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The All Things Terry Thread
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Bulldog
The Legend
Croskey-Merritt and Ja'Cory Brooks look like rookies that not only make the team but make a contribution in Year 1.
In a 5 player draft where picks were traded for vets, a good GM really makes his reputation with late round picks and UDFAs to build the roster.
In a 5 player draft where picks were traded for vets, a good GM really makes his reputation with late round picks and UDFAs to build the roster.
WCommandersfan25
Camp Fodder
Agree with this. Look at what KC did with Tyreek. A pretty surprising trade and still won a SB without him. If he gets too greedy think he gets traded.
Bulldog
The Legend
It's hard to find a true #1 receiver in trade or draft, but if the team is without Terry there are going to be opportunities to sign or trade for veteran guys that can come in and help as secondary targets for Jayden in this offense.
The problem with speed receivers is once they hit 30/31 they start to slow down and usually don't finish out their contracts if they are signed long-term.
You can take guys like Mike Evans in Tampa or Anquan Boldin back in the day and sign them to contracts after 30 and see them continue to be highly productive because their game is centered around excellence of route running, height/strength, and ability to win balls in the air.
Terry is listed at 6'0 so he is probably closer to 5'11 in real terms. The question does come up what effectiveness he has 2 years from now at 32 and still under contract?
The one speed guy I remember from my youth, Cliff Branch, was able to maintain that 4.2 speed and scare defenses into his mid to late 30's.
But Branch like Darrell Green is a Hall of Fame player with a unique skill set that didn't diminish over time.
The problem with speed receivers is once they hit 30/31 they start to slow down and usually don't finish out their contracts if they are signed long-term.
You can take guys like Mike Evans in Tampa or Anquan Boldin back in the day and sign them to contracts after 30 and see them continue to be highly productive because their game is centered around excellence of route running, height/strength, and ability to win balls in the air.
Terry is listed at 6'0 so he is probably closer to 5'11 in real terms. The question does come up what effectiveness he has 2 years from now at 32 and still under contract?
The one speed guy I remember from my youth, Cliff Branch, was able to maintain that 4.2 speed and scare defenses into his mid to late 30's.
But Branch like Darrell Green is a Hall of Fame player with a unique skill set that didn't diminish over time.
WCommandersfan25
Camp Fodder
Agree with this. Peters knows about the correlation with speed and getting older. Love Terry but honestly think Peters has a max offer that if Terry says no, he'll be traded. I really wonder if his agent is in his ear too much. Frustrating situation.
Bulldog
The Legend
Terry I think was spoiled a bit by receiving a top 5-6 contract 3 years ago despite putting up good but not all-pro level numbers.
He took that to mean he was considered one of the best in the league.
If you look at the numbers Terry put up LAST year with Jayden Daniels (not Sam Howell or Taylor Heinicke) he had 82 catches for 1096 and 13 touchdowns.
The numbers and catches were way below the numbers that Chase and Lamb put up during their contract years.
Lamb had 135 catches for 1,750 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Last year with a backup quarterback in Cooper Rush throwing him the ball on a sub .500 team, Lamb still managed over 100 catches and 1200 yards.
And that was with him limping through the final stretch of games on an injury that ultimately caused him to go on IR.
I like Terry but to be honest when I watched Washington last year I never got the impression he was our 'new' Gary Clark or Charley Taylor, a guy that opposing teams feared facing like a Lamb or Chase or Nacua.
He's a good player who thinks he is borderline elite.
He took that to mean he was considered one of the best in the league.
If you look at the numbers Terry put up LAST year with Jayden Daniels (not Sam Howell or Taylor Heinicke) he had 82 catches for 1096 and 13 touchdowns.
The numbers and catches were way below the numbers that Chase and Lamb put up during their contract years.
Lamb had 135 catches for 1,750 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Last year with a backup quarterback in Cooper Rush throwing him the ball on a sub .500 team, Lamb still managed over 100 catches and 1200 yards.
And that was with him limping through the final stretch of games on an injury that ultimately caused him to go on IR.
I like Terry but to be honest when I watched Washington last year I never got the impression he was our 'new' Gary Clark or Charley Taylor, a guy that opposing teams feared facing like a Lamb or Chase or Nacua.
He's a good player who thinks he is borderline elite.
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Cooper Rush might be better than 90% of the 14 different QBs Terry has had throwing him the ball lol…
As well as Lamb was 7th in most targets…Terry was 22nd. Yet Lamb was 22nd in yards per reception…Terry was 14th.
Lamb needed 19 more receptions and 35 more targets to get those extra 98 yards. That’s about 5 yards per reception extra. My guess is Terry could have easily done that if he had those extra 35 targets.
And considering Terry more than doubled Lamb’s total TDs—with far less targets and less receptions—I’m not sure last season was the best one to use to compare the two lol…
WCommandersfan25
Camp Fodder
This issue with Terry is he's older than Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, etc and not putting up their numbers. These are the main reasons he won't get elite wr money. Very curious to know what he could net in a trade. I know Cleveland and New England need receivers. I want him here for the record, but a trade really could happen if no deal is reached.
This seems like a pretty clear example of selection bias imo. More specifically, survivorship bias, where by looking at the sample size of starting WR’s between the ages of 30-33 to start 8 or more games, you’ve already selected out the worrisome part of the population that we’d be terrified Terry would join—the injured fellas who earn their money on IR.
The entire point is that as guys get older they get injured more often and bounce back more slowly. By filtering those guys out you’re by design selecting for the guys who stayed healthy. So yeah the healthier guys are going to be fairly productive (although 1000/7+ is a low bar for the type of contract we’re talking about), they didn’t forget how to play football. It’s not about athleticism, WR has the lowest correlation between combine performance and career productivity to begin with. It’s about being on the field and staying on the field and maintaining dominant production.
