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So You Are Excited by a 5th Round QB...
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Thoughts on the above...
The hit rate of picks 1-16 is only 35% and should be higher. I theorize that it isn't higher because too many teams reach for a guy who should be in Group 2 out of a sense of desperation. My guess is that this reaching has something of a domino effect all the way down the line until you get the 6th and 7th rounds where teams are drafting guys who should have been UDFAs.
I'm also guessing that for whatever reason, this year teams drafted QBs much closer to the nexus of where their talent mets correct draft slot. No clue why but it is fascinating, isn't it?
The hit rate of picks 1-16 is only 35% and should be higher. I theorize that it isn't higher because too many teams reach for a guy who should be in Group 2 out of a sense of desperation. My guess is that this reaching has something of a domino effect all the way down the line until you get the 6th and 7th rounds where teams are drafting guys who should have been UDFAs.
I'm also guessing that for whatever reason, this year teams drafted QBs much closer to the nexus of where their talent mets correct draft slot. No clue why but it is fascinating, isn't it?
Guys drafted in those rounds have a huge uphill battle in front of them just getting on the field for any sustained period. Of course it’s likely that the higher you are drafted the more innate and obvious talent you have. But there may well be a number of guys who never made it simply because they could never break into a roster sufficiently to get serious playing time.
Agree, and to add that at least some of the coaching staff’s are misusing said players. Hell we saw it last season with our own team. I’m of the belief that there’s MANY variables as to why some players can shine in their respective program while others cannot. Throw in many schools do not get the quality coaches and press coverage, so finding gems becomes more difficult at all the schools. Hardheaded coaching staffs can bury talent without even realizing it.
To answer the threads question my answer is yes, I’m excited to see what Howell can do. Not this season mind you but he gets to sit and absorb/watch veterans at the position before being relied upon for anything. It may be 2-3 years before he starts if Wentz ballz TF out. All the better imho.
At worst the team coaches him up and has future potential as trade bait. There’s desperation every season, look at the Wentz deal for example. At best he sits and learns until Wentz is no longer a viable starter, in 2-3 years he’s had fantastic preparation to lead the team as the QB of the future and this team can finally quit wondering what if. Basically rounds picked mean nothing in the grand scheme, they can adapt and play or not, it all depends on how he’s coached up here.
I, too, am cautiously optimistic but only that. I thought he was the 2nd best guy at the position in this year's draft and I expected him to go in the second round but the people whose real job is talent eval didn't agree. That's important. I'm sure there are a lot of reasons that guys who are projected to go high by people who mock draft for entertainment fall down the board. Some legit and some probably not so legit but the QB position is different. It is ALWAYS a position of need for every single team in the league. After all, Joe Gibbs called the backup QB the second most important position on the team.
Guys that NFL people believe can really play the position of QB don't last to the 5th round.
Howell will not even be QB2 this year and will not see the field for a meaningful game except in some dire circumstances. If Wentz ends up being what Ron and Co apparently think he will, Howell is years away from any meaningful game time for any of us to get an idea of what he is. I know guys are arguing that his draft stock fell because he lost all his weapons and spent the year running for his life. I have seen all the tweets about how he was projected to be a 1st or 2nd round pick if he had come out last year. News flash, NFL scouts watch tape too and they don't hold a drop by the WR against a QB who just hit them in the hands. And all the projections of Howell in the 1st or 2nd last year were made by the same guys who had Hutchinson as a lock to go first overall this year and a whole host of other misses in this year's draft.
All I'm saying is the expectations I am already seeing attached to Howell's name are a bit unrealistic. For every Tom Brady there are a hundred guys drafted in the bottom rounds whose whole NFL career is warming a chair in the QB room and running the scout team.
I have HOPES for Howell. I do not have expectations.
Guys that NFL people believe can really play the position of QB don't last to the 5th round.
Howell will not even be QB2 this year and will not see the field for a meaningful game except in some dire circumstances. If Wentz ends up being what Ron and Co apparently think he will, Howell is years away from any meaningful game time for any of us to get an idea of what he is. I know guys are arguing that his draft stock fell because he lost all his weapons and spent the year running for his life. I have seen all the tweets about how he was projected to be a 1st or 2nd round pick if he had come out last year. News flash, NFL scouts watch tape too and they don't hold a drop by the WR against a QB who just hit them in the hands. And all the projections of Howell in the 1st or 2nd last year were made by the same guys who had Hutchinson as a lock to go first overall this year and a whole host of other misses in this year's draft.
All I'm saying is the expectations I am already seeing attached to Howell's name are a bit unrealistic. For every Tom Brady there are a hundred guys drafted in the bottom rounds whose whole NFL career is warming a chair in the QB room and running the scout team.
I have HOPES for Howell. I do not have expectations.
I like that the team took a flyer on a QB. I think they should do so yearly. Drafting him is clearly a flyer though. I have no expectations that he will ever develop beyond a serviceable #2. There is no evidence that I have seen to believe that he will end up being viewed as a masterstroke selection. There is nothing special or transformative about him based on his history. He was a good, small QB on an average college team. His ceiling is Taylor Heinicke with a better arm.
I'm sorry Chris that you think that way. You apparently didn't see him play much. This young man is much better than what you think. "A flyer, though" ... 2020 UNC had a better Oline, and 4 weapons who all were drafted. Ask Dyami Brown, yes, 1 of the four. 2021 was definitely a much harder year.
My issue is that people act like scouts for NFL clubs don't know and understand this. They absolutely do and it is taken into account. I mean, if fans can figure it out...
Drew Brees and Russell Wilson are comparatively sized QBs from similar quality programs. Short QBs almost never have great success these days in the NFL other than those two.
