The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

[Primus Porcus]

I mean, there are certainly WR classes where the depth is excellent and you’re not taking developmental guys in the 3rd like that necessarily. The board doesn’t always fall in an advantageous way obviously, so you can’t bet on it. But for a high 3rd round pick I wouldn’t assume you’re stuck with a developmental guy, depending on the class

you put it perfectly.....

it's not the same pool of players in every draft, so you can't assume much based on the trends. There isn't a Tom Brady in every draft, so while you can't depend on finding a franchise QB on day 3, doesn't mean they're never going to be there. It all comes down to evaluation of specific players. We see skill players linger in the draft every year... the ones who understand the board and work it to where they get a premium player later in the draft, dont do it by blind luck.

 

[philibusters]

How would you guys compare Bailey to Abdul Carter?

I think they both have elite explosiveness and are the most explosive edge in their class. Carter may have a slight edge there but they are both very explosive. I see a bigger difference in their bend. Carter is noticeably bendy. Bailey has average bend. That said Bailey is a more polished pass rusher with more moves in the bags and more developed pass rush plan as Carter mostly played LB before his last season in college. They are also similar as run defenders, neither has the anchor to take on double team, and ideally both are more just edge setters orguys chasing the play from behind with the speed to cut off angles. I think Bailey is a slightly more disciplined run defender and Carter maybe has slightly more explosive hands in shedding blocks.

Carter's bend may give him a higher ceiling. There is a chance he could turn into a Von Miller with his combo of explosiveness and bend that Bailey doesn't have. But Bailey strikes me as a guy who could be as good in his year 1 as Carter was in his year 1 and he is probably more mature. Given Carter's lack of maturity I am not completely sold he hits that ceiling. We have experienced that with Chase Young before.

 

[burgold]

There's an advantage we have in having two rookie coordinators and a roster that needs major retooling.

You'd hope neither Blough nor Jones would be absolutely wed to a system. They are not schematically, institutionally locked into a set of guys who fit what they do. This means they have the luxury of inventing themselves by really tailoring what they do to the talent. So, if the best talent out there is a Bailey. He doesn't have to fit Jones' system because Jones doesn't have a system yet. He has ideas and schematics. He can take the best quality clay Peters can provide and make something that works.

I mean I get that the opposite is true, too. That Blough and Jones come in knowing who they think they want and what the ideal player to fit their system would look like, but there's a freedom in starting from scratch. I hope they are nimble enough of mind and playbook to take advantage of it.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Some early stats, am compiling at WR

 

[DWinzit]

I mean, there are certainly WR classes where the depth is excellent and you’re not taking developmental guys in the 3rd like that necessarily. The board doesn’t always fall in an advantageous way obviously, so you can’t bet on it. But for a high 3rd round pick I wouldn’t assume you’re stuck with a developmental guy, depending on the class

Agreed, but how many 3rd round picks are legit starters right away? Or even by the end of year one? Or..

 

[philibusters]

DaftonDraft has two clips with partial game scouting videos for Zachariah Branch and Skyler Bell which are two of the guys on SIP's list.

Branch strikes me as the best receiver in this class after the catch. He is elite for a prospect in that regard. His start stop ability is fantastic. Unfortuantely that is the only trait as a receiver that is a real plus. Everything else from route running, contested catch, vertical speed is average to below average. So you are really betting on one elite trait. He reminds me of Luther Burden but not even Burden was more well rounded.

Skyler Bell is way more well rounded. Lacks size but a good route runner, decent after the catch, but no really good traits. To me they are both tier 3 guys and different teams will have different flavor (though I suspect that the one with the elite trait--Branch gets drafted first).

 

[HTTR]

Some early stats, am compiling at WR

View attachment 14057

Thanks SIP!!
This is making me like Tate the most. Contested catch, great blocking. And zero drops (!). I know he has the advantage of playing on basically an all star team at OSU, but those stats in particular seem independent of it.

 

[HTTR]

By the way, I say this every year, but I can’t thank you guys enough for all the great information and insight. I’m way too lazy to do all this research myself. I know it’s a labor of love for most of you, but just know that it’s really appreciated!

 

[skinsinparadise]

Its an odd off season in some ways with 2 points converging IMO

A. Both FA and the draft are somewhat strong on their position of needs

B. Desperation to win now. I know some disagree with me about this but I feel strongly about this point.

So for me it feels a bit like cramming for a finals exam when you know you don't have time to cover the full text book so instead it's about how to you piece together enough of the most critical chapters to prepare

If you think about the politics of winning now.

A. I don't see Peters with both McCaffrey and Lane on the roster coupled with them supposedly high on Burks, bring in another mid round WR. They don't need a log jam of up and coming in theory WRs. But an obvious high end dude? I get the idea that a high end dude might slip to the early 3rd. Maybe but I am betting they don't go WR if they don't take one in the first round.

