My view on all this is...
Stats tell a story but need to be taken as a part of a larger picture and it's only when you look at the whole, both the gaudy statistics and the eye test that you get the complete overview.
For me the stats tell a story that Kirk is in top tier of QB's. The eye test says he's not. To me he's in Tier 2.
For me personally I've also liked the way his game has grown and improved over the past couple of years since he was given the starting job. His completion percentage is good, he's cut down his turnovers, he looks calmer in the pocket to me and steps into pressure better. He distributes the ball well and can hit all the throws long and short.
Now it helps alot that the Skins have an offense built around him, to maximise his potential. You could say that that is why he's putting up the gaudy stats and you'd be right. But isn't that how all the best teams SHOULD be building their teams? Building to maximise the effectiveness of their QB's strengths.
I think I'm realistic on Kirk. He's not the second coming of Tom Brady. But he's also not the second coming of RGIII. He's a very very competent QB who despite his age and years in the NFL is still in the early days of his career. I also think he's shown the capability to learn and grow, something that RGIII didn't and many QB's don't.
In the two years he's been our starting QB we've gone 17-16-1 which is a good sight better than we're used to over the past two decades or more. I feel this is something we should build on, not tear down.
So here's the rub.
Look around the league, there's a massive shortage of competent QB's and this years draft isn't stocked with great prospects. Trubisky is probably the best in the draft and he's ranked as the 32nd best player in the draft over on ESPN. You can bet he'll go much higher than his ranking. The demand is far higher this year than the supply.
Everything that's played out currently is pretty much exactly what I expected. Kirk has no rush to sign as he has all the leverage at the moment.
So to try and swing the balance a little the Skins had to tag him. Firstly it keeps him off the market so he can't establish a price for his services by negotiating with another team. Secondly it keeps him in house for another year and next year everything could change. Those teams that need QB's this year, they could sign or draft one of the other options. Romo, Cutler, Garoppolo, Mike Glennon, Colin Kapernick... even Tyrod Taylor might be in the mix. For every one that signs somewhere, that takes an option off the table for Kirk. In 2018 the options for Kirk could be drastically reduced. That could play into the Skins hands especially if Kirk has a bad year. That's Kirk's risk on not signing a long term deal... what does the picture look like in 2018? How does he perform this year?
As for trades... does Kirk really want that? He'd have to think carefully about it. The San Fran connection is all about Kyle, but that team is a mess. Sure Kyle can try and put in a West Coast type offence that could suit Kirk, but with what pieces? Does Kirk really think he'll have the kind of success he's had here behind our O-line and with our receiving corps? Is it just the money he's after? He's never struck me as someone who just chases the dollar, I think he want's success too. Where else could he go and succeed? The Browns?
As for those draft picks we'd get from San Fran... Well Cleveland are going number 1, so they'll take Trubisky who as I said is ranked as the 32nd best player in the draft... So that leaves us with who? DeShaun Watson maybe? There's not, to my eye anyway, a standout QB in this draft. When you look at draft picks the question has to be... "Is who we'll pick going to be a better option for this team than the person we have?"
Watson might be cheaper, might even be good... but is it worth rolling the dice? Are we going to look fools if we draft the next RGIII or Kapernick while San Fran goes to the playoffs behind an ever improving Kirk Cousins?
Because I think that's a very strong possibility if we trade him.
As for his cost in a long term deal. The raw numbers don't matter. It's the percentage of the cap he'll take up that does. What looks like a large percentage now, is going to look very reasonable in a few years time with the projected rise in the salary cap. Plus other QB's will sign mega deals and by 2020 any deal Kirk gets would look pretty reasonable.
Whether Kirk stays or goes comes down, in my mind, to one thing... Is the Front Office committed to build on what we have or tear it down and start over.
If we're committed to building on the past two years we should do what it takes to get Kirk locked up, we should look at Doctson and see if we need to try and retain Garcon (I think Jackson is gone either way). We hit free agency to pick up some key Offensive additions and we draft for Defence. This is a pretty deep draft for the Defence, we could get some good young talent that could grow with this team together over the next few years if we're lucky.
With Kirk a consistent presence under centre, with our O-line gelling together, two young receivers in Crowder and Doctson plus Reed and a few good vets (Davis for one) we're in good shape on O going forwards, even if Garcon and DJax leave. Just need a good running back, maybe see what Kelly has, maybe give Jones another run at it.
Give us a consistent offence and a young up and coming and improving Defence and we could see something special building in Washington. The blocks are there...
If they trade Kirk... I see that as a signal of a tear down and rebuild. Because they'll let Garcon and Jackson walk too and then we're stuck building around what? Reed, Crowder and a pretty good O-line. That's about it. Without a competent trigger man I think we're slipping back from even our current position.
Personally I think it boils down to this... There is a sad lack of even competent QB's in this league.... we have one of them. Been a while since we've had one in this town and if our Front Office decide to let him go for the fools gold of draft picks then we're in trouble.
Despite all the pessimism and the trade rumours etc coming out of the media... I still think a deal gets done.
I think we'll be horrified at the cost... but in a few years time we won't worry about it. I'd rather see this team build on the foundation they've put down. I'm not that worried about the salary situation right now and if the cap continues to rise might never need to be. Especially if we can improve the D through the draft and get a nice core of young players there for cheap.
My tuppence for what it's worth.
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