The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Just watched Dillon Thieneman as there's been a lot of mentions of him lately. I like him, just not sure he's a real 1st rounder. He's in that same Mansoor Delane tier to me of 20's to 40's for pick range.

When Thieneman is shallow, he's got great awareness of routes crossing behind him and then follows them underneath (while keeping eyes on the QB) which takes it away. I've been impressed by that. He's versatile in alignments. They do 3 safety looks a few times where pre-snap it appears to almost be a Tampa 2-esque coverage where he's practically a deep Mike LB (Caleb Downs also does that on occasion). I wish I had All-22 film of both as safeties can quickly be cut off the screen. I've watched Mendoza throw against both and...I mean, what can I say. If Mendoza wants to throw a sideline back shoulder, there's nothing a safety can do to even be involved on that play.

I do not think he's as fluid as Downs when coming downhill, and I think Downs usually gets on the plus-leverage side of blockers better than Thieneman. Downs is mocked in the 1st for a reason, he may not have the juice of an elite athlete, but he is fluid. Thieneman also is noticeably different (in this case different is worse) than Downs at setting himself up to make a tackle on a ballcarrier. That's kind of like Downs best trait. But Thieneman is hustling and at times arriving to help on a tackle when you thought he wouldn't be able to get there. There are times Thieneman is the first guy to the ballcarrier, he can't finish the tackle, but he does hold up the ballcarrier for long enough that teammates can rally. I don't mind that much, as the yards gained after the Thieneman tackle attempt are often less than what the ballcarrier would have gotten if it wasn't someone like Thieneman being quick to the action.

I wish I had more film of both, some All-22. There's some give and take about who is better in what coverages between Downs and Thieneman. Areas where Downs is better isn't like Thieneman is bad, he's also good.

 

[DWinzit]

This front office is so lame. George Allen would trade our 2 later first round draft picks, that we don't have, and our 4 second round picks for the second pick overall and pick Bailey. Then we would have many options at 7.

The team did do that in 2012. It paid off for a year and half.

• Rams Received: 2012 1st Round Pick (No. 6), 2012 2nd Round Pick (No. 39), 2013 1st Round Pick (No. 22), 2014 1st Round Pick (No. 2).

I love Bailey but this team is not a player away. IMO this team needs a major upgrading in age and talent across the board.

 

[burgold]

The team did do that in 2012. It paid off for a year and half.

• Rams Received: 2012 1st Round Pick (No. 6), 2012 2nd Round Pick (No. 39), 2013 1st Round Pick (No. 22), 2014 1st Round Pick (No. 2).

I love Bailey but this team is not a player away. IMO this team needs a major upgrading in age and talent across the board.

I agree with you that we're not one player away, but somehow were were one player away in 2024. Daniels really ignited this team in an impossible way. I'm not sure if there can be a guy like that on defense, but I don't think we're as far away as we think. Injuries played such a huge role. OTOH, with two rookie playcallers it might take time to get good again even if we return to form (and get the players we need.)

 

[DWinzit]

I agree with you that we're not one player away, but somehow were were one player away in 2024. Daniels really ignited this team in an impossible way. I'm not sure if there can be a guy like that on defense, but I don't think we're as far away as we think. Injuries played such a huge role. OTOH, with two rookie playcallers it might take time to get good again even if we return to form (and get the players we need.)

With new OC and DC's come even more personnel upgrades than we would have required had we stayed with the same. There is no one stud in this draft that will totally change a team as dramatically as a young athletic franchise QB could do. Sure FA can resolve some of the concerns but this team is has a dearth of young talent...and on rookie contracts to assist the cap for an ability to spend more on FA where they can reach for special proven NFL players that fit the profile they want

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Bailey is not good enough to trade up for. He would need to be more stout against the run and have great bend for that. He's not a Myles Garrett level of prospect.

 

[philibusters]

I agree. David Bailey is my favorite prospect given team need, position value, and how good I think the player is. But I am not sure based solely on how good he is I have him in the first tier. I think my first tier is Jeremiah Love, Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese, and Caleb Downs in no particular order. Bailey is a player I would probably put him in my second tier which consists of maybe 6 or 7 players.

 

[burgold]

Interesting that Caleb Downs is on that first tier. From what I read (mostly on this board) he's smart, instinctual, a leader, and a good tackler, but he doesn't have elite speed or athleticism and he doesn't generate many turnovers. The latter two make it hard for me to see him on that super first tier elite level, but I didn't see many of his games so maybe his impact on the game outweighs the lack of top speed or knack for dislodging/intercepting the ball.

