The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Conn]

Its an odd off season in some ways with 2 points converging IMO

A. Both FA and the draft are somewhat strong on their position of needs

B. Desperation to win now. I know some disagree with me about this but I feel strongly about this point.

So for me it feels a bit like cramming for a finals exam when you know you don't have time to cover the full text book so instead it's about how to you piece together enough of the most critical chapters to prepare

If you think about the politics of winning now.

A. I don't see Peters with both McCaffrey and Lane on the roster coupled with them supposedly high on Burks, bring in another mid round WR. They don't need a log jam of up and coming in theory WRs. But an obvious high end dude? I get the idea that a high end dude might slip to the early 3rd. Maybe but I am betting they don't go WR if they don't take one in the first round.

B. I feel the same way about RB, I don't think they take one if they don't take Love in the first.

C. to complement the points I just made, if I am a betting man, I'd say they go FA for WR and RB.

D. They IMO cannot afford to leave the draft to address edge. They sort of did it last year and it blew up in their face -- the board didn't quite fall their way, that narrative came out after the draft. No way I think they bet on that again.

E. They got to do TE in FA. It's part of the reason why I haven't dived too deep into TE in the draft. I doubt they do it in the draft for various reasons including mid round TE's rarely hit the ground running, Maybe Stowers or Klare in the early third but I'd bet against it.

F. CB is tricky. Do they like Sainristill inside or outside? They need to bring in another corner. Tough for me to see them leaving it to the draft but maybe.

G. Do they bring Wagner back? Do they like Magee to start?

So if they go Edge, WR, RB, TE and maybe CB in FA. That would leave the draft to be somewhat BPA. But if I was betting on some spots they'd likely draft another position after round 1 everything being equal because of FA as to: RB, TE, WR, OT.

Hardest for me to guess S, LB, RB, CB for different reasons.

If they don't bring back Wagner and don't sign one in FA, I'd guess they are betting on Magee and or they'd take one in the draft. LB and safety are stacked in this draft and because the positions aren't high premium, the odds are good there will be a good one in the early third.

What this all comes down to is that we sort of need a monster FA class for all this to work out, given our light draft resources and heavy needs and the status of this regime’s leash.

If we don’t pop off in FA I think the mood going into this draft is going to automatically be down…because how high can the expectations really be

 

[burgold]

As you mentioned, the experience they DO have still informs them, though. So I don’t necessarily even agree with the hopefulness of the premise. They could easily still have assumptions, preferences, and preconceptions that prevent them from being fully flexible and utilizing whatever personnel they’re given, just like an experienced set-in-his-ways guy could. The lack of experience they have could mean the gaps in their knowledge prevent them from taking full advantage of whatever flexibility they may theoretically have. Hopefully they are creative, flexible-minded guys. That would be great. But their lack of “bad experience” definitely doesn’t guarantee it.

In one respect, I liken the opportunity to be similar to Gibbs. Not saying anything about their ability or aptitude, just the situation.

Gibbs came in as an Air Coryell disciple. He imagined a wide open passing attack. He even tried to implement it which led to his infamous O'fer start. Then, he realized what he had and switched it up. So, being new, he didn't do what Norv (What we do works) Turner did which was stick to his formula no matter the situation or personnel. He decided a bruising running back and Smurfs required a different approach. By the time, we get to the Posse, Gibbs is no longer leaning on three yards and a cloud of dust. He alters his scheme again because he has a do everything running back and three very good receivers.

So, what I'm saying is that these new coordinators have a chance to look at everything afresh and ask what can they do great. So often, we had players forced to do what they couldn't do because the scheme demanded it or the coaches were too dogmatic. Mike Sainristil had to be a nickel because he was small. Brandon Coleman had to be a guard because that's what the draft recommendation was. Too often we didn't care if the player was a square peg. The round hole had to be plugged.

Blough and Jones, if they are smart, can design their schemes purely based on the ingredients in the pantry. Now, they can (and should) recommend the grocer by them certain favored ingredients, but they don't have to make pizza if they have no flour, no tomatoes, but some really great seafood.

 

[Conn]

I think its just more that for me, we have so many needs I'd rather the 3rd rounder go to the defensive side. We already have a bunch of decent young WR3-5 that are good STs. We have gaps in the new schemed D all over the starting and backups.

