The All Things Terry Thread

[Blaze Thunderball]

The Terry McLaurin Fine Tracker

Day 4 total- 200k (or 63,000 gallons of regular unleaded gasoline)

How many chocolate oranges is that?

 

[Chris]

How many chocolate oranges is that?

17,436 with free shipping. 😉

 

[DWinzit]

The team showed their commitment to Terry when they only brought Deebo in via FA and waited until the 4th round to draft a WR. Those moves showed how they felt about Terry and had already stated they wanted to get a new deal done. It is a shame they couldn't have gotten that deal done around the time of the draft, I doubt Terry would have been looking to 33 mil at that point and should have felt very wanted and needed by the team.

I expressed concern a number of times in posts that they hadn't signed him yet. The responses I kept receiving were, no worries we are signing him. I, like most of you didn't see this mess coming but he wields more power over the team now because we need a guy we consider WR1. It is his and his agents rights to fight for as much money as they can get but it does feel a little like they are holding the team hostage on this extension. At this point I disappointingly think they just need to let him lay out his contract.

 

[Bigwig]

The problem is Terri‘s age. Do I think that Adam peters would have a problem being Terry top five wide receiver money this year? No. next year? Probably not. The problem is if you sign Terri to a three-year extension, the last two years are in his age 32 and 33 seasons. And in all likelihood, Terri will not be a top 5 to 10 receiver in those years.

I don’t see the incentive for Peters to offer even top ten money for this coming year, much less the following years as you and others rightly point out.

In particular, even if the two sides could agree on market value, the natural compromise would be somewhere between it and the <$20 M that McClaurin is currently slated to earn.

 

[RexTomb]

Is Terry a good receiver? Yes. But lets not forget that production means everything. And yes, he did have 1,000 yard seasons for four out of five seasons, but he averaged 5.5 touchdowns a season before we drafted JD5 while being the main receiving threat on the team. You could make the argument that he is finally tapping into his true potential, but he was probably not even a top 15 WR before last season. I just don't want to overpay him, either. He's a big part of the team, but at a certain point you have to recognize that he's probably a WR2 on many other teams so he shouldn't be making more than $30 million.

 

[Pokey]

Football players really should hold-in rather than out. Having them in camp, but not participating is actually more stressful for the team.

 

[Chris 44]

Football players really should hold-in rather than out. Having them in camp, but not participating is actually more stressful for the team.

I hear you but for the player he loses leverage then and risks injury.

 

[aledb11]

I hear you but for the player he loses leverage then and risks injury.

If not practicing there is no risk of injury.

 

[Pokey]

I hear you but for the player he loses leverage then and risks injury.

The holding-in model has the player developing some minor twinge in the hamstring or some such so they don't take part in practice.

 

[Petey hodge]

I don’t think the team has ever paid Tony McLaurin. 😉

Regarding Terry…the current CBA calls for a fine of 50k per day for players with unexcused absences of mandatory team activities. Salary is paid weekly during the regular season, per game.

One of the terrible FOX, 3rd string booth announcers called him “Tony McLaurin” against some meaningless game against the Cardinals a couple years back. It stuck with me, and a few of the delusional fans who suffered through that game w me. 🤣

 

[Discobob]

I wonder if Peters' close ties to SF and the way the Aiyuk deal has seemingly backfired on them is impacting how he sees the Terry situation?

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I don’t see the incentive for Peters to offer even top ten money for this coming year, much less the following years as you and others rightly point out.

In particular, even if the two sides could agree on market value, the natural compromise would be somewhere between it and the <$20 M that McClaurin is currently slated to earn.

I disagree. I think Terry is a top 10 receiver. I think he's earned it. Using "basic" stats (not advanced stats), he was 15th in yards with 1,096, 2nd in TDs with 13, but only 22nd in targets. HIs average yards per reception was 13.4, which was tied with Ja'Marr Chase. Only Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas and Jerry Judy were WRs with higher Yards per Catch than Terry who had 100+ catches. If Terry had more targets, his total numbers would all be better. Notably, his targets are ~20-30 lower than most other #1 receivers.

