Tell the Truth Monday- Playoff Edition

Strength of opponents often change from 1 year to the next. Admittedly next seasons opponents look significantly stronger than this seasons but you never really know. I will worry about that in due time.
 
Gooseneck said:
Next year we have the schedule from hell- NFC north and AFC west- it will be a real interesting year
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This, along with health and not really knowing if NY or Dallas might improve, is why it's so important to make the most of this opportunity. Daniels and Kingsbury have the league on its heels right now, so go ahead and make a run.

Next year could come with a few tough losses where there were wins this year (ask Cincy), or the Giants might hit on a transcendent QB making the division more competitive, or Kingsbury might take a new job, etc.
 
We need Lattimore in the worst way for this run. BSJ has been frustrating but Davis got absolutely abused. Gotta get the 1-4 Lattimore/Sanristil/Igbinoghene/BSJ.

Last night was super tight but if Lattimore is healthy the game probably isn't that close. Davis committed crucial penalties and London was just a tad too good for Sanristil to lock down by himself. Lattimore on London, move Sanristil to #2, Igbin on 3 and BSJ in sometimes, and they probably lose like 2 drives that ended in points.

Gotta clean up penalties if we wanna do a deep run tho. Not gonna survive if we give them 60+ yards for free.
 
I think Sanristal's size is always going to present difficulties against certain receivers. It's just reality. If a guy is six inches taller than you and thirty pounds heavier, he's just going to be harder to guard and tackle. It reminds me a little bit of Darrell Green vs. some of the bigger wide receivers of his day. Green would generally win with coverage, but because refs hate calling Offensive PI, bigger receivers like Irvin would always push off on him.
 
MartinC said:
I’d say without #5 we are a 5 to 6 win team at best.
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I agree. However the only team I think if you take their top 5-10 QB off them who would still be very good with an “average” replacement is Philly. They have Barkley, and a great defense, and enough weapons to compensate for average QB play.

Just about all the other teams, you lost 5-6 wins of your top-end QB goes down. The Bills becomes a 7 win team, Bengals probably a 4-5 win team, Chiefs a 6-8 win team….

Dallas lost Dak. They might end up 7-10. With Dak you’d have to think they’re at least 10-7.

The hard one for me is to give Goff credit. For some reason I’m just stuck on the fact McVay didn’t want him even though he got them to a SB, so he must be terrible. He probably isn’t. But eh.
 
An interesting mental exercise would be to project how many wins we get if we kept Sam Howell. I think we still do better, but fall in the 7-9 win range. The caveat being that with that first rounder, Peters got an A+ left tackle and further built the line. I still think Howell could have been a good NFL starter. The difference is stark though. Daniels can be a great NFL starter and the difference between good and great is vast.
 
burgold said:
An interesting mental exercise would be to project how many wins we get if we kept Sam Howell. I think we still do better, but fall in the 7-9 win range. The caveat being that with that first rounder, Peters got an A+ left tackle and further built the line. I still think Howell could have been a good NFL starter. The difference is stark though. Daniels can be a great NFL starter and the difference between good and great is vast.
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We'd post at least one loss to the Giants. We drop the Bears game for sure. This ATL game. Philly, Bengals, Saints. I have no doubt they'd all be Ls. 6-7 game difference all because of a huge upgrade at QB.

A lot of our wins is Jayden Daniels pulling things out of his ass like Joe Montana(I've never seen Joe, but it's that feeling that the last drive is "his drive")
 
Bulldog said:
The reason Daniels is the MVP is without him this team with another quarterback wins 5 or 6 games.

The only other guy this year like that is Josh Allen in Buffalo.
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Agreed, I think this is Josh's year, he has been unbelievable, but there is no reason that anyone should be #2 ahead of JD5.
 
burgold said:
An interesting mental exercise would be to project how many wins we get if we kept Sam Howell. I think we still do better, but fall in the 7-9 win range. The caveat being that with that first rounder, Peters got an A+ left tackle and further built the line. I still think Howell could have been a good NFL starter. The difference is stark though. Daniels can be a great NFL starter and the difference between good and great is vast.
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Taking the 5 games that JD has led a late TD drive to win it, and recognizing that Howell wouldn't have done it once, and assume we would be 6-10 right now. At best!
 
