The 2026 Draft Thread - 1st Round - 7th overall

Conn said:
Let’s talk worst case scenarios, because we’re masochists

Let’s say these guys are all gone: Love, Bailey, Bain, Reese, Downs, and the #1 WR (whoever you think that is in that area between Tate, Tyson, Lemon).

What do we do? Depending on how things shake out in the pre-draft process, always a chance the #2 or #3 WR are worthy of that slot, I guess. But also very possible they aren’t.

Let’s also assume we get Tunsil signed, because if we don’t we’ve already flunked the offseason and will be counting down the days till AP is fired anyways. So let’s assume we don’t fumble that.

So what do we do? Again assuming we don’t love a WR there. OL would be batshit. Too early for Styles, really. Top corner?
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I'd be looking to trade down first and foremost. If that doesn't happen, I'm taking a WR if I think any of them have a very good chance of at least hitting the borderline WR1/high end WR2 threshold. Alex Pierce is going to show us just how much that type of player is worth with the $25M+ AAV he gets this offseason and he doesn't sniff WR1 at all.

Given Terry's age and contract for that age + how hard it is to get this type of receiver without it involving 1st or 2nd round draft capital either via trade or picking a player, it is high priority and not a luxury pick even if they add someone like Aiyuk or Pierce.

I know a lot of people here love Downs, Styles and Love but
1) You have comparable players in FA at S (Curl), Styles (Devin Lloyd) and Love (Hall)
2) These guys need to become All Pros to justify #7 overall pick value. If any of the receivers becomes even Devonta Smith or Waddle in terms of tier of receiver, you've hit
3) No safeties and 1 off ball LB (Simmons) have been decade in the top 10 this decade. Simmons was taken there because he was seen as a Swiss Army knife player more than a pure off ball LB
 
I think there are some great options in FA and you named three of them. And I agree, if we can get them it means we don’t need to double down, especially in those positions.

I think Downs has a much higher ceiling than Curl. But Curl is solid.

Love has a higher ceiling than Hall, but it’s close enough that getting Hall changes us from RB players to being set at RB.

Lloyd is better than Styles at the moment - but Styles is a little developmental. But getting Lloyd would definitely mean we don’t need a first round ILB (we likely don’t anyways).

Receiver and edge need to be on the table. And if we can’t get Tunsil sorted we may need to be looking at LT.

Wow, what a fumble that would be.

Anyways, I agree.

Here’s the issue with this premise: it’s assuming we can/do land Hall, Curl and Lloyd. I’d argue that it’s possible we land one of the three. After that? I’d be thrilled if we got two.

Pace is a RFA but if he hits FA I’d love him.

It’s hard for any of us to really pinpoint a position in the draft at the moment. We really do need to see how the offseason plays out.
 
KDawg said:
I think there are some great options in FA and you named three of them. And I agree, if we can get them it means we don’t need to double down, especially in those positions.

I think Downs has a much higher ceiling than Curl. But Curl is solid.

Love has a higher ceiling than Hall, but it’s close enough that getting Hall changes us from RB players to being set at RB.

Lloyd is better than Styles at the moment - but Styles is a little developmental. But getting Lloyd would definitely mean we don’t need a first round ILB (we likely don’t anyways).

Receiver and edge need to be on the table. And if we can’t get Tunsil sorted we may need to be looking at LT.

Wow, what a fumble that would be.

Anyways, I agree.

Here’s the issue with this premise: it’s assuming we can/do land Hall, Curl and Lloyd. I’d argue that it’s possible we land one of the three. After that? I’d be thrilled if we got two.

Pace is a RFA but if he hits FA I’d love him.

It’s hard for any of us to really pinpoint a position in the draft at the moment. We really do need to see how the offseason plays out.
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Fair. I actually doubt Lloyd hits FA and I'm not sure Hall does either (Jets will have to franchise him though because he doesn't seem excited about being there). That being said, even in that scenario, there are still other guys that would get me excited at LB (Williams, Elliss, Walker, Bush, Wilson) & RB (Walker, Etienne, Dowdle, Dobbins)
 
I like rangy safeties who can hit but I am not using the #7 pick for a player that fills a dependent position on defense.

Pass rushers and cover corners stir the drink on defense in the league and tend to drive play.

Rare guys like Taylor or Ed Reed do that from the safety position but that is very rare.
 
Bulldog said:
I like rangy safeties who can hit but I am not using the #7 pick for a player that fills a dependent position on defense.

Pass rushers and cover corners stir the drink on defense in the league and tend to drive play.

Rare guys like Taylor or Ed Reed do that from the safety position but that is very rare.
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I agree on the versatile box safeties. Truly elite post safeties who can also tackle are hard to find and can be worth that top 10 pick.
 
Yesterdays Senior Bowl didn't live up to expectations, especially on the defensive side and the passing game which was hampered some by cold weather and up to 40mph winds. Many of the top names that were at the practices did not play in the game. Here were a few of the players I thought showed well

QB - Garrettt Nussmeier
RB - Kaelon Black, Jaydon Ott
WR - Malachi Fields, Donacven McCauley
C - Jake Slaughter,
G/T - Keylon Rutledge, Max Iheanachor,
Edge - Quintayvious Hutchins, Zion Young, Nadame Tucker, Quintayvious Hutchins, Vincent Anthony,
LB - Bryice Boettcher, Kaleb Elarms-Orr
DB - Ephesians Prysock
 
Starting at pick number 10,Mel has 4 of the next 6 being corners and another one 5 picks later. Still, I disagree with those who don't think that a safety like Downs can impact the game like a corner or DE. He looks special. The safety is the QB of the secondary and our DC was just coaching the Secondary.

