The 2025 Free Agency Thread

Boone said:
I said I didn’t feel his comments were all that ‘whiny’ but I don’t think he should have made them. If Dan Snyder is the owner maybe the ‘the team owes me and should show the respect I deserve by paying me what I think I deserve’ line of attack works.

I think TM is wasting his time using it with Peter’s and company. They don’t care about any of what he is putting out there. They don’t care how fans feel about what they ultimately do with McLaurin. For them, it is a relatively straightforward calculation - what are his future contributions going to be, for how long, and what is the value of that to the org. If that doesn’t line up fairly closely to what McLaurin will accept there won’t be a deal and he’ll either get traded or they will let him play out his final year and enter free agency or they will franchise him.

He is badly misreading the room. But I still wouldn’t characterize his comments as ‘whiny’.
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Fair enough. To me it came off whiny when it delved into if the team doesn't want him, he could take it, just man up and let him know. I found part of that quote whiny, I'll see if I can find the rest of it. I think that was maybe in his 106.7 interview.
 
I may not have heard every word h has uttered this week, maybe that’s it? The one thing I did hear that made me cringe was when he referred to the lack of an adequate offer as ‘disrespect’. I doubt many fans believe the team has a lack of respect for McLaurin. It doesn’t ring true.
 
Boone said:
I may not have heard every word h has uttered this week, maybe that’s it? The one thing I did hear that made me cringe was when he referred to the lack of an adequate offer as ‘disrespect’. I doubt many fans believe the team has a lack of respect for McLaurin. It doesn’t ring true.
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Yeah lol maybe I heard too much of Terry. He just expounded too much for me. He IMO should have kept it brief. But hearing him in different ways talk about being disrespected and not appreciated and then referencing if the team wants to move on or doesn't respect him, just man up and let him know. It was just way too much IMO.

I just have in the back of my mind as I mentioned that his agent wasn't easy to deal with in the last deal. And negotiations aren't just how one side of it sees things and if the other doesn't see it the same way -- then its pure disrespect.

It feels like its possible what's weighing on the negotiation is the weight of Terry's agent who from what I heard isn't one of the premier agent and Terry feeling that he's as good as any WR or just about but isn't giving that type of respect.
 
The part that bothered me was him saying how the team is not communicating. I mean what is there to say right now? Should AP call him every day and say the offer still stands? Let’s face it, this agent wants to make a name for himself and he won’t sign anything anyway until a holdout is imminent if not already happening. That will be his max leverage point and to me that’s when AP should step up his offer if he plans to. Give him your best offer and if it’s not good enough oh well he’ll have to play this year for a measly 18 mil or whatever it is.
 
I can't imagine another team paying him 33+ over 4 or 5 years. I think we would be the ones that would pay him slightly more than any other team because he has been a big part of this organization. But that home team extra can only be so much before it's not feasible to the team. His way of thinking indicates he would go somewhere to be the WR1 and command salary as such, however that window (finding a team needing a WR1 and willing to pay) will be difficult, especially this close to the season, those teams WR1 plans were made by their existing WRs or during FA and the draft.
 
Boone said:
He has no leverage. The team doesn’t have to move him. He’s under contract and the team can franchise him the year after if they want him here. They have absolute control if they want to play hardball.
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...and he most assurdly will not be getting top dollar when he is 2 years older than he is now.
 
I think it’s quite possible their plan is to hold him to his contract in 2025, franchise him in 2026, and let him hit free agency in 2027. That may be the smartest thing to do if he wants way more for a new contract than they feel he is worth.
 
Boone said:
I think it’s quite possible their plan is to hold him to his contract in 2025, franchise him in 2026, and let him hit free agency in 2027. That may be the smartest thing to do if he wants way more for a new contract than they feel he is worth.
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I think it's pretty obvious that is the fall back, because he can't actually sit out a year at 30 years old and make us pay for it because it hurts his chances of another deal after that. What is the happy medium between what the team sees as the fall back (1 year at his current deal, then 1 year on the franchise tag) versus the contract terms they are asking for (probably in the DK Metcalf range)?
 
Boone said:
I think it’s quite possible their plan is to hold him to his contract in 2025, franchise him in 2026, and let him hit free agency in 2027. That may be the smartest thing to do if he wants way more for a new contract than they feel he is worth.
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I mean, that's the risk he takes if he doesn't sign an extension now. I'd even prefer making him play out the year and then franchising him, trading him, and drafting his replacement.
 
