The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[skinsinparadise]

In order to trade down, there has to be a player sitting there which people want to trade up for.

This is a really odd draft class. A lot of the top players play non-premium positions: Styles (LB), Downs (S), Love (RB). There is virtually no way anybody is trading up to 7 to pick the second QB in this draft.

Do all three of those players go in the top 6? I couldn't begin to tell you. There seem like there are 3 top DE prospects. Is somebody going to take the top tackle (whoever they deem it to be) in the top 6?

What I'm struggling with in a trade down is who would want to come up for what player that we shouldn't just take.

If Love is there (which I don't think he will be, but maybe the league gets position value cold feet on draft day), is there a team who wants to come up and grab him because he might be the best, most immediately impactful player in the draft? Maybe. But my argument would be, we should just sit tight and pick him.

I think for me, the players (at this point) I would be willing to move off of would be the DE's and Downs. If it's Styles, Love or the top WR prospect (whoever that is on their board), I would just stand pat and draft them.

If somebody desperately wants to come up for a DE or for Downs, ok. Depending on how far back and the value of the return, I'd consider that.

If I look into my crystal ball, I think we're taking a player at 7. I really want that to be an offensive play maker. Love or the best WR on their board.

It could be one of the teams with multiple draft picks including multiple firsts thinking hey maybe we should get one of those top tier players considering its not a top heavy draft.

I don't love the idea of playing along with that.

If they traded down there aren't too many players I am dying to have. M. Lemon, Tyson, Boston maybe?

But I'd rather have one of the front line players.

 

[skinsinparadise]

So, while I see your point… this is how I feel about Bailey’s skillset. I think it is tremendously limited.

So this conversation is largely: traits vs. skills

People seem more willing to bet on Bailey’s traits than Bain’s skill.

To a point, I get it. It’s easier to acquire skills than traits. Traits can be improved, but by this point they are largely developed with a finite amount of improvement.

But skills aren’t that far off in that department. Of course, there is always improvement. So Bailey can get better use of his hands, going to be difficult for him to acquire better bend as that is in large part a trait, but it can be developed.

Bain can’t grow longer arms.

Still, I’d opt for the more refined player that still has skill growth.

I'll rewatch Bailey soon but purely for debate entertainment value because I don't think it will be a real discussion come draft day. Too many draftniks, some who claim they talk to scouts like a McShay, Bruce Feldman etc seem convinced Bailey is going 2 or 3 so in my mind I am writing him off. I don't anticipate a Bailey versus Bain choice at 7.

I think at 7, you'll like have choices between Bain, Tate, Downs. Maybe Tate is gone by then. If Tate is gone, I think Styles might fall.

 

[KDawg]

I'll rewatch Bailey soon but purely for debate entertainment value because I don't think it will be a real discussion come draft day. Too many draftniks, some who claim they talk to scouts like a McShay, Bruce Feldman etc seem convinced Bailey is going 2 or 3 so in my mind I am writing him off. I don't anticipate a Bailey versus Bain choice at 7.

I think at 7, you'll like have choices between Bain, Tate, Downs. Maybe Tate is gone by then. If Tate is gone, I think Styles might fall.

On the same page here.

I don’t think I draft Bain or Bailey if Styles, Love, Tate are on the board.

I know. Herecy. We’re passing on a premium position for a bunch of non-premiums and a receiver who wasn’t even the 1 on his team. But it’s how I feel.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

It could be one of the teams with multiple draft picks including multiple firsts thinking hey maybe we should get one of those top tier players considering its not a top heavy draft.

I don't love the idea of playing along with that.

If they traded down there aren't too many players I am dying to have. M. Lemon, Tyson, Boston maybe?

But I'd rather have one of the front line players.

Me too. I'm actually in the minority most of the time that I actually don't like trade backs, especially in the first, and especially if it takes you from one tier to the next.

The best teams have multiple blue chip players, and the highest probability of finding a blue chip player is picking them high in the draft, especially at premium positions. I prefer quality over quantity.

You CAN find blue chip guys later in the draft. Hell, Brady was a 6th rounder. But it's much harder, much less likely, and you need more luck.

I have much less of a problem with 3rd round pick and later trades.

For first rounders, I kindof like to stay pat and pick. Or, if there's THAT guy, a modest trade up. KC traded UP (very ironically with Buffalo) to pick Mahomes. Who has tortured them ever since.

I know I'm absolutely in the minority on this, and there are all kindof analytics that go against me.

But I've always felt this way.

 

[Canuck]

I think we may see 2-3 OL (ARI & TEN before us) go top 10, there was not a lot of movement among OT in FA and teams are needy. Also a premium position.

 

[DWinzit]

I'll rewatch Bailey soon but purely for debate entertainment value because I don't think it will be a real discussion come draft day. Too many draftniks, some who claim they talk to scouts like a McShay, Bruce Feldman etc seem convinced Bailey is going 2 or 3 so in my mind I am writing him off. I don't anticipate a Bailey versus Bain choice at 7.