The thing is, nobody wants to pay 2022-2024 Adam Thielen top-10 WR money, god forbid top-5 WR money. 1000+ yards and 7+ TD’s from the healthy guys aren’t the stats you’re looking for from top of the market contracts…
All in all, appreciate the research, but I think you’ve done nothing here but demonstrate a really excellent example of selection bias.
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That’s probably why he first talked about the 135/1750/12 season that led to Lamb earning the contract he has now. Something Terry’s never sniffed and likely never will, as much as we love him.
In-depth research on WR’s reveals one very important thing to us that fantasy (especially dynasty) fanatics know very well—huge target totals are earned. It’s why you rarely see guys randomly put up 100+ catch seasons and then disappear. Generally those guys keep it up, health permitting. It’s why “vacated targets” are not a thing—when a target monster leaves an offense, the targets the next season are usually split between many players rather than naturally trickling down to the next most talented WR. This is very well known to people who study these things. It takes a special WR to earn monster target numbers and they almost always repeat the feat. And a guy like that leaving does not mean the next man up inherits those targets, because they usually aren’t good enough.
Very rarely you have an offensive system that funnels targets to non-elite WR’s but it’s rare.
So the fact that McLaurin lives around 75-80 average catches for his career, even after finally playing with a QB who was historically productive and efficient, likely means that he just isn’t a huge target numbers type of guy. Most aren’t. But horrible teams with bad QB play can be ripe for elite WR production due to all the playing from behind and soft coverages so I don’t take his history to be an excuse in that regard.
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Guys who start 8 games get injured, so your assumption is incorrect. Your argument only makes sense if we assume WRs over 30 who are able to start 8 games will remain healthy all season. My criteria doesn’t eliminate WRs who miss games due to injury, so the “worrisome” part was indeed still a factor.
The reason I selected players who started 8 games was because I wanted to weed out all the backups from all the age groups. I wanted to compare starters to starters. If a starter misses 8-9 starts due to injury or poor performance, they are still included.
I get it, but one of the largest risks 30+ year old players face (and a large reason for being worried about paying them) are season ending injuries that cause them to miss the majority of the season. By selecting out the guys who played half the season or more, you’re removing the group we’re most afraid Terry would join.
I’m not giving you homework or anything lol, it’s your research and your time. I’m simply saying that regardless of the reasoning, the results aren’t useful when you cut the scariest part of the sample size out of the data before you even begin.
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We saw last year what Lamb looks like with the level of QB Terry has had his entire career—well, until last year. And the year Lamb had those monster numbers he had a whopping 181 targets. Terry had 117 targets last year. And he still had more TDs last year and a higher yards per reception average than Lamb did in his monster year.
What do you think Terry’s stats would have been last year if he had 64 more passes thrown his way?…Here’s a possibility:
The Catchable Target Rate on passes thrown Terry’s way last year was 75%, and his True Catch Rate last year was 94%. Doing the math, that works out to….(carry the one)…that comes to about 45 more receptions he would have had. Multiply that by his yards per reception average and that comes to 1,699 yards. Let’s round up and say 1,700 lol…so that brings Terry’s totals to 127 catches for 1,700 yards—oh, and Terry also averaged 1 TD every 6.3 catches (82 divided by 13). So with those extra targets and thus extra catches, Terry’s stats would come out to:
127/1,700/19
What was Lamb’s monster year again?
135/1,749/12
Turns out having 64 more passes thrown your way helps you put up monster numbers. Well, unless the argument is that for those extra 64 targets Terry Mclaurin would have suddenly turned into James Thrash.
It’s fairly widely believed that TD’s and YPC are QB stats, while targets are WR stats. It’s the simplest way to explain it even if it’s overstated. Better QB play leads to higher efficiency and more high quality targets (especially in the RZ), but raw targets are fairly sticky with elite guys. They earn monster target shares and keep that share during their prime.
I’m sorry to tell you this but you’d shudder to see the stats Lamb would put up if he played in this offense with Daniels at QB. They are not equivalent players, as much as I wish that weren’t true. McLaurin didn’t earn 64 more targets (despite a historically good young QB) because he’s not upper echelon/get open at will type elite. He’s just not, as good as he is.
Anyways, the entire point of this was that Lamb’s monster year is what earned him his monster contract. His stats the next year with Cooper Rush throwing the ball being more similar to McLaurin catching balls from Daniels doesn’t really make the argument you want. That’s why McLaurin hasn’t earned a similar monster contract.
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Fun to observe. Thanks, guys!
This is something
‘Holding in’
Bulldog
The Legend
Just means he’s now able to avoid fines for not reporting while not actually participating either.
Is it a positive? Perhaps, but it’s largely financial IMO.
Where did he come up with an ankle injury significant enough to put him on PUP list?
Riding his peloton?
In regards to Lamb let’s recall that last year he played or rather limped through a number of games until Dallas was eliminated.
He was far from 100%.
When he has been close to healthy he’s dynamic at a level Terry has never reached.
Is it a positive? Perhaps, but it’s largely financial IMO.
Where did he come up with an ankle injury significant enough to put him on PUP list?
Riding his peloton?
In regards to Lamb let’s recall that last year he played or rather limped through a number of games until Dallas was eliminated.
He was far from 100%.
When he has been close to healthy he’s dynamic at a level Terry has never reached.
WCommandersfan25
Camp Fodder
I honestly don't think it means much. The loss of money is probably getting to him with the 50k daily fines. I don't think this is movement towards a new deal but hope I'm wrong. Would love to see this resolved this week.
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