Something to think about

[Henry]

Hey guys, I did a little research for another discussion and I thought I'd share some findings here. I don't really have a point, I just thought this was interesting:

We talk about seasons being broken up into quarters. If that's true then the Redskins consistently play much better in the first quarter than any other.

EDIT: I'm going to keep updating this just to see if this ever improves, ever.

Records by quarter:

2012: 2-2, 1-3, 3-1, 4-0
2011: 3-1, 0-4, 1-3, 1-3
2010: 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 1-3
2009: 2-2, 0-4, 1-3, 1-3
2008: 3-1, 3-1, 1-3, 1-3
2007: 3-1, 2-2, 0-4, 4-0
2006: 2-2, 1-3, 1-3, 2-2
2005: 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 4-0
2004: 1-3, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2
2003: 3-1, 0-4, 1-3, 1-3
2002: 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2

A couple things stand out to me:
- We generally play our best in September.
- We generally play our worst over the middle eight games, specifically November. That third quarter of the season is just brutal.
- Gibbs was a strong finisher (surprise surprise.)
- Griffin's mojo FINALLY ended this trend.

What does all this mean? No clue. Just be cautiously optimistic, I guess.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Hey guys, I did a little research for another discussion and I thought I'd share some findings here. I don't really have a point, I just thought this was interesting:

We talk about seasons being broken up into quarters. If that's true then the Redskins consistently play much better in the first quarter than any other.

Records by quarter:

2010: 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 1-3
2009: 2-2, 0-4, 1-3, 1-3
2008: 3-1, 3-1, 1-3, 1-3
2007: 3-1, 2-2, 0-4, 4-0
2006: 2-2, 1-3, 1-3, 2-2
2005: 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 4-0
2004: 1-3, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2
2003: 3-1, 0-4, 1-3, 1-3
2002: 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2

Great stats, Henry. I believe we had a long streak of winning our home opener until 2006 (when we lost to Minnesota); they've always played well in September it seems like. Specifically I remember the "worst 3-0 team of all time" being said about the 2005 Redskins. And indeed that team did outperform expectations a bit.

What does all this mean? No clue. Just be cautiously optimistic, I guess.

As always...although maybe "cautiously pessimistic" would be more appropriate for the Redskins.

 

[burgold]

If I had to guess... I would say it's the new coach phenomenon. That is, for the first couple of games for so many years, opponents wouldn't have game tape on what Zorn, Spurrier, Marty, Shanny, etc. like to do and thus with the surprise factor and a little bit of inspiration and hope that comes with being part of a new regime, we left the gates strong.

Then, as tape was gathered... we fizzled... or Vinny's lack of depth caught up with us and once we lost the first line we couldn't match up anymore.

This was true even with coach's were here for more than one year. For example, Gibbs had multiple different offensive play callers both on offense and defense during his short three year tenure.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

Then, as tape was gathered... we fizzled... or Vinny's lack of depth caught up with us and once we lost the first line we couldn't match up anymore.

This would be my guess - the teams that win consistently are very deep. Look at the Packers last year - their IR list was ridiculous, yet they persevered and won the superbowl.

 

[Om]

I did a piece once---thinking it was back on Gibbs' return---breaking down his first tenure by year/quarter. Going to try to find it. What I recall is being blown away by the steady progression his teams ALWAYS seemed to make toward improving by quarter. His teams almost w/o exception improved quarter by quarter, even month by month, with the December and January winning percentages being just off the charts.

Good stuff, H. Brings home the old adage 'it ain't how you start, it's how you finish' with a flourish.

Here's hoping.

 

[China]

Those 3rd quarter stats are brutal. That can't keep up. I imagine that'll turn around this year.

A strong finish would be great to couple with a strong start, lets hope there isn't a big lull in the middle.

 

[Henry]

Ok, so since I started this thread the Redskins have gone 0-4 and now 1-3 over the second quarter of the season. With the wheels falling off against Pittsburgh it sure looks like more of the same this year.

 

[burgold]

Historically, and maybe even this year that had to do with injuries, relying on older vets, and an overall lack of depth.

The other thing I think going on is that whether it was Haslett or Williams, we've generally relied on a pretty one dimensional defense. With Haslett it's blitz crazy or go prevent. By the 4th or 5th game, offenses decide how to counter it and can.