Either way, we have to get this right because a few of these guys should be studs. It sucks not having a 2nd rounder this year but Tunsil was great. I think the mocks will change a ton this year because people like a lot of these guys for different reasons.

Everyone on here should post their top 5 picks for us right now. It's pretty much a sure thing that Mendoza and at least one OT will be gone so if you have 5 guys you like, we are guaranteed to get one. Post your top 5 for the Commanders. Again, that might not be the best 5 guys but best 5 for our needs right now. Who ya got?
 
1. David Bailey
2. Arvell Reese - Van Ginkel type chess piece with big time upside.
3. Caleb Downs - Highest floor for me. But if he is just a good Safety at #7?
4. Jeremiyah Love - Biggest impact potential. Supports Jayden our biggest asset. FA dependent pick.
5. Carnell Tate - I dont want to be chasing WR every offseason. Edges out Tyson due to injury.
 
0rder 0f 0ut said:
1. David Bailey
2. Arvell Reese - Van Ginkel type chess piece with big time upside.
3. Caleb Downs - Highest floor for me. But if he is just a good Safety at #7?
4. Jeremiyah Love - Biggest impact potential. Supports Jayden our biggest asset. FA dependent pick.
5. Carnell Tate - I dont want to be chasing WR every offseason. Edges out Tyson due to injury.
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Good list. It just shows how crazy this draft is with different opinions. Some think that Bain will be the best defensive player in the draft. I expect our own board to vary a lot but I feel like it's good to do one right now to see how we all feel before Free Agency which will no doubt change things a lot.

Your Tate choice is interesting and we really need to start thinking hard about WR strictly due to the financial market. This is by far one of the highest paid positions now so you almost rather get a stud on a rookie contract.
 
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0rder 0f 0ut said:
1. David Bailey
2. Arvell Reese - Van Ginkel type chess piece with big time upside.
3. Caleb Downs - Highest floor for me. But if he is just a good Safety at #7?
4. Jeremiyah Love - Biggest impact potential. Supports Jayden our biggest asset. FA dependent pick.
5. Carnell Tate - I dont want to be chasing WR every offseason. Edges out Tyson due to injury.
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What’s interesting is that, besides the tackles for obvious reasons, Reese has gotten talked about the least in the last month more than any other top 10 prospect. I’d venture to guess he is the guy the folks on this thread least want.

While the ceiling is super high, I also think he has the lowest floor
 
Seems to change every day for me, but right now…
1. Downs
2. Bailey
3. Reese
4. Bain
5. Love
Obviously, we have to look at receivers too, but there doesn’t seem to be a consensus as to which one is best. And none of them feel like super special to me. So I really hope the receiver position is solidified in FA. It’s a shame the defense is so broken, because otherwise Love would be a lot higher on my list.
 
method man said:
What’s interesting is that, besides the tackles for obvious reasons, Reese has gotten talked about the least in the last month more than any other top 10 prospect. I’d venture to guess he is the guy the folks on this thread least want.

While the ceiling is super high, I also think he has the lowest floor
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Definitely, but I think Reese became a much better fit for us after the DC hire and many of us are starting to warm up to him now because of it
 
Just watched some Caleb Banks highlights, couldn't find yet any UF games for their defense. But for a big dude, wow can that dude move. What got my attention is Matt Miller comparing him to Vita Vea but with greater length. I'd kill for that,


 
Banks did well for himself at the Senior Bowl. He proved he was back from injury and strong. He may even become the #1DT/NT in the draft. At the same time I am noticing Woods dropping on most mocks
 
I want to love Tate due to the archetype he fills that we need so badly. I want to really like Tyson while acknowledging his injury concerns.

But I really can’t justify putting either over Lemon the more I see. I think valuing Tate over him, for me, would mean that I’m letting what I perceive our needs to be influence my opinion too much. Because Lemon is a better football player. And I’m starting to doubt that it’s really close, after fighting through my “big strong outside WR” bias I’ve had the last couple months.
 
Conn said:
I want to love Tate due to the archetype he fills that we need so badly. I want to really like Tyson while acknowledging his injury concerns.

But I really can’t justify putting either over Lemon the more I see. I think valuing Tate over him, for me, would mean that I’m letting what I perceive our needs to be influence my opinion too much. Because Lemon is a better football player. And I’m starting to doubt that it’s really close, after fighting through my “big strong outside WR” bias I’ve had the last couple months.
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I like all three for different reasons. But Lemon to me is the highest floor of the three. He's a baller and it's impossible to miss while watching him. Among those three he's certaintly the best YAC guy and comes off as the most intense. The combine should be fascinating for all three, and I think it likely moves the needle as to seperating them
 
Conn said:
I want to love Tate due to the archetype he fills that we need so badly. I want to really like Tyson while acknowledging his injury concerns.

But I really can’t justify putting either over Lemon the more I see. I think valuing Tate over him, for me, would mean that I’m letting what I perceive our needs to be influence my opinion too much. Because Lemon is a better football player. And I’m starting to doubt that it’s really close, after fighting through my “big strong outside WR” bias I’ve had the last couple months.
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I actually think Tyson is a better compliment for Terry McLaurin than Tate. To me Tate is X WR who is a good deep threat, solid zone feel, and good contested catch guy. I think Terry is actually a good comp for him. Tyson is more of a route runner who can seperate well against man coverage. Terry is an okay seperater but its not his speciality and I don't think that will be Tate's speciality either. I think pairing Tyson separation ability against man with Terry is the best compliment
 
I agree, I like the abilities Tyson brings over the others and see him matching well with Terry and company
 
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