Tandler cautions about nothing being certain but
read on why Kirk might be different
I read this article... I would've expected more from Tandler, really... There are reasons to think Cousins isn't the next Kolb, Foles or Cassel, but he probably will be if he goes to a new team and a new offense. We basically saw the best and "almost-worst" of Kirk Cousins in this last season (his worst was final 3 games of 2013 and NYG of 2014). He was a mediocre QB at best for the first 7.5 games of the season, and looked bad-to-average in every game against good competition. I think Tandler was really half-asleep when writing this piece.
Anyway, as for Kirk Cousins, there was a lot of improvement and he could very well be our QB for the long-haul. However, it's time to really find out what the Redskins think of Kirk & what he thinks of the Redskins. Here are the scenarios that I layed out a while ago:
1) If Kirk does nothing in negotiations, then the Redskins' options are:
a) Franchise tag him with exclusive designation (~$24M this year... if they franchise tag him again the following year, it will be ~$28M). The own his rights exclusively and no other team can negotiate with him. He can work out a long term deal or sign the FT.
b_ Franchise tag him with non-exclusive designation... Same money, but other teams can negotiate with him and Redskins would be able to choose between letting Kirk walk and receiving draft compensation from team that signs Kirk.
c. Transition tag him... ~$22M and other teams get to negotiate with Kirk. Redskins get to choose to match (franchise or transition) or let him go to other team, no compensation received by Redskins if they let him walk.
d. Let him hit the open market and try to work a deal... Redskins would have to beat the market here.
2) Kirk's Agent will likely negotiate based on the Franchise tag. Kirk will likely sign for no less than $24M guaranteed in the 1st year of his contract. The agent will argue that in order to retain him for 2 years, the Redskins might have to franchise him twice which would push his guaranteed salary to $52M over the 1st 2 years of his contract.
If the Redskins sign a deal with Kirk Cousins, the guaranteed money in the 1st 2 years of the contract will likely be somewhere in between $24M & $52M...
What I think happens might be interesting here... I've been saying for a while that I would Franchise tag Kirk Cousins and then try to work a sensible deal and see how much he is committed to being the QB of this team long term. However, I think it's likely that the Redskins will NOT Franchise tag Kirk Cousins... They probably should offer the Andy Dalton deal and see if Kirk & Agent bite (Andy Dalton is 6-year and $96M, but only like $17M guaranteed). That is a respectable QB deal and one that won't get laughed at. Kirk will not sign that deal while the FT is an option. There is a period of a few days prior to free agency that players can negotiate with other teams. This is probably where Kirk's "open-market" value will be determined. Of course, his agent is probably going to be well-aware of his value on the open market.
The Redskins risk losing Kirk Cousins this way, but the deal that Kirk Cousins gets may be less than say an Andy Dalton deal & the Redskins should swoop in on anything less than Andy Dalton...
Again, one thing about the Dalton deal... It was similar to the Nick Foles & Colin Kaepernick deals... There was one year left for Dalton to play on his rookie deal, so the team held the upper-hand. Cousins has the upper-hand until his open-market value is determined.
Anyway, this is going to be interesting... We'll really see how the Redskins feel about Cousins & Cousins feels about the team.
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