Edit: I like my earlier answer too lol

 

[Bulldog]

The obvious difference is that the Redskins under Gibbs had a power ethic. They had a physically bigger and stronger team by design (draft and free agency) than most of the other teams on their schedule.

The current Redskins don't follow that line. On the offensive line and in the front seven on defense, the team's linemen and linebackers are often times undersized for their positions, which can lead to being worn down over a certain number of games.

Lichtensteiger is 285-290 at guard. Montgomery is 295 at center. Chris Chester is 315 but he is not a powerful point of attack anchor by any stretch.

On defense, Cofield is 305 as a NT. That's a bit smaller than the 315-325 guys you see on most 3-4 fronts (if not bigger). Fletcher is a leader but at 37 is also 5'11 and 245. Perry Riley is 6'1 and 240. Compare that to the inside linebackers on the Steelers who are all in the 260 range.

The lack of size extends to the secondary where starting corners Hall and Wilson are 5'11 and 5'9 and neither is over 200.

So, altogether you have a smallish team that over games is worn down by opponents and lacks the depth to overcome injuries.

That is why you see the November-December fade.

I still don't buy into the 'we can get by on the OL with waiver wire guys from other teams' approach Shanahan has taken.

In Denver, he had a HOFer at LT in Gary Zimmermann and two pro bowlers in Dan Neal and Mark Schlereth inside at OC and OG.

Other than Trent Williams there is no premium talent on this OL or in the pipeline.

While you can't get every player in Year 1, you have to admit where the holes are to look to improve in the future.

We are in Year 1.

Keep remembering that and the rest of the season will make more sense and be less frustrating at times to watch.

As I said after seeing Griffin in Weeks 1-3 perform but see other units fail, I began to wonder if Shanahan had drafted RGIII so that the NEXT coach here could benefit and win a Super Bowl or two.

 

[Elephant]

You keep saying this is year 1...how can you say that? This is year three with a new QB at the start of the season for the 3rd time.

 

[Bulldog]

Yes, chronologically it is Year 3.

But the reality ON THE FIELD when you watch this team is that they are in fact in Year 1 of a building cycle.

That may or may not come back to bite Shanny with Allen and Snyder, but it's the truth.

This team is only competitive when Griffin is electric.

Morris comes in and immediately establishes himself as a #6 pick.

Those are indications the pre-existing roster didn't have that much talent on it.

 

[Elephant]

That's simply absurd. It may feel like year one because we have a rookie QB and RB whom we should build around, but every player on that starting OL, our only real threat at WR and our front 7 on defense are all pieces that have been put together over the past three years.

I understand what you're getting at, but that is almost like you're excusing Shanahan for his failures. This is what a year 3 looks like under Mike Shanahan. He was shown to have little success building things his way in Denver, yet he was brought here to build a team. After 2 and a half seasons, we are no better than when he arrived. Sure we have a couple of new bright shiny toys in the garage, but nothing else has changed. We are still a bad team.

Over the next couple of seasons we need to hit a couple of real home runs with our 2nd and 3rd round draft picks. The Alfred Morris' of the world only come every so often, and RB seems to be the only position Shanahan has had such success, except for a couple of mid round OL over his tenure in Denver. We need to hit the ball out of the park with a 2nd round star CB and/or OT. And I don't have faith he can do it.

 

[Ax]

Agree with El. This is Shanny's 3rd year, and he, and his entire staff, haven't even beaten Jim Zorn & Co, in the final results category.

 

[Lanky Livingston]

I'm with El also - I'm willing to give them a 'do-over' for year 1, but that still means its year-2 of a rebuild, with only slightly discernible progress (and regression on D). Now next year, with Orakpo & Carriker back and one more year under the OL's belts, I'm willing to bet we improve drastically. But still you can't call this year one.

 

[Henry]

I'm with El also - I'm willing to give them a 'do-over' for year 1, but that still means its year-2 of a rebuild, with only slightly discernible progress (and regression on D). Now next year, with Orakpo & Carriker back and one more year under the OL's belts, I'm willing to bet we improve drastically. But still you can't call this year one.

That's how I see it as well. This is Year Two.

The injuries can excuse some of the mess on defense but even considering them, Worst In The History of The NFL shouldn't happen.

