Grade Our 2012 Draft

[fansince62]

I am not going to grade the entire draft, there were a couple players in certain positions I would rather have seen chosen, Jimbo hit on one of them...JMJ from Nevada over Keenan Robinson. And I had Adam gettis in the mock, but decided against him because of his size, I though Joe Looney from GT would have been the pick there. But Gettis ran the 40 in 4.8 at 293 pounds!

The one player I want to concentrate on is the one player you all seem so angry about Kirk Cousins. I gotta say I like the pick. He offers us a chance to have a quality backup to RG3 and one that the entire offense does not have to be adjusted if RG3 goes down for a game or 2. This year if Rex goes in, we are going to have to make some major adjustments for the tub-o-lard. Also, like Boone has mentioned, if given an opportunity to fill in for RG3 a few times and turns out like Schaub or Flynn, there could be a market for him after his services here have run their course. If nothing else, he should be a quality backup for years to come. It was reported Shanahan spent lot of time with the kid during the Senior Bowl.

Yeah, we need players in other places, however I don't think we get Cousins if there is no trade with Pittsburgh in that round. I think this is a good pick.

ok...you're starting to make sense to me on Cousins!

 

[fansince62]

That friggin cap hit really, really hurt. and it will next year as well if it keeps.

I give it a B. A+++++++++ for RGIII.........A- when viewed from the play action perspective......C- from other perspectives. so a non-mathematical, totally arbitrary B.

 

[redskins76]

without rg3 ...looks like a C+ , i mean we could of got massie , z sanders , polk, or even gannaway either of those 2 backs would 've been a good change up for helu or royster in the back field , gannaway would've made more sense then alfred..the dude had 21 tds this year ,thats more then all are backs in the last five years ! i guess we shall see...:eclipsee_Victoria:

 

[Neophyte]

I find it interesting that we fans cling to draft grades for players handed out by people who have largely never been in the business of evaluating football talent. I spent yesterday watching the draft on BGO from my phone and the number of people agonizing over the highly rated players the Skins could have had but didn't draft in favor of "less rated" guys amazed me.

What didn't seem to be appreciated at all is that it was not the Redskins letting supposed 2nd round talent slide down into the 4th or 5th round (or go undrafted as the case of Minnefield). It was all 32 teams and often it was all 32 teams more than once.

Stop and think about that for a minute and then consider how much stock you want to put into the player ratings of Mel Kiper or Walter football or maybe even Mike Mayock (my personal favorite of all the talent evaluators out there). These guys are guessing. Period. And at the end of the day they don't know and we saw the proof of that this week.

 

[fansince62]

I find it interesting that we fans cling to draft grades for players handed out by people who have largely never been in the business of evaluating football talent. I spent yesterday watching the draft on BGO from my phone and the number of people agonizing over the highly rated players the Skins could have had but didn't draft in favor of "less rated" guys amazed me.

What didn't seem to be appreciated at all is that it was not the Redskins letting supposed 2nd round talent slide down into the 4th or 5th round (or go undrafted as the case of Minnefield). It was all 32 teams and often it was all 32 teams more than once.

Stop and think about that for a minute and then consider how much stock you want to put into the player ratings of Mel Kieper or Walter football or maybe even Mike Mayock (my personal favorite of all the talent evaluators out there). These guys are guessing. Period. And at the end of the day they don't know and we saw the proof of that this week.

they aren't just guessing. there's a measurable difference in the sort of draft decisions that were being made 30 years ago and those being made in today's computerized, combine/pro day, personal interview, medically examined up the ying yang days. There's data and there's some science behind all of this. And, oh btw, when you listen to those guys or Gil Brandt, they're all talking behind the scenes to various insiders on the teams.

perhaps what you meant to say was that given the vagaries of human nature and pure luck/misfortune (e.g., injuries) it's still a decision process qualified by uncertainty. but I don't buy into your assertion one iota that it's all just a multi-million dollar throw-away industry. I also don't buy into the notion that all 32 teams not drafting some player somehow tempers any thoughts about the redskins doing the same - for that to fly all 32 teams must have the same strategy/scheme/other parameters driving their decision processes. team criteria may overlap...but there is still going to be a high degree of variance.

