The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Discobob]

I don’t think there were always players we could have selected that would justify the trade down. Who could have we selected to justify passing on JJ Watt? Who could we have traded down for that would justify passing on Christian Gonzalez? Christian Darrisaw? Passing up on Kyle Hamilton for Jahan Dotson? Even give me Chris Olave over what we got out of that

Secondarily, the miss rate gets higher and higher the farther down you go. I’m not sure the higher miss rate vs more picks math actually works out in favor of trading down. Anecdotally, it hasn’t for us. But anecdotal evidence is the worst evidence. I’d love to see those maths.

My issue with the criticism of our trade backs is it is always coupled with the hypothetical alternative to the trade down.... which is always given the benefit of hindsight.

As an example, I could look at the 2008 draft and talk about how amazing our trade back was because we could have drafted Calais Campbell and Jamaal Charles with those two picks.

Of course that's not fair, because what we actually did was waste those picks on receivers that sucked.

You can't assume who we would have taken sans trade back... if we're being completely honest, you probably are wrong about who we would have taken (judging by how often the fan base predicts each pick).

So I land on the.... player evaluation is what matters, trade up, trade back, or stay out, all are subject to it.

 

[Anselmheifer]

Depends if they have as many holes as we do in real quality.

AP can’t land his targets in FA, might need a couple of deeper drafts, and only having 2 picks through 4 rounds isn’t ideal.

Can’t land his targets in FA? We didn’t land Pierce, Doubs, Hendrickson, Linderbaum, or Likely. Or Shaheed.

Pierce and Shaheed stayed with their original teams and Pierce, for a ridiculous contract. Linderbaum, ridiculous contract. Likely? We got the better TE for cheaper. Doubs? I get it. I would rather have had Jennings with less concussion concern, but maybe that’s a loss. Hendrickson? Would have been happy to have him, but not having the giant contract on a 31 year old let us do other things.

We had a really, really good FA this year. We filled a ton of needs spent a lot of money. Got impact players. Added youth and speed.

 

[ES1974]

Can’t land his targets in FA? We didn’t land Pierce, Doubs, Hendrickson, Linderbaum, or Likely. Or Shaheed.

Pierce and Shaheed stayed with their original teams and Pierce, for a ridiculous contract. Linderbaum, ridiculous contract. Likely? We got the better TE for cheaper. Doubs? I get it. I would rather have had Jennings with less concussion concern, but maybe that’s a loss. Hendrickson? Would have been happy to have him, but not having the giant contract on a 31 year old let us do other things.

We had a really, really good FA this year. We filled a ton of needs spent a lot of money. Got impact players. Added youth and speed.

I think we’ve had a more than decent FA so far, but he did miss out on probably 4 or 5 tier one FA. Philips was another we missed on. You can’t really dress that up any other way.

We have more gaps than ideal based on the draft picks we have, at present.

 

[method man]

My issue with the criticism of our trade backs is it is always coupled with the hypothetical alternative to the trade down.... which is always given the benefit of hindsight.

As an example, I could look at the 2008 draft and talk about how amazing our trade back was because we could have drafted Calais Campbell and Jamaal Charles with those two picks.

Of course that's not fair, because what we actually did was waste those picks on receivers that sucked.

You can't assume who we would have taken sans trade back... if we're being completely honest, you probably are wrong about who we would have taken (judging by how often the fan base predicts each pick).

So I land on the.... player evaluation is what matters, trade up, trade back, or stay out, all are subject to it.

Side note - isn’t it amazing how Campbell is still playing and beasting? Don’t think we have the room on the roster but would love to have him here next year at 40

 

[DogofWar1]

I know Keim is biased bc of his alma mater, but he mentions Tate too much for him to not be liked by this FO. Feeling like he might be the guy if he's there.

 

[burgold]

Right now, Tate is the "need" player and while it's scary to draft for need he's nearly in the conversation for BPA. He's probably just out of the medals (fourth place) relative to who we expect to be available.

 

[Discobob]

I know Keim is biased bc of his alma mater, but he mentions Tate too much for him to not be liked by this FO. Feeling like he might be the guy if he's there.

I'd tend to agree

My preferences are Love / Tate, but if both are gone, along with Mendoza and one of the OTs, we're gonna have a great defensive player available.

That said, unlike others, I'd be down with a trade back to a position where we could get Downs, Tyson, or Lemon.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I’d actually say that about the 3 OSU prospects. If all 3 were available at #7, I’d happily trade back 2 slots, add an extra pick, and happily select the one that was left if the others went #7 and #8.