We are so limited with just a 1st and 3rd early in the draft we shouldn't be taking a repetitive position to what we already possess

Oh for sure, I’m open to that. More evangelizing that some of these 3rd + later picks have to start hitting in a bigger way once in a while for this current operation to work out. That could be offense or defense, for sure. But we can’t just keep ending up with ST’s contributors.

 

[Conn]

In one respect, I liken the opportunity to be similar to Gibbs. Not saying anything about their ability or aptitude, just the situation.

Gibbs came in as an Air Coryell disciple. He imagined a wide open passing attack. He even tried to implement it which led to his infamous O'fer start. Then, he realized what he had and switched it up. So, being new, he didn't do what Norv (What we do works) Turner did which was stick to his formula no matter the situation or personnel. He decided a bruising running back and Smurfs required a different approach. By the time, we get to the Posse, Gibbs is no longer leaning on three yards and a cloud of dust. He alters his scheme again because he has a do everything running back and three very good receivers.

So, what I'm saying is that these new coordinators have a chance to look at everything afresh and ask what can they do great. So often, we had players forced to do what they couldn't do because the scheme demanded it or the coaches were too dogmatic. Mike Sainristil had to be a nickel because he was small. Brandon Coleman had to be a guard because that's what the draft recommendation was. Too often we didn't care if the player was a square peg. The round hole had to be plugged.

Blough and Jones, if they are smart, can design their schemes purely based on the ingredients in the pantry. Now, they can (and should) recommend the grocer by them certain favored ingredients, but they don't have to make pizza if they have no flour, no tomatoes, but some really great seafood.

Can’t disagree with the gist of your message, certainly. But a guy like Gibbs doing that…let’s set aside that he’s a special, HOF coach. Pretend that doesn’t impact the comparison. He still had 15 years of positional coaching and two years of OC experience for two different teams, before he went down the path you describe with us. He had an entire career of absorbing different ideas from his own bosses before what you lay out happened. Quite a stark contrast to the “newness” Blough has. To the point that I don’t know if it’s a helpful comparison at all.

We have to hope that our coordinators can tell their ass from their elbows, and that they get creative and inclusive with whatever pieces they have on the roster out of desperation, at the least. Hopefully out of superior creativity and flexibility, but at worst out of desperation. Will be fascinating to watch either way.

 

[burgold]

Oh for sure, I’m open to that. More evangelizing that some of these 3rd + later picks have to start hitting in a bigger way once in a while for this current operation to work out. That could be offense or defense, for sure. But we can’t just keep ending up with ST’s contributors.

Amen.

We need more Bills and to some extent more Brandon Colemans or Magees. More, we have to actually let these guys on the field enough to see if they can become players.

One question I had was whether some of last year's draft picks will be able to step up and be more than special teamers. For example, does Lane actually have suspect hands or were his drops more a result of him running poor routes and not getting where he needed to be? A great punt returner is valuable, but if he can be a viable field stretcher and YAC guy that'd be even better. So yes, I want us to start hitting on more than special teamers but I also want the coaches to make them more than special teamers or give them more opportunties to prove what they are and what they can become.

So, Peters has to do better, but I suspect so do the coaches.

Edit: And Jones has had 17 years coaching experience to Gibbs' 15

 

[Conn]

Amen.

We need more Bills and to some extent more Brandon Colemans or Magees. More, we have to actually let these guys on the field enough to see if they can become players.

One question I had was whether some of last year's draft picks will be able to step up and be more than special teamers. For example, does Lane actually have suspect hands or were his drops more a result of him running poor routes and not getting where he needed to be? A great punt returner is valuable, but if he can be a viable field stretcher and YAC guy that'd be even better. So yes, I want us to start hitting on more than special teamers but I also want the coaches to make them more than special teamers or give them more opportunties to prove what they are and what they can become.

So, Peters has to do better, but I suspect so do the coaches.

True. But even most of the guys you mention are just functional players. Hopefully more, but we don’t know yet. To build a true SB roster around our franchise QB, some of these picks have to ascend beyond functional starters. We’ll need some homegrown pro bowlers. An all pro or two. And *gasp* even eventually a HOFer to really cement things. Not necessarily going to happen, even for a successful franchise. So we can crank it back to reasonable expectations for pro bowlers and all pro’s. Eventually we have to knock a few picks out of the park if this operation is going to be the one to take us anywhere real.

