The 2025 Free Agency Thread



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Riley Dixon is currently the last CFA (with a 3mill contract). If one of Goldman, Wise, Martin, Herbig are over 3 mill, I think the 6th will be canceled. (Depending on other signings across the league).
 
What age was McCaffrey when he went to the 49ers?

What age will Kupp be next season?

You can not equate the two and say Kupp could suddenly get less injury prone.
Mccaffrey was the highest paid RB at the time at a position known for much more injuries/ wear and tear. Kupp is making the equivalent of a fringe 2/3 wr. Kupp's performance on the field is still at a high level. His injury risk is the reason he is making 15 mil a year and not 25mil. While his re-injury risk is higher.. smart coaches can limit his injury risk with proper use/ game planning.
Think of it this way.. if Justin Jefferson came to you and said that I will play for your team but only for 12 games a season and I'll do it for 20mil a year... will you take that deal? (you'd be stupid not to)
 
Remaining Edge players of note (%s are a % of pass rush snaps):

Von Miller - 6'3" 250lbs - 36 years old - 209 pass rush snaps (only like 60 run D snaps) - 6 sacks (2.8%) - 23 hurries (11%) - 3 hits (1.4%) - 32 pressures (15.3%)
Za'Darius Smith - 6'4" 275 lbs - 32 y/o - 421 pass rush snaps (178 run defense snaps) - 10 sacks (2.3%) - 46 hurries (10.9%) - 7 hits (1.6%) - 63 pressures (14.9%)
Azeez Ojulari - 6'3" 240 lbs - 24 y/o - 196 pass rush snaps (189 run defense snaps) - 7 sacks (3.5%) - 12 hurries (6.1%) - 3 hits (1.5%) - 22 pressures (11.2%)
Matthew Judon - 6'3" 270 lbs - 32 y/o - 328 pass rush snaps (240 run defense snaps) - 6 sacks (1.8%) - 16 hurries (4.8%) - 3 hits (0.9%) - 25 pressures (7.6%)
Dennis Gardeck - 6'0" 232 lbs - 30 y/o - 96 pass rush snaps (81 run defense snaps) - 3 sacks (3.1%) - 7 hurries (7.2%) - 2 hits (2.0%) - 12 pressures (12.5%)
Preston Smith - 6'5" 265 lbs - 32 y/o - 261 pass rush snaps (182 run defense snaps) - 5 sacks (1.9%) - 12 hurries (4.5%) - 1 hits (0.3%) - 18 pressures (6.8%)
Charles Omenihu - 6'5" 280 lbs - 27 y/o - 154 pass rush snaps (67 run defense snaps) - 1 sack (0.6%) - 10 hurries (6.4%) - 1 hit (0.6%) - 12 pressures (7.7%)
Brandon Graham - 6'2" 265 lbs - 36 y/o - 169 pass rush snaps (127 run defense snaps) - 4 sacks (2.3%) - 13 hurries (7.6%) - 3 hits (1.7%) - 20 pressures (11.8%)
Carl Lawson - 6'2" 265 lbs - 29 y/o - 292 pass rush snaps (97 run defense snaps) - 6 sacks (2.0%) - 15 hurries (5.1%) - 6 hits (2.0%) - 27 pressures (9.2%)
Emmanuel Ogbah - 6'4" 278 lbs - 31 y/o - 414 pass rush snaps (265 run defense snaps) - 6 sacks (1.4%)- 22 hurries (5.3%) - 5 hits (1.2%) - 33 pressures (7.9%)

For reference:
Dante Fowler Jr. - 6'3" 261 lbs - 30 y/o - 341 pass rush snaps (199 run defense snaps) - 11 sacks (3.2%) - 29 hurries (8.5%) - 4 hits (1.1%) - 44 pressures (12.9%)
Trey Hendrickson - 6'4" 270 lbs - 30 y/o - 514 pass rush snaps (273 run defense snaps) - 18 sacks (3.5%) - 49 hurries (9.5%) - 16 hits (3.1%) - 83 hurries (16.1%)

Miller still good but very limited snap count.
Z. Smith probably best of what's left, above 2% on sacks, above 10% on hurries, above 10% on pressures, and done over 421 pass rush snaps with around 600 total snaps, so he can stay on the field a decent amount.
Not sure if Ojulari is on the upswing or if he's just gonna max out as an okay player, his sack/hit/pressure %s are good but only 196 pass rush snaps in year 4 is a bit weird.

Judon seems kinda over the hill. Below the ideal thresholds across the board.
Gardeck would be interesting if he was 24/25 coming from a dysfunctional team but at 30 it suggests deeper issue that he didn't even play 200 snaps.
Smith also seems a bit below ideal thresholds.
Omenihu below thresholds
Graham old but meets some thresholds still but very much on a snap count in his golden years.
Carl Lawson isn't quite at the level I think we'd need to put a floor under us for pass rushing
Ogbah below thresholds.

I think in terms of putting the necessary floor under our pass rush, it's probably either Miller, ZSmith, or Ojulari if we think he's on the upswing and that the Giants are just incompetent morons (they are but unsure if that means Ojulari is good).
 
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Riley Dixon is currently the last CFA (with a 3mill contract). If one of Goldman, Wise, Martin, Herbig are over 3 mill, I think the 6th will be canceled. (Depending on other signings across the league).
Yep. That's why I was hoping the 6th round comp pick would stick. I don't understand the over/under of compensation when it gets down to the nitty gritty.
 
Yep. That's why I was hoping the 6th round comp pick would stick. I don't understand the over/under of compensation when it gets down to the nitty gritty.

If you're bored, this covers a bunch of rationale. However, outside of some basics, i also don't bother and just wait for overthecap to update their tracker.

Screenshot_20250315_143002_Chrome.jpg
 
So looking at that list, Goldman likely gets a lower score based on snap % and/or had some unlikely to get contract modifiers. Or otc doesn't know the details and still might change things... idk.
 
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Yeah am guessing but don't know they might be ahead now in comp picks. And guys like Zadarus Smith, Von Miller were released so won't cost draft picks.


The point I was coming to make... To keep in mind that released players will not count toward compensatory pick consideration. Two equal players, that factor could become a tie breaker.
 

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