as a final thought.....many of the talking heads (not all) were actually players who participated in the process. or, like Gil Brandt, they actually ran that end of the business. they may or may not be good "predictors"...but they do have something none of us have: experience on the inside. I wouldn't be so quick to discount the service provided. how many Div I, II, III teams are there? How many players does this equate to? the football draft weather guessers are providing a service to the fans. it's up to the fans to decide where quality resides and so cross check sources against one another. I do believe your complaint is with how fans are using the information (specifically the emotional reaction).

one can wonder what the other options might be. ignore all the inputs? don't think about the possibilities? or might it be to use the inputs and expand by putting the information in context and doing some personal homework. it's the information age bubba.......how the information is used remains a personal responsibility.

 

[Neophyte]

they aren't just guessing. there's a measurable difference in the sort of draft decisions that were being made 30 years ago and those being made in today's computerized, combine/pro day, personal interview, medically examined up the ying yang days. There's data and there's some science behind all of this. And, oh btw, when you listen to those guys or Gil Brandt, they're all talking behind the scenes to various insiders on the teams.

Gil Brandt has some street cred. He did the job once upon a time. Mel and guys at Walter football, not so much. And sure, all the measureable data is available at the touch of a button today which wasn't true 30 years ago but there is still a lot of subjective things that go into this process that measureables have nothing to do with.

perhaps what you meant to say was that given the vagaries of human nature and pure luck/misfortune (e.g., injuries) it's still a decision process qualified by uncertainty. but I don't buy into your assertion one iota that it's all just a multi-million dollar throw-away industry. I also don't buy into the notion that all 32 teams not drafting some player somehow tempers any thoughts about the redskins doing the same - for that to fly all 32 teams must have the same strategy/scheme/other parameters driving their decision processes. team criteria may overlap...but there is still going to be a high degree of variance.

I said exactly what I meant, fs. Honest.

And I can't see how all 32 teams passing repeatedly on a guy doesn't indicate that the draftniks got it wrong. That means that no matter what "system" a guy projects to fit into well, a team running that "system" passed on him. I will grant you that sometimes everyone misses, as in the case of Tom Brady. But it appears to me that the amateurs miss projecting guys to go high than NFL teams miss with not drafting a great talent till late (if that makes sense).

as a final thought.....many of the talking heads (not all) were actually players who participated in the process. or, like Gil Brandt, they actually ran that end of the business. they may or may not be good "predictors"...but they do have something none of us have: experience on the inside. I wouldn't be so quick to discount the service provided. how many Div I, II, III teams are there? How many players does this equate to? the football draft weather guessers are providing a service to the fans. it's up to the fans to decide where quality resides and so cross check sources against one another. I do believe your complaint is with how fans are using the information (specifically the emotional reaction).

I didn't go after all the talking heads together. Rather I was pretty much focused on the guys are supposed "draft experts" like Mel Kiper or Walter football. What do I care where either of those sources have a guy rated? Seriously? If they were all that and a bag of chips, do you not think some team would have approached them about a job by now?

one can wonder what the other options might be. ignore all the inputs? don't think about the possibilities? or might it be to use the inputs and expand by putting the information in context and doing some personal homework. it's the information age bubba.......how the information is used remains a personal responsibility.

Exactly. And my point is that all the so called "draft experts" out there don't view that information the same way the NFL does, which then in turn colors how we fans view what our team did on draft day. How irked with the Skins 3rd round pick would guys be if he weren't ranked so low by Walter football? That is were most of the negative feelings about the kid seemed to come from Friday night.

My point is, when will we learn that just because someone says it on the internet doesn't make it true?

 

[fansince62]

disagree.