Looks a wash to me.

I wouldn’t. I’d pick my preference. There’s always a preference. Whether it is because of position ir whatever.

If all three are identical then you pick the most premium position as the tie break.

 

[skinsinparadise]

 

[Dlts20]

I still say they will go with downs

 

[skinsinparadise]

I still say they will go with downs

I'd be surprised. I think Styles or Love. I'd be borderline shocked if Downs goes before 7.

 

[skinsinparadise]

I know Keim is biased bc of his alma mater, but he mentions Tate too much for him to not be liked by this FO. Feeling like he might be the guy if he's there.

Still early but i think Tate or Downs ends up a Commander.

 

[skinsinparadise]

My issue with the criticism of our trade backs is it is always coupled with the hypothetical alternative to the trade down.... which is always given the benefit of hindsight.

As an example, I could look at the 2008 draft and talk about how amazing our trade back was because we could have drafted Calais Campbell and Jamaal Charles with those two picks.

Of course that's not fair, because what we actually did was waste those picks on receivers that sucked.

You can't assume who we would have taken sans trade back... if we're being completely honest, you probably are wrong about who we would have taken (judging by how often the fan base predicts each pick).

So I land on the.... player evaluation is what matters, trade up, trade back, or stay out, all are subject to it.

Often the trade back involves bypassing a player with a higher ceiling for two lets say attractive players but not quite the prospect they passed over.

Demarcus Lawrence or hey we can get Trent Murphy AND Spencer Long

Tyler Lockett or Jamison Crowder and change. Crowder is no Lockett but he's pretty good too, no?

Hey maybe Dotson doesn't seem as a high of a prospect as Olave. But heck we can get him and Brian Robinson and that TE from Nevada.

JJ Watt looks off the charts as a prospect but hey Kerrigan is a good player too and heck we can get him AND Jarvis Jenkins.

Cooper Dejean was considered a first round prospect -- looks buiit in a lab. Sainristil not build in a lab not as ballyhooed a prospect but heck we can get him AND Sinnott.

In theory, what you are often doing trading down is another team doesn't feel like they can get the prospect level they desire at their pick so are willing to trade up to get that high level prospect. This team decided they'd rather have two good prospects, then one great one.

And considering there is arguably no team in the NFL who has drafted less elite prospects than this team. So doubling down to embrace more of this approach, hard for me to do it.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

I think we’ve had a more than decent FA so far, but he did miss out on probably 4 or 5 tier one FA. Philips was another we missed on. You can’t really dress that up any other way.

We have more gaps than ideal based on the draft picks we have, at present.

I can dress the Philips "miss" another way. We got a comparable player for 20 millions less. That works for me.

 

[Canuck]

I'd be surprised. I think Styles or Love. I'd be borderline shocked if Downs goes before 7.

Its gotta be Love at 7 if he is there, no?

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I know Keim is biased bc of his alma mater, but he mentions Tate too much for him to not be liked by this FO. Feeling like he might be the guy if he's there.

There is exactly zero percent chance Keim or any other beat reporter has been told about any prospect in any way.

This FO doesn't let that leak.

He might be talking to agents or trying to talk it into existence.

But there is no way anybody said anything to him directly on or off the record.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Its gotta be Love at 7 if he is there, no?

For me, yes but I don't think he's there.

 

[HoggLife]

For me, yes but I don't think he's there.

I agree. Love has been my want the whole time but I highly doubt he falls. But 2 of 3 will be there out of Tate, Downs amd Styles. And honestly ill be happy with any of those 3. Only players I will really hate to pick is Lemon or an offensive Lineman.

 

[Canuck]

I agree. Love has been my want the whole time but I highly doubt he falls. But 2 of 3 will be there out of Tate, Downs amd Styles. And honestly ill be happy with any of those 3. Only players I will really hate to pick is Lemon or an offensive Lineman.

I agree, Lemon or OL would be ok in a trade down, but not at 7.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I think we’ve had a more than decent FA so far, but he did miss out on probably 4 or 5 tier one FA. Philips was another we missed on. You can’t really dress that up any other way.

We have more gaps than ideal based on the draft picks we have, at present.

Yeah but there’s no way to get every FA target. There might have been 10 teams bidding for the top FA’s at each position.

You have to factor that you’re not going to win every auction.

Nor should you. Because if you do you’re spending irresponsibly.

Remember when Snyder did that 25 years ago? It didn’t make us better.

Being pragmatic while aggressive is what you want. It feels like that’s what we have right now…