I was listening to Grant-Danny. Grant said he saw that Von Miller according to Next Generation Stats, had the fastest get off of any pass rusher last year.

The more I digest this at a minimum I think Von will offset the loss of Fowler.

The thing about Fowler is he really slowed down in the 2nd half of the season. 2 sacks in his last 10 games.

Von is at his best in the post season. He's not hot against the run but is likely better against the run compared to Fowler.

Donte Fowler was ranked 91 in pass rush grade from PFF. Von was #10.

So i think its not hard to argue he will be an upgrade over Fowler.

Also the dude that realy came on towards the end of the season including the playoffs was Armstrong.

I am feeling better about the pass rush now versus before this signing.
 
bifflog said:
I think it's pretty obvious that is the fall back, because he can't actually sit out a year at 30 years old and make us pay for it because it hurts his chances of another deal after that. What is the happy medium between what the team sees as the fall back (1 year at his current deal, then 1 year on the franchise tag) versus the contract terms they are asking for (probably in the DK Metcalf range)?
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Yeah. I guess the distinction I’m making is not that it’s the fall back, but that it may be the primary plan and that they feel short of TM giving them a hometown discount (not likely) it makes the most sense.
 
Boone said:
Yeah. I guess the distinction I’m making is not that it’s the fall back, but that it may be the primary plan and that they feel short of TM giving them a hometown discount (not likely) it makes the most sense.
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Could be, but I would strive not to go this way if there was any path that led to a new deal that didn't end with a sizeable cap hit for Terry on this new deal for the first year of Jayden's second contract (2027?).
 
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Boone said:
I think it’s quite possible their plan is to hold him to his contract in 2025, franchise him in 2026, and let him hit free agency in 2027. That may be the smartest thing to do if he wants way more for a new contract than they feel he is worth.
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Projected Franchise Tag in 2026 is $28 million. It's been rising steadily in the past 2 years while remaining flat for years prior. There's a chance it rises even further than that too as more guys sign extensions between now and February. Such as Garrett Wilson signing for $32.5 million a year (I believe he took less per year for a much higher guaranteed number).

New signings in rumored ballpark he wants
Metcalf - 28yo, $33m apy, $80m guaranteed (4 year deal)
Garrett Wilson - 25yo, $32.5m apy, $90m guaranteed (4 year deal)
AJ Brown - 28yo, $30.66m apy, guaranteed money is awkward as it's an extension and wraps up prior money. It's somewhere between $47 and $51m guaranteed, but totals $84m wrapping in his prior contract.

I think it's pretty clear after Wilson signed that McLaurin isn't getting that much. Age factors into it as he's 30yo here versus Wilson's 25 or the others 28.

Less guaranteed than the top group as they are only the #2 offensive option
Tee Higgins - 26yo, $28.75m apy, $40.9m guaranteed (4 year deal)
Brandon Aiyuk - 27yo, $30m apy, $45m guaranteed (4 year deal) [signed last season]

While Terry is the #1 option, you'd have to assume that if Terry gets similar potential money, his guarantees would be capped at those levels or probably even less due to age.

Age comparators and also #2 offensive option
Chris Godwin - 29yo, $22m apy, $44m guaranteed (3 year deal)
Davante Adams - 33yo, $22m apy, $26m guaranteed (2 year deal)
In 2024, Calvin Ridley, 30yo, $23m apy, $50m guaranteed (4 year deal) [signed last season]

Godwin said he took a big paycut to stay in Tampa as his wife/family did not want to relocate, he wants to retire there. The guarantees are high here given length, injury history, etc because the apy is so low.

What is a reasonable expectation? Best guess are two options on a 3 year deal.
  • $30-31m apy, $30m guaranteed
  • or...
  • $26-27m apy, $45m guaranteed
He's going to get a good raise, as he has enough arguments in his favor.
  • Franchise tag puts a guarantee floor at $28m. Also means Salary can't be too much lower than that.
  • He is the #1 option, so he is a Franchise Tag candidate, and he'll get more than Godwin/Adams/etc and has a real argument to get more than younger #2 options.
 
skinsinparadise said:
Clowney absolutely is a different type of player, super against the run, good albiet not great pass rusher. Clowney IMO is a rich man's version of D. Wise. D. Wise is solid. But IMO Clowney is both a better run stopper and pass rusher than him. I agree I doubt they sign Clowney now. But before Clowney hit the market, Von Miller was my guy, so i am happy with this move.