 

[HTTR]

Interesting that Caleb Downs is on that first tier. From what I read (mostly on this board) he's smart, instinctual, a leader, and a good tackler, but he doesn't have elite speed or athleticism and he doesn't generate many turnovers. The latter two make it hard for me to see him on that super first tier elite level, but I didn't see many of his games so maybe his impact on the game outweighs the lack of top speed or knack for dislodging/intercepting the ball.

I can’t speak to his speed or athleticism, I’ll let some of the more knowledgeable posters handle that. Hard to believe a safety would be rated that high, if that’s the case. With the turnovers, that may have a lot to do with teams avoiding him. Emmanuel Forbes was a turnover machine in college.

 

[Conn]

 

[philibusters]

Interesting that Caleb Downs is on that first tier. From what I read (mostly on this board) he's smart, instinctual, a leader, and a good tackler, but he doesn't have elite speed or athleticism and he doesn't generate many turnovers. The latter two make it hard for me to see him on that super first tier elite level, but I didn't see many of his games so maybe his impact on the game outweighs the lack of top speed or knack for dislodging/intercepting the ball.

I think Caleb Downs has not one but two elite traits for a safety. His coverage skills on in breakers either in the box or drags and slants or from deeper on digs is elite. I think he is also elite in run defense. As a post safety having to play backwards or as a deep safety in a two high structure on outbreakers he is solid to good, not elite, but he is elite in two skill sets for a safety. There is a lot of variability in things like turnovers. Ideally you want would want a few more turnovers over his career, but I think the film shows him as elite in two traits. David Amerson who we drafted in the 2nd round had 13 interceptions in a single season. Emmanuel Forbes was an interception machine in college. Things like zone scheme and the player playing for interceptions rather than fundamental techniques can increase interceptions--but even accounting for that, there is just a lot of luck/variability involved. In terms of his athleticism, his lack of it could certainly limit his ceiling and stop him from becoming an Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu (4.33 forty) player. But there are plenty of elite safeties who lack athleticism. Kyle Hamilton's 4.59 forty time knoicked out of the top 10 to like pick 14. He is elite even if he won't be a Reed or Polamalu. The next year, Brian Branch who some people had using the pick we took Forbes with fell all the way out of the first round to the middle of the second round cause he ran 4.58. Xavier McKinney 4.63 is exellent, Talanoa Hufanga 4.61, Kam Curl 4.60, Kam Chancellor 4.67, Harrison Smith 4.57, Justin Simmons 4.61. Even Ed Reed was 4.57. Most of our safeties like Quan Martin 4.46, Percy Buter 4.38, Darrick Forrest 4.41 Will Harris also 4.41, meanwhile Kam Curl at 4.6 was better. Ability to read things out, trigger quickly once you make the read, play the run are just more important than raw athleticism for safety.

 

[HTTR]

Wasn’t that the same knock we heard on Chase Young? Dominated against lesser opponents, but not as much when he faced someone who can come close to matching his athleticism.

 

[HTTR]

I think Caleb Downs has not one but two elite traits for a safety. His coverage skills on inner breakers either in the box or drags and slants or from deeper on digs is elite. I think he is also elite in run defense. As a post safety having to play backwards or as a deep safety in a two high structure on outbreakers he is solid to good, not elite, but he is elite in two skill sets for a safety. There is a lot of variability in things like turnovers. Ideally you want would want a few more turnovers over his career, but I think the film shows him as elite in two traits. David Amerson who we drafted in the 2nd round had 13 interceptions in a single season. Emmanuel Forbes was an interception machine in college. Things like zone scheme and the player playing for interceptions rather than fundamental techniques can increase interceptions--but even accounting for that, there is just a lot of luck/variability involved. In terms of his athleticism, his lack of it could certainly limit his ceiling and stop him from becoming an Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu (4.33 forty) player. But there are plenty of elite safeties who lack athleticism. Kyle Hamilton's 4.59 forty time knoicked out of the top 10 to like pick 14. He is elite even if he won't be a Reed or Polamalu. The next year, Brian Branch who some people had using the pick we took Forbes with fell all the way out of the first round to the middle of the second round cause he ran 4.58. Xavier McKinney 4.63 is exellent, Talanoa Hufanga 4.61, Kam Curl 4.60, Kam Chancellor 4.67, Harrison Smith 4.57, Justin Simmons 4.61. Even Ed Reed was 4.57. Most of our safeties like Quan Martin 4.46, Percy Buter 4.38, Darrick Forrest 4.41 Will Harris also 4.41, meanwhile Kam Curl at 4.6 was better. Ability to read things out, trigger quickly once you make the read, play the run are just more important than raw athleticism for safety.