THEY'RE ALL TALKING TO THE NFL GUYS. where do you think a lot of their info comes from?

you're missing my point. THERE'S A PROCESS IN PLAY. there's theory and hypothesis behind all of this. it's not dart throwing like you are trying to argue.

you don't like how fans are using the information to respond to team decisions. in particular...you obviously don't care for the emotional overtones. that is entirely within the realm of acceptability. just don't throw these binary assertions at the wall (it's all just guesswork so don't react) and expect it to stick.

truth is an interesting concept. but that's not what's in play here. a decision is being made. the decision process has inputs. the inputs are often subjective. the values can actually fall into a range. the decision is inherently risky. the process operates to reduce risk. it has...over the course of the last 30 years...emphatically done that.

given the availability of broadcast communications...the fans now get to see a lot more of that process than they did even 15 years ago. this is a great thing! what is your objective here? questioning the science behind draft predictions or controlling the reactions of fans when outcomes don't square with predictions? seems to me...if your problem is with the predictive process...then the proper COA is to make recommendations on how it might be improved...or how fans assume some burden for thinking through the analysis they are handed (from folks who save fans a whole lotta money and time by doing a lot of the leg work).

but I do agree. I can't recall the number of times fans have manifested man crushes or positive outlooks on marginal players with no chance based on a few pieces of data like 40 yards dash speed or temperment (shelvish anyone?). but the burden is no the fans to to do their own thinking with the huge wealth of data/analysis that is now at their disposal to use - very often free of charge. the availability of the information and analysis from the Kipers and Brandts of the world is awesome! a lot of it is very good. it is never, ever going to be perfect. but it can continually improve.

and...yes...I'm making an unstated assumption here that much of what the predictors are doing parallels what the teams are doing (from a process pov). there's a delta, obviously, but it continues to narrow over time. and, inherent to any predictive process, accounting for the dynamics of events that involve humans is inherently a very, very difficult problem. this sort of modeling is going on as we speak in a whole lot of areas....with equally suspect results (network attacks anyone?)...but which does improve over time.

 

[CounterTrey]

I think the problem here is people forget who is drafting here and for what system. Go watch Shanny's PC from last night. if you believe him it should make you feel as confident about things as it did me. He's THRILLED. The linemen...they got ALL 3 that they targeted pre-draft. Cousins, they couldn't believe was still available and they couldn't pass him up. Shanny was evidently VERY impressed with the kid. That's enough for me. I think if Shanny wasn't just spinning things in that PC that we should be very happy with this draft and FA considering the NFL penalty.

We're drafting for ZBS on O and our teams grades on linemen are going to vary signifcantly from the rest of the NFL NOT using the ZBS. I also think people are missing how good the Cousins pick is for our O's security if Griff goes down at all (very likely in today's NFL, you need 2 good QB's not just one).

 

[Neophyte]

fs, SOME of these guys are talking to NFL people. SOME.

Sure, the Mike Mayocks and Michael Lombaris of the world have connections and get some insider information. Some of these guys can do the job too, or have done the job as is the case with Lombari and Brandt.

I can't find any indication that the folks at Walter Football are anymore qualified to do this than you or I. Mel Kiper is the ultimate draftnik who has managed to parley a love of the draft into a job but at the end of the day he has never made a dime evaluating talent for an NFL team. The difference between his opinion and yours is that he has suckered someone into paying him to do it.

Something else to remember is that the NFL uses these guys worse then governments used cold war spies. The misinformation is reportedly thicker than the real information.

You are confusing how I view the establishment with the establishment watchers. You are right, there is a system in place to reduce risk in this and it has done that over the last 20 or 30 years. That system is the one populated by the professional scouts and front office men of the NFL, the establishment. And yet we the fans place equal, and sometimes more, weight on the establishment watchers. Men like Mel Kiper who have never done the job and who don't have any skin in the game if they miss.

Example - From what I read, he had Massie rated as a 2nd round prospect yet Massie wasn't drafted till the 4th round. In that time, pretty much every single team passed on him at least once and most of them twice. Instead of the fans wondering why Kiper had this kid rated so high, they all seem to wonder why their team passed on such a highly rated prospect. Apparently the idea that the pros might see this kid has a 4th rounder, not a 2nd rounder hasn't occurred to anyone and all because the great Mel Kiper said he was a 2nd rounder.

