The 2025 Free Agency Thread

DogofWar1 said:
Man I hope we land one of Miller or Smith. I do not like where our Edge stands insofar as pass rush is concerned. None of our currently signed dudes is even close to a 10% pressure rate.

I don't lament letting Fowler walk too much (he wasn't at a 10% rate either), but we need a dude who can exert at least a little pressure. Fowler was probably a net negative bc if I was an OC and saw him out there, I'd tell the QB to audible into a run in his direction and let the OT push him 5 yards back, so no real harm or foul that he's gone.

If we don't get a real pass rusher, we are lacking a floor insofar as edge pass rusher is concerned, and basically our defense is gonna be hopeless in terms of getting pressure with just 4. We'll need to bring 5/6 to get pressure, and I doubt the secondary is ready to deliver coverage sacks non-stop.

If we go into the draft without that floor then we're really pushed towards drafting an edge at 29 and that'll warp out opportunity to go BPA and add the best talent. Now it's VERY possible the BPA is an edge, like if Mike Green is there as the Edge5, then awesome, but if he's gone, and we're onto to Donovan E. or Nick Scourton, it starts to get a little interesting because it's very possible someone higher ranked falls down to 29. Like if Egbuka or Loveland or Simmons make it to 29, are those 2 better as a player than those 3?

And I don't really trust the top 12 to make it to 61. One or more of them very well could, but if the top 5 are gone by 29, we're really only one run on the position away from the next 7 probably not making it to 61.

Miller's a little old and on a snap count, but 32 pressures in only 279 snaps is pretty good. Smith seems like he can still take more snaps, 63 pressures in 615 snaps in '24 would be something huge to add if he could maintain that in '25.
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Ojulari is the other guy out there but his pressure rate is low for a supposed pass rush specialist.

I know he can’t defend the run well but Zadarius Smith feels like the obvious choice to me. Give him 600 snaps and he is a good bet for 10 sacks and a lot of pressures.
 
Surprisingly the DL as currently manned is not much bigger than last seasons. I thought that it was.

Last year’s main 10 averaged 6’3 and 286 (helped by Carl Davis at 6’5 332). This year’s current 9? averages 6’3 and 290 lbs.
 
Chris said:
Surprisingly the DL as currently manned is not much bigger than last seasons. I thought that it was.

Last year’s main 10 averaged 6’3 and 286 (helped by Carl Davis at 6’5 332. This year’s current 9? averages 6’3 and 290 lbs.
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I think this is where numbers can be deceiving. I think there’s players, especially, at edge, who are going to play a lot more who are larger than the players who were playing last year.

The key is they are brining in people who can set the edge better than the players who got the majority of the snaps last year.

Whether it’s size or just that they are better at it, I think the run defense is going to be better.

Of course, it could not be much worse.

The question I have is where pressure is going to come from. My guess is they address some type of an edge rusher with one of the first 2 picks in the draft, depending on how the board falls.
 
Ferrell good depth player, maybe the best run stuffer we had at DE, not hot but OK at it. Armstrong was also bad against the run last year, it wasn't just Ferrell
 
actorguy1 said:
Is Za'Darius Smith going to be the 2025 version of Jonathan Hawkins?!?
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Hankins? I think he's ironically a FA, too. I got an edge rusher (I like Calais but he's not my top want) that I really want but lol I think I will get some grief here to put him out there or worse whenever I mention a player some team often signs them hours later -- so I think I am a jinx. :)
 
Exactly as to the tweets below. The edges that sucked against the run are Armstrong and Fowler.

Jonathan Allen, love the player, all good feelings for me about his tenure unlike some others here apparently as to how they feel about him -- but he was also sneaky bad against thie run THIS past season. Not his career. But the last season.

We need more pass rushing juice. No doubt. But I think they've made progress for stopping the run.

