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DogofWar1
The Free Agent Vet
I'm hoping Egbuka's label as "professional #2" will drop him to us, bc I think he's being downplayed just like Terry was, and in fairness to those sentiments he isn't Chase or Jefferson, but you don't need to be Chase or Jefferson to be a top 10-15 solid #1 WR in the NFL.
But Burden falling may doom that. Golden's rise gave me some hope but I find it hard to believe there won't be at least 3 WRs off the board before 29.
Re: RBs, I appreciate all the conversation, but I kinda wanna reverse-Moneyball the position.
We keep trying to recreate Clinton Portis in the aggregate, and we just haven't done it. But we can draft Giamb-I mean a new Clinton Portis.
Now, I don't know that we have the resources for it tho, unless we're taking Hampton at 29, and I don't know if the guys like Henderson or Judkins will still be there at 61 (I'll settle for a truly Gibbs-like guy), but I think philosophically that's where I kinda wanna move towards.
We've spent a 2nd rounder twice on RBs this century, on Guice, who was plagued with injuries, and then allll the way back with Betts who was a solid #2 behind Portis and had one magical year while Portis was injured. No 1sts spent this century. We've periodically gotten good RB play from guys like AlMo, Gibson, and the like, but also, we've had two 1000 yard rushers post 2014, and that was sub-1100 yard years from Adrian Peterson and Antonio Gibson. Gotta go alllllll the way back to 2013 to find a 1200+ yard rusher, with AlMo.
I know it's very possible to get good RBs later, but the stats are not friendly on it.
56 unique players have had 1000+ rushing seasons since 2015
15 were 1st rounders
12 were 2nd rounders
7 were 3rd, 8 were 4th, 5 were 5th, 1 6th, 1 7th, and 7 UDFA
And of the 40 total 1200+ yard seasons from 2015 to 2024, 33/40 were 1st or 2nd rounders.
If you look at the total body of work of those 56 unique players (so including those players' pre-2015 seasons too), they totaled:
54 1200+ yard seasons, of which 24 were 1st rounders, 19 2nd rounders, 7 3rd rounders (3 of which were Frank Gore by himself), 0 4th rounders, 3 5th rounders, 0 6th rounders, 1 7th rounder, and 0 from UDFAs.
80 additional 1000+ yards seasons, of which 20 were from 1st rounders, 18 2nd, 12 3rd (6 from Frank Gore), 12 4th, 7 5th, 1 6th, 1 7th, 9 UDFA.
Which is to say, of the 56 unique players who managed 1000+ yard seasons in the last decade:
48% were from 1st two rounds;
and those 48% of players account for 79% of total 1200+ yard seasons those 56 players put up; and
those 48% of players account for 47.5% of 1000-1199 yard seasons those 56 players played.
They account for a combined 81/134 1000+ yard seasons those 56 players put up.
And I mention Frank Gore bc he's a huge outlier. 3 1200+ yard seasons in his career, and 6 additional 1000+ yard seasons. If you remove Frank Gore from the equation, of the 125 1000+ yard seasons those 55 players put up, 3rd round to UDFA accounts for only 8 total unique 1200 yard seasons and 36 total unique 1000-1199 seasons. That is, every player after the 2nd who managed to put up 1000+ yards accounted for a combined 44/125 1000+ yard seasons while 1st and 2nd rounders accounted for 81/125 1000+ yard seasons.
OBVIOUSLY player quality matters.
BUT picking an RB after the 2nd feels like playing roulette or throwing darts, while picking one 1st or 2nd round is more akin to blackjack. You at least have okay odds to beat the house.
But Burden falling may doom that. Golden's rise gave me some hope but I find it hard to believe there won't be at least 3 WRs off the board before 29.
Re: RBs, I appreciate all the conversation, but I kinda wanna reverse-Moneyball the position.
We keep trying to recreate Clinton Portis in the aggregate, and we just haven't done it. But we can draft Giamb-I mean a new Clinton Portis.
Now, I don't know that we have the resources for it tho, unless we're taking Hampton at 29, and I don't know if the guys like Henderson or Judkins will still be there at 61 (I'll settle for a truly Gibbs-like guy), but I think philosophically that's where I kinda wanna move towards.
We've spent a 2nd rounder twice on RBs this century, on Guice, who was plagued with injuries, and then allll the way back with Betts who was a solid #2 behind Portis and had one magical year while Portis was injured. No 1sts spent this century. We've periodically gotten good RB play from guys like AlMo, Gibson, and the like, but also, we've had two 1000 yard rushers post 2014, and that was sub-1100 yard years from Adrian Peterson and Antonio Gibson. Gotta go alllllll the way back to 2013 to find a 1200+ yard rusher, with AlMo.
I know it's very possible to get good RBs later, but the stats are not friendly on it.
56 unique players have had 1000+ rushing seasons since 2015
15 were 1st rounders
12 were 2nd rounders
7 were 3rd, 8 were 4th, 5 were 5th, 1 6th, 1 7th, and 7 UDFA
And of the 40 total 1200+ yard seasons from 2015 to 2024, 33/40 were 1st or 2nd rounders.
If you look at the total body of work of those 56 unique players (so including those players' pre-2015 seasons too), they totaled:
54 1200+ yard seasons, of which 24 were 1st rounders, 19 2nd rounders, 7 3rd rounders (3 of which were Frank Gore by himself), 0 4th rounders, 3 5th rounders, 0 6th rounders, 1 7th rounder, and 0 from UDFAs.
80 additional 1000+ yards seasons, of which 20 were from 1st rounders, 18 2nd, 12 3rd (6 from Frank Gore), 12 4th, 7 5th, 1 6th, 1 7th, 9 UDFA.
Which is to say, of the 56 unique players who managed 1000+ yard seasons in the last decade:
48% were from 1st two rounds;
and those 48% of players account for 79% of total 1200+ yard seasons those 56 players put up; and
those 48% of players account for 47.5% of 1000-1199 yard seasons those 56 players played.
They account for a combined 81/134 1000+ yard seasons those 56 players put up.
And I mention Frank Gore bc he's a huge outlier. 3 1200+ yard seasons in his career, and 6 additional 1000+ yard seasons. If you remove Frank Gore from the equation, of the 125 1000+ yard seasons those 55 players put up, 3rd round to UDFA accounts for only 8 total unique 1200 yard seasons and 36 total unique 1000-1199 seasons. That is, every player after the 2nd who managed to put up 1000+ yards accounted for a combined 44/125 1000+ yard seasons while 1st and 2nd rounders accounted for 81/125 1000+ yard seasons.
OBVIOUSLY player quality matters.
BUT picking an RB after the 2nd feels like playing roulette or throwing darts, while picking one 1st or 2nd round is more akin to blackjack. You at least have okay odds to beat the house.
The Rook