B. I feel the same way about RB, I don't think they take one if they don't take Love in the first.

C. to complement the points I just made, if I am a betting man, I'd say they go FA for WR and RB.

D. They IMO cannot afford to leave the draft to address edge. They sort of did it last year and it blew up in their face -- the board didn't quite fall their way, that narrative came out after the draft. No way I think they bet on that again.

E. They got to do TE in FA. It's part of the reason why I haven't dived too deep into TE in the draft. I doubt they do it in the draft for various reasons including mid round TE's rarely hit the ground running, Maybe Stowers or Klare in the early third but I'd bet against it.

F. CB is tricky. Do they like Sainristill inside or outside? They need to bring in another corner. Tough for me to see them leaving it to the draft but maybe.

G. Do they bring Wagner back? Do they like Magee to start?

So if they go Edge, WR, RB, TE and maybe CB in FA. That would leave the draft to be somewhat BPA. But if I was betting on some spots they'd likely draft another position after round 1 everything being equal because of FA as to: RB, TE, WR, OT.

Hardest for me to guess S, LB, RB, CB for different reasons.

If they don't bring back Wagner and don't sign one in FA, I'd guess they are betting on Magee and or they'd take one in the draft. LB and safety are stacked in this draft and because the positions aren't high premium, the odds are good there will be a good one in the early third.

 

[skinsinparadise]

Thanks SIP!!
This is making me like Tate the most. Contested catch, great blocking. And zero drops (!). I know he has the advantage of playing on basically an all star team at OSU, but those stats in particular seem independent of it.

Tate is a stud, I am a big fan of his. IMO because there a few players that can fall in the range of their pick with similar ability, Tate among them, I need to see FA play out first before I have strong feeling for what they will do.

I know some of the beat guys are absolutely convinced that they are going defense and nothing else is on the table. But lol, once FA happens and rumors start to leak, I'll feel better about guessing whether the beat writers gut on this are right or wrong.

 

[HTTR]

Yeah, I really hope they don’t limit themselves by just focusing on defense at 7. If lLove or Tate is the best player, go ahead and do it! Improvement is improvement, whether it’s offense or defense. Get the best player possible.

 

[skinsinparadise]

DaftonDraft has two clips with partial game scouting videos for Zachariah Branch and Skyler Bell which are two of the guys on SIP's list.

Branch strikes me as the best receiver in this class after the catch. He is elite for a prospect in that regard. His start stop ability is fantastic. Unfortuantely that is the only trait as a receiver that is a real plus. Everything else from route running, contested catch, vertical speed is average to below average. So you are really betting on one elite trait. He reminds me of Luther Burden but not even Burden was more well rounded.

Skyler Bell is way more well rounded. Lacks size but a good route runner, decent after the catch, but no really good traits. To me they are both tier 3 guys and different teams will have different flavor (though I suspect that the one with the elite trait--Branch gets drafted first).

The thing with Branch is I wonder if its too like Lane. Yes, I know Lane wasn't a take a screen and YAC player this season but that's who he was in college.

 

[DWinzit]

I'd be covered with Skyler Bell dealing with bigger competition especially the bigger faster more physical DB's.

It's hard not to see that both he and Branch are electric on the field.

 

[Commander Wraith]

Kind of crossing the streams here, but separating it into the 3 phases - initial FA, Draft, post-draft FA, by guess is Peters goes

Initial FA: Starting WR, DE, Corner, TE. Maybe a starting RB, LB or S. Depth DE, Corner, RB and LB (to compete with Medrano/Kaho if a starter wasn’t signed).

Draft: Who knows. One of the DEs/WRs, Love or Downs? Feel like they could go for almost any position after the 1st.

Post-draft FA (if position is not addressed in the draft): Corner, DE, maybe WR


Of course, there could be a big difference between what Peters wants to do and what he can do.

I think there’s a decent chance they (try to) bring back Igbinoghene and McNichols (as depth of course, not as starters). Iggy might be ready to move on though after reports we put him on the trade block last offseason.

DT is going to be interesting… lot’s of ways they could go, particularly as they have to figure out what to do about Payne.

 

[Dlts20]

So I don't hear a lot of people talking about corner. Is that off the table for you guys in the first round? I think that Amos will be a stud. Having another lock down guy opposite of him would be something major also

 

[Anselmheifer]

Tate is a stud, I am a big fan of his. IMO because there a few players that can fall in the range of their pick with similar ability, Tate among them, I need to see FA play out first before I have strong feeling for what they will do.