I think at 7, you'll like have choices between Bain, Tate, Downs. Maybe Tate is gone by then. If Tate is gone, I think Styles might fall.

If we had the Bain, Tate, Downs and Styles options at 7 I'd pray for a trade down o 8 9 or 10. I know, chances would be slim but I'd be listening.

I would have a difficult time not taking Styles but I can see them in love with Tate but either of those two or maybe a healthy Downs would be solid along with gaining whatever pick(s) you received.

 

[KDawg]

Me too. I'm actually in the minority most of the time that I actually don't like trade backs, especially in the first, and especially if it takes you from one tier to the next.

The best teams have multiple blue chip players, and the highest probability of finding a blue chip player is picking them high in the draft, especially at premium positions. I prefer quality over quantity.

You CAN find blue chip guys later in the draft. Hell, Brady was a 6th rounder. But it's much harder, much less likely, and you need more luck.

I have much less of a problem with 3rd round pick and later trades.

For first rounders, I kindof like to stay pat and pick. Or, if there's THAT guy, a modest trade up. KC traded UP (very ironically with Buffalo) to pick Mahomes. Who has tortured them ever since.

I know I'm absolutely in the minority on this, and there are all kindof analytics that go against me.

But I've always felt this way.

I think if you’re in the back half of the first trade backs are always more viable. When blue chips are gone is when I start thinking about trading back.

If you only have two blue chips on your evals and you’re picking 8th and they’re gone… sure. I get that.

But the blue chip well has to be dry.

 

[Canuck]

Think it was Jeremiah who said recently that KC could look to trade up for Love even with Walker in the fold. LAR and MIN also could be in the fold for Love.

 

[skinsinparadise]

If we had the Bain, Tate, Downs and Styles options at 7 I'd pray for a trade down o 8 9 or 10. I know, chances would be slim but I'd be listening.

I would have a difficult time not taking Styles but I can see them in love with Tate but either of those two or maybe a healthy Downs would be solid along with gaining whatever pick(s) you received.

Yeah Styles would be the guy too for me in that case. If they don't do anything else in FA, then WR clearly becomes urgent. At least judging by buzz, Tate if he falls is unlikely to get pass the Saints. I know some mock draft types think Lemon is the best WR in this class. I am not quite there. But I can see Lemon being a surprise top 10 pick for somebody.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I think if you’re in the back half of the first trade backs are always more viable. When blue chips are gone is when I start thinking about trading back.

If you only have two blue chips on your evals and you’re picking 8th and they’re gone… sure. I get that.

But the blue chip well has to be dry.

Maybe.

I have a really hard time with "these 4 guys are all at the same grade and we don't care which one we get so we can trade back and get one of them."

Maybe it's different in football.

In my real life, if I have 4 candidates, after a round of reviews, we pick a person and we have a first choice. If we don't get that choice, we go to the second choice. We don't end up with ties.

I just have to think even with similarly graded players, there is a preference. And if that's the case, just stay and pick the dude.

I could be wrong. And I do understand the value of more picks.

However, I've just always been more side-eye on the trade backs early in drafts.

 

[DWinzit]

Yeah Styles would be the guy too for me in that case. If they don't do anything else in FA, then WR clearly becomes urgent. At least judging by buzz, Tate if he falls is unlikely to get pass the Saints. I know some mock draft types think Lemon is the best WR in this class. I am not quite there. But I can see Lemon being a surprise top 10 pick for somebody.

To me Downs, Lemon, Tyson and Bain have nicks for various reasons. If I had to take one of those and we hadn't brought in a WR2 I think I'd take Tyson but honestly due to any possible health issues, I can see them passing on him

 

[KDawg]

Maybe.

I have a really hard time with "these 4 guys are all at the same grade and we don't care which one we get so we can trade back and get one of them."

Maybe it's different in football.

In my real life, if I have 4 candidates, after a round of reviews, we pick a person and we have a first choice. If we don't get that choice, we go to the second choice. We don't end up with ties.

I just have to think even with similarly graded players, there is a preference. And if that's the case, just stay and pick the dude.

I could be wrong. And I do understand the value of more picks.

However, I've just always been more side-eye on the trade backs early in drafts.

I have a hard time with that, too.

 

[Discobob]

We have gotten raped on every significant trade down for the last 20 years. I don’t understand the trade down crew here.

The only way I’m trading down, is if Love, Styles, Bailey, Reese, and Tate, are all gone. And then I might drop to 10 or 11, but not further.

Also, this draft is widely regarded as top heavy, in the sense that multiple people have said there are only 11 or 12 prospects in this draft worthy of first round grades. So, we need an impact player but we are going to drop to 16 or 20? Makes no sense

I don't understand this line of thinking.