Maybe he performs at that level. Maybe the other 31 teams will rue the decision to pass on him up to the point he was selected. I very well could be wrong but I doubt it.
Maybe he performs at that level. Maybe the other 31 teams will rue the decision to pass on him up to the point he was selected. I very well could be wrong but I doubt it.
Anyone who’s counting on Howell to come in this season and lead the team to the playoffs needs to simma don nah. He’s a year away from starting, at the very minimum. More than likely 2.
His potential is directly tied to Zampese’s tutoring, along with Turner’s playcalling. Howell’s success, or failure, will be dependent on this staff’s development plan. Imho it was a great pick on a kid with an nfl ready arm, and to get that in the 5th is icing on the cake.
His potential is directly tied to Zampese’s tutoring, along with Turner’s playcalling. Howell’s success, or failure, will be dependent on this staff’s development plan. Imho it was a great pick on a kid with an nfl ready arm, and to get that in the 5th is icing on the cake.
First of all - had anyone even come close to saying Howell is the 2nd coming? I haven't seen that - other than from Chris Simms 
Secondly - the ‘scouts’ who presumably are primary movers in driving QB selection (except in DC where the owner thinks he knows better), are horribly wrong as often as they are right. Are they likely much better informed than the average fan or mock drafter? Of course. But better informed hasn’t resulted in anything close to infallibility when it comes to ranking QBs and predicting pro success.
And Neo, I wouldn’t be so sure that Heinicke is the default #2. Of course we have to assume that’s the case today. But if Howell comes in and looks like a real future potential starter, or even a capable backup, it’s quite possible he leapfrogs Taylor into the backup role. Unless Howell totally flops, he will be at minimum the backup going forward with Heinicke likely in his last season on Washington’s roster this year. I don’t believe they ‘took a flyer’ on Howell. They seem to think he’s got significant talent.
My prediction is that Wentz plays well this season and going forward, but that Howell sticks as the #2 and the team moves on from Heinicke who, lip service to the contrary, they clearly don’t have a lot of confidence in as a long-term contributor.
Secondly - the ‘scouts’ who presumably are primary movers in driving QB selection (except in DC where the owner thinks he knows better), are horribly wrong as often as they are right. Are they likely much better informed than the average fan or mock drafter? Of course. But better informed hasn’t resulted in anything close to infallibility when it comes to ranking QBs and predicting pro success.
And Neo, I wouldn’t be so sure that Heinicke is the default #2. Of course we have to assume that’s the case today. But if Howell comes in and looks like a real future potential starter, or even a capable backup, it’s quite possible he leapfrogs Taylor into the backup role. Unless Howell totally flops, he will be at minimum the backup going forward with Heinicke likely in his last season on Washington’s roster this year. I don’t believe they ‘took a flyer’ on Howell. They seem to think he’s got significant talent.
My prediction is that Wentz plays well this season and going forward, but that Howell sticks as the #2 and the team moves on from Heinicke who, lip service to the contrary, they clearly don’t have a lot of confidence in as a long-term contributor.
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Arguing about the backup QB is the most Washington football thing ever. 
I really think we're all *mostly* on the same page with the pick. He wasn't expected to be there in round 5, you have to view that as a very nice 'get' at that point in the draft. We don't know whether he is 2020 Howell or 2021 Howell and even if we thought we did - the truth is that college performance simply isn't a reliable predictor of NFL success. There is such a difference in how the game is played at the NFL level, and which 'talents' and abilities translate at the next level. We also frequently miss on the intangibles that sometimes result in guys like Russell Wilson getting completely missed.
I don't think anyone can completely discount the possibility that we just drated a future franchise QB. It's unlikely, but it's unlikely for all but a handful of picks one could ever make at that position. Odds are, he's just another guy. But that is far from a certainty at this point. And there's one guy who will ultimately determine that.... our 5th round pick.
I don't think anyone can completely discount the possibility that we just drated a future franchise QB. It's unlikely, but it's unlikely for all but a handful of picks one could ever make at that position. Odds are, he's just another guy. But that is far from a certainty at this point. And there's one guy who will ultimately determine that.... our 5th round pick.
Bulldog
The All-Time Great
Carson Wentz on a one year deal isn't exactly 'locking up' the qb position on the team.
I thought Washington overdrafted Dotson and Mathis, not that they aren't solid players, but in the case of Howell, what's the harm?
Heinicke and Wentz are both 29, might as well give this kid a chance to come in and develop.
I thought Washington overdrafted Dotson and Mathis, not that they aren't solid players, but in the case of Howell, what's the harm?
Heinicke and Wentz are both 29, might as well give this kid a chance to come in and develop.
He is on a 3-year deal that the team can get out of after 1 with no cap hit. Different animal.
And I don't think anyone said there was any harm in drafting Howell. Despite the fact that I started this thread, I am in favor of the team grabbing him where they did.
And I don't think anyone said there was any harm in drafting Howell. Despite the fact that I started this thread, I am in favor of the team grabbing him where they did.
DieselPwr44
The Owner's Favorite
Fans clamor for a young QB who doesn't have to be immediately thrown to the wolves the minute he gets here.
A guy who can sit and learn.
Rivera and Co. find a way to set that up and some still aren't happy.
As Waylon Jennings once said "Stop the world and let me off....."
A guy who can sit and learn.
Rivera and Co. find a way to set that up and some still aren't happy.
As Waylon Jennings once said "Stop the world and let me off....."
Who’s not happy? I honestly don’t see anyone complaining.
I’m not happy they didn’t take Hamilton, but they made up for it by hitting several needs.
I was specifically replying to DP about the round 5 QB pick. I haven’t seen any fan complaints here or even on social media.
