The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

As a BPA guy for decades this pick is agonizing for me. In addition to the money and roster building component of locking up a premium position (receiver) at a reasonable cost is a pretty strong argument. In addition there is this wrinkle: The success or failure this organization rides on the performance of Jayden Daniels. Getting him back to his rookie season level of play is by far the most important thing for this team. So that means either Tate or Love to me.

By the way did JCM show that he can't catch the football? I don't remember a drop or too many opportunities.
 
As a BPA guy for decades this pick is agonizing for me. In addition to the money and roster building component of locking up a premium position (receiver) at a reasonable cost is a pretty strong argument. In addition there is this wrinkle: The success or failure this organization rides on the performance of Jayden Daniels. Getting him back to his rookie season level of play is by far the most important thing for this team. So that means either Tate or Love to me.

By the way did JCM show that he can't catch the football? I don't remember a drop or too many opportunities.

I agree but in the event tate or love are both gone id shift gears back to BPA.

These mock drafts having us take Tyson while downs, styles and bailey are on the board are giving me cerrato/Allen flashbacks.
 
I would be fine with any of the three if we are staying at 7. All of them would make the team immediately better imo.
I'd shy off of Downs and take Styles or Tate in a coin flip. I am a bigger fan of Styles but in our current WR situation, our hand would almost be forced to go WR
 
It makes more sense to go WR. However, I will say this. From a current roster perspective, especially if we get Aiyuk like we should. I feel somewhat comfortable with an injury pretty much everywhere except RB. I think that we added enough in the front 7 and even if Amos or Cross went down, we still have vets who have played a lot at those positions.

If Terry goes down, we are in trouble but I still feel a lot better than last year with Aiyuk, Dyamis connection with Jayden, Luke's improvement, I think most of us feel like Burk has potential, but most of all Okonkwo gives Jayden a legit threat that he will constantly lean on and grow with. I also see us going harder at Jennings or even some vets like Diggs or Deebo if we draft Love and they are still available.

However, if Bill went down, I won't feel comfortable going into games with those other guys as the primary runner. Some people talk about Bill may be a cut candidate if we get Love. That is ridiculous. Those other guys can't run like Bill and I still think that he can catch passes. If he goes down then our run game is not putting fear into anyone. That's a cherry on top to go with Love.

Not to mention someone that can be counted on in short yardage, goal line, and who can win a game on his own in 20 degree weather in January, or can go for 200 if Jayden is struggling or we can't stop the pass rush. Also if you look at it from the perspective of the other teams in the division. Who would they fear the most of us drafting. I think that Love puts the most fear in other Franchises.
 
I'd shy off of Downs and take Styles or Tate in a coin flip. I am a bigger fan of Styles but in our current WR situation, our hand would almost be forced to go WR
Downs is going to give you a big time leader in the back of your defense. Although I dont really consider him a true Free Safety either. And we just signed a box safety in Cross. Agree about he positional value of Tate over the other two.
 
Meanwhile, McCoy missed an entire year and is going to be a first rounder at corner.

Willis McGahee, a RB, tore every ligament in his leg and was still drafted in the first round.

If he was such an incredible talent he would have been drafted higher.

He had holes in his game and he fell to a 7th with those holes and the injury.
Don’t believe Bill had an injury?
You still want him even though we have Chenal, Luvu, and Magee?
Luvu’s on the last year of his deal and Magee is still a bit of a projection/question mark. Don’t know that Styles is the best choice when you account for positional value and team need, but he’d be a heck of an addition IMO.
I paid a lot of attention to Croskey-Merritt because this team was linked to him, so I dove in. The idea that he only played one game was a big part of the narrative for his fall in the draft but the other part was the mystery about whether he can catch the ball. It was a narrative, too.

In today's NFL, its important. It's like being a good pass rusher who can't stop the run -- unless you are elite at pass rushing, you are likely going to be a rotational player versus the edges who can do it all. Same idea with running back.
All told, Bill had 1 year of legit production, played at New Mexico State, hadn’t proven himself in the pass game, was a bit on the older side, essentially didn’t play his last year, and it was a really deep rb draft.

