”), they don’t predict any sort of future production or performance. Tough position to isolate

on top of that, you'd have to factor in the differences in how the receivers are used. Ceedee is lined up at the slot like 50 to 60% of the time while Terry is lined up as the X, the vast majority of the time. obviously, I think Terry doesn't have the shiftiness to excel in the slot like Ceedee, but they are fundamentally different receivers. it's why DK Metcalf comparisons are more apt. even if DK is a physical freak, he plays smaller than the smaller AJ Brown and Terry. Terry is leaps and bounds better than DK by being able to run more than go balls and slants - along with better hands/contested catch ability. DK has youth on his side, that's it. DK vs Terry is not a competition to me. DK is overrated. DK's contract is in the ballpark of what Terry should get. To me, that's the end of story.