Heresy or Foresight? - The J.J. McCarthy Thread

[Boone]

Some team is going to get a jewel. More than some teams are going to be kicking themselves in hindsight.

Certainly possible. But QB predictions make a lot of smart people look silly. We are all at risk.

 

[Chris]

FTR- I’m not saying he will be the the pick at #2. It ’appears’ that is highly unlikely according to all of the experts armed with their inside information and sources 😉.

I’m saying he should be the pick at #2.

 

[Chris]

My final post prior to the draft is a copy and paste of a previous post I made 11 days ago-

I have tried my best to be agnostic to this point on the prospects because I wanted to take the time to absorb and digest every shred of information that I could find and I didn’t want to shoot my shot prematurely. I have been afraid to make any broad declarations that I didn’t believe I could stand behind and comfortably live with fin the years to come. But, I’m ready to now.

Along the way, over the past couple of months I have watched 3-4 full games of each JD, DM, and JM (alphabetical order). Here is where I have landed:

Jayden Daniels- everything I would like in a QB prospect minus the body type. And that is not a small concern, I honestly fear for his life at the next level. The simple fact that despite his devil may care attitude, he did successfully navigate a very physically demanding level of college competition. Competition that week in and week out most closely mirrors that of the NFL even though, of course, not that of the NFL. To anyone that wants to label him a one-year wonder, I simply offer you Joe Burrows.

Drake Maye- Prototypical size, bionic arm, all-around solid citizen. Sounds good, right? I love all those things but I greatly prefer that they come along with a proven ability to, you know, having better than average throwing ability. When needing a sniper I would rather have one that more than regularly can hit the target rather than the one with the most powerful rifle. Maye has not been impressive playing the position against a considerably lower caliber of opposing talent. He played ACC football not ACC basketball. I look at his teams success during the meat of the college season (the back 1/3) and am not even close to impressed. In ‘22, when he had a better level of surrounding talent and was being touted as a consensus top 2 QB, NC finished that season 0-4. In ‘23, it was 1-3 with the 1 win coming against powerhouse Duke by 2 pts in double OT. We is widely considered to have considerable issues with his throwing stroke, footwork, and short-area accuracy. I also see a higher level of panic in his play under pressure and an innate tendency to move his way toward pressure rather away from it. Bottom line for me is that he could become very good if a team is patient with his development and can coach those things up. But, to me, that is far too big of an if. He does look good in a uniform though.

JJ McCarthy- ok, here is where I will lose the majority of you. He has all of the desirable physical attributes; he is tall, athletic, and has a strong arm. To me he is also the cream of the crop from the neck up of all of the top QB prospects including Caleb Williams. He admittedly was not asked to put Michigan on his shoulders and carry them to victory. He also doesn’t have the volume of throws that the others do, (he clearly needs to become a better play caller). But when faced with an important 3rd and long he produced. He is an alpha-level leader, he is an alpha- level competitor, and he is a winner. He flourished under NFL level coaching in an NFL scheme. Though it would be sacrilegious to tag him with a Brady comparison, compare their mental makeup, their physical attributes, and their on-field statistics while in college and tell me I’m crazy. I dare you. 😉

All that said, my final rankings are:

1. JJ McCarthy
2. Jayden Daniels
3. Drake Maye
No legitimate, successful, franchise QB has ever been over-drafted in the history of the league.

 

[Enforcer]

On that show he does with Smoot and 'Tana, Logan Paulsen said he would take JJ at 2. 👀

 

[Om]

Hmm. I'm a Logan Paulsen fan, but I do have to point out that over the past few weeks he has now had Daniels, Maye and McCarthy as his pick at #2.

Is it Thursday yet?

 

[burgold]

If he we drafted all three with one pick that would be a coup.

The only downside would be if we scheduled a draft party at a golf course.

 

[Primus Porcus]

There’s no way. Might be Drake Maye, but I don’t think McCarthy is a possibility.

I didn't say I would bet on it.