For me, I agree that I don’t love him as our defacto number 1 back because I think he needs to show a fair bit of progress in the passing game. He also really needs to work on ball security… for the sake of my heart if nothing else.

With that said, it’s true that a lot of backs (if not most or even all) come into the league needing to improve their pass pro. It’s not an easy thing, and certainly not automatic, but it also seems a fairly standard progression point.

I’m not sure I totally agree that Bill being in the lineup telegraphs run. He played 406 snaps and touched the ball 184 times (along with a handful of incompletions going his way). Now, maybe Kliff regrets that point, and maybe Blough sees it as a real problem. Who knows. The bottom line is that he needs to prove himself, so Peters adding two backs that have proven their versatility was a smart move IMO. I think it’ll be good for him to have adept pass catchers/blockers in the fold as examples - Ekeler was lost early, so I think Bill (maybe?) missed out on that mentorship.

It does feel that while no one is “hating” on Bill, some are maybe underselling him a little? I mean, if we just look at these 3 points:
(Fact): We had a very questionable pass game (injured qbs and injured/terrible receivers).
(Opinion): Bill being in the game telegraphed a run.
(Opinion): His vision isn’t good.
The obvious question becomes, how the heck did he produce like he did then? Because it wasn’t just “good for a 7th rounder”, he put up some serious numbers (as a runner).

A theory of mine, separate from the stuff above - I think his early success (and fame/recognition) caused his game to change slightly. I think he got into his head a bit and starting looking for the big play. It showed some patience on his end, but also lead to not taking the easy yardage at times, the yards the play was blocked for. I think this lead to a reduction in his carries for a stretch. It did feel to me that he kind of got back to his early play style late in the year, which gave me more hope for him going forward.

Not directing any of that at you SIP, just saw your post as a jumping off point.
 
I think the Croskey-Merritt stuff is way overthought.

He's an exciting runner but not elite. But love his sharp cuts-contact balance.

He fumbles, he's not a good pass protector, he's not a good pass catcher, yet.

He's turning 25 next month. That's old for a 2nd year RB.

His YPC was very good. If we want to ignore all the other stuff and just focus on that, its cool. If we want to think ball security, pass catching, pass protecting are all yet to come -- maybe so?

But its like any spot. I like some of what I saw from Jaylin Lane. 14 YPC. 2 punt returns for touchdowns. Good raw speed. Best is yet to come? Maybe. But I don't want him as the starting slot. I want someone else and if Lane overtakes him, awesome.

We got 1-2 years left on the Jayden rookie contract. This IMO is a SB window hopefully. This isn't like one of Ron's teams where in theory we are building for 2-3 years down the road. I want to win now.

If Croskey-Merritt kills it in training camp and overtakes name that RB, awesome. I am a team over player kind of guy. And I have enough stakes in Croskey-Merritt considering I was one of the few on the board clamoring for him BEFORE the draft.
 
It makes more sense to go WR. However, I will say this. From a current roster perspective, especially if we get Aiyuk like we should. I feel somewhat comfortable with an injury pretty much everywhere except RB. I think that we added enough in the front 7 and even if Amos or Cross went down, we still have vets who have played a lot at those positions.

If Terry goes down, we are in trouble but I still feel a lot better than last year with Aiyuk, Dyamis connection with Jayden, Luke's improvement, I think most of us feel like Burk has potential, but most of all Okonkwo gives Jayden a legit threat that he will constantly lean on and grow with. I also see us going harder at Jennings or even some vets like Diggs or Deebo if we draft Love and they are still available.

However, if Bill went down, I won't feel comfortable going into games with those other guys as the primary runner. Some people talk about Bill may be a cut candidate if we get Love. That is ridiculous. Those other guys can't run like Bill and I still think that he can catch passes. If he goes down then our run game is not putting fear into anyone. That's a cherry on top to go with Love.