I don't think Jayden gets the MVP nod this year, but he should definitely be in the conversation. Easily top 10 player, arguably top 5.

If we base it on who is the biggest driver of a team's success, it's probably something like, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and JD5 right at the top. Burrow is out there just willing this team to victories despite having a terrible defense. Josh Allen just takes games over too. And JD5 has liquid nitrogen in his veins, guy makes cool cucumbers look like they're on fire by comparison.

Mahomes, Darnold, and Goff are getting a lot of help from their defense. Lamar elevates the Ravens so he deserves to be in the convo but Derrick Henry helps A LOT. Which is also like with Philly, their MVP candidate would be Barkley not Hurts. Baker Maybefield? His defense isn't amazing, but he is getting some help from the running game, but he's been pretty prolific.

Probably in terms of "carrying their team on their back" it's probably:
1. Burrow
2a/b. Allen/Daniels
4. Mayfield
5. Lamar

Cinci's defense suuuuucks. 4th worst in points allowed per game. You gotta go from 29th to 21st to the Falcons to find another team that has at least an even record, and then to 19th to get to the first team with a winning record (that's us). They are on an island surrounded by teams vying for top 5 picks, and yet if they beat the Steelers and Denver loses to the devil magic users that are the Chiefs, they're in.
 
I think we're remembering second half Howell vs. first half Howell, but it's moot. It's also possible that he's damaged goods and he was hit so often that he would never return to that guy we saw at the beginning of the season. But I need to stop or make it a separate threat because this speculation game has nothing to do with this thread.
 
I think predicting future strength of schedule based on the current year is a fool’s errand. The NFL is pretty volatile season to season, whether due to coaching changes, roster turnover, draft results, injuries, etc…

Sure there are teams that are consistently good year after year (KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, San Fran…) mostly through having good coaches and a franchise QB. But beyond those kinds of teams, it’s hard to predict how good a team will be ‘next year’.
 
burgold said:
An interesting mental exercise would be to project how many wins we get if we kept Sam Howell. I think we still do better, but fall in the 7-9 win range. The caveat being that with that first rounder, Peters got an A+ left tackle and further built the line. I still think Howell could have been a good NFL starter. The difference is stark though. Daniels can be a great NFL starter and the difference between good and great is vast.
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Howell stinks. No way we're even close to 7 wins with him. At best we're 5-10 with wins over Cleveland, Tennessee, New Orleans, Carolina, and probably one of the NYG games.
 
Boone said:
I think predicting future strength of schedule based on the current year is a fool’s errand. The NFL is pretty volatile season to season, whether due to coaching changes, roster turnover, draft results, injuries, etc…

Sure there are teams that are consistently good year after year (KC, Buffalo, Baltimore, San Fran…) mostly through having good coaches and a franchise QB. But beyond those kinds of teams, it’s hard to predict how good a team will be ‘next year’.
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Hell predicting strength of opponent IN SEASON can be unpredictable.

It often matters just as much when you play a team vs. who you play.

For example if we faced the Bucs in that mid season stretch where they were without basically all their best players we'd have beaten them. On the flip side, we definitely benefitted from playing the Saints late without Carr.
 
Feels really good seeing black Monday quickly approaching and knowing we're not only completely irrelevant in the speculation but not even worthy of being fodder for the pot stirring florios of the world.
 
Not to mention that this time last season I was living on the tankathon website. 🤣
 
Well, if there is anything we learned from this season, its that we have no idea the value of the additions we put on this roster. With AP and DQ, what we do know is we will get the most out of those guys and they will be put in positions to succeed a helluva more often than not.
 
I don't really have any big truth to share. I just like this thread. So... bump.
 
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