I watched a little Von Miller before weighing in hard on his behalf months back. My sell for him is beyond his pressure rate being high. He still looks like a dude who has quick get off, good bend and an array of pass rushing moves. There have been a series of good pass rushers in their mid 30s, still. It's not like WR where players are done at that age. And Von now is 2 years away from his ACL injury. It often takes 2 seasons for players to feel right. And he's been so good in the post season.

As for Terry, a reporter speculated that the length of the contract is a sore spot in the negotiation. But I don't know. I want them to get a deal done. Still love Terry but Terry's comments about disrespect has put me off a little. Plus I keep hearing that Terry's agent is somewhat of an amateur and that's part of the problem.
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Elvis Dumervil is a guy who relied on bend and quicks and his game aged very well despite his smaller size
 
This is a move I support for many reasons, but two of them that haven’t been brought up yet in this thread:

1. This team doesn’t rest on its laurels at any position. We made changes on the DL, signed some new EDGE guys and even overpaid Kinlaw to allegedly play early down EDGE. But like us here on the interwebs, Peters didn’t think he’d done enough and patiently waited to bring in Miller for that added kick to the pass rushing rotation. It’s just a relief to have people in charge who seem rational and explore options that are obviously viable and intelligent from a fan perspective. That’s new for me.

2. Von is a playmaker. He will play limited rotational snaps in high leverage situations, sure. He won’t be an every down guy, he won’t likely compile double digit sacks (but another year removed from his ACL and playing pressing teams with a lead? I won’t rule it out). But he WILL wrap up Jalen Hurts in the playoffs if he’s got him in his grasp. He will make the play if he’s healthy enough to be on the field in a big moment. After decades of rooting for guys who shrink in big moments, I love adding guys like this who don’t choke, even as role players. He relishes the spotlight and finds that extra gear.
 
Conn said:
This is a move I support for many reasons, but two of them that haven’t been brought up yet in this thread:

1. This team doesn’t rest on its laurels at any position. We made changes on the DL, signed some new EDGE guys and even overpaid Kinlaw to allegedly play early down EDGE. But like us here on the interwebs, Peters didn’t think he’d done enough and patiently waited to bring in Miller for that added kick to the pass rushing rotation. It’s just a relief to have people in charge who seem rational and explore options that are obviously viable and intelligent from a fan perspective. That’s new for me.

2. Von is a playmaker. He will play limited rotational snaps in high leverage situations, sure. He won’t be an every down guy, he won’t likely compile double digit sacks (but another year removed from his ACL and playing pressing teams with a lead? I won’t rule it out). But he WILL wrap up Jalen Hurts in the playoffs if he’s got him in his grasp. He will make the play if he’s healthy enough to be on the field in a big moment. After decades of rooting for guys who shrink in big moments, I love adding guys like this who don’t choke, even as role players. He relishes the spotlight and finds that extra gear.
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Agree. When I was arguing for Von Miller weeks back over the more popular with some Z. Smith, a big part of it for me was Von plays his best in big games and in the post season. Considering this is hopefully our new world, we need players who step up in those moments.

As good as this offense was in "winning time moments" last year, the defense was almost equally bad in those winning time moments. It's part of the reason why i am not sold yet on Joe Whitt. But aside from that, we want defensive players who step up late in critical games.

And agree Peters continuing to seek to improve the roster is unique for this franchise as to the last few decades. Especially Bruce and Ron were willing to let things ride even when they had ready opportunities to improve the roster.

I wish they did more to rebuild the defense. But you can't rebuild Rome in a day. And the O line for me is always the key spot aside from QB -- and Peters at least on paper rebuilt that O line remarkably fast.
 
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So if they let his contract play out and franchise him, that’s roughly a cost of $46 million, presumably while we draft his replacement. Compare that $46 million (and 3 years of a rookie WR salary) to a supposed 3 year contract extension at a cost of 30 million per which would be roughly $108 million total (and it may take more than that to get him to sign a deal).

We can say the salary cap will continue to grow but that is a big disparity given McLaurin’s age.

Now - there’s no guarantee we can be sure we find Terry’s replacement in the next 2 drafts. But if you are confident in your ability to draft, you could see how this might be the more appealing plan.
 
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