The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

Voice_of_Reason said:
I put this in the Covering the Commanders thread, but Nikki and Keim were 100% spitballing, and Nikki is out for all RB's, WRs and Safeties in round 1. Except for Downs because she thinks he's the best player in the draft. It made no sense. Probably because she had a Starbucks grande coffee with THREE!!!! shots of espresso. Which is less than the FIVE!!! shots she used to get in her coffee. That coffee could power a truck over the rockies.

I don't think Standig knows anything either. We know that there is no way Peters or anybody from the FO is going to tell a reporter, "so, we're not sure if Downs is a fit..."

I think all these guys are talking to agents, watching visits, and making educated guesses. I didn't hear Standig on Sheehan. He also said he would be very skeptical they would go after Linderbaum, and then they tried to make him the highest paid center, and failed because the Raiders made him the highest paid center of all time. So, he didn't know and guessed wrong on that one. So did others.
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I agree that neither Nickie nor Standig seem to know much more about this stuff than most posters on this forum.
 
Voice_of_Reason said:
Best Player Available factors in:
1. How good a player is
2. Fit of that player
3. Position of that player, and position value
4. Need of the position.

Just about every team uses these, and probably more things, to actually come up with a grade.

If not for this, Ron would have selected Cheeseman in the first.
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I think you have take Need off that list, because I don't think you want Need effecting your evaluation for 'best player'. The analysis of Best Player has to be objective, and determining Need has to be objective of what's available. He's either the best available, or your biggest need. SOMETIMES those overlap on the venn diagram, but the two need to be evaluated separately. Then you determine your draft strategy, and that's when need becomes a factor in the choice.

That all said, when you're picking top 10, I think you have to take the best player on the board. Outside of a couple factors, like you're not taking a QB, or LT, this year, but with so many different position groups cycling so many players throughout the course of a game, the best player who can be a day 1 impact at ANY position is how you continue to layer the best talent. It's how the best teams seem to always get the best players, because they dont give a damn what position they play, they want the biggest impact.


This year is an even bigger testament with Jeremiah Love. He appears to be the kind of guy that changes everything, not just the RB room. There are only a handful of players in the league right now that can effect that change like that. I like Tate, Tyson, and Styles, but does Love have the ability to be one of the 3 - 4 best players at his position? Does Tate, Tyson, or Styles have that ability? That's where the true debate comes in when you're figuring out who to put on the card.


As the draft goes on, and the talent level balances out a fair amount, the need factor becomes a much bigger part of the decision making, but when we're talking about the top talent, unless there is a massive need at a premium position, you dont pass on the better talent.
 
Primus Porcus said:
I think you have take Need off that list, because I don't think you want Need effecting your evaluation for 'best player'. The analysis of Best Player has to be objective, and determining Need has to be objective of what's available. He's either the best available, or your biggest need. SOMETIMES those overlap on the venn diagram, but the two need to be evaluated separately. Then you determine your draft strategy, and that's when need becomes a factor in the choice.

That all said, when you're picking top 10, I think you have to take the best player on the board. Outside of a couple factors, like you're not taking a QB, or LT, this year, but with so many different position groups cycling so many players throughout the course of a game, the best player who can be a day 1 impact at ANY position is how you continue to layer the best talent. It's how the best teams seem to always get the best players, because they dont give a damn what position they play, they want the biggest impact.


This year is an even bigger testament with Jeremiah Love. He appears to be the kind of guy that changes everything, not just the RB room. There are only a handful of players in the league right now that can effect that change like that. I like Tate, Tyson, and Styles, but does Love have the ability to be one of the 3 - 4 best players at his position? Does Tate, Tyson, or Styles have that ability? That's where the true debate comes in when you're figuring out who to put on the card.


As the draft goes on, and the talent level balances out a fair amount, the need factor becomes a much bigger part of the decision making, but when we're talking about the top talent, unless there is a massive need at a premium position, you dont pass on the better talent.
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I guarantee you every grade factors in need in some way shape or form. How, it might vary. However, if you have no WRs, you're going to give the WRs a bit of a boost because you need a WR. That's probably true for the higher ranked players, less so as you go down the draft board.