Not to mention someone that can be counted on in short yardage, goal line, and who can win a game on his own in 20 degree weather in January, or can go for 200 if Jayden is struggling or we can't stop the pass rush. Also if you look at it from the perspective of the other teams in the division. Who would they fear the most of us drafting. I think that Love puts the most fear in other Franchises.

IMO Rachaad and Ford are comparable talent wise to Bill. They should be fine if any of the three go down. But I'd like them to add a back whether its one who is released that they like or in this draft.

As for WR, if they sign Aiyuk, they still IMO need more. They don't have a legit Y-slot WR. So I'd definitiely consider WR in the first like Tate (can play big slot and then take over for Terry in 2027) or perhaps a pure slot in the 3rd like Antione Williams.
 
I'm cool with RB or WR in the 1st. IF Love is there, I'd think you'd have to take him based off his overall performance and abilities. If not, get Tate if here is there, If both are gone and Downs, Styles (I doubt either will be) or Lemon are on the board, take one of them. I think Lemon's Combine interview is wearing off many.
 
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I think there is more to Bill's game, so I'd love to see him get more developed. That being said, I would buy a Love jersey immediately if the end up with him. I think they have to take Tate. I hate drafting for need, it bothers me to the core, but that receiver room isn't better than last year--just healthier.
 
QB is exempt from it because you're not going to draft a QB in the first round if you already have one, and if you don't have one.... you need one. Every other position group is absolutely should be BPA, but Position Value helps dictate that 'best player available' status. An All Pro WR is a 'better player' than an All Pro RG. An All Pro LT is a 'better player' than an All Pro RT. The best teams don't really let their depth chart dictate their draft strategy, because they set themselves up to be comfortable with their roster if they were to be entering the season, and they use the draft to strictly improve the team, instead of filling holes.


There is of course nuance when you're talking about specifics, like there's no way we take an OT at 7 because we have Tunsil, but everything else is on the table because most other positions play multiple players throughout the course of the game. WR / RB / Edge / DT / LB / CB / S... all positions that play multiple players at a time, or at least rotationally, so adding a premium player at one of those positions improves the unit, even if you have a position group you may be comfortable running with.
Best Player Available factors in:
1. How good a player is
2. Fit of that player
3. Position of that player, and position value
4. Need of the position.

Just about every team uses these, and probably more things, to actually come up with a grade.

If not for this, Ron would have selected Cheeseman in the first.
 
I heard Standig on with Sheehan this morning, sounds like Styles is very much in play at 7, as is Delane. He didn't think that Downs was an ideal fit w Cross in the fold, but said he is still a possibility with more of an eye to the future. He feels pass rusher is still a possibility.

Nickie J was on with Keim, she is a no for Love and to a lesser extent Tate at 7. Keim likes them both. Nickie feels Downs is a yes at 7, he is the best player in the draft.
 
I'd flip out if this happened


Sharp is such a slave to position value, this is not a surprising take from him.

Has anybody gone back and checked to see how close he ever gets form his mock to reality?

If I was betting, I would bet it wouldn't be very close. It feels like this is more what he thinks should happen than what will happen.

Has he gotten rid of that 70's porn mustache yet?
 
I heard Standig on with Sheehan this morning, sounds like Styles is very much in play at 7, as is Delane. He didn't think that Downs was an ideal fit w Cross in the fold, but said he is still a possibility with more of an eye to the future. He feels pass rusher is still a possibility.

Nickie J was on with Keim, she is a no for Love and to a lesser extent Tate at 7. Keim likes them both. Nickie feels Downs is a yes at 7, he is the best player in the draft.
I put this in the Covering the Commanders thread, but Nikki and Keim were 100% spitballing, and Nikki is out for all RB's, WRs and Safeties in round 1. Except for Downs because she thinks he's the best player in the draft. It made no sense. Probably because she had a Starbucks grande coffee with THREE!!!! shots of espresso. Which is less than the FIVE!!! shots she used to get in her coffee. That coffee could power a truck over the rockies.

