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Lies, Damn Lies and Stats

It is done.

Hog Fever

Vescere bracis meis
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I was in an argument with a guy at work who is a fan from another team that will remain nameless. He was trying to tell me how much progress our team had made in the last few years under Shanny. I told him that there were some things I liked about our progress and some things I didn’t. After our discussion i thought to myself; What better way to prove my point to him than with stats right? I thought I’d share them.

Stats don’t lie but they also don’t always tell the whole story. Keeping that in mind I started digging. I didn’t want to go back too far so I started with 2009. I thought 2009 was significant because it was the last Zorn year and would give us some kind of baseline. We went 4-12 and generally had a terrible season. We can all agree on that. The lone bright spot that year was the defense. It wasn’t dominant if memory serves, but it was pretty good. In fact it was ranked 10th overall for the season. The offense, on the other hand, was not good and finished 22nd overall. Honestly it was probably worse than that (told you stats can lie at times).

Shanny arrives in 2010 and brings with him Jim Haslett and his version of the 3-4 defense. The 3-4 didn’t fit the talent we had at that point but the 3-4 had worked other places for years so I, along with many others, was willing to let them take a shot. We all bit the bullet. It was worse than we thought and the defense took a big step back and nose dived to 31st overall that first year.

It’s interesting to look at the other teams at the bottom of the barrel with us in 2010 for the sake of comparison. Four of them are now top 10 defenses. Having a top ten defense doesn’t make you an automatic contender but it doesn’t hurt your chances to win ball games. Only Jacksonville and Washington have been consistently this low *sigh*.

Bottom 7 Defensive teams in 2010:

Den – 32nd
Was – 31st
Hou – 30th
AZ – 29th
Jac – 28th
Sea – 27th
Ten – 26th

Current Defensive rankings for the same seven team in 2013:


Den – 23rd
Was – 28th
Hou – 1st
AZ – 9th
Jac – 29th
Sea – 2nd
Ten – 10th

On the offensive side of the ball the first Shanny year saw very little progress. Betts and Portis ended up on the IR and the Campbell/Collins QB situation was nothing to get excited about and they finished 18th overall, statistically still better than I had thought.

After a couple of years wandering in the desert we got our QB and the offense came around almost immediately. We entered the top 5 for the first time in recent memory. This season we’re ranked 6th currently which is a lot better than I thought we would rank. You take into account that Robert was clearly not ready to start the season and all of the opportunities we’ve missed this season and that ranking becomes more remarkable. The fact that we’ve been so far behind in so many of these games has certainly figured into the numbers we’ve been able to put up.

Here are our Special Teams rankings for the last few years:

2009 – 23rd Last year of Mr. Swinging Gate
2010 – 25th
2011 – 21st
2012 – 28th
2013 – 32nd That’s DEAD LAST FOLKS

So what’s my point? Well, you hear coaches talking all the time about the “three phases of the game”. Statistically we’ve been getting smoked in two of the three phases year after year. While the offense has definitely improved with the addition of a QB and other pieces the defense and special teams couldn’t be worse. I guess technically the defense could be four places lower, but you get my point.

You simply cannot get by consistently with one working part of the machine. Most of us already know this and knew things weren’t good without seeing these numbers, but there were some specifics that were new to me. I still think Shanny’s future will depend on how the team finishes the rest of the season, but I think I’m changing my mind about the value of coaching continuity. If we were seeing any improvement at all I might have a different opinion.
 

Dead Money

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Well that made me feel better. I think. Anyway, nice job.
 

tshile

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Where is the ****ing light at the end of the tunnel? Was last year just a mirage............
Last year we had a qb and an offense no one was expecting. We had a rookie QB that threw 5 interceptions all year and lead the league in completion ratio. He was pin point accurate on every pass he made - didn't matter how far down the field.

We don't have that this year. Now all the rough parts of the team are showing through. Teams aren't afraid of Griffin this year; just the opposite, they're going after him, they're daring him to beat them. He can't.

He's broken. The good news is he's broken physically, not mentally. He's still the smart guy we drafted, he's still the hard worker, he's still the mature kid. He'll be back. In the meantime we need to take stock of the all the deficiencies and put a plan in place to get them fixed. I don't want Griffin to be the next P. Manning. A guy that carries his team all his career and manages 1 SB out of it. I want him to be like Brady, or better. A top flight QB that brings home multiple rings.
 

