Random Commanders Thoughts

[Chris]

A chess vs checkers comparison.

 

[DieselPwr44]

 

[Chris]

View attachment 6428

Where is the ‘moxiness’ chart? 😉

 

[DixieFlatline]

Can you explain the two axis on that chart?

 

[Boone]

Ron Rivera is 4-7 coming off the bye for his career. That sucks folks. And I think it speaks to him not being much of a strategist and game planner.

 

[Primus Porcus]

Can you explain the two axis on that chart?

Lower axis - PFF Grade
Side axis - EPA (Expected Points Added) - For example.... 3rd and 3 vs 3rd and 10. - On 3rd and 3 Taylor scrambles for 6 yards resulting in a first down. This ADDS expected points because the drive is extended. The same scramble on 3rd and 10 DOES NOT ADD expected points because it's now 4th and 4 and you're likely punting. 1st and 10 and the QB throws an interception... this is a negative EPA because now expected points (however many were expected AT THAT TIME) are now removed.


To judge Taylor, he's just shy of scoring every point the metric expects he's going to score. Wentz as a contrast leaves roughly .09 points PER PLAY on the field. That's 9/100ths of a point. So at his particular rating, he leaves 9 points on the field for every 100 plays. He also technically leaves more points on the field, but the offense is rated higher according to PFF.

Top right are guys that are able to take situations where the offense is not expected to score points, and they do...

Here's a little run down of it

EPA Explained

The terms Expected Points (EP) and Expected Points Added (EPA) have become a large part of the football analytics discussion. This brief...

www.the33rdteam.com

 

[Boone]

I think seeing the guys Heinicke is clustered near is enlightening. And not in a good way.

 

[Boone]

 

[Henry]

I think seeing the guys Heinicke is clustered near is enlightening. And not in a good way.

If I'm reading this right, and I'd like to thing I am:

The guys he's clustered near on the Y axis (Z. Wilson, Flacco, Mayfield) are simply who the people at PFF equated him with at the beginning of the season.

The guys he's clustered near on the X axis (Trubisky, Pickett, M. Jones) are who he's been comparable to in terms of actual play.

In other words, he plays like a solid backup, which is what he is. Which is why the team needs to find a QB next year. If it's Howell, awesome. Give him some reps as soon as the playoff hunt is over and see what he's got.

 

[Boone]

Yep. He’s not close to producing as a viable starting QB.

 

[DieselPwr44]

Sheehan seems to think that if Heinicke hadn't tied the game in the 4th that Wentz would've been named the starter this week.

What says BGO?

 

[Kel Varnsen]

Sheehan seems to think that if Heinicke hadn't tied the game in the 4th that Wentz would've been named the starter this week.

What says BGO?

No. But now I know where the Wentz obsession is coming from, local radio guys. I guess it’s easier for them than discussing the actual game because that takes football knowledge. Wentz only plays because of injury or a turnover fest from Heinicke.

 

[Chris]

So the local radio guys have moved on from worshipping at the altar of Cousins?

 

[Boone]

Talking about the previous starter when the new starter is barely getting it done isn’t ‘obsessing’. Sheehan doesn’t want Wentz to play - I listened to that pod. He’s simply saying that Heinicke is on a lot tighter leash than fans believe. I don’t know if they’d have made a change if Heinicke doesn’t engineer that last drive but pretty sure the coaches see the same marginal QB play from Heinicke we do.

 

[Henry]

If the coaching staff thought Heinicke was a solid starter they wouldn’t have brought Wentz in in the first place. I don’t think Heinicke has done anything to change anyone’s evaluation of his abilities this season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to hear he’s on a short leash. That said, I think everything this team has done or will potentially do regarding Wentz is a big mistake.

 

[Neophyte]

Is he a world-beater? No.

Is he 5-1-1 as a starter? Yes, yes he is.

And he gets whatever leash that affords him in the NFL.