And yes, we need more functional starters as well. Not every pick can hit, and ST’s contributors and glue guys are important. But we aren’t ever going to crest the mountain of greatness like we all want without unearthing some seriously talented prospects. Every good team is doing it on some level, and even some of the bad teams are (who are then held back by structural/organizational issues and QB talent issues—two excuses we are no longer burdened with).

 

[HailYeah]

How would you feel about trading back into the mid to late first round, or even the early second? I know our picks are already limited, but if they could make it happen without giving up too much it could be a great way to grab some talent.

I’m not totally against the idea, especially if we end up missing out on big FA targets. I’d feel pretty good if we could snag a pick like the Jets (16) or Browns (24) and come away with something like a DE/WR combo. The main concern is the cost for me. moving into the first could be pricey, but trading into the second might be a more realistic and manageable option.

 

[philibusters]

How would you feel about trading back into the mid to late first round, or even the early second? I know our picks are already limited, but if they could make it happen without giving up too much it could be a great way to grab some talent.

I’m not totally against the idea, especially if we end up missing out on big FA targets. I’d feel pretty good if we could snag a pick like the Jets (16) or Browns (24) and come away with something like a DE/WR combo. The main concern is the cost for me. moving into the first could be pricey, but trading into the second might be a more realistic and manageable option.

I feel like even trading into the second round is going to pricey. Like our 3rd, 6th, and next years 2nd rounder or something like that, which would maybe move us from pick 71 to 48 or something like that. Not worth it.

 

[burgold]

How would you feel about trading back into the mid to late first round, or even the early second? I know our picks are already limited, but if they could make it happen without giving up too much it could be a great way to grab some talent.

I’m not totally against the idea, especially if we end up missing out on big FA targets. I’d feel pretty good if we could snag a pick like the Jets (16) or Browns (24) and come away with something like a DE/WR combo. The main concern is the cost for me. moving into the first could be pricey, but trading into the second might be a more realistic and manageable option.

I think I'd only do it if someone highly valued Payne and we decided we were ultimately going to move on anyway. If say, someone wanted Payne and a fifth for a second, I'd probably snap that up.

 

[burgold]

How would you feel about trading back into the mid to late first round, or even the early second? I know our picks are already limited, but if they could make it happen without giving up too much it could be a great way to grab some talent.

I’m not totally against the idea, especially if we end up missing out on big FA targets. I’d feel pretty good if we could snag a pick like the Jets (16) or Browns (24) and come away with something like a DE/WR combo. The main concern is the cost for me. moving into the first could be pricey, but trading into the second might be a more realistic and manageable option.

OTOH, if this really is a weak draft, then this isn't the one to trade future assets away for.

 

[Conn]

How would you feel about trading back into the mid to late first round, or even the early second? I know our picks are already limited, but if they could make it happen without giving up too much it could be a great way to grab some talent.

I’m not totally against the idea, especially if we end up missing out on big FA targets. I’d feel pretty good if we could snag a pick like the Jets (16) or Browns (24) and come away with something like a DE/WR combo. The main concern is the cost for me. moving into the first could be pricey, but trading into the second might be a more realistic and manageable option.

Would be difficult to pull that off without trading our 2027 1st. I’m not on board for that because I don’t trust that we won’t be looking for a new coaching staff in a year. Especially given this is a weaker draft year.

I’m open to the idea of using our 3rd to move up into the 2nd, but I doubt we get too high without it being cost prohibitive.

 

[DWinzit]

Would be difficult to pull that off without trading our 2027 1st. I’m not on board for that because I don’t trust that we won’t be looking for a new coaching staff in a year. Especially given this is a weaker draft year.

I’m open to the idea of using our 3rd to move up into the 2nd, but I doubt we get too high without it being cost prohibitive.