I know some of the beat guys are absolutely convinced that they are going defense and nothing else is on the table. But lol, once FA happens and rumors start to leak, I'll feel better about guessing whether the beat writers gut on this are right or wrong.

It feels like we have too much to fix this year. The defense obviously needs a major upgrade.

There is some part of me however that wants to see us go full Bears, and sign Likely, Wandale Robinson, and Breece Hall, and draft Tate. We would still have room to make additions on defense.

The biggest long term determinant of our success is still going to be how elite Jayden Daniels gets to be. And last year didn’t look as good as the year prior, even when Daniels was healthy.

 

[Conn]

There's an advantage we have in having two rookie coordinators and a roster that needs major retooling.

You'd hope neither Blough nor Jones would be absolutely wed to a system. They are not schematically, institutionally locked into a set of guys who fit what they do. This means they have the luxury of inventing themselves by really tailoring what they do to the talent. So, if the best talent out there is a Bailey. He doesn't have to fit Jones' system because Jones doesn't have a system yet. He has ideas and schematics. He can take the best quality clay Peters can provide and make something that works.

I mean I get that the opposite is true, too. That Blough and Jones come in knowing who they think they want and what the ideal player to fit their system would look like, but there's a freedom in starting from scratch. I hope they are nimble enough of mind and playbook to take advantage of it.

I mean, you’re not necessarily wrong, but this is definitely edging towards the blind optimism side of the spectrum. “Our guys have no track record of success (or of any kind), and basically don’t know shit, so they don’t have bad habits, so that should make them more likely to be flexible” — rephrased to make it humorous, I know this isn’t actually what you’re exactly saying of course. But it’s not totally NOT what you’re saying, either.

Guys with no playcalling habits, true, don’t have bad habits yet…but they may develop them, as they don’t have positive habits either! Or in this case, rather than habits, schematic philosophies and personnel preferences, etc.

As you mentioned, the experience they DO have still informs them, though. So I don’t necessarily even agree with the hopefulness of the premise. They could easily still have assumptions, preferences, and preconceptions that prevent them from being fully flexible and utilizing whatever personnel they’re given, just like an experienced set-in-his-ways guy could. The lack of experience they have could mean the gaps in their knowledge prevent them from taking full advantage of whatever flexibility they may theoretically have. Hopefully they are creative, flexible-minded guys. That would be great. But their lack of “bad experience” definitely doesn’t guarantee it.

 

[DWinzit]

It feels like we have too much to fix this year. The defense obviously needs a major upgrade.

There is some part of me however that wants to see us go full Bears, and sign Likely, Wandale Robinson, and Breece Hall, and draft Tate. We would still have room to make additions on defense.

The biggest long term determinant of our success is still going to be how elite Jayden Daniels gets to be. And last year didn’t look as good as the year prior, even when Daniels was healthy.

Hitting the offense like that would be great but would we be able to stop even an anemic offense?

Those 3 FA's would answer a ton on offense but the top pick would need to go D. If not at least a trade down to allow more picks and the rest of the draft and other cap space go to D

 

[Conn]

Agreed, but how many 3rd round picks are legit starters right away? Or even by the end of year one? Or..

Certainly not a majority, for sure. But the early 3rd round is still a premium enough pick that I’m not resigned to any weapon we draft there having to be a ST’s standout to make an impact as a rookie. RB’s and WR’s drafted there can often contribute very early, especially if they bring explosiveness to the table. There are guys every year. We just have to draft and develop them.

I’m not even arguing these are high percentage picks. I’m simply saying that if we can’t hit on some of the low percentage guys (hit as in, steal a stud once in a while, not just get a replacement level player), some of the time, we aren’t going to build anything and AP won’t turn out to be the guy. And the early 3rd round is still early enough to draft impact players every year across the league, even if the overall hit rate is still low.

 

[DWinzit]

Certainly not a majority, for sure. But the early 3rd round is still a premium enough pick that I’m not resigned to any weapon we draft there having to be a ST’s standout to make an impact as a rookie. RB’s and WR’s drafted there can often contribute very early, especially if they bring explosiveness to the table. There are guys every year. We just have to draft and develop them.

I’m not even arguing these are high percentage picks. I’m simply saying that if we can’t hit on some of the low percentage guys (hit as in, steal a stud once in a while, not just get a replacement level player), some of the time, we aren’t going to build anything and AP won’t turn out to be the guy. And the early 3rd round is still early enough to draft impact players every year across the league, even if the overall hit rate is still low.

I think its just more that for me, we have so many needs I'd rather the 3rd rounder go to the defensive side. We already have a bunch of decent young WR3-5 that are good STs. We have gaps in the new schemed D all over the starting and backups.

We are so limited with just a 1st and 3rd early in the draft we shouldn't be taking a repetitive position to what we already possess