I don't know much but I do know there is no way we are 5-1-1 over the last 7 games with any other available QB under center.

Rivera knows it too.

 

[Boone]

If the coaching staff thought Heinicke was a solid starter they wouldn’t have brought Wentz in in the first place. I don’t think Heinicke has done anything to change anyone’s evaluation of his abilities this season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to hear he’s on a short leash. That said, I think everything this team has done or will potentially do regarding Wentz is a big mistake.

If you look at the numbers Heinicke’s production has dropped in 2022. I’ll avoid using the word ‘worse’ because I guess that depends on what you are looking to get out of him. But this years schedule has been nowhere near as daunting as 2021’s was, something to also keep in mind.

Pass Completions
2021: 65%
2022: 61.8%

Passing Yds
Averaging about the same this year as last.

TD %: no change
INT %: slightly improved (2.4 vs 3.0)
Yds/Attempt: no change
QB Rating: basically the same (86.3 vs 85.9)
Sack %: slightly improved (6.2 vs 7.1)

Just based on observation, there’s only one area I’ve seen major improvement in and that is Heinicke is getting rid of the ball more quickly than he did in 2021 and even throwing the ball away occasionally which he rarely if ever did in 2021. That probably accounts for the reduced sack numbers.

 

[burgold]

Completely out of the blue thought. Next year, would you go for a one-year Brady rental?

even though it’s my post, I don’t think I would primarily because I think he lacks the mobility to survive our online. I can imagine him being intrigued by playing withMcClaurin, Samuel, Dotson, and having a good two-headed rushing attack. But I think the cost,his declining play, and the fact that there’s no future with Brady would make him a bad play even as an unrestricted free agent.

Besides, Heinicke owns Brady. 🤣

 

[Primus Porcus]

Is he a world-beater? No.

Is he 5-1-1 as a starter? Yes, yes he is.

And he gets whatever leash that affords him in the NFL.

I don't know much but I do know there is no way we are 5-1-1 over the last 7 games with any other available QB under center.

Rivera knows it too.

Bob i think we both know that Heinicke is not 'responsible' for those 5 wins.

The team is winning with him at QB, undeniably.... but I don't think we're anywhere near as good as we can be with him back there. It's not all because of him, but I think there's a formula with this current roster that can be more effective than we're being right now. I do believe the fear is legitimate regarding a potential 'shoe dropping' regarding these dropped INTs and 'bounces going our way' can come back to haunt us quickly. We've won 5 games with a good bit of puck luck... if that luck runs out we may be in trouble... it hasn't been 5 games that we've completely controlled the game and walked away feeling like the dominant TEAM.

 

[DixieFlatline]

If you look at the numbers Heinicke’s production has dropped in 2022. I’ll avoid using the word ‘worse’ because I guess that depends on what you are looking to get out of him. But this years schedule has been nowhere near as daunting as 2021’s was, something to also keep in mind.

Pass Completions
2021: 65%
2022: 61.8%

TD %: no change
INT %: slightly improved (2.4 vs 3.0)
Yds/Attempt: no change
QB Rating: basically the same (86.3 vs 85.9)
Sack %: slightly improved (6.2 vs 7.1)

One big change, passing yards are way down.
2021: 3419 yds
2022: 1444 yds

Even if he reels off 300 games the rest of the way, he finishes the season well below 3000 yds and more realistically he probably finishes with 1,000 yds less than just a year ago.

Just based on observation, there’s only one area I’ve seen major improvement in and that is Heinicke is getting rid of the ball more quickly than he did in 2021 and even throwing the ball away occasionally which he rarely if ever did in 2021. That probably accounts for the reduced sack numbers.

Yeah, I'd say he's about the same overall with some slight improvements in an area or two.

Regarding passing yards, I think you need to break it down by game (16 games last year versus 7 this year). If you do that, it's about 213 yards per game last year to 206 this year. His average per pass is 6.8 last year to 6.8 this year. So I don't think it's that big a difference.