The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

Kiper now says Styles or Downs most likely but idk. I think they will still favor WR if no Love

 
I also think that the running back position is slowly making a comeback as to positional value but the franchise tag keeps their salaries artificially deflated.

The franchise tag screws some positional groups and benefits others.

Linderbaum just blew the market out of the water for centers because the tag for offensive lineman is 25 mil per while Brandon aubrey doesn't get to see if a bidding war would get a kicker of his caliber 10 plus mil because the tag for kickers is only 6.8.

My opinion is that the nfl goes through phases and it went through a phase where it was paying top quarterbacks and receivers crazy money and the downstream effect is that all the average receivers and quarterbacks have capitalized big time on that by way of the franchise tag minimum.

The running back position went through a phase where most teams felt you could get production just about anywhere and that deflated the tag number and therefore their salaries.

Now im not suggesting that the running back position is now equal to receiver as far as importance or salary but I believe if you got rid of the franchise tag you'd see some massive shifts in the salaries of the best backs and the middle of the pack receivers.

Again opinion, but hypothetically speaking if the tag were eliminated and alec pierce and Bijan robinson were both unrestricted free agents tomorrow I believe robinson would get paid far more than pierce.
 
I wonder if any of the teams picking ahead would trade back for some team to trade up for Love? I could see a team like Cleveland who needs WR and LT doing it, maybe ARI who have a ton of needs.
 
skinsinparadise said:
I saw that hope he is right albiet dont want to see him on the Giants
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I agree... although it would be ironic for them to have let Saquon walk for very little to turn around a couple years later and spend the #5 on an RB... SMH...

I'm hoping they draft a punter
 
I will be kind of surprised if the Titans dont Ol or Edge. Those are their weakest spots. And once again value.
 
Voice_of_Reason said:
I hear all that but we absolutely have to build the receiving corps. And we need a young prospect in that room.

I get that you don’t want to teach or draft for need.

However if it’s close you go with the player at the more premium position and at a position of need.

Both of those things are going to factor into the grade in some way.

If it’s not close or they have questions, you absolutely do not do that.
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Building the receiving corps doesn't require a young prospect...if we had been able to sign Alec Pierce would you feel the same way?

I'm trying hard not to think of how badly we've been getting burned drafting WRs in the first round lately with respect to needing a young prospect either to replace who we had (Doctson after losing Garcon and DJax) or potentially be a replacement for what we had (Dotson in response to incoming Scary Terry negotiations). Every draft seems to have some young prospect at WR that can't miss that does miss. I can't tell if I'm being overcautiously or gunshot here.

JD5 plays the way he's capable of, WRs will want to play here, and we could potentially trade for one that can truly complement or replace Terry as our true #1 because of wanting to be part of this offense.
 
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Conn said:
I think the difference in elite hits is really the huge difference (and yes, we disagree broadly on BTJ but I won’t belabor it—I’d still love to trade for him lol) that I’m weighting heavier (and so is the original twitter guy)

Also your general grading here is arbitrary by nature (which is fair but makes the final takeaway more wishy-washy). I’d quibble, but it’s really only a name or two. Which on a short sample size, as you mentioned, skews a lot. But it’s not super important, because my main takeaway is really just identifying mistake patterns that these playoff teams seem too smart to make, but engage in anyways. Just something to have eyes on potentially avoiding in the future, but definitely not a solved science or anything.
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It is a massive m difference, but the NFL doesn’t always get it right. I personally was huge on JJ and Lamb (you probably too), especially JJ compared to consensus, and know a lot of other dynasty folks were also. He got penalized because of Chase and even Burrow a bit. I saw a flat out stud. And it was an awesome draft in general so he got pushed down. Lamb was right there, too. I kinda view both of them as noise.

JSN had the injury in his last college year that also knocked him down

I guess my point is those can each be reasonably explained and in a small sample, I’m not sure this particular sifting tells much story. I’m open to these kind of models though and if it continued long enough, gotta be something there. This draft though, and for me specifically, only guys I would trade back and still take are Lemon and Tyson. Some of this study is about weighing the top WR prospects against the other positional talent in the draft imo. Lemon and Tyson may slip, but I’d not hesitate in the top 15 on either one if needing a WR. Which like JJ and Lamb, don’t really care if they slip. To be totally transparent I have way less confidence in those guys than JJ and Lamb. But hey, this draft sucks. Is what it is.
 