 

[Bulldog]

The cap penalty to me means we get to see Allen and Shanahan build this team the old-fashioned way, by scouting and drafting players and then developing them

The draft can be a crap shoot, but we have definitely seen that can be the case on the trade market (Jammal Brown) and free agency (Josh Morgan).

We need to make that #2 selection count. A smart GM is going to find a starting caliber player at the top of Round 2, there are often first round talents in those first 8-10 picks in the round that fell for one reason or another that may have nothing to do with pure ability.

We also need to do better in Rounds 3-5.

We have done a decent enough job in Rounds 6 and 7, finding Alfred Morris and some complementary players that could develop into solid depth over time.

That's about what you expect from Rounds 6-7, guys competing for backup and ST roles while occasionally finding the Morris type starter that has been overlooked.

Remember that the #1 receiver we just committed $42M to in the offseason, Pierre Garcon, was found in ROUND SIX by Bill Polian in Indianapolis

 

[Ax]

The sad part is, this coaching staff won't win until the team is made up of pro bowlers at every position. Which won't happen.

But, maybe they can stock the shelves for the next group to do a better job with.

 

[Bulldog]

One of my first thoughts after the Rams game was that Griffin and Morris were brought in here but would probably play out their career primes for another head coach and win with him.

Shanahan has been very slow to get re-started in the NFL after sitting out a season.

2010 was a complete disaster. Instead of recognizing this was an old team with past the prime talent and a lot of holes, he went out and traded draft picks for two veterans in McNabb and Brown who didn't produce ANYTHING in DC.

2010 SHOULD have been a year about purging the roster of players and cap dollars so that 2012 would have been a clean slate.

If we had cut Hall in 2010 it would have been painful and we would have cut veterans and probably gone 1-15 instead of 6-10.

But in the end what does 6-10 or 7-9 get you with an old roster?

There is no future there.

Mike should have been smart enough to see the Redskins needed a rebuild on a similar scale to what the Cowboys did under Jimmy Johnson in the 1990's.

The Cowboys cut everybody and accepted being lousy to then build up with the kind of players they wanted on the roster.

But Mike for some reason thought he was coming into a job where a few moves would put this team back in the running for a playoff spot.

I think if Mike had been working with a 'real' GM, ie a personnel guy that started as a scout as opposed to Bruce Allen who is more of a financial/operations guy.

 

[Neophyte]

I'm not sure why folks seem so stunned that the secondary is as bad as it is. While we did some things to address it in the off season, none of those moves are on the field at the moment except for Cedric Griffin and he was always a 3rd CB or backup FS type. It is essentially the same secondary we had last year, just a year older and without the legit, though oft injured, Landry at safety (tell me you don't miss him watching Williams play).

I have to say I sort of expected this although perhaps not on this scale but only because I expected the pass rush to be better. It isn't, so we are suffering. Landry was the last high draft pick we spent on the Secondary that gave us anything and that was in 2007. We haven't taken a DB higher than the 5th round since then except for Barnes (3rd, 2009) and Tryon (4th, 2008). Neither of those guys worked out and both got traded for the NFL equivalent of a ham sandwich.

We are paying the price right now for the mishandling of players or outright tragedy. A secondary that should have three first round picks in Rogers, Landry and the late Taylor, all in the prime of their careers, would be fine with Wilson as the second corner and would be hard to throw on even with our current pass rush. But former coaching staffs (and maybe medical staffs) mishandled Rogers and Landry to the point we had to just let them go for nothing and there is no need to rehash the tragedy that is Taylor.

We are paying for past sins and will continue to do so for a while longer.

 

[Rymanofthenorth]

im not willing to give Shannahan a pass when we are not in this hole because of someone else.

WHO made the decision in his first season that this team was close enough that a few moves would get us playoff bound?

WHO made the decision to blow up the defence?

WHO made the decision to sign aging vets in the first season while cutting our own aging vets?

Bottom line, this is year 3, he gets no pass for his own screw ups, he gets not free season because by god WE SUFFERED THROUGH THAT ABORTED MISSION OF A SEASON.

if he doesnt get this turned around and start making better adjustments, then I hope we get rid of him, bring someone from his coaching tree who is young, to run the offence, get a real team president, geta real DC, go young, get young guys with upside who are looking to build their own legacy.