The only real way to gain day 1 or 2 picks this year, without spending future assets or players is by trading back from 7. Depending on how things fall it could be possible but as you know, we can't count on receiving a decent offers. You are correct that this draft is not worth trading up for. There re however some players that will be in the later part of the first and second rounds that would be nice fits for our talent void roster

 

[Chris]

‘Talent Void’ is a pretty accurate description of the defense. I can’t name one player that I would be shocked or pissed to lose. Maybe Amos but that would be it.

 

[HailYeah]

The only real way to gain day 1 or 2 picks this year, without spending future assets or players is by trading back from 7. Depending on how things fall it could be possible but as you know, we can't count on receiving a decent offers. You are correct that this draft is not worth trading up for. There re however some players that will be in the later part of the first and second rounds that would be nice fits for our talent void roster

Great point. How would you feel about trading No. 7 to the Jets for No. 16? If the front office isn’t sold on anyone at 7 and sees the lack of picks as an issue, moving back could make sense. Without using a trade calculator, it feels like we’d likely land one of their second rounders (44) plus maybe a pick swap later on to balance it out.

 

[RWJ]

3/4's of FA and the draft should be on fixing the defense. 26.5 points against our D and 20.9 points for our O. 27th in the league on D and 22 in the league on O.

 

[DWinzit]

Great point. How would you feel about trading No. 7 to the Jets for No. 16? If the front office isn’t sold on anyone at 7 and sees the lack of picks as an issue, moving back could make sense. Without using a trade calculator, it feels like we’d likely land one of their second rounders (44) plus maybe a pick swap later on to balance it out.

My first thought is I would be hoping for an offer that doesn't take us that far from 7. You could always make other moves from there including possibly another trade back but I am not promoting that att this point. YOu could combine the gained pick(s) with existing ones to move up if so desired

 

[Riggo44]

‘Talent Void’ is a pretty accurate description of the defense. I can’t name one player that I would be shocked or pissed to lose. Maybe Amos but that would be it.

Armstrong. I'd still be pissed to lose Luvu. I'd be upset giving up on Sanristil and Newton so quickly.

 

[method man]

Armstrong. I'd still be pissed to lose Luvu. I'd be upset giving up on Sanristil and Newton so quickly.

Armstrong is coming off an ACL tear into the last year of his deal. I wouldn't be in favor of it but I wouldn't be particularly annoyed if they moved on from him. Same with Luvu if they decide he is not a scheme fit for whatever reason in this Daronte scheme. He is in the last year of his deal too and next year is his age 30 season

 

[method man]

Great point. How would you feel about trading No. 7 to the Jets for No. 16? If the front office isn’t sold on anyone at 7 and sees the lack of picks as an issue, moving back could make sense. Without using a trade calculator, it feels like we’d likely land one of their second rounders (44) plus maybe a pick swap later on to balance it out.

Where I'm landing is we should be walking away with one of the top 3 EDGEs or one of the top 3 WRs when this is all said and done given how hard it is to otherwise get a potential WR1 and an EDGE1 (these guys rarely hit FA).

I think if we go back to #16, that is a bit too far back and you would probably also miss out on some of the A+ prospects playing non premium positions too like Downs, Love and Styles.

This franchise has screwed itself in the past 25 years trading down and the missing out on premium guys who ended up going in their original draft slots.

I have two exceptions for a trade down this steep. Exception #1 is getting our hands on a future first round pick (which is highly unlikely) and exception #2 is getting a player who has flashed premium potential on a rookie deal back. A good signal for #2 is looking at teams that have recently fired their GMs as very few GMs admit to making mistakes with their picks.

I threw out the idea of trading back to the Vikings pick at #18 if we got back Dallas Turner. I may be wrong but reading the tea leaves that may have been a Kwesi pick vs a guy KOC or Flores truly wanted. He came on at the end of last year and had 6.5 sacks in the last 8 games of the season. If Adam, DQ and Daronte feel that he is about to takeoff and become a true EDGE1 then you get him on a rookie deal for 3 more years while still having control of a first round pick.

The kicker, to boot, is he played a good bit in the AVG role and he was asked to set the edge and drop into coverage.

 

[DWinzit]

The thing with Branch is I wonder if its too like Lane. Yes, I know Lane wasn't a take a screen and YAC player this season but that's who he was in college.

I get that, kind of a repetitive player.

Would that be similar to having Luke then drafted Lemon, who are both more slot players?