Great info there. Seems like straight line speed is not the be all end all for safeties. Makes sense because I would imagine a faster reaction time can easily make up for those fraction of a second differences in 40 times.

 

[philibusters]

To me Bailey has one elite trait for an edge rusher (explosiveness/speed). He is solid-good in other areas, and fairly average in some others. I do think he is a very average run defender and I think his bend is average maybe a little bit above average. Elite bend requires flexibile ankles and hips. His ankles are pretty flexible and that allows him to change direction while maintainiing speed, but the hips are a bit stiff. That makes him stay more upright on the bend which makes his center of gravity high and him more vunerable to a punch it also means he has to lean in more on the OT to stay upright and crafty tackles can use things like snatch and traps moves to try to use the players momentum against them.

Given the team need, positional value, and that I think Bailey will be good, I still have him #1 on my list. Will Anderson who is like first team all pro and Nolan Smith are players with the same combo of elite explosiveness, flexible ankles, and slightly stiff hips that are very good. But they both end up being more speed to power than true corner winners because of that stiffness in the hips. Not that the Texans are complaining about Will Anderson and while Nolan Smith is not Will Anderson he is a good pass rusher too (though more what you hope to get later in teh first round)

 

[Always Commander Never Captain]

Kyle Hamilton was still athletic though, cause he was a very large safety. 6'4 and 220. Decent athletic testing combined with tape showing it's functional.

Hamilton has also kind of waffled between Elite and Above Average in the NFL. Safety can be a bit more other personnel on the defense dependant. The better the team around them the more damage they can do. Worst case scenario for a great safety is them being stuck doing something because nobody else on the D can do it and the offenses know it.

Downs is supposed to be average size for a safety. 6'0 and 205. Which is totally fine for his NFL career, but average athleticism on top of that means it's a bit harder to justify true Blue Chip status.

 

[DWinzit]

Great info there. Seems like straight line speed is not the be all end all for safeties. Makes sense because I would imagine a faster reaction time can easily make up for those fraction of a second differences in 40 times.

Yes butt not just safeties but hits you can kind of put them and LB's in a similar class I think. Reaction time is definitely important but it is more about their instincts, football IQ and something that isn't always taken into consideration but their game preparedness. Along with the training the players do with their reposition coaches, a lot of these guys study the heck of their opponents each week to understand their traits.

 

[HTTR]

Yes butt not just safeties but hits you can kind of put them and LB's in a similar class I think. Reaction time is definitely important but it is more about their instincts, football IQ and something that isn't always taken into consideration but their game preparedness. Along with the training the players do with their reposition coaches, a lot of these guys study the heck of their opponents each week to understand their traits.

Definitely. Look at Jamin Davis. Great 40 time, but it took him all day to figure out which way to run.

 

[DWinzit]

Definitely. Look at Jamin Davis. Great 40 time, but it took him all day to figure out which way to run.

He is still trying to find the RB

 

[Solitary Man]

I don’t think it can be overstated how interested the Chiefs will be in trading up to get Jeremiah Love. Sure it is the worst kept secret that they are interested in him. How many chances would a team like KC be in position to get a franchise running back?

I would demand a huge return for the 9 to 7 jump. Explain to KC that several other teams are trying to get to 7 and offering a bunch of picks and that Love appears to be their target.

 

[Gooseneck]

The team did do that in 2012. It paid off for a year and half.

• Rams Received: 2012 1st Round Pick (No. 6), 2012 2nd Round Pick (No. 39), 2013 1st Round Pick (No. 22), 2014 1st Round Pick (No. 2).

I love Bailey but this team is not a player away. IMO this team needs a major upgrading in age and talent across the board.

total different scenario-George Allen traded picks we didn't have away

 

[KDawg]

I am firmly of the opinion that Bailey is overrated and while I think he has pro potential I think he is a significant project as it pertains to every part of the game that isn't pass rush. He is ABYSMAL in run defense.

And he struggles against the higher quality tackles.

If you are rating Bailey above Bain it is very likely because you are betting on traits, which I get. Bain does have short arms. But based on tape I have no idea how anyone would say Bailey has better overall film.