Here's a truth: We have a 94% chance to make the playoffs. Here are our clinching scenarios for seed #7 for weeks 17 and 18. We make the playoffs if:
1. We win in week 17 (ATL) OR week 18 (DAL)
If we go 0-2 to finish the season, we still clinch the #7 seed if one of the following happens:
1. Atlanta loses in week 18 (vs CAR)
2. Tampa Bay loses in either week 17 (vs CAR) OR Week 18 (vs. NO)
The only way we miss the playoffs is if the following scenario plays out. In this instance, Tampa would beat us for the #7 seed by virtue of head to head matchup.
1. We lose both remaining games.
2. Atlanta and Tampa both win out.
As the #7 seed, we are basically guaranteed to go to Philly and play game #3 against the Eagles. There's a very small outside chance to play Minnesota, but that involves the Lions losing their last two, philly winning out, and Minnesota both losing Week 17 (vs GB) and winning week 18 (@DET)
In order to clinch the #6 seed and get a more favorable matchup, we need to finish with the same number of wins as Green Bay. We have the tiebreaker over them in this scenario by virtue of better conference record. If we clinch #6, we most likely play either the Rams or the Bucs/Falcons.