I will say, that we've ALL talked about it before. If they're convinced McCarthy is the guy, then pick number be damned, you take the guy. We all may say it's crazy, but if he's the guy they're convinced is the future, no price is too much.

In addition to that, I do think there is a lot of critique with the mock draft simulator world. I fall victim to it myself. Taking a guy at 25 that is 'rated' at 45, is considered a massive reach, when in reality the gap between those two may not be '20' players, it's just how the mock drafts have shaken out. Player rankings don't take into account fit / scheme / locker room chemistry type things. An agile LT may be a better fit for a team that runs a west coast / screen game, while a Mauler left tackle has the better 'ranking,' but can't be nearly as effective within the game plan.

NOBODY views Brock Purdy as Mr Irrelevent anymore, despite his draft status. Now obviously I'm not saying wait until the 7th round at all, but the thought process is... IF HE'S THE GUY DRAFT STATUS BE DAMNED. If there is one thing we can say, this front office and coaching staff is very calculated. I don't think it's an accident the moves they made. It wasn't reactionary.

3 years ago, people were laughing at Dan Campbell as he stood at the podium talking about biting people's knee caps off as they pick themselves up off the dirt.

Detroit then went on to trade Matt Stafford for Jared Goff and a host of picks. At the time, Goff was widely assumed to be a 'throw away addition to get the deal done.'

Then look at the 2023 draft.

Jahmyr Gibbs - widely considered to be way over-drafted at the time. Bijan Robinson was the ONLY RB even spoken about in the first round.

Jack Campbell -
Draft Buzz had him graded as a 'late' 1st round pick.
NFL.com had him rated at 6.20 (eventual nfl starter).
Bleacher report - 27th overall - "Potential Impact Player

Sam LaPorta - A guy we liked, but wasn't mocked at 34th overall if i'm remembering correctly
NFL.com - Graded LaPorta at 6.18 (Good Backup With The Potential To Develop Into Starter)
Pro Football Network -

NFL Draft Buzz - 3rd round grade.

Judging by the pre-draft rankings, these guys were all overdrafted, but looking back, nobody is really questioning the choices. Nobody is saying, well you could have had Gibbs at 18 instead of 12, or Laporta at 45 instead of Brian Branch, who is also a stud by the way.

 

[Boone]

I think when you are talking about QB with the 2nd pick in the draft, GMs are very likely to follow the data because their jobs rely on it.

I know that Chris has provided some data that supports JJ McCarthy being a very promising NFL QB but overall the data and almost every NFL ‘expert’ puts Daniels and Maye a tier above McCarthy.

Yes. Anything can happen. And yes, conventional wisdom about any player is often wrong. But the pick will be data-driven and I think that means McCarthy is very unlikely to be the pick.

 

[Primus Porcus]

no argument from me... it's just my gut. i've got no real evidence to argue the contrary.

 

[Bulldog]

Chris is right that over time we have seen quarterbacks from Joe Montana to Tom Brady fall in the draft due to either a limited volume of snaps or the perception they had adequate but not great arms.

Meanwhile, we have seen hulking players like Jamarcus Russell, Dan McGwire, Sam Darnold and others drafted because they could throw the ball a mile but lacked the football IQ, emotional intelligence or work ethic to translate their skills to the next level.

To me JJ McCarthy is going to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. My concern is where in that starting 32 ranking he ultimately falls.

Is he top 20? top 15?

If he is top 10 and you take him at #11 or #12 that's a bargain.

But if he is at or just outside of 15 then taking him #2 overall is not a value selection.

I wonder if Peters has him rated as a top 5 player and doesn't see any issues re value?

 

[Boone]

no argument from me... it's just my gut. i've got no real evidence to argue the contrary.

And quite possible you’ll look like a genius in 34 hours

 

[Bulldog]

#2 is important of course but Washington in that spot has its choice of the entire field.

To me this draft starts in a way with pick #36 and moves through those first selections through the end of Day 2.

If Daniels or other is supported by the selection of a group of young prospects that shore up OT, CB, WR and TE then 2024 will be remembered as a great draft.

But if we get the quarterback and fail to surround him with much out of all of these high picks, I would have to look a bit askance at Peters.