Nope, sorry. From where I sit, the system works fine if we are talking about the NFL draft evaluation process. The media stuff seems equal parts good stuff and the fans feeding the bears in the park.

 

[CounterTrey]

I've always thought Kiper et all were blowhard windbags. I'll NEVER forget the draft in 1994 when Tobin was sipping a cocktail in set at ESPN when Kiper's rant about the colts came up. Tobin went off in studio and then went off in his post draft PC. He looked a little unhinged but he had a hell of a point and his in studio smackdown was literally the best I've EVER seen.

This was from the studio rant:

"Who in the hell is Mel Kiper, anyway? I mean, here's a guy who criticizes everybody, whoever they take. In my knowledge of him, he's never even put on a jockstrap, he's never been a player, he's never been a coach, he's never been a scout, he's never been an administrator, and all of a sudden, he's an expert. Mel Kiper has no more credentials to do what he's doing than my neighbor, and my neighbor's a postman and he doesn't even have season tickets to the NFL."

 

[fansince62]

fs, SOME of these guys are talking to NFL people. SOME.

Sure, the Mike Mayocks and Michael Lombaris of the world have connections and get some insider information. Some of these guys can do the job too, or have done the job as is the case with Lombari and Brandt.

I can't find any indication that the folks at Walter Football are anymore qualified to do this than you or I. Mel Kieper is the ultimate draftnik who has managed to parley a love of the draft into a job but at the end of the day he has never made a dime evaluating talent for an NFL team. The difference between his opinion and yours is that he has suckered someone into paying him to do it.

Something else to remember is that the NFL uses these guys worse then governments used cold war spies. The misinformation is reportedly thicker than the real information.

You are confusing how I view the establishment with the establishment watchers. You are right, there is a system in place to reduce risk in this and it has done that over the last 20 or 30 years. That system is the one populated by the professional scouts and front office men of the NFL, the establishment. And yet we the fans place equal, and sometimes more, weight on the establishment watchers. Men like Mel Kieper who have never done the job and who don't have any skin in the game if they miss.

Example - From what I read, he had Massie rated as a 2nd round prospect yet Massie wasn't drafted till the 4th round. In that time, pretty much every single team passed on him at least once and most of them twice. Instead of the fans wondering why Kieper had this kid rated so high, they all seem to wonder why their team passed on such a highly rated prospect. Apparently the idea that the pros might see this kid has a 4th rounder, not a 2nd rounder hasn't occurred to anyone and all because the great Mel Kieper said he was a 2nd rounder.

Nope, sorry. From where I sit, the system works fine if we are talking about the NFL draft evaluation process. The media stuff seems equal parts good stuff and the fans feeding the bears in the park.

ok then...pls enlighten me on what process he employs (just the facts): who he talks to....what data he uses.....how good that data is....whether he looks at tapes (just like the coaches - and whether this is a learnable skill)...what sort of computerized capabilities he has, etc., etc. I can save you some time - YOU DON'T KNOW. you're doing the same thing you accuse him of doing!!!

I get it. You don't like coming onto a board where fans react to picks in emotional ways (i.e., disturb the "good vibes"). cool. I understand this when I wear your shoes.

and...as an aside...your logic has a flaw in it. every team in creation may see Massie as a first rounder for all we know. but their decision process includes factors/strategies other than what round someone should be drafted in. you're trying to spin the idea that the round someone is drafted in reflects actual "value", worth, whatever scale you are thinking...for all teams. that's why I pre-empted some retorts on the grade the draft thread by noting I understood the Skins draft from the perspective of a play action, bootleg, roll-outs, etc., scheme. so if your point is that player rankings are too gross an evaluation that might not have merit relative to team strategies - yea....there's merit in that. but that doesn't undercut the validity of player rankings in and of themselves.

again...everything you have posted suggests to me that your real gripe is how fans use the information/analysis.

