Individual players can buck the overwhelming statistical trend, of course. That’s why we have the phrase “the exception that proves the rule”. The problem is there’s no way to tell who the exceptions will be. HOF-bound veterans much better and more productive than Terry have fallen to the uncaring reaping scythe of time. And will continue to do so.
You saying it’s a non-story is like me saying “my uncle drunk drives home 15 miles from the bar every single night and hasn’t gotten in an accident yet. Drunk driving is a non-story”. That’s an exaggerated example of course but I hope the point is clear. Betting on outliers at top of market prices is bad business.
Maybe Terry’s body and game will age well. Maybe it won’t. But you have no idea and the statistics overwhelmingly say that production (which is already not top tier) will fall off a cliff. It’s not a coin flip, which in itself would be risky.
How much you weight that in your decision-making is certainly worth arguing about. Not weighting it at all because you’ve deemed it a “non-story”? Reckless beyond belief and honestly pretty naive. It’s the height of homerism because you have no reason to believe you’re correct except that you believe it.
Agree. The other factor with age is injury. You are more susceptible to it and it takes longer to overcome and you might not be the same after.
Santana Moss, the last really good WR we had pre Terry. Had a really good season at 31. then from 32-35 he was just a guy -- not the same dude. And he prides himself on being in uber shape back in the day. Look at Gary Clark pre 30 and post 30. Totally different.
Yes there are exceptions to every rule. But as you pointed out, we don't know where Terry will land on that front. Maybe he's the next Terrell Owens who still excels into his 30s, or maybe he's Odell Beckham who falls off a cliff.
Probably he ends up somewhere in between, where at 31, the first year of his new contract, he will still be the old Terry or close enough but after that he's good but nothing great but you are paying him as if hes great. Ala the Daron Payne contract.
Terry insisting that its not an issue with him -- comes off silly and self-serving to me -- at least his public version of selling it which is stressing the screen he took it to the house against the Lions. And I don't mind him being self-serving, it comes with the turf in contracts but he's taking that point so publicly and acting as if his point is so compelling. It's one play, Terry. We know you are still fast. The question is why would he defy the odds when he's 32 or whatever -- and the answer is he doesn't know that he will, no one does. So that's where the anayltics come in.
Devante Adams and Mike Evans -- 30 plus WRs, with great careers, arguably greater than Terry, didn't as far as I know have a snit about not getting paid like a 25-27 year old WRs. No drama that I can recall. No defiant, I am bigger than the age, and how dare people see otherwise. Especially in Mike Evans case -- he could equally do the Terry bit about how he's a good guy and has done a lot for the organization and should be rewarded accordingly. Heck Evans might be an even bigger Tampa legend than Terry is here. Like I said, I do think for a dude who sells himself like he's a non-diva, he is IMO acting some like a diva in this contract dispute.
The other compoent of paying a younger dude like a Garrett Wilson more, isn't just that you don't expect that post 30 decline since they are younger, you are also betting on potential. They can get even better. WRs don't tend to get better as they head deeper into their 30s to say the least.
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