It might not be, and should not be, a huge component of the score. But it IS a factor.

GMSM picked Brandon Scherff over Leonard Williams. Why? He'll tell you they followed their board. Which is probably true. What's also true is the 'Skins OL was absolutely horrendous and they needed the best OL player they could get. There is no world where a talent evaluator as good as GMSM, and he really is pretty good at evaluating talent, wouldn't know that Leonard Williams isn't the better overall prospect than Scherff, who ended up as a (Jay Gruden voice) guuuuuaaaard. However they needed OL more than DL. So they picked OL.

That's the most obvious example I can think of from our team, but you see it everywhere. Need factors in. If just as a tie breaker, it is a factor.

What you don't want is for need to make you jump tiers so you are taking a player at a need position who you've graded significantly lower.

But maybe if you're roster is REALLY short at WR, you give the top WR a little bump in the grade. So they win the tie break.

For us, let's pretend Tate and (pick your favorite DE) were both available. And you had them graded exactly the same. Both are premium positions. Who are you picking?

You need WR. You don't need DE.

You pick the WR.
 
Voice_of_Reason said:
What you don't want is for need to make you jump tiers so you are taking a player at a need position who you've graded significantly lower.

But maybe if you're roster is REALLY short at WR, you give the top WR a little bump in the grade. So they win the tie break.

For us, let's pretend Tate and (pick your favorite DE) were both available. And you had them graded exactly the same. Both are premium positions. Who are you picking?

You need WR. You don't need DE.

You pick the WR.
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Absolutely, i said you evaluate Best Players, and you evaluate Need, and you formulate your draft strategy from it, but they can't effect each other, because you can't allow your Need to change how you evaluate a player.

I agree with the bolded / underlined part the most. You cannot allow yourself to drop talent tiers, and that's what I was saying when I was referencing Love / Tate / Tyson / Styles. Love appears to have the ability to be a top 5 player at his position, I don't want to pass on Love to grab an inferior talent simply because of how our WR looks right now. How you want to evaluate Tate / Tyson and determine where they stack up is up to each evaluator. If someone wants to grab Tate because he can be a no. 2 WR on a rookie deal, then I don't think I agree with that, simply because we believe WR is a bigger need. If you think Tate can come in and be in the same conversation with Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, and Jamar Chase... then by all means take him over Love... because It looks like Love has the ability to be in the same conversation as Saquan, CMC, and Derrick Henry regarding their impact on the offense.
 
DogofWar1 said:
NFL Stock Exchange doing a mock right now
Reese 2
Styles 3
LOVE to Titans at 4
TATE to Giants at 5 (boooo)
Trade back with Chiefs - Chiefs take Bain at 6
Bailey at 7 to us
Delane 8
Freeling 9
Downs finally goes at 10.

Almost a huge disaster if Chiefs took Bailey, but it sounds like Bain fits their system nicely.

I just...I would need Downs to come in and be Ed Reed very quickly for me to not be disappointed. Which in fairness to him, he might be, but safety in the top 10, you kinda have to be great out of the gate or its just not worth it.
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They from PFF love Bain so they are consistent in him going before 7 but in one of these drills they admitted this is how they feel about Bain but don't believe the NFL shares that love - so Bain likely dropping further then how they mock him by their own admission.

Don't get me wrong though I'd love it if they are right, love to see Bain go before 7.
 
Too early for any insider type to have an idea IMO who they covet. Party because I doubt they even know right now.
 
DogofWar1 said:
NFL Stock Exchange doing a mock right now
Reese 2
Styles 3
LOVE to Titans at 4
TATE to Giants at 5 (boooo)
Trade back with Chiefs - Chiefs take Bain at 6
Bailey at 7 to us
Delane 8
Freeling 9
Downs finally goes at 10.

Almost a huge disaster if Chiefs took Bailey, but it sounds like Bain fits their system nicely.

I just...I would need Downs to come in and be Ed Reed very quickly for me to not be disappointed. Which in fairness to him, he might be, but safety in the top 10, you kinda have to be great out of the gate or its just not worth it.
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Think I would take Delane there instead of Bailey. But I am not as high on Bailey as most here.
 
