I agree that Shanny overestimated the talent on the roster. If he did not, I don't think he would be here right now. I think that holds true for any veteran HC when considering a new team. You will not see Fisher going to a bottom dweller next year.
If we have a worse year, I do not think Snyder will fire him, even if we do not win a game. If this was five to ten years ago, I would say yes, he is as good as gone. I seriously think Snyder has changed his philosophy, at least for the short term. Time will tell. He has to know that if Bruce Allen and Mike Shannahan are fired, no one of any importance would ever come here again. I truely belive that he knows that.
He has admitted to making a mistake with Marty. He has even gone as far as to apologize to Marty and offered his plane for Schott's family emergencies. The two have made amends.
Gibbs went backwards in 2006 and he was not fired. I think Snyder thinks of Shanny slightly less than Gibbs, but in very very high regard. I think he will get the Joe Gibbs treatment from Snyder. Same goes for Allen.
I think these two will get at least five years, if not more. In fact Snyder was already on record saying that Shannahan has as long as he needs. He could retire as a Skin. I believe him. They had a relationship before he came to DC. Allen, well his lineage speaks for itself. Snyder knows the implications of firing these two.
If Allen, and Shanny gamble and lose out, they will still have a job next year. But, I do not think it will happen. Shanny knows the implications it will have on the mental makeup of the team. It could be disastorous. As Shannahan has said: 'this team needs to learn how to win.' Losing out on purpose would be counter productive.
However, I do not put it past this organization to trade all of it's worth to draft Luck. If we have a full compliment of picks, plus extras, I could see almost all of those going to whoever has the first pick in next years draft. I have read rumors that Shanny is super high on Luck.