 
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My top wants of what's left out there:

1) Von Miller. Old but perfectly serviceable as a situational pass rusher still.
2) Keenan Allen. Big bodied possession receiver. Deadly in the redzone.
3) Calais Campbell. No need to talk about this ageless wonder. Interior pressure is invaluable.
4) Justin Simmons. Career ball hawk.
5) Teven Jenkins. Interior run game mauler.
 
clskinsfan said:
My top wants of what's left out there:

1) Von Miller. Old but perfectly serviceable as a situational pass rusher still.
2) Keenan Allen. Big bodied possession receiver. Deadly in the redzone.
3) Calais Campbell. No need to talk about this ageless wonder. Interior pressure is invaluable.
4) Justin Simmons. Career ball hawk.
5) Teven Jenkins. Interior run game mauler.
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OK you put it out there before me, so maybe no jinx on my end :) Love Calais too for reasons I expressed but I think Miller is more needed now because we got some good run stuffers now.





 
clskinsfan said:
I would have loved Fowler back as a 3rd down rusher. But yeah he is abysmal against the run.
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He’s a good situational pass rusher - should only be on the field in passing situations/downs. That’s how he’s being paid as well.

Good chance edge is a high priority with our first or second round pick if the board falls favourably. Za Smith is still out there I think and would be a nice add still.

Edge and corner are still areas of concern for me on D. I’d like a true centre field FS as well to allow Martin to play closer to the LOS.
 
From having listened to a lot of NFL podcasts there are some beliefs I think a lot of analysts believe that the general population of NFL fans don't hold:

1. Sacks is primarily a QB Stat: This can be certainly be overstated. Scheme and O-Line play significantly roles in sacks taken, but the QB is the largest variable.

2. When looking at pass rushers, pressures is a much more stable metric than sack total. Yes its true some players will convert a higher percentage of their sacks to pressure. In general it tends to be the speedy bendy players who can do that. They either win quick or lose the rep. However for all players including speed pass rusher and power pass rushers the pressure to sack ratio is going to be volatile year to year. Daron Payne had 47 pressures and 4.5 sacks in 2021 and 49 pressures and 12 sacks in 2022. The difference in sacks was largely just volatility of that stat which is notorious for being volatile. Looking at pressure rate and total pressures much more predictive of future performance than sack numbers. Fowler is coming off a year with 10.5 sacks off of 50 pressures. That is a lot of sacks for that amount of pressures. Granted Fowler is a speedy bendy guy so his pressure to sack ratio most years will be decent, but still you expecting 7.5 sacks based off those numbers, not 10.5. Plus he is not a good run defender. Do I think Fowler is worth a 6 million base contract that can go up to 8 million with incentives in a vacuum...Yes I do because 7 sacks is probably worth that. But for our situation where we think we can manufacture pressures and we want to focus on improving the run defense particularly setting the edge which Fowler is bad at, he may not have been the right fit for us.
 
SkinsLife said:
I don’t deny that he can’t stay healthy but when he is on the field he is every bit a #1 wr. For 2/3 of a season. The last 3 years he still averaged 800yds and 6tds in 12 games. 15mil per year is less than Christian Kirk making. Metcalf played almost full season and still averaged only 1000 yds. He is making double what Kupp is.
Mcafrey was injury proned before he joined the Niners too, but even at 2/3 of a season 15 mil is a good deal for a #1wr. He’ll be a #2 in Seattle and if they figure out a way to keep him healthy for most of the season that contract is a steal.
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What age was McCaffrey when he went to the 49ers?

What age will Kupp be next season?

You can not equate the two and say Kupp could suddenly get less injury prone.
 
I think Kupp is good, but durability matters. In a 8 year NFL career he has two 1,000 yard seasons (he has another with 974 yards). Compare that to McLaurin in his 6 NFL seasons has five 1,000 yard seasons and his only non 1,000 yard season was his rookie year with 919 yards. Kupp had that incredible 2021 season with 1947 yards which is second only to Calvin Johnson's 2012 season, but he only has one 1,000 yard season beyond that (2019).
 
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