 

[Jimbo]

Strange how everyone is down on Kiper. The guy has been doing this his whole life. He's basically a scout who watches a ton of film because he has so much at his disposal. He's paid to grade these guys and do these mocks but so are the scouts for the 32 teams. Do you think they all agree on the same players?

Sorry, but I've always liked Mel because he was the first TV draft pundit way back in the early days of ESPN. I respect his opinions. Blame ESPN for the dog & pony show that the draft became to be although I do like the competition between Mel & McShay because it gives this whole thing an edge.

OK.....rant off.

After the post-draft hangover, I decided to go back and watch more of the highlights of our draftees. I'll bump it from a C- to a C+ after watching more of Morris and Crawford. I still think we could have gotten better talent, especially JMJ over Robinson. I'm still not sure how well McRibeus translates to the ZBS since he seems kinda slow-footed from what I've seen. He looks to be a little more of a mauler but maybe we need a couple of those guys for some of these NFC East games.

As for Cousins, he might be a good backup but I really don't want to get into ALL the reasons I don't like this pick. Most of them you can find from other naysayers. I just can't spin it in a positive light that I would agree with.

 

[Bulldog]

I agree in part. Ever since Shanahan came here there has been a lot of apprehension over the evaluation of OL and especially the draft picks.

It's clear that the power blockers that Allen, Gibbs and even Turner looked for are NOT the prototype of what Shanahan looks for.

Yet, fans continue to point to a guy like Gettis at 6'2 and 295 and say he was a wasted pick because he is too small or not strong enough at the point of attack.

Shanahan counters that he likes Gettis because of his first step, lateral quickness, intelligence and versatility.

So, it seems clear in some regards there is a disconnect.

And that goes to Kiper and some of the draftniks who like us grew up looking for guys suited to a traditional power rushing and blocking scheme.

Gettis and other Shanahan OL may be picked in Round 4 or 5 whereas the 'draft' grade on these guys is Round 6, because the 'watchers' are looking for other factors to weigh in the grade.

Ergo, the circular argument of those pro and con as neither side will convince the other because they are looking at the players through different colored glasses.

 

[Boone]

I think both you and Neo make some good points. Ultimately - without putting the predictions and ultimate results of a guy like Kiper, and real scouts/GMs up side by side, there's no way of knowing how much value 'experience' brings, vs. 'information'. I don't know how often a guy like Kiper is right and how often he's wrong and how that stacks up against the real 'experts'. And I doubt anyone else does either.

I get it. You don't like coming onto a board where fans react to picks in emotional ways (i.e., disturb the "good vibes"). cool. I understand this when I wear your shoes.

Not your best argument - and I'll leave it at that.

 

[fansince62]

I agree in part. Ever since Shanahan came here there has been a lot of apprehension over the evaluation of OL and especially the draft picks.

It's clear that the power blockers that Allen, Gibbs and even Turner looked for are NOT the prototype of what Shanahan looks for.

Yet, fans continue to point to a guy like Gettis at 6'2 and 295 and say he was a wasted pick because he is too small or not strong enough at the point of attack.

Shanahan counters that he likes Gettis because of his first step, lateral quickness, intelligence and versatility.

So, it seems clear in some regards there is a disconnect.

And that goes to Kiper and some of the draftniks who like us grew up looking for guys suited to a traditional power rushing and blocking scheme.

Gettis and other Shanahan OL may be picked in Round 4 or 5 whereas the 'draft' grade on these guys is Round 6, because the 'watchers' are looking for other factors to weigh in the grade.

Ergo, the circular argument of those pro and con as neither side will convince the other because they are looking at the players through different colored glasses.

a subtle observation and you are correct. I would only add that many of the factors can also overlap. Mayock and the rest know Shanahan runs a ZBS scheme. the guys on NFL radio...who I think have some of the best insights.....provide these nuances. so...there are media types looking at these things. my intent...originally...was to introduce a couple simple ideas: the Kipers of the world do have a process - it's not just guessing; they provide a service fans obviously value. we as fans can take or leave it.

as an aside...while driving yesterday I listened to the NFL radio guys explain their "top 5 remaining players" and wondering repeatedly why these guys weren't being drafted. they went back and forth on insider personal information, UDFA versus late round strategies, team attitudes to late round picks, attitudes toward veterans on the roster...in short...a whole bunch of stuff other than just raw playing ability.

there are more things in heaven and Radio City Music Hall, BT, than are dreamt of in our fanboy imaginations!