You could look at that as a negative. I think it's more likely because of 3 factors:
1. Kliff's offense is designed to spread the ball around.
2. There wasn't a really good #2 to pull coverage, so Terry saw double coverage a lot
3. JD5 ran a lot, combined with the regular running game, there were simply fewer targets for WRs than say in Cincinnati (Chase #1 WR in yards and attempts), and Minnesota (Jefferson #2 in yards and attempts.) Would Terry equal either of their numbers if he was in those situations? No. But he'd be pretty close to them.

Context matters.

And to me, Terry is, RIGHT NOW, a top 10 WR. Probably in the 5-10 range. And that's how he should be paid RIGHT NOW.

The problem is not now, it's the extension will most likely run through his age 32 and 33 seasons. And at that point, it would be hard to imagine he would be able to have the same production.

So that's the needle they have to thread. RIGHT NOW, it's "show me the money" time.

However, the extension carries into the back part of Terry's career.

I'm actually pretty sure Peters might be totally happy to let Terry play out his current contract and then franchise him next year if he's productive this year, then figure out a longer term deal when Terry is entering his age 32 season, to see where his productivity is.

But Terry won't want that. So, his age becomes a factor.

Is Terry a good receiver? Yes. But lets not forget that production means everything. And yes, he did have 1,000 yard seasons for four out of five seasons, but he averaged 5.5 touchdowns a season before we drafted JD5 while being the main receiving threat on the team. You could make the argument that he is finally tapping into his true potential, but he was probably not even a top 15 WR before last season. I just don't want to overpay him, either. He's a big part of the team, but at a certain point you have to recognize that he's probably a WR2 on many other teams so he shouldn't be making more than $30 million.

I don't think that's true. I think unless he's on the Bengals or Vikings, he's the #1 WR, or at a minimum, co-#1 WR.

The thing is, he's more valuable to this team than to any other team. He is "Mr. Culture." He fits in perfectly with the type of player Quinn and Peters want. They need a well-rounded #1 WR with deep speed. He is by far the best WR on this team.

Production isn't everything. There are other things which are also important. And Terry has both the production and the other things.

This is why I think a deal will get done.

I wonder if Peters' close ties to SF and the way the Aiyuk deal has seemingly backfired on them is impacting how he sees the Terry situation?

He talked about that a little in his presser. He said he wasn't directly involved, but saw it second hand. I think Peters has many things going through his mind, and I think he's looking at the whole picture.

Terry is a big part of that picture.

But I don't think he's going to change his overall opinion of the value. Terry is going to have to realize he probably is over-valuing his worth based on his age. If he was 2 years younger, the conversation is different.

The problem is the age and length of the deal. Terry is absolutely essential to the success of the team and is a top 10 WR now. But that's probably not true at the end of the extension. And therein lies the rub.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

A few other factoids:
- Terry is under contract, an unlike when he went through this last time when he was on his rookie deal, he already has generational wealth and his salary this year is not THAT far out of line of his production.
- If Terry doesn't report and play, he won't get paid and his contract will toll.
- Public perception is not going to sway Peters. They probably would be willing to pay a little more than market, but not a lot.
- The team needs Terry to be on the team, motivated and productive in order to achieve their ultimate goals.
- However, if he, for some reason, decides he isn't going to report/play, they can absolutely be a productive offense with JD5, Samuel, Noah Brown, Ertz, and contributions from others.
- In that scenario, Deebo would become the primary target, even though he's not a traditional #1 WR. They would have to spread the ball around more to make up for Terry's production.
- I think they are banking that the upgrades on the OL are going to dramatically help the running game, which also is going to take some pressure off of the passing game in general.
- I'm sure they don't want to go down this road. But they COULD do it. And have a top 5 offense. And that gives Peters more leverage.
- They made do with Terry and a bunch of dudes last year. And had an extremely effective offense. They could make do with Deebo and a bunch of dudes this year.
- But they need Terry + Deebo + a bunch of dudes to be elite.

Terry has almost no leverage. Except that I think literally everybody in the building and outside the building loves him and wants him to be part of the team.

This is why I think Peters is going to be willing to just let this drag out until Terry's side comes around to some version of his way of thinking.

My guess is they end up with a very front-loaded deal with more guarantees at signing and through the first 2 years than would be normal, and some really easy escape routes after the 2026 season.

 

[Califan007]

I did a crapload of statistical research about WRs in their 30s and was gonna post it while on my laptop because it was too much to post through my phone, but the site wouldn’t let me stay logged in on my laptop so I couldn’t post anything (grr). I emailed myself the stats and percentages and all that stuff like that there but copying and pasting through my phone kept screwing up, too lol..