 

[Boone]

Off topic for this thread but my biggest concern is our giving up picks to trade up for an OT if there is a run on them. I don’t think this is a draft where you want to give away picks but we have put ourselves in a position where we may have to since we haven’t addressed that OT spot prior to the draft.

 

[Primus Porcus]

And quite possible you’ll look like a genius in 34 hours

to be fair, not just me... and not quite genius. It's a gut feeling that its what they do, not what they 'should' do.

I will say I've continued to cool on Jayden and where I think his career is going to go.... Maye and McCarthy have my interest, but the gaps in McCarthy are there. I dont 'know' that he's lacking somewhere, i just know we haven't seen a lot. If he is what we've seen, i have major concerns.

If there's more that we havent seen.... he could be really freakin good.

 

[Boone]

He doesn’t have the arm talent of the top 3 guys imho. I think that’s very evident. Om and I watched the ‘every down’ videos for Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy this weekend and felt there was a bigger gap between Maye/Daniels and McCarthy than between Maye and Daniels. McCarthy has talent, but he doesn’t have the arm of the other two. My opinion.

 

[Primus Porcus]

I'm going to say this, not to be argumentative... just as an example.

Haskins had an elite arm
Howell was Taylor Heinike with an elite arm

Physically speaking, Jayden Daniels is the slam dunk, the guy you take.

I guess the question I have is not how is McCarthy's arm in relation to those two... but does McCarthy have an NFL arm in your opinion. Is there ENOUGH there?


The WR that runs a 4.3 40 yard dash doesn't always work, and is often out-played by the guy who runs a 4.6, while the measurables are viewed as being VERY different. A WR that runs a 4.6 is almost frowned upon anymore, but there are examples EVERYWHERE where 4.6 guys VASTLY outproduce the 4.3 guy. When we watch the side by side at the combine it's a stark comparison, when in reality, it's .3 of a second across 40 yards. Almost immeasurable by the human brain.

Heinicke's arm is a liability long term. Is McCarthy's?

 

[Boone]

Haskins had a strong arm - that’s quite different from being an elite passer. Daniel’s arm strength is just ‘pretty good’ but his mechanics and accuracy are very, very good. I think McCarthy has a good arm. He’s also very decisive. I haven’t seen enough to feel confident he’s an NFL starter level passer. I do feel that way about Maye and Daniels.

Again doesn’t mean I’m right or that McCarthy can’t develop to that level. I just see a pretty significant drop off in current passing ability when I watch him compared to the others.

 

[Chris]

For Canadian Hog-

 

[Bulldog]

McCarthy admittedly seems to be the draft prospect that won’t go away 🤣

He’s a really difficult player to gauge where he will be in two years.

He could make most draftniks on national media look stupid or confirm he was the perfect fit for Michigan in 2023.

 

[Chris]

I'm going to say this, not to be argumentative... just as an example.

Haskins had an elite arm
Howell was Taylor Heinike with an elite arm

Physically speaking, Jayden Daniels is the slam dunk, the guy you take.

I guess the question I have is not how is McCarthy's arm in relation to those two... but does McCarthy have an NFL arm in your opinion. Is there ENOUGH there?


The WR that runs a 4.3 40 yard dash doesn't always work, and is often out-played by the guy who runs a 4.6, while the measurables are viewed as being VERY different. A WR that runs a 4.6 is almost frowned upon anymore, but there are examples EVERYWHERE where 4.6 guys VASTLY outproduce the 4.3 guy. When we watch the side by side at the combine it's a stark comparison, when in reality, it's .3 of a second across 40 yards. Almost immeasurable by the human brain.

Heinicke's arm is a liability long term. Is McCarthy's?

I’m not sure how good or accurate it is as a measurement but at the combine McCarthy clocked 61 mph on the velocity test. Joe Milton, who is widely considered to have a howitzer, clocked 62 mph.

The most prevalent concerns I have heard have revolved around his ability to vary his throws beyond the fast ball. I honestly have no idea where the questions about his arm have come from.