micks113

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Last year Griffin had world class speed and teams couldn't deal with that and that's what made our offense go. His completion percentage was a result of having to respect that speed so he could light them up with the pass. Now that is not the case, and I'm afraid he will never be that fast guy again. Add to that his propensity to get killed and crushed when he runs, and now he's getting crushed in the pocket. my friends, he will not have a long career, he's too small to survive it. In fact I see him having a rather short career. Next year will have to change my mind, if he shows something else with the brace off, but I kind of doubt that. We need to keep Cousins, he isn't worth trading because we will need him. And I expect with our record he should be playing soon, so as to lengthen Griff's career. No sense playing him once we are officially out of it, and that is now. We could win out and of course we already lose on any tiebreakers so we are done, time to play the young guys and see who is on next year's team. By my estimation, a major overhaul should be forthcoming, and i'm talking 50% of the current starters. Wouldn't hurt my feelings if we go with a young college coach, Briles or Sumlin, but dusting off the dinosaur coaches and putting them on the sidelines has gotten old.
 

KDawg

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There are a few things that we really haven't done since Dan Snyder's purchase of the team.

1) Hire a General Manager to run football operations. Bruce Allen is an excellent first step. Now we need a guy more suited for football operations. Allen has earned his keep and needs to remain, but he needs to have a guy that is in charge of personnel for the football operations.

2) Build the offensive line through the draft.

Our recent OL draftees:

2013: None
2012: LeRibeus (3rd), Gettis (5th), Compton (6th)
2011: Hurt (7th), Capers (7th)
2010: Williams (1st), Cook (7th)
2009: None
2008: Rinehart (3rd),
2007: None
2006: Lefotu (7th)
2005: None
2004: Wilson (5th), Molinaro (6th)
2003: Dockery (3rd)

In ten seasons/drafts we've:
-Spent four draft choices in the first three rounds on offensive linemen. LeRibeus may have been a reach, and was considered to possibly be at the time.
-We've drafted 12 OL in 10 drafts, with four years of no offensive line selections.
-The only high pick (1st OR 2nd) we've used on the OL is Trent Williams, and he is by far our only offensive lineman that isn't replaceable and is quite possibly the best football player on the Redskin roster.

The data is right there in front of our faces. We are not building the offensive line with quality youth, instead relying on free agents and retreads. There is a place for those additions to the line, but they should be supplementation, not the primary means to building your position group.

3) Build the defensive line through the draft.

Our recent DL draftees:

2013: None
2012: None
2011: Jenkins (2nd), Neild (7th)
2010: None
2009: None
2009 Supplemental: Jarmon

I'll stop there, because of the change in fronts it doesn't make sense to keep going with this practice. Even 2009 doesn't make much sense, but I figured I'd give an extra guy for the sake of it.

In the last five drafts:
-We've drafted TWO defensive linemen in the actual draft + Jarmon in the supplemental.
-Jenkins was drafted to play a DE, even though he might be best suited at nose.
-In the last two drafts, we haven't drafted a single defensive lineman.

Just for kicks, since 2010 we've drafted:
-TWO linemen (Jenkins/Williams) in the first two rounds.

You want to know the primary issue? We're so focused on the "skill" positions that we neglect the trenches. I don't care what era of football we're in, you have to have a solid core on the lines. Period. If your QB isn't protected, you're going to struggle. If your defensive front can't get a push, you're going to struggle.

Those are the three most glaring deficiencies to me through the last 14 football seasons.

For fun, I continued the DL exercise, regardless of defensive scheme:

2013: None
2012: None
2011: Jenkins (2nd)
2010: None
2009: None
2009 Supplemental: Jarmon
2008: Jackson (7th)
2007: None
2006: Montgomery (5th), Golston (6th)
2005: None
2004: None
2003: None
2002: Scott (7th)
2001: Monds (6th)
2000: Cowsette (7th)

Yikes.

8 DL in 13 years.

ZERO in the first.

One in the second.

None in the third (unless you count Jarmon)

None in the fourth.

One in the fifth.

Two in the sixth.

Three in the seventh.
 
Last edited:

Ax

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This years offense, with all it's shortcomings, could take us to the playoffs and beyond.

The problem is the defense. It's turrable. Poor line play. Average linebacking. Average CB's. And horrid, inexcusably non existent safety play.
And the special teams. Which don't exist.
 

Rymanofthenorth

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UTEP

you build from the front going backwards, not from the back seven going forwards.

You build your oline BEFORE you draft your franchise qb whose health depends on the Oline,

and for Kdawg Jenkins is not a nose type, he is an upfield 3tech who didnt have strong upper body but has great legs
 

KDawg

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you build from the front going backwards, not from the back seven going forwards.

You build your oline BEFORE you draft your franchise qb whose health depends on the Oline,

and for Kdawg Jenkins is not a nose type, he is an upfield 3tech who didnt have strong upper body but has great legs
For the record, I didn't say he was a nose. I said he might be best suited for a nose versus the 5-technique/end.
 

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