Your issue is with our talent evaluation, not with trade downs IMO. There are countless examples of both trade ups and trade downs for players that did absolutely nothing. It's not trade that was bad, it's the player selection.

On top of that, there are players we could have selected in our trade down positions that would have been good picks.... people assume the best case scenario evaluating a trade back. However, there is also a good chance we might have picked a different player than who you are assuming we'd take... that player could have sucked too!

 

[Anselmheifer]

L

Yeah Styles would be the guy too for me in that case. If they don't do anything else in FA, then WR clearly becomes urgent. At least judging by buzz, Tate if he falls is unlikely to get pass the Saints. I know some mock draft types think Lemon is the best WR in this class. I am not quite there. But I can see Lemon being a surprise top 10 pick for somebody.

I don’t know. If Live, Tate, Bailey, Reese, and Styles are gone, I’d at least think about Lemon. I don’t think we’d consider Baine. Downs is a great safety prospect, but plays a non premium position and we need weapons more than a safety.

Maybe.

I have a really hard time with "these 4 guys are all at the same grade and we don't care which one we get so we can trade back and get one of them."

Maybe it's different in football.

In my real life, if I have 4 candidates, after a round of reviews, we pick a person and we have a first choice. If we don't get that choice, we go to the second choice. We don't end up with ties.

I just have to think even with similarly graded players, there is a preference. And if that's the case, just stay and pick the dude.

I could be wrong. And I do understand the value of more picks.

However, I've just always been more side-eye on the trade backs early in drafts.

Exactly this. Exactly.

I don't understand this line of thinking.

Your issue is with our talent evaluation, not with trade downs IMO. There are countless examples of both trade ups and trade downs for players that did absolutely nothing. It's not trade that was bad, it's the player selection.

On top of that, there are players we could have selected in our trade down positions that would have been good picks.... people assume the best case scenario when we trade back. However, there is also a good chance we might have picked a different player than who you are assuming we'd take... that player could have sucked too!

I don’t think there were always players we could have selected that would justify the trade down. Who could have we selected to justify passing on JJ Watt? Who could we have traded down for that would justify passing on Christian Gonzalez? Christian Darrisaw? Passing up on Kyle Hamilton for Jahan Dotson? Even give me Chris Olave over what we got out of that

Secondarily, the miss rate gets higher and higher the farther down you go. I’m not sure the higher miss rate vs more picks math actually works out in favor of trading down. Anecdotally, it hasn’t for us. But anecdotal evidence is the worst evidence. I’d love to see those maths.

 

[skinsinparadise]

As to trade downs. Cerrato got fleeced. Bruce Allen got fleeced. Mike Shanahan got fleeced. Scot McCloughan got fleeced. Ron Rivera got fleeced. Adam Peters got fleeced.

Last time this team won a trade down deal was the Casserly Ditka one.

Watching these top 100 player shows and having almost no representation from this team while watching guys like JJ. Watt, Demarcus Lawrence, Cooper Dejean, Tyler Lockett, Kyle Hamilton -- 4 of those 5 playing being the dudes that other teams selected with Washington's pick, makes me cringe.

 

[ES1974]

I have a really hard time with "these 4 guys are all at the same grade and we don't care which one we get so we can trade back and get one of them."

I’d actually say that about the 3 OSU prospects. If all 3 were available at #7, I’d happily trade back 2 slots, add an extra pick, and happily select the one that was left if the others went #7 and #8.

Looks a wash to me.

 

[DogofWar1]

At the same time, wouldn't that logic apply to any teams potentially trading up?

 

[ES1974]

At the same time, wouldn't that logic apply to any teams potentially trading up?

Depends if they have as many holes as we do in real quality.

AP can’t land his targets in FA, might need a couple of deeper drafts, and only having 2 picks through 4 rounds isn’t ideal.

 

[RWJ]

Not a big fan of going DB anywhere near pick #7 this year, although a top DB selection isn’t the worst idea if we’ve fixed the elephant in the room matter on offense.

My DB standouts, if we moved around picks, also noting these online combine write ups, are….

Chris Johnson
San Diego State · CB · Senior

Johnson had the most impressive overall workout among the combine cornerbacks, which should put him in the top-50 conversation. He checked the necessary boxes with his measurements (6-0 3/8, 193 pounds, 9 7/8-inch hands). He ran a strong 4.40-second 40 and had a 38-inch vertical jump. During on-field drills, his backpedal was smooth and he showed the ability to turn on a dime. Johnson double-caught and dropped a couple of passes but he looked good bringing in others.

IF we get a second and can draft Johnson, I'm all behind it. He's good and fits!

 

[ES1974]

If you only have two blue chips on your evals and you’re picking 8th and they’re gone… sure. I get that.

But the blue chip well has to be dry.

Appreciate I’m very late to this thread, so apol’s if this is old ground, but how many blue chips you got on your list this year?