 

[Neophyte]

My logic is really simple. I'd rather trust the pros in this case. Yeah, they make mistakes but if they make too many of them, they pay with their job (see Charlie Casserly and Matt Millen). Kiper will have a damn job with ESPN till he dies, no matter how many mistakes he makes.

Think of it the same way the Big Tuna thinks of wins and loses. "You are what your record is." Only in this case it is something more like "The player goes in the round he is worth." Sure, that doesn't mean you end your career there. Obviously Tom Brady is no longer a 6th round talent, just as Health Schuler did not leave the league as a 1st round talent. But on draft day they were what they were.

And yeah, I know there are a lot of other factors. It is very possible that the Skins thought LeRibeus was a second round talent but lacking a second round pick they had wait till the third to take him. Or that they had both LeRibeus and Cousins pegged as 3rd rounders but LeRibeus was higher on the board or Guard was viewed as a bigger need than backup QB.

But none of that changes the fact that Mel saying some guy is a second rounder doesn't make it so. And just because Mel says a guy will help your program doesn't mean he will, or that the team doesn't think someone else will help more.

Mel is working in a vacuum, with the draft as his only focus, as are many of these guys. Teams work with the big picture which includes a lot of other factors, many of which I am sure aren't even known to anyone outside the organization.

As for player rankings, yeah, I think once you get past a certain point they a bunch of bunk. This year there were 6 players put in that top, elite tier. After that there seemed to be another 3 dozen or so that were considered a step down from them. After that point, I think it gets a lot harder to quantify them and becomes much more "system" oriented.

And yes, my gripe is somewhat with how fans use the analysis, or rather the level of trust the put in that analysis.

 

[Bulldog]

unfortunately, Redskins fans have become like Jets fans or Dolphins fans, who were raised to doubt any moves their team makes are going to end up being the right ones.

people are so negative it's really unbelievable.

you have some fans reacting to the pick of Cousins with vitriol like 'there goes the chance to add depth in the draft' or 'making this pick puts the overall grade of the draft at a C-"

On ES, fans on the draft day postings were advocating for Massie way ahead of where he was ultimately taken based on what Kiper said was the 'best available'.

But that was his judgment. Evidently, 32 OL coaches who gave input into their teams draft boards, disagreed.

 

[NavyDave]

With Griffin B+.

What gets me is the sniveling about picking Cousins to be our 3rd QB this year and eventually the backup in 2013. Should we just wait until next year to develop a rookie QB in the system after not resigning Sexy Rexy?

The problem is that the iggles and cowpokes have potential A++ and A draft grades respectively.

 

[Boone]

I think another way to look at it (again, in the absence of some comprehensive assessment of accuracy done long-term) is that drafting future NFL players is, at best, educated guess-work. Looked at from that vantage point, the argument simply becomes 'who makes the best guesses?'. I do think Neo is over-stating his case, that if 'the experts' were so much better at evaluating talent and making their guesses than guys like Kiper, guys like Kiper wouldn't have a job for long. Both the media and football 'experts' miss as often as they hit (at least from my vantage point). The other thing missing in all this discussion is the recognition that the draft is not an end point - how young players develop and whether or not they succeed depends on too many factors to list. Not every player future is pre-determined based on talent level. Timing, support, health, even luck play a part. I have no doubt that, looking at just potential, talent, and past performances, lots of picks fail to result in long-term starters. That's not necessarily because they were crappy, ill-advised picks. It can fail to happen for a hundred different reasons.

 

[fansince62]

But that was his judgment. Evidently, 32 OL coaches who gave input into their teams draft boards, disagreed.

same logic mistake. they may have had other priorities.