So, tl:dr version:

I checked over the last 15 years how many times WRs from three different age groups started 8 or more games in a season. The age groups were:

21-24
25-29
30-33

Then I checked to see how many WRs from that group had 2 or more season with:

- 1,000 or more yards, and
- 7 or more TDs

Long story short: the percentage of WRs in the 30-33 group to meet both those milestones in multiple years was no different from the other two groups…like 1% difference most years, and one recent year a much higher percentage of WRs in the 30-33 group hit both those milestones than in the other two groups in their 20s.

The caveat is that there is far fewer WRs in the 30-33 year old group, so it doesn’t take as many WRs to reach those markers to raise the percentage. However, the counterpoint there is that teams are far pickier when it comes to signing and starting those WRs, unlike WRs in their early 20s who may start a bunch of games as they try to establish themselves then either become permanent backups or are out of the league by their 26th birthday. So if a WR is in the 30-33 year old range and is starting at least 8 games, he’s likely to do well because he’s always done well…

One thing I noticed just from recent years, anyway…the WRs in their 30s who had multiple seasons of both 1,000+ yards and 7+ TDs also had 4 consecutive 1,000+ yard seasons leading up to entering their 30s—years 26, 27, 28, and 29 we’re all 1,000 yard seasons (well, one had 997 yards but I counted it lol)…they carried over their production into those early 30s. Having consistent production from 26-29 seems to have played a role in remaining productive at 30 and 31 years old.

One other thing: I think (emphasis on “think” lol, I’m doing this from memory) that two of the recent WRs in their 30s who had multiple seasons of 1,000+ yards and 7+ TDS had Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady throwing them the ball in those 4 years leading up to them turning 30…then had a noticeable downgrade in QBs throwing to them once they hit 30. In that regard, Terry would go in the exact opposite direction lol…

 

[burgold]

It kinda makes sense. The receivers who get to play into their 30’s were probably the cream of their crop so maybe they fell off from great to very good.

 

[RexTomb]

I wonder if Peters' close ties to SF and the way the Aiyuk deal has seemingly backfired on them is impacting how he sees the Terry situation?

DB, I'd love for you to expand on this thought. I'm not familiar with the situation.

 

[Discobob]

DB, I'd love for you to expand on this thought. I'm not familiar with the situation.

I don't know if I have much real data, just the fact that Aiyuk engaged in a long hold out / public pressure campaign to get paid or traded.... scored a 30M / yr contract (in late August 2024) when many questioned whether or not he was truly worth it... and then suffers a major injury which wiped out last season and part of this season.

I suspect that SF regrets having paid him. Obviously you can't predict injury, but with that issue in his mind, it may serve as a close example that hits home for Peters as he weighs the risks of doling out a large money contract to an older, non-elite player.

*** This happened after Peters left, but he was probably intimately involved in all the stuff that lead up to the final contract ***

 

[RexTomb]

I don't know if I have much real data, just the fact that Aiyuk engaged in a long hold out / public pressure campaign to get paid or traded.... scored a 30M / yr contract (in late August 2024) when many questioned whether or not he was truly worth it... and then suffers a major injury which wiped out last season and part of this season.

I suspect that SF regrets having paid him. Obviously you can't predict injury, but with that issue in his mind, it may serve as a close example that hits home for Peters as he weighs the risks of doling out a large money contract to an older, non-elite player.

*** This happened after Peters left, but he was probably intimately involved in all the stuff that lead up to the final contract ***

Similar to the Strasburg contract after he was a primary reason the Nats won the World Series in 2019. Although, I think that may go down as one of the worst contracts in history because of how it all played out. I want to say he pitched less than 10 games in the next several seasons before retiring, all while making an s-ton of cash.

 

[skinzplay]

I really don't think McLaurin has the kind of leverage his agents think he does. I hope the team brain trust doesn't budge from its current position. Let him sit out. Luke and others can thrive in this offense

 

[RexTomb]

I really don't think McLaurin has the kind of leverage his agents think he does. I hope the team brain trust doesn't budge from its current position. Let him sit out. Luke and others can thrive in this offense

The longer he sits out, the more reps some of the guys get in practice. Calling it now, Ja'Cory Brooks. Dude's a dawg.