Oceana will absolutely be on the BRAC list next go around. The last round, word got out that Oceana was going on the list, so the city went above and beyond on a media blitz and on their knees begging to keep Oceana. When the heads of the committee were in town, they said encroachment was out of control, the building well within crash zones was completely unacceptable, and there was too much the city would have to do for Oceana to stay.
So the city decided to go all out and promise the world to keep Oceana. Problem is, they didn't keep up their end of the bargain. Since that close call with BRAC, the city has built TWO schools inside crash zones. The new Linkhorn Park Elementary and the new Lynnhaven Middle School. That's 3 too many in my book. Also, the encroachment around the fences of Oceana has not only not stopped, it's gotten worse. Oceana Blvd, Old Virginia Beach Blvd and the NAS end of First Colonial Rd have all been widened, and to nobody's surprise, building permits have been issued and buildings and houses have gone up.
There was a large parcel of land that one of my former customers owned. It was a 4.5 acre lot off of Laskin Rd, very close to where the jet crashed. The city paid him over $10 million for the land, promising Oceana that it would be kept clear since it was in the crash zone. So what do they do instead? They give pink slips to half of the school employees and all first year teachers, steal $40 million from the school board, and immediately begin development of a walk around open shopping center for tourists. These are things that will not appear on Google Earth, but I will gladly provide pictures if anyone wants to see how absurd this crap is.
The city of Virginia Beach has a power problem. They have always done whatever they want, with absolutely no recourse for their actions. Several times, just since I have been of age to vote, there have been a dozen referendums put to vote. Nearly all were overwhelmingly voted against by the citizens. By wide margins of 80-90%, and the city said screw it and went against the vote every time. Light Rail is another example. 70% of the residents are strongly against it, but the city has already begun allocating the estimated $800 million it will cost to extend it from Norfolk to the Oceanfront.
Because of this, and because BRAC let them slide last round, they continued on their power trip. They continued to ignore the BRAC requirements. The continue to this day to encroach. They continue to be defiant in the face of everybody. This time, BRAC will make them pay. And they should. I, along with a lot of people I have talked to around here both Navy and civilian, are fully expecting Oceana to go on the list. Obviously nobody know what BRAC will decide, so nobody pretends to, but even accounts by local newscasters will show that anything short of an Oceana closure would be a complete shock to the entire city.
The thing is, this accident will not be the cause, the other factors I listed are very damning. I just believe the crash will be the straw that broke the camel's back.
Here is a very interesting graphic of the crash zones around Oceana overlayed on top of a google map. If you zoom in and switch to satellite view, you can see just how bad it has gotten. The crash zones are supposed to have very little to no residential development as per the agreement with the Navy for civilian safety. But almost every single crash zone, including the highest risk, have development in them.
http://hamptonroads.com/2012/04/map-where-jet-went-down-oceana-crash-zones
And here is the info from 2005 when Oceana went on the BRAC list and we begged their way off through empty promises. Very few promises were met, and most of the ones that were met were reneged on.
http://www.bracresponse.com/
Just one very interesting thing I can point out in those maps.......look at APZ1 to the northeast of the runway and look for Sykes Ave. On the left side of Sykes Ave, there are 16 large homes that were built in 2007 and 2008 (which can be confirmed on Zillow). One of the deals Virginia Beach made with BRAC in 2005 was that not only would there be no new development in APZ1, but that the land and homes would be bought up and condemned. Rather than stick to their agreement, the city granted a permit for new residential development on previously undeveloped wooded land. 2 and 3 years after submitting their proposals to BRAC to keep Oceana. And this was just what jumped out at me immediately. It is like that in all the zones. Nothing has been done by the city, and every promise has been broken. Oceana will be on the next list, as it should, and Virginia Beach will be a ghost town compared to where it sits now. And I am perfectly happy with that. Not because I have anything against the Navy, because I absolutely don't, but because I despise how Virginia Beach treats the military and the residents in favor of their own money making agendas and tourism. They need to learn the harsh lesson that without the Navy, Virginia Beach is nothing.