Renegade7 said:
Building the receiving corps doesn't require a young prospect...if we had been able to sign Alec Pierce would you feel the same way?

I'm trying hard not to think of how badly we've been getting burned drafting WRs in the first round lately with respect to needing a young prospect either to replace who we had (Doctson after losing Garcon and DJax) or potentially be a replacement for what we had (Dotson in response to incoming Scary Terry negotiations). Every draft seems to have some young prospect at WR that can't miss that does miss. I can't tell if I'm being overcautiously or gunshot here.

JD5 plays the way he's capable of, WRs will want to play here, and we could potentially trade for one that can truly complement or replace Terry as our true #1 because of wanting to be part of this offense.
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Yes.

Because McLaurin might be in his last year and Pierce is a one trick pony. It’s a hell of a pony, though.

Having said that, it would take pressure off of WR at 7. But if Tate were there, depending on who else was there, I wouldn’t hesitate to take him.
 
Skinfanjon said:
It is a massive m difference, but the NFL doesn’t always get it right. I personally was huge on JJ and Lamb (you probably too), especially JJ compared to consensus, and know a lot of other dynasty folks were also. He got penalized because of Chase and even Burrow a bit. I saw a flat out stud. And it was an awesome draft in general so he got pushed down. Lamb was right there, too. I kinda view both of them as noise.

JSN had the injury in his last college year that also knocked him down

I guess my point is those can each be reasonably explained and in a small sample, I’m not sure this particular sifting tells much story. I’m open to these kind of models though and if it continued long enough, gotta be something there. This draft though, and for me specifically, only guys I would trade back and still take are Lemon and Tyson. Some of this study is about weighing the top WR prospects against the other positional talent in the draft imo. Lemon and Tyson may slip, but I’d not hesitate in the top 15 on either one if needing a WR. Which like JJ and Lamb, don’t really care if they slip. To be totally transparent I have way less confidence in those guys than JJ and Lamb. But hey, this draft sucks. Is what it is.
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I think the mega hits having explanations for their falling and being steals actually makes the data even more compelling, now that you’ve pointed that out. Good points. Makes me think that with latter first round picks, it may be smart to not just consider the production profile but also look for “narrative inefficiencies” in other teams’ draft boards to mine for players who shouldn’t have been overlooked in the early first. Made that up but it feels right, seems obvious though. But like what you pointed out with JJ being “punished” for sharing a field with Chase. Whereas if a guy doesn’t meet the production threshold AND there’s no discernible narrative value anchor, then whatever trump card traits are enticing you, probably won’t be enough to overcome the lack of college production.
 
Nicki picking for Washington I assume, she said in a podcast Downs is the best player in the draft so I gather she's always taking Downs in these exercises.

 
skinsinparadise said:
Nicki picking for Washington I assume, she said in a podcast Downs is the best player in the draft so I gather she's always taking Downs in these exercises.

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I believe that she also said recently that she wouldn't pick RB or WR in R1
 
Conn said:
I think the mega hits having explanations for their falling and being steals actually makes the data even more compelling, now that you’ve pointed that out. Good points. Makes me think that with latter first round picks, it may be smart to not just consider the production profile but also look for “narrative inefficiencies” in other teams’ draft boards to mine for players who shouldn’t have been overlooked in the early first. Made that up but it feels right, seems obvious though. But like what you pointed out with JJ being “punished” for sharing a field with Chase. Whereas if a guy doesn’t meet the production threshold AND there’s no discernible narrative value anchor, then whatever trump card traits are enticing you, probably won’t be enough to overcome the lack of college production.
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Hmmm so back half of round 1 + hitting the production score + narrative street push down helps identify elite WR. I could see that. Whereas without that extra combo, you end up with more Ridley’s and Flowers type guys. Both groups mixed with similar rate of duds. Interesting.
 
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