Bain is going to be available at 7 and we are going to pass on him...I am a U fan and love Bain
 
RedWolf said:
Bain is going to be available at 7 and we are going to pass on him...I am a U fan and love Bain
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Quite frankly, we should pass on him if Styles, Love or Tate are there.

I think Bain is going to be the best edge in this class. Him and Reese.

I wouldn’t touch Bailey.

But I don’t think I’d draft Bain given our current situation and the scheme we’re running.

And that pains me to say.
 
KDawg said:
Quite frankly, we should pass on him if Styles, Love or Tate are there.

I think Bain is going to be the best edge in this class. Him and Reese.

I wouldn’t touch Bailey.

But I don’t think I’d draft Bain given our current situation and the scheme we’re running.

And that pains me to say.
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That's fair I understand your point I know both of us like him
 
KDawg said:
Quite frankly, we should pass on him if Styles, Love or Tate are there.

I think Bain is going to be the best edge in this class. Him and Reese.

I wouldn’t touch Bailey.

But I don’t think I’d draft Bain given our current situation and the scheme we’re running.

And that pains me to say.
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What is the issue with Bailey
 
KDawg said:
Quite frankly, we should pass on him if Styles, Love or Tate are there.

I think Bain is going to be the best edge in this class. Him and Reese.

I wouldn’t touch Bailey.

But I don’t think I’d draft Bain given our current situation and the scheme we’re running.

And that pains me to say.
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This mean the universe is going to force us to draft Bailey or Downs.

You wouldn’t touch Bailey, I don’t want Downs.

We’re getting one of them because the Universe has a sense of humor.
 
Dlts20 said:
What is the issue with Bailey
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I’ve explained it ad naseum.

Many long posts.

Short version: I don’t think he’s as good as most people do. I think he is a high ceiling low floor guy who is currently closer to the floor than the ceiling.

First round potential, but mid to late first.
 
skinsinparadise, we get it you like Tate 😂 what’s that? 10-15 posts on the last 2 pages talking about Tate? At times just to yourself.

If Tate were such a HR threat, that would mean he would have a lot more TDs. Don’t think he’s going to be that dynamic of a down field threat in the NFL with that 40 time either. It’s not Desean 4.35.
 
BayouBrave86 said:
skinsinparadise, we get it you like Tate 😂 what’s that? 10-15 posts on the last 2 pages talking about Tate? At times just to yourself.

If Tate were such a HR threat, that would mean he would have a lot more TDs. Don’t think he’s going to be that dynamic of a down field threat in the NFL with that 40 time either. It’s not Desean 4.35.
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Your credibility when it comes to Tate went poof when you said he's a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

And although you could be proven correct, when it comes to the draft you have to work with the information at hand and you're the only person on the planet who thinks hes a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
 
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What’s clear is that there are widely ranging/varying views on the vast majority of the so called top 10 prospects.

Still struggling to be convinced that sitting at #7 is a great idea.
 
BayouBrave86 said:
skinsinparadise, we get it you like Tate 😂 what’s that? 10-15 posts on the last 2 pages talking about Tate? At times just to yourself.

If Tate were such a HR threat, that would mean he would have a lot more TDs. Don’t think he’s going to be that dynamic of a down field threat in the NFL with that 40 time either. It’s not Desean 4.35.
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As for Tate, you’re right — total scrub. UDFA?

I think we all definitely get that Tate content is not your favorite genre -- maybe like a 100 posts on it from you? But if you’re keeping Tate receipts, I respect the dedication. Now I’m just curious: is he the only player on the banned list, or are there others we should know about too?

Because whether you like a dude or not, I think plenty of people here are pretty interested in hearing from a guy who actually played the position. And if people respond to that. I think its fair for me to respond to the response. I know ita a delicate subject and I apologize for engaging.

It would be like I am not the biggest Bain guy here. But if Bruce Smith weighed in, I'd hazard a guess that people here would be more interested in his take on the player than mine?
 
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