I don't think Standig knows anything either. We know that there is no way Peters or anybody from the FO is going to tell a reporter, "so, we're not sure if Downs is a fit..."

I think all these guys are talking to agents, watching visits, and making educated guesses. I didn't hear Standig on Sheehan. He also said he would be very skeptical they would go after Linderbaum, and then they tried to make him the highest paid center, and failed because the Raiders made him the highest paid center of all time. So, he didn't know and guessed wrong on that one. So did others.
 
NFL Stock Exchange doing a mock right now
Reese 2
Styles 3
LOVE to Titans at 4
TATE to Giants at 5 (boooo)
Trade back with Chiefs - Chiefs take Bain at 6
Bailey at 7 to us
Delane 8
Freeling 9
Downs finally goes at 10.

Almost a huge disaster if Chiefs took Bailey, but it sounds like Bain fits their system nicely.

I just...I would need Downs to come in and be Ed Reed very quickly for me to not be disappointed. Which in fairness to him, he might be, but safety in the top 10, you kinda have to be great out of the gate or its just not worth it.
 
It makes more sense to go WR. However, I will say this. From a current roster perspective, especially if we get Aiyuk like we should. I feel somewhat comfortable with an injury pretty much everywhere except RB. I think that we added enough in the front 7 and even if Amos or Cross went down, we still have vets who have played a lot at those positions.

If Terry goes down, we are in trouble but I still feel a lot better than last year with Aiyuk, Dyamis connection with Jayden, Luke's improvement, I think most of us feel like Burk has potential, but most of all Okonkwo gives Jayden a legit threat that he will constantly lean on and grow with. I also see us going harder at Jennings or even some vets like Diggs or Deebo if we draft Love and they are still available.

However, if Bill went down, I won't feel comfortable going into games with those other guys as the primary runner. Some people talk about Bill may be a cut candidate if we get Love. That is ridiculous. Those other guys can't run like Bill and I still think that he can catch passes. If he goes down then our run game is not putting fear into anyone. That's a cherry on top to go with Love.

Not to mention someone that can be counted on in short yardage, goal line, and who can win a game on his own in 20 degree weather in January, or can go for 200 if Jayden is struggling or we can't stop the pass rush. Also if you look at it from the perspective of the other teams in the division. Who would they fear the most of us drafting. I think that Love puts the most fear in other Franchises.
What a great post. I agree JCM is the only back on the roster I feel comfortable getting the primary carries, his injury would be a tough one and totally change the offense.

I still can't believe the Titans will take a RB at 4. The Giants have other more pressing needs and already have a RB.
 
NFL Stock Exchange doing a mock right now
Reese 2
Styles 3
LOVE to Titans at 4
TATE to Giants at 5 (boooo)
Trade back with Chiefs - Chiefs take Bain at 6
Bailey at 7 to us
Delane 8
Freeling 9
Downs finally goes at 10.

Almost a huge disaster if Chiefs took Bailey, but it sounds like Bain fits their system nicely.

I just...I would need Downs to come in and be Ed Reed very quickly for me to not be disappointed. Which in fairness to him, he might be, but safety in the top 10, you kinda have to be great out of the gate or its just not worth it.
I've seen a few mocks like this recently where Bain goes before Bailey.

Bain does kind of look like Karlaftis in that they are both power players, Karlaftis arms' arent overly long either (under 33 in)
 
NFL Stock Exchange doing a mock right now
Reese 2
Styles 3
LOVE to Titans at 4
TATE to Giants at 5 (boooo)
Trade back with Chiefs - Chiefs take Bain at 6
Bailey at 7 to us
Delane 8
Freeling 9
Downs finally goes at 10.

Almost a huge disaster if Chiefs took Bailey, but it sounds like Bain fits their system nicely.

I just...I would need Downs to come in and be Ed Reed very quickly for me to not be disappointed. Which in fairness to him, he might be, but safety in the top 10, you kinda have to be great out of the gate or its just not worth it.
I'd take Downs (if healthy) or Delane over Bailey in that scenario
 

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